Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

On Globalization and the Growth of Governments

This paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size of government, both theoretically and empirically. We show that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels: (1) a terms of trade externality, whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation and (2) the demand for insurance, whereby trade raises risk and public transfers. We provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms. First, we show how their relative strength depends on a key parameter, the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Second, while the terms of trade externality leads to inefficiently large governments, the increase in public spending due to the demand for insurance is optimal. We show that large volumes of trade may result in welfare losses if the terms of trade externality is strong enough while small volumes of trade are always beneficial. Third, we provide new evidence on the positive association between openness and the size of government and test whether it is consistent with the terms of trade externality or the demand for insurance. Our findings suggest that the positive relationship is remarkably robust and that the terms of trade externality may be the driving force behind it, thus raising warnings that globalization may have led to inefficiently large governments.

Investimento Directo Estrangeiro em Cabo Verde

Os fluxos gerados pela economia de Cabo Verde, desde sempre, foram insuficientes para financiar o seu desenvolvimento, devido aos constrangimentos relativas à falta de recursos naturais, ao défice da balança comercial e à dimensão e fragmentação do território. Neste sentido, o capital estrangeiro surge como um recurso estratégico no desenvolvimento de CV, sendo um instrumento chave para colmatar alguns défices da economia cabo-verdiana. Logo a relevância do estudo proposto, que parte da questão: “Os incentivos e o ambiente oferecidos por CV têm sido suficientemente eficientes para atrair o IDE ou os números poderiam estar melhores?” Na sequência da revisão teórica e da literatura, a fim de obter a resposta à pergunta da pesquisa, analisamos os incentivos e o ambiente oferecidos aos investidores externos, através de instrumentos empreendidos pelo Governo de CV e analisamos a evolução dos fluxos do IDE no país, com especial atenção ao período 2000-2006, a partir de dados estatísticos. A análise posterior – percepção dos investidores externos em CV – deu lugar a um estudo qualitativo, a partir de um inquérito efectuado à uma amostragem probabilística de dez investidores externos, elegidos a partir de critérios fundamentados. Como resultado, observamos que os instrumentos empreendidos pelo Governo na atracção do IDE têm mais de dez anos de existência, não coincidindo com os maiores picos de IDE em CV ocorridos nos dois últimos anos. Observamos, ainda, que, de uma forma geral, os investidores externos privilegiam o mercado cabo-verdiano pela estabilidade política e económica. Por outro lado, apontam grandes constrangimentos a nível de infra-estrutura, ligações marítimas internas e aéreo para o exterior. As formalidades administrativas foram, também, objecto de avaliação negativa por parte dos investidores inquiridos. Posto isto, concluímos que, de uma forma geral, os instrumentos de atracção ao IDE em CV não são suficientemente eficazes para atender às necessidades dos investidores externos. Isto demonstra que há um interessante terreno a ser explorado. The cash flows generated Cape Verde’s economy, so far, have been insufficient to finance its development, due to constraints concerning the lack of natural resources, the trade balance deficit and the geographical distribution and dimension of the territory. In this context, foreign capital appears as a strategic resource for Cape Verde’s development. Foreign investment is a significant instrument to overcome some shortfalls of the cape-verdean economy. Therefore the relevance of this study which is based on the question: "The incentives offered by CV and the environment have been effective enough to attract FDI or the numbers could be better?" Following the literature and theoretical review, in order to get the answer to the research question, we have analyzed the stimulus and environment provided to foreign investors through instruments launched by the Government. We have analysed the evolution of FDI´s flows into the country, with particular focus on the period 2000 - 2006, from statistical data. The subsequent analysis - the perception of foreign investors in CV - produced a qualitative survey study, conduced on a sampling of ten foreign investors, selected from founded criterions. As a result, we observed that the instruments undertaken by the Government in attracting FDI are over than ten years old and the higher FDI peak took place during the two last years. It was noticed that foreign investors choose the cape-verdean market because of its politic and economic stability. On the other hand, foreign investors show great constraints in terms of infrastructure, internal maritime connection and international flight connections. The administrative formalities are also subject of a negative evaluation by the investors surveyed. We have eventually figured out that the attraction instruments for FDI in CV are not effective enough for the needs of foreign investors. This demonstrates that there is a interesting ground to be explored.

