Distinct lake level lowstand in Lake Prespa (SE Europe) at the time of the 74 (75) ka Toba eruption

Abstract. The 74 (75) ka Toba eruption in Sumatra, Indonesia, is considered to be one of the largest volcanic events during the Quaternary. Tephra from the Toba eruption has been found in many terrestrial and marine sedimentary deposits, and acidity peaks related to the eruption have been used to synchronize ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica. Seismic profiles and sedimentological data from Lake Prespa on the Balkan Peninsula, SE Europe, indicate a lake level lowstand at 73.6±7.7 ka based on ESR dating of shells. Tephrostratigraphy, radiocarbon dating and tuning of the total organic carbon content with the NGRIP isotope record, corroborate that the lake level lowstand was a short-term event superimposed on the general cooling trend at the end of MIS 5, most likely at the onset of the Greenland Stadial GS- 20. Acknowledging that tectonic events or karst processes could have triggered this lake level lowstand, the chronological correspondence between the lowstand and the Toba eruption is intriguing. Therefore a Toba-driven short-term shift to aridity in the Balkan region, leading to lake level changes and triggering spatial expansion events in one of the lake’s most abundant benthic species, the carino mussel Dreissena presbensis, cannot be excluded.

A Near-Real-Time Automatic Orbit Determination System for COSMIC and Its Follow-On Satellite Mission: Analysis of Orbit and Clock Errors on Radio Occultation

The COSMIC-2 mission is a follow-on mission of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) with an upgraded payload for improved radio occultation (RO) applications. The objective of this paper is to develop a near-real-time (NRT) orbit determination system, called NRT National Chiao Tung University (NCTU) system, to support COSMIC-2 in atmospheric applications and verify the orbit product of COSMIC. The system is capable of automatic determinations of the NRT GPS clocks and LEO orbit and clock. To assess the NRT (NCTU) system, we use eight days of COSMIC data (March 24-31, 2011), which contain a total of 331 GPS observation sessions and 12 393 RO observable files. The parallel scheduling for independent GPS and LEO estimations and automatic time matching improves the computational efficiency by 64% compared to the sequential scheduling. Orbit difference analyses suggest a 10-cm accuracy for the COSMIC orbits from the NRT (NCTU) system, and it is consistent as the NRT University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (URCA) system. The mean velocity accuracy from the NRT orbits of COSMIC is 0.168 mm/s, corresponding to an error of about 0.051 μrad in the bending angle. The rms differences in the NRT COSMIC clock and in GPS clocks between the NRT (NCTU) and the postprocessing products are 3.742 and 1.427 ns. The GPS clocks determined from a partial ground GPS network [from NRT (NCTU)] and a full one [from NRT (UCAR)] result in mean rms frequency stabilities of 6.1E-12 and 2.7E-12, respectively, corresponding to range fluctuations of 5.5 and 2.4 cm and bending angle errors of 3.75 and 1.66 μrad .

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

The course of radiographic loosening, pain and functional outcome around the first revision of a total hip arthroplasty

Background: The published data on pain and physical function before and after revision of total hip arthroplasty (THA) is scarce. The study reports the course and interrelationships of radiographic loosening, pain and physical function 5 year before and after a first revision THA. Methods: The study was based on the IDES-THA database. All patients with their first THA revision for aseptic loosening and a documented index surgery on the same side and at least one pre-revision and one post-revision follow-up were selected. Only patients with an intact contralateral hip joint (Charnley class-A) were included. Follow-ups within ±5.5 years around the revision time point were analyzed. Annual prevalences of radiographic component loosening and the non-desired outcomes (moderate/severe/intolerable pain, walking <30 minutes, hip flexion range <90°) were calculated. Results: Signs of radiographic component loosening started to increase about 4 years before revision surgery. Two years later, a sharp increase of painful hips from 15% to 80% in the revision year was observed. In the year after revision surgery, this rate dropped back to below 10%. Walking capacity started to noticeably deteriorate 3 years before revision and in the revision year about 65% of patients could not walk longer than 30 minutes. As opposed to pain, walking capacity did not recover to pre-revision levels and the best outcome was only reached two years post-revision. Hip flexion range had the slowest and least extent of deterioration (≈45% flexed <70° in the revision year) but with the best outcomes at only three years after revision surgery it took the longest to recover. Conclusion: Prevalence of radiological loosening signs and/or pain intensity follow an almost parallel course around the first revision of a THA for aseptic component loosening. This process begins about 4 years (radiographic loosening) before the actual revision surgery and intensifies about 2 years later (pain). It also involves walking capacity and hip range of motion. While pain levels go back to levels similar to those after primary surgery, range of motion and even more walking capacity remain moderately compromised.

