Non-existence of competitive equilibria with dynamically inconsistent preferences

This paper shows the robust non-existence of competitive equilibria even in a simple three period representative agent economy with dynamically inconsistent preferences. We distinguish between a sophisticated and naive representative agent. Even when underlying preferences are monotone and convex, at given prices, we show by example that the induced preference of the sophisticated representative agent over choices in first-period markets is both non-convex and satiated. Even allowing for negative prices, the market-clearing allocation is not contained in the convex hull of demand. Finally, with a naive representative agent, we show that perfect foresight is incompatible with market clearing and individual optimization at given prices.

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters Executive summary Nature of the problem • Most regional watersheds in Europe constitute managed human territories importing large amounts of new reactive nitrogen. • As a consequence, groundwater, surface freshwater and coastal seawater are undergoing severe nitrogen contamination and/or eutrophication problems. Approaches • A comprehensive evaluation of net anthropogenic inputs of reactive nitrogen (NANI) through atmospheric deposition, crop N fixation,fertiliser use and import of food and feed has been carried out for all European watersheds. A database on N, P and Si fluxes delivered at the basin outlets has been assembled. • A number of modelling approaches based on either statistical regression analysis or mechanistic description of the processes involved in nitrogen transfer and transformations have been developed for relating N inputs to watersheds to outputs into coastal marine ecosystems. Key findings/state of knowledge • Throughout Europe, NANI represents 3700 kgN/km2/yr (range, 0–8400 depending on the watershed), i.e. five times the background rate of natural N2 fixation. • A mean of approximately 78% of NANI does not reach the basin outlet, but instead is stored (in soils, sediments or ground water) or eliminated to the atmosphere as reactive N forms or as N2. • N delivery to the European marine coastal zone totals 810 kgN/km2/yr (range, 200–4000 depending on the watershed), about four times the natural background. In areas of limited availability of silica, these inputs cause harmful algal blooms. Major uncertainties/challenges • The exact dimension of anthropogenic N inputs to watersheds is still imperfectly known and requires pursuing monitoring programmes and data integration at the international level. • The exact nature of ‘retention’ processes, which potentially represent a major management lever for reducing N contamination of water resources, is still poorly understood. • Coastal marine eutrophication depends to a large degree on local morphological and hydrographic conditions as well as on estuarine processes, which are also imperfectly known. Recommendations • Better control and management of the nitrogen cascade at the watershed scale is required to reduce N contamination of ground- and surface water, as well as coastal eutrophication. • In spite of the potential of these management measures, there is no choice at the European scale but to reduce the primary inputs of reactive nitrogen to watersheds, through changes in agriculture, human diet and other N flows related to human activity.

Impact of a drier Early-Mid-Holocene climate upon Amazonian forests

This paper uses a palaeoecological approach to examine the impact of drier climatic conditions of the Early-Mid-Holocene (ca 8000-4000 years ago) upon Amazonia's forests and their fire regimes. Palaeovegetation (pollen data) and palaeofire (charcoal) records are synthesized from 20 sites within the present tropical forest biome, and the underlying causes of any emergent patterns or changes are explored by reference to independent palaeoclimate data and present-day patterns of precipitation, forest cover and fire activity across Amazonia. During the Early-Mid-Holocene, Andean cloud forest taxa were replaced by lowland tree taxa as the cloud base rose while lowland ecotonal areas, which are presently covered by evergreen rainforest, were instead dominated by savannahs and/or semi-deciduous dry forests. Elsewhere in the Amazon Basin there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in patterns of vegetation disturbance and fire, which probably reflects the complex heterogeneous patterns in precipitation and seasonality across the basin, and the interactions between climate change, drought- and fire susceptibility of the forests, and Palaeo-Indian land use. Our analysis shows that the forest biome in most parts of Amazonia appears to have been remarkably resilient to climatic conditions significantly drier than those of today, despite widespread evidence of forest burning. Only in ecotonal areas is there evidence of biome replacement in the Holocene. From this palaeoecological perspective, we argue against the Amazon forest 'dieback' scenario simulated for the future.