The effects of structural reforms on productivity and profitability enhancing reallocation: Evidence from Colombia

Estimates for the U.S. suggest that at least in some sectors productivity enhancing reallocationis the dominant factor in accounting for producitivity growth. An open question, particularlyrelevant for developing countries, is whether reallocation is always productivity enhancing. Itmay be that imperfect competition or other barriers to competitive environments imply that thereallocation process is not fully e?cient in these countries. Using a unique plant-levellongitudinal dataset for Colombia for the period 1982-1998, we explore these issues byexamining the interaction between market allocation, and productivity and profitability.Moreover, given the important trade, labor and financial market reforms in Colombia during theearly 1990's, we explore whether and how the contribution of reallocation changed over theperiod of study. Our data permit measurement of plant-level quantities and prices. Takingadvantage of the rich structure of our price data, we propose a sequential mehodology to estimateproductivity and demand shocks at the plant level. First, we estimate total factor productivity(TFP) with plant-level physical output data, where we use downstream demand to instrumentinputs. We then turn to estimating demand shocks and mark-ups with plant-level price data, usingTFP to instrument for output in the inversedemand equation. We examine the evolution of thedistributions of TFP and demand shocks in response to the market reforms in the 1990's. We findthat market reforms are associated with rising overall productivity that is largely driven byreallocation away from low- and towards highproductivity businesses. In addition, we find thatthe allocation of activity across businesses is less driven by demand factors after reforms. Wefind that the increase in aggregate productivity post-reform is entirely accounted for by theimproved allocation of activity.

Labor markets and monetary policy: A new-Keynesian model with unemployement

We construct a utility-based model of fluctuations, with nominal rigidities andunemployment, and draw its implications for the unemployment-inflation trade-off and for the conduct of monetary policy.We proceed in two steps. We first leave nominal rigidities aside. We show that,under a standard utility specification, productivity shocks have no effect onunemployment in the constrained efficient allocation. We then focus on theimplications of alternative real wage setting mechanisms for fluctuations in un-employment. We show the role of labor market frictions and real wage rigiditiesin determining the effects of productivity shocks on unemployment.We then introduce nominal rigidities in the form of staggered price setting byfirms. We derive the relation between inflation and unemployment and discusshow it is influenced by the presence of labor market frictions and real wagerigidities. We show the nature of the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment stabilization, and its dependence on labor market characteristics. We draw the implications for optimal monetary policy.

Peroxisome proliferator activated receptors: transcriptional regulators of adipogenesis, lipid metabolism and more....

The recent discovery of lipid-activatable transcription factors that regulate the genes controlling lipid metabolism and adipogenesis has provided insight into the way that organisms sense and respond to lipid levels. Identification of the signaling pathways in which these receptors are involved will help us to understand the control of energy balance and the molecular defects underlying its disorders.

Sovereign risk and secondary markets

Conventional wisdom views the problem of sovereign risk as one of insufficient penalties.Foreign creditors can only be repaid if the government enforces foreign debts. And this will onlyhappen if foreign creditors can effectively use the threat of imposing penalties to the country.Guided by this assessment of the problem, policy prescriptions to reduce sovereign risk havefocused on providing incentives for governments to enforce foreign debts. For instance, countriesmight want to favor increased trade ties and other forms of foreign dependence that make themvulnerable to foreign retaliation thereby increasing the costs of default penalties.

An experimental test of loss aversion and scale compatibility

This paper studies two important reasons why people violate procedure invariance, loss aversion and scale compatibility. The paper extends previous research on loss aversion and scale compatibility by studying loss aversion and scale compatibility simultaneously, by looking at a new decision domain, medical decision analysis, and by examining the effect of loss aversion and scale compatibility on "well-contemplated preferences." We find significant evidence both of loss aversion and scale compatibility. However, the sizes of the biases due to loss aversion and scale compatibility vary over trade-offs and most participants do not behave consistently according to loss aversion or scale compatibility. In particular, the effect of loss aversion in medical trade-offs decreases with duration. These findings are encouraging for utility measurement and prescriptive decision analysis. There appear to exist decision contexts in which the effects of loss aversion and scale compatibility can be minimized and utilities can be measured that do not suffer from these distorting factors.