Relations between adolescents' self-evaluations, time perspectives, motivation for school and their achievement in different countries and at different ages

The present study focused on the relations between the self-efficacy, social self-concept, time perspectives, school investment and academic achievement of students in four different European countries and in different adolescence periods. A total of 1623 students completed questionnaires. The relations between the concepts proved not to be specific to the Western or to the former Communist bloc countries studied. The expected general decline in investment and academic achievement over the adolescence period showed up in all four countries studied. Contrary to our hypothesis, however, this decline could not be explained by growing influences of either social self-concept or time perspectives regarding personal development on their investment. In fact, the effects of social self-concept were strongest for the youngest adolescence group. Students’ social self-concept was the best predictor for their investment, while self-efficacy proved to predict academic achievement best in all adolescence periods.

Total surgical aortic arch replacement as a safe strategy to treat complex multisegmental proximal thoracic aortic pathology.

OBJECTIVE To analyse the results after elective open total aortic arch replacement. METHODS We analysed 39 patients (median age 63 years, median logistic EuroSCORE 18.4) who underwent elective open total arch replacement between 2005 and 2012. RESULTS In-hospital mortality was 5.1% (n = 2) and perioperative neurological injury was 12.8% (n = 5). The indication for surgery was degenerative aneurysmal disease in 59% (n = 23) and late aneurysmal formation following previous surgery of type A aortic dissection in 35.9% (n = 14); 5.1% (n = 2) were due to anastomotical aneurysms after prior ascending repair. Fifty-nine percent (n = 23) of the patients had already undergone previous proximal thoracic aortic surgery. In 30.8% (n = 12) of them, a conventional elephant trunk was added to total arch replacement, in 28.2% (n = 11), root replacement was additionally performed. Median hypothermic circulatory arrest time was 42 min (21-54 min). Selective antegrade cerebral perfusion was used in 95% (n = 37) of patients. Median follow-up was 11 months [interquartile range (IQR) 1-20 months]. There was no late death and no need for reoperation during this period. CONCLUSIONS Open total aortic arch replacement shows very satisfying results. The number of patients undergoing total arch replacement as a redo procedure and as a part of a complex multisegmental aortic pathology is high. Future strategies will have to emphasize neurological protection in extensive simultaneous replacement of the aortic arch and adjacent segments.

Real-time simulation of large open quantum spin systems driven by dissipation

We consider a large quantum system with spins 12 whose dynamics is driven entirely by measurements of the total spin of spin pairs. This gives rise to a dissipative coupling to the environment. When one averages over the measurement results, the corresponding real-time path integral does not suffer from a sign problem. Using an efficient cluster algorithm, we study the real-time evolution from an initial antiferromagnetic state of the two-dimensional Heisenberg model, which is driven to a disordered phase, not by a Hamiltonian, but by sporadic measurements or by continuous Lindblad evolution.

Correlation between serum total globulins and gamma globulins and their use to diagnose failure of passive transfer in foals.

Various assays have been used as an aid to diagnose failure of passive transfer (FPT) of immunoglobulins in neonatal foals, but often lack sensitivity as screening tests, or are time consuming to perform and impractical as confirmatory tests. The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether measurement of serum total globulins (TG; i.e. total protein minus albumin) can be used to estimate the electrophoretic gamma globulin (EGG) fraction in hospitalised neonatal foals with suspected FPT. Sample data from 56 foals were evaluated retrospectively. The coefficient of rank correlation was 0.84. The area under the curve of ROC analysis was 0.887, 0.922 and 0.930 for EGG concentrations <2 g/L, < 4 g/L and <8 g/L, respectively. Cut-offs for TG achieved ≥90% sensitivity for detecting EGG <2 g/L, < 4 g/L and <8 g/L, with negative predictive values of >97% and >94%, using prevalence of 15% and 30%, respectively. These results suggest that measurement of TG can be used as a guide to predicting EGG, provided that appropriate cut-off values are selected, and this technique could be a useful initial screening test for FPT in foals.

Shorter time since inflammatory bowel disease diagnosis in children is associated with lower mental health in parents.

AIM This study assessed the mental health of parents of children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), compared their mental health with age-matched and gender-matched references and examined parental and child predictors for mental health problems. METHODS A total of 125 mothers and 106 fathers of 125 children with active and inactive IBD from the Swiss IBD multicentre cohort study were included. Parental mental health was assessed by the Symptom Checklist 27 and child behaviour problems by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Child medical data were extracted from hospital records. RESULTS While the mothers reported lower mental health, the fathers' mental health was similar, or even better, than in age-matched and gender-matched community controls. In both parents, shorter time since the child's diagnosis was associated with poorer mental health. In addition, the presence of their own IBD diagnosis and child behaviour problems predicted maternal mental health problems. CONCLUSIONS Parents of children with IBD may need professional support when their child is diagnosed, to mitigate distress. This, in turn, may help the child to adjust better to IBD. Particular attention should be paid to mothers who have their own IBD diagnosis and whose children display behaviour problems.