A rate and state friction law for saline ice

Sea ice friction models are necessary to predict the nature of interactions between sea ice floes. These interactions are of interest on a range of scales, for example, to predict loads on engineering structures in icy waters or to understand the basin-scale motion of sea ice. Many models use Amonton's friction law due to its simplicity. More advanced models allow for hydrodynamic lubrication and refreezing of asperities; however, modeling these processes leads to greatly increased complexity. In this paper we propose, by analogy with rock physics, that a rate- and state-dependent friction law allows us to incorporate memory (and thus the effects of lubrication and bonding) into ice friction models without a great increase in complexity. We support this proposal with experimental data on both the laboratory (∼0.1 m) and ice tank (∼1 m) scale. These experiments show that the effects of static contact under normal load can be incorporated into a friction model. We find the parameters for a first-order rate and state model to be A = 0.310, B = 0.382, and μ0 = 0.872. Such a model then allows us to make predictions about the nature of memory effects in moving ice-ice contacts.

Climate change projections and selected impacts for Vietnam

In September 2013, the 5th Assessment Report (5AR) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been released. Taking the 5AR cli-mate change scenarios into account, the World Bank published an earli-er report on climate change and its impacts on selected hot spot re-gions, including Southeast Asia. Currently, dynamical and statistical-dynamical downscaling efforts are underway to obtain higher resolution and more robust regional climate change projections for tropical South-east Asia, including Vietnam. Such initiatives are formalized under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Coordinated Regional Dynamic Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia and Southeast Asia and also take place in climate change impact projects such as the joint Vietnam-ese-German project “Environmental and Water Protection Technologies of Coastal Zones in Vietnam (EWATEC-COAST)”. In this contribution, the lat-est assessments for changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and tropical cyclones (TCs) under the 5AR Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 are reviewed. Special emphasis is put on changes in extreme events like heat waves and/or heavy precipita-tion. A regional focus is Vietnam south of 16°N. A continued increase in mean near surface temperature is projected, reaching up to 5°C at the end of this century in northern Vietnam un-der the high greenhouse-gas forcing scenario RCP8.5. Overall, project-ed changes in annual precipitation are small, but there is a tendency of more rainfall in the boreal winter dry season. Unprecedented heat waves and an increase in extreme precipitation events are projected by both global and regional climate models. Globally, TCs are projected to decrease in number, but an increase in intensity of peak winds and rain-fall in the inner core region is estimated. Though an assessment of changes in land-falling frequency in Vietnam is uncertain due to difficul-ties in assessing changes in TC tracks, some work indicates a reduction in the number of land-falling TCs in Vietnam. Sea level may rise by 75-100 cm until the end of the century with the Vietnamese coastline experienc-ing 10-15% higher rise than on global average. Given the large rice and aquaculture production in the Mekong and Red River Deltas, that are both prone to TC-related storm surges and flooding, this poses a challenge to foodsecurity and protection of coastal population and assets.

Detection of recent changes in climate using meteorological data from south-eastern Bangladesh

Analysis of meteorological records from four stations (Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Rangamati, Sitakunda) in south-eastern Bangladesh show coherent changes in climate over the past three decades. Mean maximum daily temperatures have increased between 1980 and 2013 by ca. 0.4 to 0.6°C per decade, with changes of comparable magnitude in individual seasons. The increase in mean maximum daily temperature is associated with decreased cloud cover and wind speed, particularly in the pre- and post-monsoon seasons. During these two seasons, the correlation between changes in maximum temperature and clouds is between -0.5 and -0.7; the correlation with wind speed is weaker although similar values are obtained in some seasons. Changes in mean daily minimum (and hence mean) temperature differ between the northern and southern part of the basin: northern stations show a decrease in mean daily minimum temperature during the post-monsoon season of between 0.2 and 0.5°C per decade while southern stations show an increase of ca. 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. In contrast to the significant changes in temperature, there is no trend in mean or total precipitation at any station. However, there is a significant increase in the number of rain days at the northern sites during the monsoon season, with an increase per decade of 3 days in Sitakunda and 7 days at Rangamati. These climate changes could have a significant impact on the hydrology of the Halda Basin, which supplies water to Chittagong and is the major pisciculture centre in Bangladesh.

Interactions between wind-blown snow redistribution and melt ponds in a coupled ocean–sea ice model