Citrate- vs. acetate-based dialysate in bicarbonate haemodialysis: consequences on haemodynamics, coagulation, acid-base status, and electrolytes.

BACKGROUND: A concentrate for bicarbonate haemodialysis acidified with citrate instead of acetate has been marketed in recent years. The small amount of citrate used (one-fifth of the concentration adopted in regional anticoagulation) protects against intradialyser clotting while minimally affecting the calcium concentration. The aim of this study was to compare the impact of citrate- and acetate-based dialysates on systemic haemodynamics, coagulation, acid-base status, calcium balance and dialysis efficiency. METHODS: In 25 patients who underwent a total of 375 dialysis sessions, an acetate dialysate (A) was compared with a citrate dialysate with (C+) or without (C) calcium supplementation (0.25 mmol/L) in a randomised single-blind cross-over study. Systemic haemodynamics were evaluated using pulse-wave analysis. Coagulation, acid-base status, calcium balance and dialysis efficiency were assessed using standard biochemical markers. RESULTS: Patients receiving the citrate dialysate had significantly lower systolic blood pressure (BP) (-4.3 mmHg, p < 0.01) and peripheral resistances (PR) (-51 dyne.sec.cm-5, p < 0.001) while stroke volume was not increased. In hypertensive patients there was a substantial reduction in BP (-7.8 mmHg, p < 0.01). With the C+ dialysate the BP gap was less pronounced but the reduction in PR was even greater (-226 dyne.sec.cm-5, p < 0.001). Analyses of the fluctuations in PR and of subjective tolerance suggested improved haemodynamic stability with the citrate dialysate. Furthermore, an increase in pre-dialysis bicarbonate and a decrease in pre-dialysis BUN, post-dialysis phosphate and ionised calcium were noted. Systemic coagulation activation was not influenced by citrate. CONCLUSION: The positive impact on dialysis efficiency, acid-base status and haemodynamics, as well as the subjective tolerance, together indicate that citrate dialysate can significantly contribute to improving haemodialysis in selected patients.

Local Renal Circadian Clocks Control Fluid-Electrolyte Homeostasis and BP.

The circadian timing system is critically involved in the maintenance of fluid and electrolyte balance and BP control. However, the role of peripheral circadian clocks in these homeostatic mechanisms remains unknown. We addressed this question in a mouse model carrying a conditional allele of the circadian clock gene Bmal1 and expressing Cre recombinase under the endogenous Renin promoter (Bmal1(lox/lox)/Ren1(d)Cre mice). Analysis of Bmal1(lox/lox)/Ren1(d)Cre mice showed that the floxed Bmal1 allele was excised in the kidney. In the kidney, BMAL1 protein expression was absent in the renin-secreting granular cells of the juxtaglomerular apparatus and the collecting duct. A partial reduction of BMAL1 expression was observed in the medullary thick ascending limb. Functional analyses showed that Bmal1(lox/lox)/Ren1(d)Cre mice exhibited multiple abnormalities, including increased urine volume, changes in the circadian rhythm of urinary sodium excretion, increased GFR, and significantly reduced plasma aldosterone levels. These changes were accompanied by a reduction in BP. These results show that local renal circadian clocks control body fluid and BP homeostasis.

The sandstone-hosted Beverley uranium Deposit, Lake Frome Basin, South Australia: Mineralogy, geochemistry, and a time-constrained model for its genesis

