The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

Prevalence of obesity and overweight and associated nutritional factors in a population-based Swiss sample: an opportunity to analyze the impact of three different European cultural roots.

PURPOSE: Obesity represents a growing public health concern worldwide. The latest data in Switzerland rely on self-reported body mass index (BMI), leading to underestimation of prevalence. We reassessed the prevalence of obesity and overweight in a sample of the Swiss population using measured BMI and waist circumference (WC) and explored the association with nutritional factors and living in different linguistic-cultural regions. METHODS: Data of 1,505 participants of a cross-sectional population-based survey in the three linguistic regions of Switzerland were analyzed. BMI and WC were measured, and a 24-h urine collection was performed to evaluate dietary sodium, potassium and protein intake. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight, obesity and abdominal obesity was 32.2, 14.2 and 33.6 %, respectively. Significant differences were observed in the regional distribution, with a lower prevalence in the Italian-speaking population. Low educational level, current smoking, scarce physical activity and being migrant were associated with an higher prevalence of obesity. Sodium, potassium and protein intake increased significantly across BMI categories. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and overweight affect almost half of the Swiss adolescents and adults, and the prevalence appears to increase. Using BMI and WC to define obesity led to different prevalences. Differences were furthermore observed across Swiss linguistic-cultural regions, despite a common socio-economic and governmental framework. We found a positive association between obesity and salt intake, with a potential deleterious synergistic effect on cardiovascular risk.

Neurotoxicant-induced inflammatory response in three-dimensional brain cell cultures.

Brain inflammatory response is triggered by the activation of microglial cells and astrocytes in response to various types of CNS injury, including neurotoxic insults. Its outcome is determined by cellular interactions, inflammatory mediators, as well as trophic and/or cytotoxic signals, and depends on many additional factors such as the intensity and duration of the insult, the extent of both the primary neuronal damage and glial reactivity and the developmental stage of the brain. Depending on particular circumstances, the brain inflammatory response can promote neuroprotection, regeneration or neurodegeneration. Glial reactivity, regarded as the central phenomenon of brain inflammation, has also been used as an early marker of neurotoxicity. To study the mechanisms underlying the glial reactivity, serum-free aggregating brain cell cultures were used as an in vitro model to test the effects of conventional neurotoxicants such as organophosphate pesticides, heavy metals, excitotoxins and mycotoxins. This approach was found to be relevant and justified by the complex cell-cell interactions involved in the brain inflammatory response, the variability of the glial reactions and the multitude of mediators involved. All these variables need to be considered for the elucidation of the specific cellular and molecular reactions and their consequences caused by a given chemical insult.

On the three ist Teories in Creolistics

From the autside it shoud be stated that the limited space to each contribuition in this volume does not alow for an axhaustive treatment of the evolution.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Staphylococcal biofilm formation on the surface of three different calcium phosphate bone grafts: a qualitative and quantitative in vivo analysis.

Differences in physico-chemical characteristics of bone grafts to fill bone defects have been demonstrated to influence in vitro bacterial biofilm formation. Aim of the study was to investigate in vivo staphylococcal biofilm formation on different calcium phosphate bone substitutes. A foreign-body guinea-pig infection model was used. Teflon cages prefilled with β-tricalcium phosphate, calcium-deficient hydroxyapatite, or dicalcium phosphate (DCP) scaffold were implanted subcutaneously. Scaffolds were infected with 2 × 10(3) colony-forming unit of Staphylococcus aureus (two strains) or S. epidermidis and explanted after 3, 24 or 72 h of biofilm formation. Quantitative and qualitative biofilm analysis was performed by sonication followed by viable counts, and microcalorimetry, respectively. Independently of the material, S. aureus formed increasing amounts of biofilm on the surface of all scaffolds over time as determined by both methods. For S. epidermidis, the biofilm amount decreased over time, and no biofilm was detected by microcalorimetry on the DCP scaffolds after 72 h of infection. However, when using a higher S. epidermidis inoculum, increasing amounts of biofilm were formed on all scaffolds as determined by microcalorimetry. No significant variation in staphylococcal in vivo biofilm formation was observed between the different materials tested. This study highlights the importance of in vivo studies, in addition to in vitro studies, when investigating biofilm formation of bone grafts.