Introducing a parameterization of the interactions between wind-driven snow depth changes and melt pond evolution allows us to improve large scale models. In this paper we have implemented an explicit melt pond scheme and, for the first time, a wind dependant snow redistribution model and new snow thermophysics into a coupled ocean–sea ice model. The comparison of long-term mean statistics of melt pond fractions against observations demonstrates realistic melt pond cover on average over Arctic sea ice, but a clear underestimation of the pond coverage on the multi-year ice (MYI) of the western Arctic Ocean. The latter shortcoming originates from the concealing effect of persistent snow on forming ponds, impeding their growth. Analyzing a second simulation with intensified snow drift enables the identification of two distinct modes of sensitivity in the melt pond formation process. First, the larger proportion of wind-transported snow that is lost in leads directly curtails the late spring snow volume on sea ice and facilitates the early development of melt ponds on MYI. In contrast, a combination of higher air temperatures and thinner snow prior to the onset of melting sometimes make the snow cover switch to a regime where it melts entirely and rapidly. In the latter situation, seemingly more frequent on first-year ice (FYI), a smaller snow volume directly relates to a reduced melt pond cover. Notwithstanding, changes in snow and water accumulation on seasonal sea ice is naturally limited, which lessens the impacts of wind-blown snow redistribution on FYI, as compared to those on MYI. At the basin scale, the overall increased melt pond cover results in decreased ice volume via the ice-albedo feedback in summer, which is experienced almost exclusively by MYI.

Thermal analysis and structural investigation of different dental composite resins

The structural and thermal properties of three different dental composite resins, Filtek (TM) Supreme XT, Filtek (TM) Z-250 and TPHA (R)(3) were investigated in this study. The internal structures of uncured and cured resins with blue light-emitting diodes (LEDs) were examined by Micro-Raman spectroscopy. Thermal analysis techniques as DSC, TG and DTG methods were used to investigate the temperature characteristics, as glass transition (T (g) ), degradation, and the thermal stability of the resins. The results showed that the TPHA (R)(3) and Filtek (TM) Supreme XT presented very similar T (g) values, 48 and 50A degrees C, respectively, while the Filtek (TM) Z-250 composite resin presented a higher one, 58A degrees C. AFM microscope was utilized in order to analyze the sample morphologies, which possess different fillers. The composed resin Filtek (TM) Z-250 has a well interconnected more homogeneous morphology, suggesting a better degree of conversion correlated to the glass phase transition temperature. The modes of vibration of interest in the resin were investigated using Raman spectroscopy. It was possible to observe the bands representative for the C=C (1630 cm(-1)) and C=O(1700 cm(-1)) vibrations were studied with respect to their compositions and polymerization. It was observed that the Filtek (TM) Z -250 resin presents the best result related to the thermal properties and polymerization after light curing among the other resins.

”När man kollar på bilden tänker man så här” : en receptionsstudie av gymnasieelevers uppfattning om bilder som kunskapskällor i historieundervisningen

Images are used in history education for a variety of reasons, not least to generate interest through a better understanding of historical events and people. The aim of this study was to investigate how historical pictures, either illustrated or documentary/photographic, can be used as a resource for activating and improving pupils' historical empathy, in the way described by Stéphane Lévasque. I conducted a reception study on five different focus groups consisting of pupils from different upper secondary schools in Sweden. The pupils varied with regard to number of credits for admission to upper secondary school. A sixth group of pupils was interviewed as a contrasting control group in order to add perspective to the results. The discussions were based on the pupils' interpretations of 34 selected pictures, all of which were taken from the most common history textbooks. Each pupil was asked to choose the picture he/she felt was the most representative historical image. On the basis of the strategies used by the pupils when interpreting the pictures and discussing them, the material was analysed in accordance with Lévesque's categories: imagination, historical contextualisation and morals. The last category, morals, was further divided into three sub-categories: sense of justice, sympathy and progression. The reflections of the pupils and the degree of contextualisation varied. It appeared that the pupils were less inclined to discuss assumptions about the persons in the pictures; instead they chose to discuss the historical context in question. The pictures in this study did not seem to trigger the pupils to fabricate anachronistic reasoning about history; when they did produce lengthy reasoning, it was contextual, structural and metahistorical. In this context, the pupils who belonged to the group with the highest average of credits showed some signs of reflection on the basis of historical context and some criticism about the historical sources. On no occasion did any of the pupils choose a picture as a concrete expression of injustice. One of the questions this study aimed to explore was whether a lack of historical context affects how pictures trigger emotions and reasoning on the basis of moral aspects. Some of the pupils displayed moral standpoints, primarily the degree of morals concerning injustice. One possible interpretation could be that the feeling of being unfairly treated and subjected to insulting behaviour and social injustice was something the pupils could relate to. The group of pupils who had not yet studied history at upper secondary school, the control group, generally made reflections using this sort of reasoning when they discussed the historical aspects of the pictures.

