867 resultados para Time-Consistent Policy


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Research macroeconomists have witnessed remarkable methodological developments in mathematical, statistical, and computational tools during the last two decades. The three essays in this dissertation took advantage of these advances to analyze important macroeconomic issues. ^ The first essay, “ Habit Formation, Adjustments Costs, and International Business Cycle Puzzles” analyzes the extent to which incorporating habit formation and adjustment costs in investment in a one-good two-country general equilibrium model would help overcome some of the international business cycle puzzles. Unlike standard results in the literature, the model generates persistent, cyclical adjustment paths in response to shocks. It also yields positive cross-country correlations in consumption, employment, investment, and output. Cross-country correlations in output are higher than the ones in consumption. This is qualitatively consistent with the stylized facts. These results are particularly striking given the predicted negative correlations in investment, employment, and output that are typically found in the literature. ^ The second essay, “Comparison Utility, Endogenous Time Preference, and Economic Growth,” uses World War II as a natural experiment to analyze the degree to which a model where consumers' preferences exhibit comparison-based utility and endogenous discounting is able to improve upon existing models in mimicking the transitional dynamics of an economy after a shock that destroys part of its capital stock. The model outperforms existing ones in replicating the behavior of the saving rate (both on impact and along the transient paths) after this historical event. This result brings additional support to the endogenous rate of time preference being a crucial element in growth models. ^ The last essay, “Monetary Policy under Fear of Floating: Modeling the Dominican Economy,” presents a small scale macroeconomic model for a country (Dominican Republic) characterized by a strong presence of fear of floating (reluctance to have a flexible exchange rate regime) in the conduct of monetary policy. The dynamic responses of this economy to external shocks that are of interest for monetary policy purposes are analyzed under two alternative interest rate policy rules: One being the standard Taylor rule and another that responds explicitly to deviations of the exchange rate with respect to its long-term trend. ^

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The detailed organic composition of atmospheric fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) is an integral part of the knowledge needed in order to fully characterize its sources and transformation in the environment. For the study presented here, samples were collected at 3-hour intervals. This high time resolution allows gaining unique insights on the influence of short- and long-range transport phenomena, and dynamic atmospheric processes. A specially designed sequential sampler was deployed at the 2002-2003 Baltimore PM-Supersite to collect PM2.5 samples at a 3-hourly resolution for extended periods of consecutive days, during both summer and winter seasons. Established solvent-extraction and GC-MS techniques were used to extract and analyze the organic compounds in 119 samples from each season. Over 100 individual compounds were quantified in each sample. For primary organics, averaging the diurnal ambient concentrations over the sampled periods revealed ambient patterns that relate to diurnal emission patterns of major source classes. Several short-term releases of pollutants from local sources were detected, and local meteorological data was used to pinpoint possible source regions. Biogenic secondary organic compounds were detected as well, and possible mechanisms of formation were evaluated. The relationships between the observed continuous variations of the concentrations of selected organic markers and both the on-site meteorological measurements conducted parallel to the PM2.5 sampling, and the synoptic patterns of weather and wind conditions were also examined. Several one-to-two days episodes were identified from the sequential variation of the concentration observed for specific marker compounds and markers ratios. The influence of the meteorological events on the concentrations of the organic compounds during selected episodes was discussed. It was observed that during the summer, under conditions of pervasive influence of air masses originated from the west/northwest, some organic species displayed characteristics consistent with the measured PM2.5 being strongly influenced by the aged nature of these long-traveling background parcels. During the winter, intrusions from more regional air masses originating from the south and the southwest were more important.

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Climate change is one of the most important and urgent issues of our time. Since 2006, China has overtaken the United States as the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. China’s role in an international climate change solution has gained increased attention. Although much literature has addressed the functioning, performance, and implications of existing climate change mitigation policies and actions in China, there is insufficient literature that illuminates how the national climate change mitigation policies have been formulated and shaped. This research utilizes the policy network approach to explore China’s climate change mitigation policy making by examining how a variety of government, business, and civil society actors have formed networks to address environmental contexts and influence the policy outcomes and changes. The study is qualitative in nature. Three cases are selected to illustrate structural and interactive features of the specific policy network settings in shaping different policy arrangements and influencing the outcomes in the Chinese context. The three cases include the regulatory evolution of China’s climate change policy making; the country’s involvement in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) activity, and China’s exploration of voluntary agreement through adopting the Top-1000 Industrial Energy Conservation Program. The historical analysis of the policy process uses both primary data from interviews and fieldwork, and secondary data from relevant literature. The study finds that the Chinese central government dominates domestic climate change policy making; however, expanded action networks that involve actors at all levels have emerged in correspondence to diverse climate mitigation policy arrangements. The improved openness and accessibility of climate change policy network have contributed to its proactive engagement in promoting mitigation outcomes. In conclusion, the research suggests that the policy network approach provides a useful tool for studying China’s climate change policy making process. The involvement of various types of state and non-state actors has shaped new relations and affected the policy outcomes and changes. In addition, through the cross-case analysis, the study challenges the “fragmented authoritarianism” model and argues that this once-influential model is not appropriate in explaining new development and changes of policy making processes in contemporary China.

