A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

Chemical evolution models for spiral disks: the Milky Way, M31, and M33

Context. The distribution of chemical abundances and their variation with time are important tools for understanding the chemical evolution of galaxies. In particular, the study of chemical evolution models can improve our understanding of the basic assumptions made when modelling our Galaxy and other spirals. Aims. We test a standard chemical evolution model for spiral disks in the Local Universe and study the influence of a threshold gas density and different efficiencies in the star formation rate (SFR) law on radial gradients of abundance, gas, and SFR. The model is then applied to specific galaxies. Methods. We adopt a one-infall chemical evolution model where the Galactic disk forms inside-out by means of infall of gas, and we test different thresholds and efficiencies in the SFR. The model is scaled to the disk properties of three Local Group galaxies (the Milky Way, M31 and M33) by varying its dependence on the star formation efficiency and the timescale for the infall of gas onto the disk. Results. Using this simple model, we are able to reproduce most of the observed constraints available in the literature for the studied galaxies. The radial oxygen abundance gradients and their time evolution are studied in detail. The present day abundance gradients are more sensitive to the threshold than to other parameters, while their temporal evolutions are more dependent on the chosen SFR efficiency. A variable efficiency along the galaxy radius can reproduce the present day gas distribution in the disk of spirals with prominent arms. The steepness in the distribution of stellar surface density differs from massive to lower mass disks, owing to the different star formation histories. Conclusions. The most massive disks seem to have evolved faster (i.e., with more efficient star formation) than the less massive ones, thus suggesting a downsizing in star formation for spirals. The threshold and the efficiency of star formation play a very important role in the chemical evolution of spiral disks. For instance, an efficiency varying with radius can be used to regulate the star formation. The oxygen abundance gradient can steepen or flatten in time depending on the choice of this parameter.

Age distribution of the central stars of galactic disk planetary nebulae

Context. Determination of the ages of central stars of planetary nebulae (CSPN) is a complex problem, and there is presently no single method that can be generally applied. We have developed several methods of estimating the ages of CSPN, based on both the observed nebular properties and some properties of the stars themselves. Aims. Our aim is to estimate the ages and the age distribution of CSPN and to compare the derived results with mass and age determinations of CSPN and white dwarfs based on empirical determinations of these quantities. Methods. We considered a sample of planetary nebulae in the galactic disk, most of which (similar to 69%) are located in the solar neighbourhood, within 3 kpc from the Sun. We discuss several methods of deriving the age distribution of CSPN, namely; (i) the use of an age-metallicity relation that also depends on the galactocentric distance; (ii) the use of an age-metallicity relation obtained for the galactic disk; and (iii) the determination of ages from the central star masses obtained from the observed nitrogen abundances. Results. We estimated the age distribution of CSPN with average uncertainties of 1-2 Gyr, and compared our results with the expected distribution based both on the observed mass distribution of white dwarfs and on the age distribution derived from available mass distributions of CSPN. Based on our derived age distributions, we conclude that most CSPN in the galactic disk have ages under 6 Gyr, and that the age distribution is peaked around 2-4 Gyr.

MASS DISTRIBUTION IN HICKSON COMPACT GROUPS OF GALAXIES

This study presents the mass distribution for a sample of 18 late-type galaxies in nine Hickson compact groups. We used Ha rotation curves (RCs) from high-resolution two-dimensional velocity fields of Fabry-Perot observations and the J-band photometry from the Two Micron All Sky Survey, in order to determine the dark halo and the visible matter distributions. The study compares two halo density profiles, an isothermal core-like distribution, and a cuspy one. We also compare their visible and dark matter distributions with those of galaxies belonging to cluster and field galaxies coming from two samples: 40 cluster galaxies of Barnes et al. and 35 field galaxies of Spano et al. The central halo surface density is found to be constant with respect to the total absolute magnitude similar to what is found for the isolated galaxies. This suggests that the halo density is independent of galaxy type and environment. We have found that core-like density profiles better fit the RCs than cuspy-like ones. No major differences have been found between field, cluster, and compact group galaxies with respect to their dark halo density profiles.