Volunteered Geographic Information For Water Management: A Prototype Architecture

Driven by Web 2.0 technology and the almost ubiquitous presence of mobile devices, Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) is knowing an unprecedented growth. These notable technological advancements have opened fruitful perspectives also in the field of water management and protection, raising the demand for a reconsideration of policies which also takes into account the emerging trend of VGI. This research investigates the opportunity of leveraging such technology to involve citizens equipped with common mobile devices (e.g. tablets and smartphones) in a campaign of report of water-related phenomena. The work is carried out in collaboration with ADBPO - Autorità di bacino del fiume Po (Po river basin Authority), i.e. the entity responsible for the environmental planning and protection of the basin of river Po. This is the longest Italian river, spreading over eight among the twenty Italian Regions and characterized by complex environmental issues. To enrich ADBPO official database with user-generated contents, a FOSS (Free and Open Source Software) architecture was designed which allows not only user field-data collection, but also data Web publication through standard protocols. Open Data Kit suite allows users to collect georeferenced multimedia information using mobile devices equipped with location sensors (e.g. the GPS). Users can report a number of environmental emergencies, problems or simple points of interest related to the Po river basin, taking pictures of them and providing other contextual information. Field-registered data is sent to a server and stored into a PostgreSQL database with PostGIS spatial extension. GeoServer provides then data dissemination on the Web, while specific OpenLayers-based viewers were built to optimize data access on both desktop computers and mobile devices. Besides proving the suitability of FOSS in the frame of VGI, the system represents a successful prototype for the exploitation of user local, real-time information aimed at managing and protecting water resources.

Contribuição ao estudo petrográfico e geoquímico dos carvões da jazida de Chico Lomã Santo Antônio da Patrulha

São apresentados os resultados dos estudos petrográfico e geoquímico dos carvões da jazida de Chico Lomã, localizada no município de Santo Antônio da Patrulha, no nordeste do Rio Grande da Sul, situada entre as jazidas de Morungava (limite oeste) e Santa Terezinha (limite leste). Na sondagem estudada - 02-TG-88-RS - foram identificadas 7 camadas e 5 leitos de carvão. Entre estes, apenas as camadas E e F apresentam suficiente extensão lateral para serem consideradas economicamente exploráveis. Os carvões são ricos em matéria mineral, constituída, principalmente, de argila. O grupo maceral mais freqüente é o da vitrinita. No que diz respeito aos microlitotipos, ocorre, em geral, o predomínio de carbominerita. Foram identificadas 3 associações de microlitotipos, determinando a existência das seguintes faciologias: ambiente telmático (predomínio de vitrita-clarita), limo-telmático (predomínio de carbargilita-vitrita) e límnico (predomínio de carbargilita-durita-trimacerita). Os carvões apresentam rank que varia de betuminoso alto volátil C/sub-betuminoso A a betuminoso alto volátil A (ASTM). A utilização tecnológica dos carvões das camadas E e F, na siderurgia, pode ser sugerida, mesmo considerando-se seu elevado teor em cinza, desde que sejam submetidos a processos de beneficiamento. Em relação aos argilo-minerais, constatou-se a presença de caolinita, aparentemente relacionada ao conteúdo da matéria orgânica, e do interestratificado ilita-montmorilonita, provavelmente de origem detrítica. Foram identificados 3 grupos de elementos traços : associados à fração orgânica (Co, Ge, Ni, V e Zr), elementos intermediários (Cr, Cu e Sr) e associados à fração inorgânica (B, Ba e Ga). Observou-se, também, que os elementos do primeiro grupo, de maneira geral, se enriquecem nos litotipos com maior conteúdo de vitrênio, ao contrário dos elementos do último grupo que tendem a se enriquecer no carvão fosco e nos folhelhos. Os estudos realizados indicam um paleoambiente de água doce, no qual, provavelmente, tenham ocorrido pequenas ingressões marinhas entre as fases de formação de turfa.

Estudo experimental de microrreservatórios para controle do escoamento superficial