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Despite its founding by Hugo Chávez on the heels of the failed Free Trade Area for the Americas (FTAA) negotiations which took place November 2003, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA, as it is known for its Spanish acronym) has evolved into a political tool that uses “social power” to facilitate Venezuela‟s positioning as the leader of the anti-U.S. agenda in the region. Fostering political favors and goodwill through the financing of social development projects, ALBA has created a political environment whereby countries on the take and their respective leaders seem deterred from taking public opposing viewpoints to Chávez. To that end, it has provided billions in economic aid to several nations in Latin American and the Caribbean, winning their favor and support for its policies. To date, ALBA counts on eight member nations. Besides Venezuela, it includes Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. It also has several observer nations, among them, Grenada, Haiti, Paraguay, Uruguay, and a non-Latin American country, Syria. Throughout its recent history Venezuela has used its oil wealth to pursue political capital. Under the Chávez government it is doing so as part of a strategic effort countering the U.S. Following Cuba‟s demise in the region as the anti-American socialist camp leader, Chávez is attempting to step into Cuba‟s shoes, picking up where Cuba left off over a decade ago and has used the ALBA as a mechanism to help promote his foreign policy. Relying on its own resources, not those of the Soviet Union as Cuba once did, Venezuela has already shown its influence in the international arena, challenging U.S. positions at the Organization of American States (OAS), the United Nations, and even in matters having little if nothing to do with the region, such as Iran‟s nuclear proliferation. Taking advantage of Venezuela‟s oil prices bonanza, Chávez has been spreading economic aid throughout the region, funding several development projects. From stepping in to buy Bolivia‟s soy beans when the U.S. ceased doing so, to helping finance and construct an airport in Dominica, Venezuela‟s ALBA has provided assistance to many states in the region. As in the past, Venezuela has invested significantly both in time and money in the Caribbean, providing development assistance and oil at a discount to Haiti, St. Kitts and Nevis, and the Dominican Republic, although the latter two are neither member nor observer states of ALBA. The aid Chávez has been spreading around may be coming at a cost. It seems it has begun to cause cracks within the CARICOM community, where ALBA already counts on six of its 15 members, leading experts and leaders in the region to question traditional alliances to each other and the U.S. Yet, ALBA‟s ability to influence through aid is dependent on the Venezuelan economy. Its success hinges on continued Venezuelan oil sales at stable prices and the ability of Chávez to remain in power.

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During the Cold War the foreign policy of the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO), was heavily criticized by scholars and activists for following the lead of the U.S. state in its overseas operations. In a wide range of states, the AFL-CIO worked to destabilize governments selected by the U.S. state for regime change, while in others the Federation helped stabilize client regimes of the U.S. state. In 1997 the four regional organizations that previously carried out AFL-CIO foreign policy were consolidated into the American Center for International Labor Solidarity (Solidarity Center). My dissertation is an attempt to analyze whether the foreign policy of the AFL-CIO in the Solidarity Center era is marked by continuity or change with past practices. At the same time, this study will attempt to add to the debate over the role of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the post-Cold War era, and its implications for future study. Using the qualitative "process-tracing" detailed by of Alexander George and Andrew Bennett (2005) my study examines a wide array of primary and secondary sources, including documents from the NED and AFL-CIO, in order to analyze the relationship between the Solidarity Center and the U.S. state from 2002-2009. Furthermore, after analyzing broad trends of NED grants to the Solidarity Center, this study examines three dissimilar case studies including Venezuela, Haiti, and Iraq and the Middle East and North African (MENA) region to further explore the connections between U.S. foreign policy goals and the Solidarity Center operations. The study concludes that the evidence indicates continuity with past AFL-CIO foreign policy practices whereby the Solidarity Center follows the lead of the U.S. state. It has been found that the patterns of NED funding indicate that the Solidarity Center closely tailors its operations abroad in areas of importance to the U.S. state, that it is heavily reliant on state funding via the NED for its operations, and that the Solidarity Center works closely with U.S. allies and coalitions in these regions. Finally, this study argues for the relevance of "top-down" NGO creation and direction in the post-Cold War era.

