Effect Of Different Hydrological Model Structures On The Assimilation Of Distributed Uncertain Observations

The reliable evaluation of the flood forecasting is a crucial problem for assessing flood risk and consequent damages. Different hydrological models (distributed, semi-distributed or lumped) have been proposed in order to deal with this issue. The choice of the proper model structure has been investigated by many authors and it is one of the main sources of uncertainty for a correct evaluation of the outflow hydrograph. In addition, the recent increasing of data availability makes possible to update hydrological models as response of real-time observations. For these reasons, the aim of this work it is to evaluate the effect of different structure of a semi-distributed hydrological model in the assimilation of distributed uncertain discharge observations. The study was applied to the Bacchiglione catchment, located in Italy. The first methodological step was to divide the basin in different sub-basins according to topographic characteristics. Secondly, two different structures of the semi-distributed hydrological model were implemented in order to estimate the outflow hydrograph. Then, synthetic observations of uncertain value of discharge were generated, as a function of the observed and simulated value of flow at the basin outlet, and assimilated in the semi-distributed models using a Kalman Filter. Finally, different spatial patterns of sensors location were assumed to update the model state as response of the uncertain discharge observations. The results of this work pointed out that, overall, the assimilation of uncertain observations can improve the hydrologic model performance. In particular, it was found that the model structure is an important factor, of difficult characterization, since can induce different forecasts in terms of outflow discharge. This study is partly supported by the FP7 EU Project WeSenseIt.

Flood Risk Management In Small Urban River Using A Sustainable Urban Drainage System: Wortley Beck, Leeds, Uk

In the UK, urban river basins are particularly vulnerable to flash floods due to short and intense rainfall. This paper presents potential flood resilience approaches for the highly urbanised Wortley Beck river basin, south west of the Leeds city centre. The reach of Wortley Beck is approximately 6km long with contributing catchment area of 30km2 that drain into the River Aire. Lower Wortley has experienced regular flooding over the last few years from a range of sources, including Wortley Beck and surface and ground water, that affects properties both upstream and downstream of Farnley Lake as well as Wortley Ring Road. This has serious implications for society, the environment and economy activity in the City of Leeds. The first stage of the study involves systematically incorporating Wortley Beck’s land scape features on an Arc-GIS platform to identify existing green features in the region. This process also enables the exploration of potential blue green features: green spaces, green roofs, water retention ponds and swales at appropriate locations and connect them with existing green corridors to maximize their productivity. The next stage is involved in developing a detailed 2D urban flood inundation model for the Wortley Beck region using the CityCat model. CityCat is capable to model the effects of permeable/impermeable ground surfaces and buildings/roofs to generate flood depth and velocity maps at 1m caused by design storm events. The final stage of the study is involved in simulation of range of rainfall and flood event scenarios through CityCat model with different blue green features. Installation of other hard engineering individual property protection measures through water butts and flood walls are also incorporated in the CityCat model. This enables an integrated sustainable flood resilience strategy for this region.

Real-Time Control Of Floods Along The Demer River, Belgium, By Means Of MPC In Combination With GA And A Fast Conceptual River Model

Climate model projections show that climate change will further increase the risk of flooding in many regions of the world. There is a need for climate adaptation, but building new infrastructure or additional retention basins has its limits, especially in densely populated areas where open spaces are limited. Another solution is the more efficient use of the existing infrastructure. This research investigates a method for real-time flood control by means of existing gated weirs and retention basins. The method was tested for the specific study area of the Demer basin in Belgium but is generally applicable. Today, retention basins along the Demer River are controlled by means of adjustable gated weirs based on fixed logic rules. However, because of the high complexity of the system, only suboptimal results are achieved by these rules. By making use of precipitation forecasts and combined hydrological-hydraulic river models, the state of the river network can be predicted. To fasten the calculation speed, a conceptual river model was used. The conceptual model was combined with a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm and a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The MPC algorithm predicts the state of the river network depending on the positions of the adjustable weirs in the basin. The GA generates these positions in a semi-random way. Cost functions, based on water levels, were introduced to evaluate the efficiency of each generation, based on flood damage minimization. In the final phase of this research the influence of the most important MPC and GA parameters was investigated by means of a sensitivity study. The results show that the MPC-GA algorithm manages to reduce the total flood volume during the historical event of September 1998 by 46% in comparison with the current regulation. Based on the MPC-GA results, some recommendations could be formulated to improve the logic rules.