Controversy Total War

Total war is a controversial term used in the past by politicians, publicists and military officers as well as by computer specialists and academics in the present. Since its conception by French politicians during the First World War in a time of severe crisis (1916/17), it has become a term used by historians and other academics to cover a wide array of elements when looking at wars of the past. A real total war was and is impossible. Elements of total war – total war aims, total methods of warfare, total mobilization and total control – can, however, be identified and can serve as a useful tool for further transnational research on war.

Analysis of TNF-antagonist switch over time and associated risk factors in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Limited data from large cohorts are available on tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists (infliximab, adalimumab, certolizumab pegol) switch over time. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of switching from one TNF antagonist to another and to identify associated risk factors. METHODS Data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Cohort Study (SIBDCS) were analyzed. RESULTS Of 1731 patients included into the SIBDCS (956 with Crohn's disease [CD] and 775 with ulcerative colitis [UC]), 347 CD patients (36.3%) and 129 UC patients (16.6%) were treated with at least one TNF antagonist. A total of 53/347 (15.3%) CD patients (median disease duration 9 years) and 20/129 (15.5%) of UC patients (median disease duration 7 years) needed to switch to a second and/or a third TNF antagonist, respectively. Median treatment duration was longest for the first TNF antagonist used (CD 25 months; UC 14 months), followed by the second (CD 13 months; UC 4 months) and third TNF antagonist (CD 11 months; UC 15 months). Primary nonresponse, loss of response and side effects were the major reasons to stop and/or switch TNF antagonist therapy. A low body mass index, a short diagnostic delay and extraintestinal manifestations at inclusion were identified as risk factors for a switch of the first used TNF antagonist within 24 months of its use in CD patients. CONCLUSION Switching of the TNF antagonist over time is a common issue. The median treatment duration with a specific TNF antagonist is diminishing with an increasing number of TNF antagonists being used.

Consecutive series of 226 journey bicruciate substituting total knee replacements: early complication and revision rates

BACKGROUND The Journey bicruciate substituting (BCS) total knee replacement (TKR) is intended to improve knee kinematics by more closely approximating the surfaces of a normal knee. The purpose of this analysis was to address the safety of Journey BCS knees by studying early complication and revision rates in a consecutive case series. METHODS Between December 2006 and May 2011, a single surgeon implanted 226 Journey BCS total knee prostheses in 191 patients (124 women, 67 men) who were eligible for study. Mean age at surgery was 68 years (41-85 years).Outcome measures were early complications and minor and major revision rates. All complications were considered, irrespective of whether conservative treatment or revision was required. RESULTS The average implantation time was 3.5 years (range 1.3-5.8 years). Thirty-three complications (14.6% of 226 knees) required minor or major revision surgery in 25 patients. The remaining eight patients were treated conservatively. Sixteen minor revisions were performed in 12 patients. Thirteen major revisions were required in 13 patients, which results in a rate of 1.65 major revisions per 100 component years. The linear trend of the early complication rate by treatment year was not significant (p = .22).Multivariate logistic regression showed no significant predictors for the occurrence of a complication or for revision surgery. A tendency towards higher complication rates was observed in female patients, although it was not significant (p = .066). CONCLUSIONS The complication and revision rates of the Journey BCS knee implant are high in comparison with those reported for other established total knee systems. Caution is advised when using this implant, particularly for less experienced knee surgeons.

Outcome study of real-time MR-guided cervical periradicular injection therapy in an open 1.0 Tesla MRI system

PURPOSE To evaluate the accuracy, safety, and efficacy of cervical nerve root injection therapy using magnetic resonance guidance in an open 1.0 T MRI system. METHODS Between September 2009 and April 2012, a total of 21 patients (9 men, 12 women; mean age 47.1 ± 11.1 years) underwent MR-guided cervical periradicular injection for cervical radicular pain in an open 1.0 T system. An interactive proton density-weighted turbo spin echo (PDw TSE) sequence was used for real-time guidance of the MR-compatible 20-gauge injection needle. Clinical outcome was evaluated on a verbal numeric rating scale (VNRS) before injection therapy (baseline) and at 1 week and 1, 3, and 6 months during follow-up. RESULTS All procedures were technically successful and there were no major complications. The mean preinterventional VNRS score was 7.42 and exhibited a statistically significant decrease (P < 0.001) at all follow-up time points: 3.86 ± 1.53 at 1 week, 3.21 ± 2.19 at 1 month, 2.58 ± 2.54 at 3 months, and 2.76 ± 2.63 at 6 months. At 6 months, 14.3 % of the patients reported complete resolution of radicular pain and 38.1 % each had either significant (4-8 VNRS score points) or mild (1-3 VNRS score points) relief of pain; 9.5 % experienced no pain relief. CONCLUSION Magnetic resonance fluoroscopy-guided periradicular cervical spine injection is an accurate, safe, and efficacious treatment option for patients with cervical radicular pain. The technique may be a promising alternative to fluoroscopy- or CT-guided injections of the cervical spine, especially in young patients and in patients requiring repeat injections.