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Large read-only or read-write transactions with a large read set and a small write set constitute an important class of transactions used in such applications as data mining, data warehousing, statistical applications, and report generators. Such transactions are best supported with optimistic concurrency, because locking of large amounts of data for extended periods of time is not an acceptable solution. The abort rate in regular optimistic concurrency algorithms increases exponentially with the size of the transaction. The algorithm proposed in this dissertation solves this problem by using a new transaction scheduling technique that allows a large transaction to commit safely with significantly greater probability that can exceed several orders of magnitude versus regular optimistic concurrency algorithms. A performance simulation study and a formal proof of serializability and external consistency of the proposed algorithm are also presented.^ This dissertation also proposes a new query optimization technique (lazy queries). Lazy Queries is an adaptive query execution scheme which optimizes itself as the query runs. Lazy queries can be used to find an intersection of sub-queries in a very efficient way, which does not require full execution of large sub-queries nor does it require any statistical knowledge about the data.^ An efficient optimistic concurrency control algorithm used in a massively parallel B-tree with variable-length keys is introduced. B-trees with variable-length keys can be effectively used in a variety of database types. In particular, we show how such a B-tree was used in our implementation of a semantic object-oriented DBMS. The concurrency control algorithm uses semantically safe optimistic virtual "locks" that achieve very fine granularity in conflict detection. This algorithm ensures serializability and external consistency by using logical clocks and backward validation of transactional queries. A formal proof of correctness of the proposed algorithm is also presented. ^

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This is an empirical study whose purpose was to examine the process of innovation adoption as an adaptive response by a public organization and its subunits existing under varying degrees of environmental uncertainty. Meshing organization innovation research and contingency theory to form a theoretical framework, an exploratory case study design was undertaken in a large, metropolitan government located in an area with the fourth highest prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in the country. A number of environmental and organizational factors were examined for their influence upon decision making in the adoption/non-adoption as well as implementation of any number of AIDS-related policies, practices, and programs.^ The major findings of the study are as follows. For the county government itself (macro level), no AIDS-specific workplace policies have been adopted. AIDS activities (AIDS education, AIDS Task Force, AIDS Coordinator, etc.), adopted county-wide early in the epidemic, have all been abandoned. Worker infection rates, in the aggregate and throughout the epidemic have been small. As a result, absent co-worker conflict (isolated and negligible), no increase in employee health care costs, no litigation regarding discrimination, and no major impact on workforce productivity, AIDS has basically become a non-issue at the strategic core of the organization. At the departmental level, policy adoption decisions varied widely. Here the predominant issue is occupational risk, i.e., both objective as well as perceived. As expected, more AIDS-related activities (policies, practices, and programs) were found in departments with workers known to have significant risk for exposure to the AIDS virus (fire rescue, medical examiner, police, etc.). AIDS specific policies, in the form of OSHA's Bloodborn Pathogen Standard, took place primarily because they were legislatively mandated. Union participation varied widely, although not necessarily based upon worker risk. In several departments, the union was a primary factor bringing about adoption decisions. Additional factors were identified and included organizational presence of AIDS expertise, availability of slack resources, and the existence of a policy champion. Other variables, such as subunit size, centralization of decision making, and formalization were not consistent factors explaining adoption decisions. ^

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Exposure to certain bloodborne pathogens can prematurely end a person’s life. Healthcare workers (HCWs), especially those who are members of surgical teams, are at increased risk of exposure to these pathogens. The proper use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during operative/invasive procedures reduces that risk. Despite this, some HCWs fail to consistently use PPE as required by federal regulation, accrediting agencies, hospital policy, and professional association standards. The purpose of this mixed methods survey study was to (a) examine factors surgical team members perceive influence choices of wearing or not wearing PPE during operative/invasive procedures and (b) determine what would influence consistent use of PPE by surgical team members. Using an ex post facto, non-experimental design, the memberships of five professional associations whose members comprise surgical teams were invited to complete a mixed methods survey study. The primary research question for the study was: What differences (perceptual and demographic) exist between surgical team members that influence their choices of wearing or not wearing PPE during operative/invasive procedures? Four principal differences were found between surgical team members. Functional (i.e., profession or role based) differences exist between the groups. Age and experience (i.e., time in profession) differences exist among members of the groups. Finally, being a nurse anesthetist influences the use of risk assessment to determine the level of PPE to use. Four common themes emerged across all groups informing the two study purposes. Those themes were: availability, education, leadership, and performance. Subsidiary research questions examined the influence of previous accidental exposure to blood or body fluids, federal regulations, hospital policy and procedure, leaders’ attitudes, and patients’ needs on the use of PPE. Each of these was found to strongly influence surgical team members and their use of PPE during operative/invasive procedures. Implications based on the findings affect organizational policy, purchasing and distribution decisions, curriculum design and instruction, leader behavior, and finally partnership with PPE manufacturers. Surgical team members must balance their innate need to care for patients with their need to protect themselves. Results of this study will help team members, leaders, and educators achieve this balance.