Uma metodologia multicritério construtivista de avaliação de alternativas para o planejamento de recursos hídricos de bacias hidrográficas

De acordo com a Lei Federal n° 9.433/97, que instituiu a Política e o Sistema Nacional de Gerenciamento dos Recursos Hídricos, o planejamento de recursos hídricos deve ter um enfoque sistêmico, de uso múltiplo das águas e descentralização das decisões, adotando a bacia hidrográfica como unidade de gestão. Dentro deste contexto, de descentralização de decisões e participação de grandes grupos no processo de tomada de decisão sobre a gestão dos recursos hídricos, os procedimentos clássicos de avaliação de alternativas para planejar o uso, controle e proteção das águas tornam-se limitados por sua impossibilidade de incluir outros critérios, além da minimização dos custos ou da maximização dos benefícios, e por não considerarem a subjetividade inerente ao processo de tomada de decisão, que corresponde ao sistema de valores dos atores envolvidos na tomada de decisões. Assim, este trabalho apresenta um Método Multicritério em Apoio à Decisão para o planejamento de recursos hídricos de bacias hidrográficas, que além de incorporar vários critérios na avaliação de alternativas, por adotar uma abordagem construtivista, propicia a participação de todos os atores envolvidos no processo de tomada de decisão. Para testar a aplicabilidade prática do método proposto foi escolhida a bacia hidrográfica do rio dos Sinos, localizada no estado do Rio Grande do Sul, sendo construído um Modelo Multicritério de Avaliação de Alternativas para o Plano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio dos Sinos. Os resultados do trabalho demonstraram a robustez da proposta que, ao possibilitar a geração e avaliação de alternativas para o Plano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio dos Sinos, a partir de diversos critérios, e levando em conta o sistema de valores dos decisores, se constituiu em um diferencial capaz de conferir maior legitimidade ao processo de tomada de decisões sobre o planejamento de recursos hídricos de bacias hidrográficas.

Os desafios à implantação do modelo de gestão dos recursos hídricos estabelecidos pela lei 9.4333

This article objectified to identify the main challenges to the implementation of the system of management of the water features established by Law 9.433/97, in special the restrictive factors to the installation of Committees of Basin and Hidric Resources Agencies and the challenges to the implementation and management of the basin plans, of the charge and the grant for the hydric resources uses. The analysis is based in the South Paraiba river case, beyond the experience in other countries. The reflections on the gotten information had led to the conclusion of that the magnifying and change of the institucional base of decision, the integration of the entities of water features, the institucional qualification and technique, the social mobilization, the decentralization of the financial features, the integration of the management in frontier basins and the implementation of management systems based in the consensus are the biggest challenges to the execulte of the federal law.

Águas: campo organizacional poder e sistema de informações. O CEIVAP como protótipo da gestão de recursos hídricos no Brasil

O modelo descentralizado, participativo e integrado de gestão de recursos hídricos que se ordena em função das bacias hidrográficas demanda um grande esforço de todos os atores envolvidos na gestão. Para compreendê-lo é essencial considerar os antecedentes históricos, os marcos legais, o arcabouço jurídico e o ferramental tecnológico moderno (sistemas de informações) que definem a representação das esferas governamentais, dos usuários de grande porte e da sociedade civil na gestão. Utilizando a teoria institucional, o conceito de campo organizacional e a tecnologia da informação, considerando sempre o poder como variável central da disputas sociais, este trabalho buscou, interpretando os discursos das entrevistas em profundidade e usando a literatura disponível, a descrição do desenvolvimento e da formação do campo formado em função do tema da gestão das águas. A escolha da teoria institucional permite obter uma visão mais abrangente do estudo das organizações, incorporando temas como valores e legitimação como elementos de sucesso das organizações em um campo. o trabalho conclui que há um campo organizacional da gestão de recursos hídricos nos moldes proposto pela teoria utilizada. Neste campo há questões centrais que dirigem a geração de valores. Este campo se completa com atores periféricos, representantes de discursos ainda não plenamente incorporados, mas que já demandam resposta dos atores centrais. A tecnologia, através dos sistemas de informações, ainda não contribui para qualquer alteração significativa na distribuição de poder no campo.