MR Angiography at 3 Tesla to Assess Proximal Internal Carotid Artery Stenoses: Contrast-Enhanced or 3D Time-of-Flight MR Angiography?

PURPOSE The aim of this study was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of 3D time-of-flight (TOF-MRA) and contrast-enhanced (CE-MRA) magnetic resonance angiography at 3 T for detection and quantification of proximal high-grade stenosis using multidetector computed tomography angiography (MDCTA) as reference standard. METHODS The institutional ethics committee approved this prospective study. A total of 41 patients suspected of having internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis underwent both MDCTA and MRA. CE-MRA and TOF-MRA were performed using a 3.0-T imager with a dedicated eight-element cervical coil. ICA stenoses were measured according to the North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial criteria and categorized as 0-25 % (minimal), 25-50 % (mild), 50-69 % (moderate), 70-99 % (high grade), and 100 % (occlusion). Sensitivity and specificity for the detection of high-grade ICA stenoses (70-99 %) and ICA occlusions were determined. In addition, intermodality agreement was assessed with κ-statistics for detection of high-grade ICA stenoses (70-99 %) and ICA occlusions. RESULTS A total of 80 carotid arteries of 41 patients were reviewed. Two previously stented ICAs were excluded from analysis. On MDCTA, 7 ICAs were occluded, 12 ICAs presented with and 63 without a high-grade ICA stenosis (70-99 %). For detecting 70-99 % stenosis, both 3D TOF-MRA and CE-MRA were 91.7 % sensitive and 98.5 % specific, respectively. Both MRA techniques were highly sensitive (100 %), and specific (CE-MRA, 100 %; TOF-MRA, 98.7 %) for the detection of ICA occlusion. However, TOF-MRA misclassified one high-grade stenosis as occlusion. Intermodality agreement for detection of 70-99 % ICA stenoses was excellent between TOF-MRA and CE-MRA [κ = 0.902, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.769-1.000], TOF-MRA and MDCTA (κ = 0.902, 95 % CI = 0.769-1.000), and CE-MRA and MDCTA (κ = 0.902, 95 % CI = 0.769-1.000). CONCLUSION Both 3D TOF-MRA and CE-MRA at 3 T are reliable tools for detecting high-grade proximal ICA stenoses (70-99 %). 3D TOF-MRA might misclassify pseudo-occlusions as complete occlusions. If there are no contraindications for CE-MRA, CE-MRA is recommended as primary MR imaging modality.

Total Tumor Volume and Alpha Fetoprotein for selection of transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma: A prospective validation.

The selection of liver transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is currently validated based on Milan criteria. The use of extended criteria has remained a matter of debate, mainly because of the absence of prospective validation. The present prospective study recruited patients according to the previously proposed Total Tumor Volume (TTV ≤115 cm(3) )/alpha fetoprotein (AFP ≤400 ng/ml) score. Patients with AFP >400 ng/ml were excluded, and as such the Milan group was modified to include only patients with AFP <400 ng/ml; these patients were compared to patients beyond Milan, but within TTV/AFP. From January 2007 to March 2013, 233 patients with HCC were listed for liver transplantation. Of them, 195 patients were within Milan, and 38 beyond Milan but within TTV/AFP. The average follow-up from listing was 33,9 ±24,9 months. The risk of drop-out was higher for patients beyond Milan but within TTV/AFP (16/38, 42,1%), than for patients within Milan (49/195, 25,1%, p=0,033). In parallel, intent-to-treat survival from listing was lower in the patients beyond Milan (53,8% vs. 71,6% at four years, p<0,001). After a median waiting time of 8 months, 166 patients were transplanted, 134 patients within Milan criteria, and 32 beyond Milan but within TTV/AFP. They demonstrated acceptable and similar recurrence rates (4,5% vs. 9,4%, p=0,138) and post-transplant survivals (78,7% vs. 74,6% at four years, p=0,932). CONCLUSION Based on the present prospective study, HCC liver transplant candidate selection could be expanded to the TTV (≤115 cm(3) )/AFP (≤400 ng/ml) criteria in centers with at least 8-month waiting time. An increased risk of drop-out on the waiting list can be expected but with equivalent and satisfactory post-transplant survival. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.