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Ongoing debates within the professional and academic communities have raised a number of questions specific to the international audit market. This dissertation consists of three related essays that address such issues. First, I examine whether the propensity to switch between auditors of different sizes (i.e., Big 4 versus non-Big 4) changes as adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) becomes a more common phenomenon, arguing that smaller auditors have an opportunity to invest in necessary skills and training needed to enter this market. Findings suggest that clients are relatively less (more) likely to switch to (away from) a Big 4 auditor if the client's adoption of IFRS occurs in more recent years. ^ In the second essay, I draw on these inferences and test whether the change in audit fees in the year of IFRS adoption changes over time. As the market becomes less concentrated, larger auditors becomes less able to demand a premium for their services. Consistent with my arguments, results suggest that the change in audit service fees declines over time, although this effect seems concentrated among the Big 4. I also find that this effect is partially attributable to a differential effect of the auditors' experience in pricing audit services related to IFRS based on the period in which adoption occurs. The results of these two essays offer important implications to policy debates on the costs and benefits of IFRS adoption. ^ In the third essay, I differentiate Big 4 auditors into three classifications—Parent firms, Brand Name affiliates, and Local affiliates—and test for differences in audit fee premiums (relative to non-Big 4 auditors) and audit quality. Results suggest that there is significant heterogeneity between the three classifications based on both of these characteristics, which is an important consideration for future research. Overall, this dissertation provides additional insights into a variety of aspects of the global audit market.^

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The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

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Research macroeconomists have witnessed remarkable methodological developments in mathematical, statistical, and computational tools during the last two decades. The three essays in this dissertation took advantage of these advances to analyze important macroeconomic issues. The first essay, “ Habit Formation, Adjustments Costs, and International Business Cycle Puzzles” analyzes the extent to which incorporating habit formation and adjustment costs in investment in a one-good two-country general equilibrium model would help overcome some of the international business cycle puzzles. Unlike standard results in the literature, the model generates persistent, cyclical adjustment paths in response to shocks. It also yields positive cross-country correlations in consumption, employment, investment, and output. Cross-country correlations in output are higher than the ones in consumption. This is qualitatively consistent with the stylized facts. These results are particularly striking given the predicted negative correlations in investment, employment, and output that are typically found in the literature. The second essay, “Comparison Utility, Endogenous Time Preference, and Economic Growth,” uses World War II as a natural experiment to analyze the degree to which a model where consumers' preferences exhibit comparison-based utility and endogenous discounting is able to improve upon existing models in mimicking the transitional dynamics of an economy after a shock that destroys part of its capital stock. The model outperforms existing ones in replicating the behavior of the saving rate (both on impact and along the transient paths) after this historical event. This result brings additional support to the endogenous rate of time preference being a crucial element in growth models. The last essay, “Monetary Policy under Fear of Floating: Modeling the Dominican Economy,” presents a small scale macroeconomic model for a country (Dominican Republic) characterized by a strong presence of fear of floating (reluctance to have a flexible exchange rate regime) in the conduct of monetary policy. The dynamic responses of this economy to external shocks that are of interest for monetary policy purposes are analyzed under two alternative interest rate policy rules: One being the standard Taylor rule and another that responds explicitly to deviations of the exchange rate with respect to its long-term trend.

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Exposure to certain bloodborne pathogens can prematurely end a person’s life. Healthcare workers (HCWs), especially those who are members of surgical teams, are at increased risk of exposure to these pathogens. The proper use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during operative/invasive procedures reduces that risk. Despite this, some HCWs fail to consistently use PPE as required by federal regulation, accrediting agencies, hospital policy, and professional association standards. The purpose of this mixed methods survey study was to (a) examine factors surgical team members perceive influence choices of wearing or not wearing PPE during operative/invasive procedures and (b) determine what would influence consistent use of PPE by surgical team members. Using an ex post facto, non-experimental design, the memberships of five professional associations whose members comprise surgical teams were invited to complete a mixed methods survey study. The primary research question for the study was: What differences (perceptual and demographic) exist between surgical team members that influence their choices of wearing or not wearing PPE during operative/invasive procedures? Four principal differences were found between surgical team members. Functional (i.e., profession or role based) differences exist between the groups. Age and experience (i.e., time in profession) differences exist among members of the groups. Finally, being a nurse anesthetist influences the use of risk assessment to determine the level of PPE to use. Four common themes emerged across all groups informing the two study purposes. Those themes were: availability, education, leadership, and performance. Subsidiary research questions examined the influence of previous accidental exposure to blood or body fluids, federal regulations, hospital policy and procedure, leaders’ attitudes, and patients’ needs on the use of PPE. Each of these was found to strongly influence surgical team members and their use of PPE during operative/invasive procedures. Implications based on the findings affect organizational policy, purchasing and distribution decisions, curriculum design and instruction, leader behavior, and finally partnership with PPE manufacturers. Surgical team members must balance their innate need to care for patients with their need to protect themselves. Results of this study will help team members, leaders, and educators achieve this balance.