Estado e participação pública em questões ambientais urbanas

Nessa tese relaciona-se a problemática ambiental com a problemática social tal como esta se apresenta em áreas urbanas de sociedades do Sul, particularmente no Brasil. Faz-se um esforço de não confundí-las, apontando suas especificidades e as possibilidades, que a primeira traduz, no sentido de repensar, em termos teóricos, o planejamento e a gestão das cidades. Discute-se o papel do Estado capitalista nessas sociedades, enquanto mediador de conflitos sociais resultantes de políticas públicas excludentes. Discute-se ainda o significado, limites e possibilidades da participação pública na definição e/ou implementação de tais políticas e o papel que a educação ambiental pode assumir neste sentido. Apresenta-se dois estudos de caso tratando da degradação ambiental de bacias hidrográficas localizadas na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, nos quais a participação pública tem se dado em algum nível, contribuindo para a tomada de decisões. Num caso, esta se dá numa conjuntura política onde as decisões tecnocráticas são determinantes; em outro, está relacionada com a tentativa, por parte do Estado, de implantação de uma gestão mais democrática, que implica no diálogo deste com as organizações civis visando a realização de negociações.

Diversidade Ictiofaunística e Ecologia reprodutiva de uma espécie nativa de peixe da Bacia Piranhas-Assu, RN

The Caatinga biome is rich in endemic fish species fauna. The present study the results of fish faunal surveys conducted in the hydrographic basin of Piranhas-Assu of the Brazilian Caatinga biome. The fish samples collected were distributed in four orders (Characiformes, Perciformes, Siluriformes and Synbranchiformes), 11 families (Characidae, Curimatidae, Auchenipteridae, Anostomidae, Prochilodontidae, Erythrinidae, Cichlidae, Sciaenidae, Heptapteridae, Loricariidae, Synbranchidae) and 22 species, of which 17 are endemic and five have been introduced from other basins. The order Characiformes was the most representative in number of species (46,35% ) followed by Perciformes (35,38%), Siluriformes (17,44%) and Synbranchiformes (0,5%). The Nile tilapia, Oreochomis niloticus, the only exotic species, was most expressive in number of individuals (24.92%) followed by the native species piau preto, Leporinus piau (18,77 %). Considering the relative frequency of occurrence of the 22 species, 13 were constant, five were accessory and four were occasional. This study investigated the reproductive ecology of an endemic fish black piau, Leporinus piau from the Marechal Dutra reservoir, Acari, Rio Grande do Norte. Samplings were done on a monthly basis from January to December 2009, and a total of 211 specimens were captured. The environmental parameters such as rainfall, temperature, pH, electrical conductivity and dissolved oxygen of water were recorded. The sampled population showed a slight predominance of males (55%), however females were larger and heavier. Both sexes of L. piau showed positive allometric growth, indicating a higher increase of weight than length. The first sexual maturation of males occurred at smaller size, with 16.5 cm in total length than females (20.5 cm). During the reproductive period, the condition factor and gonadosomatic index (GSI) of L. piau were negatively correlated. This species has large oocytes with a high mean fecundity of 54.966 with synchronous oocyte development and total spawning

Avaliação da influência do nacl em pastas de cimento portland para cimentação de poços de petróleo em zonas evaporíticas

One of the major current challenges for oilwell companies is the extraction of oil from evaporitic zones, also known as pre-salt basins. Deep reservoirs are found under thick salt layers formed from the evaporation of sea water. Salt layers seal the flow of oil from underneath rock formations, which store hydrocarbons and increase the probability of success in oil and gas exploration. Oilwells are cemented using Portland-based slurries to promote mechanical stability and zonal isolation. For pre-salt oilwells, NaCl must be added to saturate the cement slurries, however, the presence of salt in the composition of slurries affects their overall behavior. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of the addition of 5 to 25% NaCl on selected properties of Portland-based slurries. A series of tests were carried out to assess the rheological behavior, thickening time, free water and ultrassonic compressive strength. In addition, the slurries were also characterized by thermal analysis, X ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. The results showed that the addition of NaCl affected the thickening time of the slurries. NaCl contents up to 10% shortened the thickening time of the slurries. On the other hand, concentrations in excess of 20% not only extended the thickening time, but also reduced the strength of hardened slurries. The addition of NaCl resulted in the formation of a different crystalline phase called Friedel´s salt, where free chlorine is bonded to tricalcium aluminate