The sandstone-hosted Beverley uranium deposit is located in terrestrial sediments in the Lake Frome basin in the North Flinders Ranges, South Australia. The deposit is 13 km from the U-rich Mesoproterozoic basement of the Mount Painter inlier, which is being uplifted 100 to 200 m above the basin by neotectonic activity that probably initiated in the early Pliocene. The mineralization was deposited mainly in organic matter-poor Miocene lacustrine sands and partly in the underlying reductive strata comprising organic matter-rich clays and silts. The bulk of the mineralization consists of coffinite and/or uraninite nodules, growing around Co-rich pyrite with an S isotope composition (delta S-34 = 1.0 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand), suggestive of an early diagenetic lacustrine origin. In contrast, authigenic sulfides in the bulk of the sediments have a negative S isotope signature (delta S-34 ranges from -26.2 to -35.5 parts per thousand), indicative of an origin via bacterially mediated sulfate reduction. Minor amounts of Zn-bearing native copper and native lead also support the presence of specific, reducing microenvironments in the ore zone. Small amounts of carnotite are associated with the coffinite ore and also occur beneath a paleosoil horizon overlying the uranium deposit. Provenance studies suggest that the host Miocene sediments were derived from the reworking of Early Cretaceous glacial or glaciolacustrine sediments ultimately derived from Paleozoic terranes in eastern Australia. In contrast, the overlying Pliocene strata were in part derived from the Mesoproterozoic basement inlier. Mass-balance and geochemical data confirm that granites of the Mount Painter domain were the ultimate source of U and BEE at Beverley. U-Pb dating of coffinite and carnotite suggest that the U mineralization is Pliocene (6.7-3.4 Ma). The suitability of the Beverley deposit for efficient mining via in situ leaching, and hence its economic value, are determined by the nature of the hosting sand unit, which provides the permeability and low reactivity required for high fluid flow and low chemical consumption. These favorable sedimentologic and geometrical features result from a complex conjunction of factors, including deposition in lacustrine shore environment, reworking of angular sands of glacial origin, deep Pliocene weathering, and proximity to an active fault exposing extremely U rich rocks.

Promoter recognition and activation by the global response regulator CbrB in Pseudomonas aeruginosa.

In Pseudomonas aeruginosa, the CbrA/CbrB two-component system is instrumental in the maintenance of the carbon-nitrogen balance and for growth on carbon sources that are energetically less favorable than the preferred dicarboxylate substrates. The CbrA/CbrB system drives the expression of the small RNA CrcZ, which antagonizes the repressing effects of the catabolite repression control protein Crc, an RNA-binding protein. Dicarboxylates appear to cause carbon catabolite repression by inhibiting the activity of the CbrA/CbrB system, resulting in reduced crcZ expression. Here we have identified a conserved palindromic nucleotide sequence that is present in upstream activating sequences (UASs) of promoters under positive control by CbrB and σ(54) RNA polymerase, especially in the UAS of the crcZ promoter. Evidence for recognition of this palindromic sequence by CbrB was obtained in vivo from mutational analysis of the crcZ promoter and in vitro from electrophoretic mobility shift assays using crcZ promoter fragments and purified CbrB protein truncated at the N terminus. Integration host factor (IHF) was required for crcZ expression. CbrB also activated the lipA (lipase) promoter, albeit less effectively, apparently by interacting with a similar but less conserved palindromic sequence in the UAS of lipA. As expected, succinate caused CbrB-dependent catabolite repression of the lipA promoter. Based on these results and previously published data, a consensus CbrB recognition sequence is proposed. This sequence has similarity to the consensus NtrC recognition sequence, which is relevant for nitrogen control.

NPAS2 as a transcriptional regulator of non-rapid eye movement sleep: genotype and sex interactions.

Because the transcription factor neuronal Per-Arnt-Sim-type signal-sensor protein-domain protein 2 (NPAS2) acts both as a sensor and an effector of intracellular energy balance, and because sleep is thought to correct an energy imbalance incurred during waking, we examined NPAS2's role in sleep homeostasis using npas2 knockout (npas2-/-) mice. We found that, under conditions of increased sleep need, i.e., at the end of the active period or after sleep deprivation (SD), NPAS2 allows for sleep to occur at times when mice are normally awake. Lack of npas2 affected electroencephalogram activity of thalamocortical origin; during non-rapid eye movement sleep (NREMS), activity in the spindle range (10-15 Hz) was reduced, and within the delta range (1-4 Hz), activity shifted toward faster frequencies. In addition, the increase in the cortical expression of the NPAS2 target gene period2 (per2) after SD was attenuated in npas2-/- mice. This implies that NPAS2 importantly contributes to the previously documented wake-dependent increase in cortical per2 expression. The data also revealed numerous sex differences in sleep; in females, sleep need accumulated at a slower rate, and REMS loss was not recovered after SD. In contrast, the rebound in NREMS time after SD was compromised only in npas2-/- males. We conclude that NPAS2 plays a role in sleep homeostasis, most likely at the level of the thalamus and cortex, where NPAS2 is abundantly expressed.