Report on a special investigation of Three Rivers Independent Living Corporation for the period July 1, 2005 through May 26, 2006

Report on a special investigation of Three Rivers Independent Living Corporation for the period July 1, 2005 through May 26, 2006

Internalization and homologous desensitization of the GLP-1 receptor depend on phosphorylation of the receptor carboxyl tail at the same three sites.

Homologous desensitization and internalization of the GLP-1 receptor correlate with phosphorylation of the receptor in a 33-amino acid segment of the cytoplasmic tail. Here, we identify the sites of phosphorylation as being three serine doublets located at positions 441/442, 444/445, and 451/452. The role of phosphorylation on homologous desensitization was assessed after stable expression in fibroblasts of the wild type or of mutant receptors in which phosphorylation sites were changed in various combinations to alanines. We showed that desensitization, as measured by a decrease in the maximal production of cAMP after a first exposure of the cells to GLP-1, was strictly dependent on phosphorylation. Furthermore, the number of phosphorylation sites correlated with the extent of desensitization with no, intermediate, or maximal desensitization observed in the presence of one, two, or three phosphorylation sites, respectively. Internalization of the receptor-ligand complex was assessed by measuring the rate of internalization of bound [125I]GLP-1 or the redistribution of the receptor to an endosomal compartment after agonist binding. Our data demonstrate that internalization was prevented in the absence of receptor phosphorylation and that intermediate rates of endocytosis were obtained with receptors containing one or two phosphorylation sites. Thus, homologous desensitization and internalization require phosphorylation of the receptor at the same three sites. However, the differential quantitative impairment of these two processes in the single and double mutants suggests different molecular mechanisms controlling desensitization and internalization.

Purification and ligand binding of a soluble class I major histocompatibility complex molecule consisting of the first three domains of H-2Kd fused to beta 2-microglobulin expressed in the baculovirus-insect cell system.

A recombinant baculovirus encoding a single-chain murine major histocompatibility complex class I molecule in which the first three domains of H-2Kd are fused to beta 2-microglobulin (beta 2-m) via a 15-amino acid linker has been isolated and used to infect lepidopteran cells. A soluble, 391-amino acid single-chain H-2Kd (SC-Kd) molecule of 48 kDa was synthesized and glycosylated in insect cells and could be purified in the absence of detergents by affinity chromatography using the anti-H-2Kd monoclonal antibody SF1.1.1.1. We tested the ability of SC-Kd to bind antigenic peptides using a direct binding assay based on photoaffinity labeling. The photoreactive derivative was prepared from the H-2Kd-restricted Plasmodium berghei circumsporozoite protein (P.b. CS) peptide 253-260 (YIPSAEKI), a probe that we had previously shown to be unable to bind to the H-2Kd heavy chain in infected cells in the absence of co-expressed beta 2-microglobulin. SC-Kd expressed in insect cells did not require additional mouse beta 2-m to bind the photoprobe, indicating that the covalently attached beta 2-m could substitute for the free molecule. Similarly, binding of the P.b. CS photoaffinity probe to the purified SC-Kd molecule was unaffected by the addition of exogenous beta 2-m. This is in contrast to H-2KdQ10, a soluble H-2Kd molecule in which beta 2-m is noncovalently bound to the soluble heavy chain, whose ability to bind the photoaffinity probe is greatly enhanced in the presence of an excess of exogenous beta 2-m. The binding of the probe to SC-Kd was allele-specific, since labeling was selectively inhibited only by antigenic peptides known to be presented by the H-2Kd molecule.

Executive Order Number Three, June 21, 2007

Orders that the use of E-85 fuel in the state's flexible-fuel vehicles shall be increased to at least 60% of fuel purchases, and instructs the Office of Energy Independence and DAS to develop a "State Government E-85 Use Plan .