Influência da adição do NaCl e KCl em sistemas de pastas contendo sílica para poços de petróleo em zonas evaporíticas e carbonáticas

One of the major challenges faced nowadays by oil companies is the exploration of pre-salt basins. Thick salt layers were formed in remote ages as a consequence of the evaporation of sea water containing high concentrations of NaCl and KCl. Deep reservoirs can be found below salt formations that prevent the outflow of oil, thus improving the success in oil prospection. The slurries used in the cement operations of salt layers must be adequate to the properties of those specific formations. At the same time, their resulting properties are highly affected by the contamination of salt in the fresh state. It is t herefore important to address the effects of the presence of salt in the cement slurries in order to assure that the well sheath is able to fulfill its main role to provide zonal isolation and mechanical stability. In this scenario, the objective of the present thesis work was to evaluate the effect of the presence of NaCl and KCl premixed with cement and 40% silica flour on the behavior of cement slurries. Their effect in the presence of CO2 was also investigated. The rheological behavior of slurries containing NaCl and KCl was evaluated along with their mechanical strength. Thermal and microstructural tests were also carried out. The results revealed that the presence of NaCl and KCl affected the pozzolanic activity of silica flour, reducing the strength of the hardened slurries containing salt. Friedel´s salt was formed as a result of the bonding between free Cl- and tricalcium aluminate. The presence of CO2 also contributed to the degradation of the slurries as a result of a process of carbonation/bicarbonataion

Aplicação de termogravimetria acoplada à espectrometria de massas para caracterização de petróleo e determinação da curva de evolução de gás sulfídrico

With the new discoveries of oil and gas, the exploration of fields in various geological basins, imports of other oils and the development of alternative fuels, more and more research labs have evaluated and characterized new types of petroleum and derivatives. Therefore the investment in new techniques and equipment in the samples analysis to determine their physical and chemical properties, their composition, possible contaminants, especification of products, among others, have multiplied in last years, so development of techniques for rapid and efficient characterization is extremely important for a better economic recovery of oil. Based on this context, this work has two main objectives. The first one is to characterize the oil by thermogravimetry coupled with mass spectrometry (TG-MS), and correlate these results with from other types of characterizations data previously informed. The second is to use the technique to develop a methodology to obtain the curve of evaluation of hydrogen sulfide gas in oil. Thus, four samples were analyzed by TG-MS, and X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF). TG results can be used to indicate the nature of oil, its tendency in coke formation, temperatures of distillation and cracking, and other features. It was observed in MS evaluations the behavior of oil main compounds with temperature, the points where the volatilized certain fractions and the evaluation gas analysis of sulfide hydrogen that is compared with the evaluation curve obtained by Petrobras with another methodology

Estudo paramétrico da injeção de vapor em reservatórios delgados

Exploration of heavy oil reservoirs is increasing every year in worldwide, because the discovery of light oil reservoirs is becoming increasingly rare. This fact has stimulated the research with the purpose of becoming viable, technically and economically, the exploration of such oil reserves. In Brazil, in special in the Northeast region, there is a large amount of heavy oil reservoir, where the recovery by the so called secondary methods Water injection or gas injection is inefficient or even impracticable in some reservoirs with high viscosity oils (heavy oils). In this scenario, steam injection appears as an interesting alternative for recover of these kinds of oil reservoirs. Its main mechanism consists of oil viscosity reduction through steam injection, increasing reservoir temperature. This work presents a parametric simulation study of some operational and reservoir variables that had influence on oil recovery in thin reservoirs typically found in Brazilian Northeast Basins, that use the steam injection as improved oil recovery method. To carry out simulations, it was used the commercial software STARS (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator) from CMG (Computer Modeling Group) version 2007.11. Reservoirs variables studied were horizontal permeability, vertical and horizontal permeability ratio, water zone and pay zone thickness ratio, pay zone thickness and thermal conductivity of the rock. Whereas, operational parameters studied were distance between wells and steam injection rate. Results showed that reservoir variables that had more influence on oil recovery were horizontal permeability and water zone and pay zone thickness ratio. In relation to operational variables, results showed that short distances between wells and low steam injection rates improved oil recovery