Vibration Training Elicits a Mixed Aerobic and Resistance-type Exercise in Sedentary Subjects

PURPOSE: We hypothesize that untrained subjects can benefit from a greater cardiovascular stimulation than trained athletes, resembling classical aerobic-type activity, in addition to eliciting strength gains.METHODS: 3 groups of male subjects, inactive (SED), endurance trained (END) and strength trained (STR) underwent fitness (VO2max) and lower-body strength tests (isokinetic). Subjects were submitted to a session of oscillating VT, composed of 3 exercises (isometric half-squat, dynamic squat, dynamic squat with added load), each of 3 minutes duration, and repeated at 3 vibration frequencies (20, 26 and 32 Hz). VO2, heart rate and Borg scale were monitored.RESULTS: 27 healthy subjects (10 SED, 9 END and 8 STR), mean age 24.5 (SED), 25.0 (STR) and 29.8 (END) were included. VO2max was significantly different as expected (47.9 vs. 52.9 vs. 63.9 mL?min-1?kg-1, resp. for SED, STR and END). Isokinetic dominant leg extensors strength was higher in STR (3.32 N?m?kg-1 vs. 2.60 and 2.74 in SED and END). During VT, peak oxygen consumption (% of VO2max) attained was 59.3 in SED, 50.8 in STR and 48.0 in END (P<0.001 between SED and other subjects). Peak heart rate (% of heart rate max) was 82.7 in SED, 80.4 in STR and 72.4 in END. In SED, dynamic exercises without extra load elicited 51.0 % of VO2max and 72.1 % of heart rate max, and perceived effort reached 15.1/20.CONCLUSIONS: VT is an unconventional type of exercise, known to enhance strength, bone density, balance and flexibility. Users are attracted by the relative passivity. In SED, VT elicits sufficient cardiovascular response to benefit overall fitness in addition to the strength effects. VT's higher acceptance as an exercise in sedentary people, compared to jogging or cycling, can lead to better adherence to physical activity. Although long-term effects of VT on health are not available, we believe this type of mixed aerobic and resistance-type exercise can be beneficial on multiple health parameters, especially cardiovascular health.

Distribution of metals exposure and associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study".

BACKGROUND: Metals are known endocrine disruptors and have been linked to cardiometabolic diseases via multiple potential mechanisms, yet few human studies have both the exposure variability and biologically-relevant phenotype data available. We sought to examine the distribution of metals exposure and potential associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study" (METS), a prospective cohort study designed to assess energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five countries at different stages of social and economic development. METHODS: Young adults (25-45 years) of African descent were enrolled (N = 500 from each site) in: Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the U.S.A. We randomly selected 150 blood samples (N = 30 from each site) to determine concentrations of selected metals (arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury) in a subset of participants at baseline and to examine associations with cardiometabolic risk factors. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range) metal concentrations (μg/L) were: arsenic 8.5 (7.7); cadmium 0.01 (0.8); lead 16.6 (16.1); and mercury 1.5 (5.0). There were significant differences in metals concentrations by: site location, paid employment status, education, marital status, smoking, alcohol use, and fish intake. After adjusting for these covariates plus age and sex, arsenic (OR 4.1, 95% C.I. 1.2, 14.6) and lead (OR 4.0, 95% C.I. 1.6, 9.6) above the median values were significantly associated with elevated fasting glucose. These associations increased when models were further adjusted for percent body fat: arsenic (OR 5.6, 95% C.I. 1.5, 21.2) and lead (OR 5.0, 95% C.I. 2.0, 12.7). Cadmium and mercury were also related with increased odds of elevated fasting glucose, but the associations were not statistically significant. Arsenic was significantly associated with increased odds of low HDL cholesterol both with (OR 8.0, 95% C.I. 1.8, 35.0) and without (OR 5.9, 95% C.I. 1.5, 23.1) adjustment for percent body fat. CONCLUSIONS: While not consistent for all cardiometabolic disease markers, these results are suggestive of potentially important associations between metals exposure and cardiometabolic risk. Future studies will examine these associations in the larger cohort over time.