A mathematical excursion: From the three-door problem to a Cantor-type perfect set

We start with a generalization of the well-known three-door problem:the n-door problem. The solution of this new problem leads us toa beautiful representation system for real numbers in (0,1] as alternated series, known in the literature as Pierce expansions. A closer look to Pierce expansions will take us to some metrical properties of sets defined through the Pierce expansions of its elements. Finally, these metrical properties will enable us to present 'strange' sets, similar to the classical Cantor set.

Three essays in dynamic corporate finance

Summary Throughout my thesis, I elaborate on how real and financing frictions affect corporate decision making under uncertainty, and I explore how firms time their investment and financing decisions given such frictions. While the macroeconomics literature has focused on the impact of real frictions on investment decisions assuming all equity financed firms, the financial economics literature has mainly focused on the study of financing frictions. My thesis therefore assesses the join interaction of real and financing frictions in firms' dynamic investment and financing decisions. My work provides a rationale for the documented poor empirical performance of neoclassical investment models based on the joint effect of real and financing frictions on investment. A major observation relies in how the infrequency of corporate decisions may affect standard empirical tests. My thesis suggests that the book to market sorts commonly used in the empirical asset pricing literature have economic content, as they control for the lumpiness in firms' optimal investment policies. My work also elaborates on the effects of asymmetric information and strategic interaction on firms' investment and financing decisions. I study how firms time their decision to raise public equity when outside investors lack information about their future investment prospects. I derive areal-options model that predicts either cold or hot markets for new stock issues conditional on adverse selection, and I provide a rational approach to study jointly the market timing of corporate decisions and announcement effects in stock returns. My doctoral dissertation therefore contributes to our understanding of how under real and financing frictions may bias standard empirical tests, elaborates on how adverse selection may induce hot and cold markets in new issues' markets, and suggests how the underlying economic behaviour of firms may induce alternative patterns in stock prices.

Identification of three Sorex species with microsatellite markers

Three sibling species of shrews, the common shrew (Sorex araneus), the Valais shrew (S. antinorii) and the Jersey shrew (S. coronatus) are morphologically similar. Different techniques based on karyorypes, morphology, biochemistry and genetic markers have been developed to identify individuals from these taxa. In this paper, we have used multiple microsatellite markers (L13, L14 and L99) to identify 55 dead animals coming from the Tarentaise Valley in France. As some individuals showed an unclear pattern with loci previously thought to be diagnostic (Lugon-Moulin et al. 2000), we have used morphologic measurements (Hausser et al. 1991) to confirm the status of these animals. This analysis clearly showed the limitations of the use of genetic diagnostic markers that have been designed in local populations and then applied to a wider scale. Even if these markers have great advantages over other techniques (i.e. simple to use and do not require samples from living animals), they should always be used with caution. There is always a risk of a locus not being diagnostic in the sampling region or in finding individuals with hybrid genotypes. Additional genetic markers should then be used, simultaneously with other identification techniques, to be sure of the status of the individuals.

The Conversion of Four Lane Undivded Urban Roadways to Three Lane Facilities, 2007

In recent years, many traffic engineers have advocated converting four-lane undivided urban streets to threelane two-way left-turn facilities. A number of these conversions have been successfully implemented. Accident rates have decreased while corridor and intersection levels of service remained acceptable. This conversion concept is yet another viable alternative “tool” to place in our urban safety/congestion toolbox.

Review of the type material of three species of Polietina Schnabl & Dziedzicki (Diptera, Muscidae)

The type material of three species of Polietina Schnabl & Dziedzicki, 1911 was examined. Polietina flavidicincta (Stein, 1904) is redescribed and a lectotype is designated; P. stellata (Couri, 1982) is considered junior synonym of P. flavithorax (Stein, 1904), and for the latter a lectotype is designated. The neotype previously designated is considered invalid.