Estudo paramétrico da recuperação de petróleo pesado por aquecimento eletromagnético resistivo

Electrical resistive heating (ERH) is a thermal method used to improve oil recovery. It can increase oil rate and oil recovery due to temperature increase caused by electrical current passage through oil zone. ERH has some advantage compared with well-known thermal methods such as continuous steam flood, presenting low-water production. This method can be applied to reservoirs with different characteristics and initial reservoir conditions. Commercial software was used to test several cases using a semi-synthetic homogeneous reservoir with some characteristics as found in northeast Brazilian basins. It was realized a sensitivity analysis of some reservoir parameters, such as: oil zone, aquifer presence, gas cap presence and oil saturation on oil recovery and energy consumption. Then it was tested several cases studying the electrical variables considered more important in the process, such as: voltage, electrical configurations and electrodes positions. Energy optimization by electrodes voltage levels changes and electrical settings modify the intensity and the electrical current distribution in oil zone and, consequently, their influences in reservoir temperature reached at some regions. Results show which reservoir parameters were significant in order to improve oil recovery and energy requirement in for each reservoir. Most significant parameters on oil recovery and electrical energy delivered were oil thickness, presence of aquifer, presence of gas cap, voltage, electrical configuration and electrodes positions. Factors such as: connate water, water salinity and relative permeability to water at irreducible oil saturation had low influence on oil recovery but had some influence in energy requirements. It was possible to optimize energy consumption and oil recovery by electrical variables. Energy requirements can decrease by changing electrodes voltages during the process. This application can be extended to heavy oil reservoirs of high depth, such as offshore fields, where nowadays it is not applicable any conventional thermal process such as steam flooding

Atenuação de ruídos coerentes utilizando decomposição em modos empíricos

The seismic processing technique has the main objective to provide adequate picture of geological structures from subsurface of sedimentary basins. Among the key steps of this process is the enhancement of seismic reflections by filtering unwanted signals, called seismic noise, the improvement of signals of interest and the application of imaging procedures. The seismic noise may appear random or coherent. This dissertation will present a technique to attenuate coherent noise, such as ground roll and multiple reflections, based on Empirical Mode Decomposition method. This method will be applied to decompose the seismic trace into Intrinsic Mode Functions. These functions have the properties of being symmetric, with local mean equals zero and the same number of zero-crossing and extremes. The developed technique was tested on synthetic and real data, and the results were considered encouraging

Avaliação de características morfométricas na relação solo-superfície da Bacia Hidrográfica do Córrego Rico, Jaboticabal (SP)

Com a análise das características morfométricas procura-se entender a relação solo-superfície, em decorrência dos processos erosivos sobre estruturas e litologias variadas. Neste trabalho, objetivou-se avaliar as características morfométricas do padrão de drenagem e do relevo em microbacias hidrográficas de 2ª ordem de magnitude, em Latossolo Vermelho-Escuro e Argissolo Vermelho-Amarelo, com vistas ao planejamento agroambiental da Bacia Hidrográfica do Córrego Rico, município de Jaboticabal, SP. O estudo foi baseado em fotografias aéreas, pancromáticas, verticais na escala 1:35.000 da região administrativa de Ribeirão Preto. Com técnicas de fotointerpretação, foram traçadas a rede de drenagem e respectivas microbacias hidrográficas, onde as variáveis selecionadas foram determinadas. As classes de risco de degradação, resultando no uso potencial do solo, foram determinadas de acordo com o coeficiente de rugosidade. As características do padrão de drenagem e do relevo repercutiram no comportamento hidrológico e litológico das microbacias hidrográficas, possibilitando a diferenciação entre as unidades de solos. A densidade de drenagem e a amplitude altimétrica foram as características que mais contribuíram para o poder discriminatório na relação solo-superfície. Na análise conjunta do potencial de uso do solo, verificou-se, principalmente, adequação para agricultura nos Latossolos e pecuária e, ou, reflorestamento nos Argissolos.