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The detailed organic composition of atmospheric fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM 2.5) is an integral part of the knowledge needed in order to fully characterize its sources and transformation in the environment. For the study presented here, samples were collected at 3-hour intervals. This high time resolution allows gaining unique insights on the influence of short- and long-range transport phenomena, and dynamic atmospheric processes. A specially designed sequential sampler was deployed at the 2002-2003 Baltimore PM Supersite to collect PM2.5 samples at a 3-hourly resolution for extended periods of consecutive days, during both summer and winter seasons. Established solvent-extraction and GC-MS techniques were used to extract and analyze the organic compounds in 119 samples from each season. Over 100 individual compounds were quantified in each sample. For primary organics, averaging the diurnal ambient concentrations over the sampled periods revealed ambient patterns that relate to diurnal emission patterns of major source classes. Several short-term releases of pollutants from local sources were detected, and local meteorological data was used to pinpoint possible source regions. Biogenic secondary organic compounds were detected as well, and possible mechanisms of formation were evaluated. The relationships between the observed continuous variations of the concentrations of selected organic markers and both the on-site meteorological measurements conducted parallel to the PM2.5 sampling, and the synoptic patterns of weather and wind conditions were also examined. Several one-to-two days episodes were identified from the sequential variation of the concentration observed for specific marker compounds and markers ratios. The influence of the meteorological events on the concentrations of the organic compounds during selected episodes was discussed. It was observed that during the summer, under conditions of pervasive influence of air masses originated from the west/northwest, some organic species displayed characteristics consistent with the measured PM2.5 being strongly influenced by the aged nature of these long-traveling background parcels. During the winter, intrusions from more regional air masses originating from the south and the southwest were more important.

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The Hf isotope composition of seawater does not match that expected from dissolution of bulk continental crust. This mismatch is generally considered to be due to retention of unradiogenic Hf in resistant zircons during incomplete weathering of continental crust. During periods of intense glacial weathering, zircons should break down more efficiently, resulting in the release of highly unradiogenic Hf to the oceans. We test this hypothesis by comparing Nd and Hf isotope time series obtained from NW Atlantic ferromanganese crusts. Both isotope systems show a decrease associated with the onset of northern hemisphere glaciation. The observed changes display distinct trajectories in epsilon Nd- epsilon Hf space, which differ from previously reported arrays of bulk terrestrial material and seawater. Such patterns are consistent with the release of highly unradiogenic Hf from very old zircons, facilitated by enhanced mechanical weathering.

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Collaborative sharing of information is becoming much more needed technique to achieve complex goals in today's fast-paced tech-dominant world. Personal Health Record (PHR) system has become a popular research area for sharing patients informa- tion very quickly among health professionals. PHR systems store and process sensitive information, which should have proper security mechanisms to protect patients' private data. Thus, access control mechanisms of the PHR should be well-defined. Secondly, PHRs should be stored in encrypted form. Cryptographic schemes offering a more suitable solution for enforcing access policies based on user attributes are needed for this purpose. Attribute-based encryption can resolve these problems, we propose a patient-centric framework that protects PHRs against untrusted service providers and malicious users. In this framework, we have used Ciphertext Policy Attribute Based Encryption scheme as an efficient cryptographic technique, enhancing security and privacy of the system, as well as enabling access revocation. Patients can encrypt their PHRs and store them on untrusted storage servers. They also maintain full control over access to their PHR data by assigning attribute-based access control to selected data users, and revoking unauthorized users instantly. In order to evaluate our system, we implemented CP-ABE library and web services as part of our framework. We also developed an android application based on the framework that allows users to register into the system, encrypt their PHR data and upload to the server, and at the same time authorized users can download PHR data and decrypt it. Finally, we present experimental results and performance analysis. It shows that the deployment of the proposed system would be practical and can be applied into practice.