O crescimento desordenado das cidades tem gerado muitos problemas de infraestrutura e impactos ao meio ambiente. No que se refere aos recursos hídricos, problemas de abastecimento, poluição e enchentes são cada vez mais constantes. À medida que a cidade se urbaniza e se impermeabiliza, vários são os impactos que vão atuar no sentido de provocar ou agravar as enchentes urbanas. No caso da drenagem urbana é preciso repensar o que vem sendo feito, buscando soluções alternativas às atualmente apresentadas, uma vez que estas não têm se mostrado eficientes. Uma possível solução para estes problemas é a aplicação de medidas de controle do escoamento na fonte, dentre elas o microrreservatório de detenção. Baseando-se na busca de soluções para os problemas citados, este trabalho tem o objetivo geral de verificar experimentalmente o funcionamento de microrreservatórios de detenção no controle da geração do escoamento superficial. Para isso foi construído um módulo experimental nas dependências do IPH, composto por um microrreservatório de 1m3, monitorado através de linígrafos que registram as vazões de entrada e saída, recebendo contribuição de uma área de 337,5m2. O período de monitoramento iniciou em agosto de 2000 e se estendeu até janeiro de 2001. De posse dos dados coletados foi possível fazer uma análise da eficiência deste dispositivo no controle do escoamento superficial, bem como estudar a real necessidade de manutenção da estrutura. Também foi feita uma análise do impacto da presença de sedimentos (folhagens) na água de escoamento nas estruturas de descarga. O trabalho também deixa uma contribuição no que se refere a critérios de projeto e dimensionamento de estruturas desta natureza. Finalmente foi possível concluir que o sistema é eficiente no controle da vazão de pico, porém o reservatório não permitiu um aumento no tempo de resposta da bacia.

Informação, participação e cobrança pelo uso da água: um relato do processo no comitê para integração da bacia do rio Paraíba do Sul

Esta dissertação relata o uso da informação no processo decisório havido na bacia do rio Paraíba do Sul em torno da implementação da cobrança pelo uso da água bruta,instituída pela Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos. De grande importância no cenárionacional essa bacia hidrográfica foi escolhida como foco de estudo por se tratar de umaexperiência pioneira de implementação de um Sistema de Gestão de Recursos Hídricosem rios de domínio da União, tendo como pano de fundo a complexidade do federalismobrasileiro e a falta de tradição em processos participativos para tomada de decisão nestecampo. O estudo mostra, ainda, como a cobrança pelo uso da água foi um fator deaglutinação dos atores da bacia, como o capital social acumulado foi fundamental para oprocesso de negociação, e finalmente, como o uso da informação técnica, ao contráriodo que se imaginava, proporcionou avanços significativos na metodologia e critériospropostos para implementação desse importante instrumento de gestão das águas.

O Conselho Municipal de Desenvolvimento Sustentável (CMDS) e a gestão de recursos hídricos: um estudo na Bacia do Rio Itabapoana (RJ)

O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar a forma de atuação do CMDS, e sua contribuição para a gestão dos recursos hídricos nos cinco municípios do Rio de Janeiro pertencentes à bacia do rio Itabapoana. O presente estudo foi conduzido a partir de uma discussão teórica sobre os temas: desenvolvimento local, cidadania, desenvolvimento local com cidadania e gestão social. Posteriormente, foram realizadas entrevistas temáticas, baseadas no método não probabilístico, com uma amostra composta por 38 pessoas, entre conselheiros do CMDS (membros do poder público e sociedade civil organizada), técnico, consultores e gestores do Sebrae/RJ. No tratamento dos dados foi utilizada a análise de discurso. Foram identificados aspectos negativos e positivos no que diz respeito à atuação e funcionamento do Conselho nos municípios analisados. Mesmo assim, pode-se verificar que grande parte dos conselheiros tem experiência anterior em Conselhos e movimentos sociais, e que o Projeto Managé, por meio da atuação dos CMDS, ajudou a construir uma identidade territorial para a bacia e também despertou a necessidade de maior conscientização e preservação do meio ambiente. Pode-se concluir que a forma de atuação do CMDS depende da interação e do nível de comprometimento do poder público e da sociedade civil organizada. Portanto, as condições institucionais locais exercem importante influência nas formas de mobilização social e participação dos indivíduos, visto que o processo de gerenciamento de recursos hídricos da bacia encontra-se ainda em fase de construção

Os desafios à implantação do modelo de gestão dos recursos hídricos estabelecidos pela lei 9.4333

This article objectified to identify the main challenges to the implementation of the system of management of the water features established by Law 9.433/97, in special the restrictive factors to the installation of Committees of Basin and Hidric Resources Agencies and the challenges to the implementation and management of the basin plans, of the charge and the grant for the hydric resources uses. The analysis is based in the South Paraiba river case, beyond the experience in other countries. The reflections on the gotten information had led to the conclusion of that the magnifying and change of the institucional base of decision, the integration of the entities of water features, the institucional qualification and technique, the social mobilization, the decentralization of the financial features, the integration of the management in frontier basins and the implementation of management systems based in the consensus are the biggest challenges to the execulte of the federal law.