Galaxy distribution and evolution around a sample of 2dF groups

Context. We study galaxy evolution and spatial patterns in the surroundings of a sample of 2dF groups. Aims. Our aim is to find evidence of galaxy evolution and clustering out to 10 times the virial radius of the groups and so redefine their properties according to the spatial patterns in the fields and relate them to galaxy evolution. Methods. Group members and interlopers were redefined after the identification of gaps in the redshift distribution. We then used exploratory spatial statistics based on the the second moment of the Ripley function to probe the anisotropy in the galaxy distribution around the groups. Results. We found an important anticorrelation between anisotropy around groups and the fraction of early-type galaxies in these fields. Our results illustrate how the dynamical state of galaxy groups can be ascertained by the systematic study of their neighborhoods. This is an important achievement, since the correct estimate of the extent to which galaxies are affected by the group environment and follow large-scale filamentary structure is relevant to understanding the process of galaxy clustering and evolution in the Universe.

Hormone-regulated expression and distribution of versican in mouse uterine tissues

Background: Remodeling of the extracellular matrix is one of the most striking features observed in the uterus during the estrous cycle and after hormone replacement. Versican (VER) is a hyaluronan-binding proteoglycan that undergoes RNA alternative splicing, generating four distinct isoforms. This study analyzed the synthesis and distribution of VER in mouse uterine tissues during the estrous cycle, in ovariectomized (OVX) animals and after 17beta-estradiol (E2) and medroxyprogesterone (MPA) treatments, either alone or in combination. Methods: Uteri from mice in all phases of the estrous cycle, and animals subjected to ovariectomy and hormone replacement were collected for immunoperoxidase staining for versican, as well as PCR and quantitative Real Time PCR. Results: In diestrus and proestrus, VER was exclusively expressed in the endometrial stroma. In estrus and metaestrus, VER was present in both endometrial stroma and myometrium. In OVX mice, VER immunoreaction was abolished in all uterine tissues. VER expression was restored by E2, MPA and E2+MPA treatments. Real Time PCR analysis showed that VER expression increases considerably in the MPA-treated group. Analysis of mRNA identified isoforms V0, V1 and V3 in the mouse uterus. Conclusion: These results show that the expression of versican in uterine tissues is modulated by ovarian steroid hormones, in a tissue-specific manner. VER is induced in the myometrium exclusively by E2, whereas MPA induces VER deposition only in the endometrial stroma.

Mechanisms of Vascular Damage by Hemorrhagic Snake Venom Metalloproteinases: Tissue Distribution and In Situ Hydrolysis

Background: Envenoming by viper snakes constitutes an important public health problem in Brazil and other developing countries. Local hemorrhage is an important symptom of these accidents and is correlated with the action of snake venom metalloproteinases (SVMPs). The degradation of vascular basement membrane has been proposed as a key event for the capillary vessel disruption. However, SVMPs that present similar catalytic activity towards extracellular matrix proteins differ in their hemorrhagic activity, suggesting that other mechanisms might be contributing to the accumulation of SVMPs at the snakebite area allowing capillary disruption. Methodology/Principal Findings: In this work, we compared the tissue distribution and degradation of extracellular matrix proteins induced by jararhagin (highly hemorrhagic SVMP) and BnP1 (weakly hemorrhagic SVMP) using the mouse skin as experimental model. Jararhagin induced strong hemorrhage accompanied by hydrolysis of collagen fibers in the hypodermis and a marked degradation of type IV collagen at the vascular basement membrane. In contrast, BnP1 induced only a mild hemorrhage and did not disrupt collagen fibers or type IV collagen. Injection of Alexa488-labeled jararhagin revealed fluorescent staining around capillary vessels and co-localization with basement membrane type IV collagen. The same distribution pattern was detected with jararhagin-C (disintegrin-like/cysteine-rich domains of jararhagin). In opposition, BnP1 did not accumulate in the tissues. Conclusions/Significance: These results show a particular tissue distribution of hemorrhagic toxins accumulating at the basement membrane. This probably occurs through binding to collagens, which are drastically hydrolyzed at the sites of hemorrhagic lesions. Toxin accumulation near blood vessels explains enhanced catalysis of basement membrane components, resulting in the strong hemorrhagic activity of SVMPs. This is a novel mechanism that underlies the difference between hemorrhagic and non-hemorrhagic SVMPs, improving the understanding of snakebite pathology.

Characterization of subgraph relationships and distribution in complex networks

A network can be analyzed at different topological scales, ranging from single nodes to motifs, communities, up to the complete structure. We propose a novel approach which extends from single nodes to the whole network level by considering non-overlapping subgraphs (i.e. connected components) and their interrelationships and distribution through the network. Though such subgraphs can be completely general, our methodology focuses on the cases in which the nodes of these subgraphs share some special feature, such as being critical for the proper operation of the network. The methodology of subgraph characterization involves two main aspects: (i) the generation of histograms of subgraph sizes and distances between subgraphs and (ii) a merging algorithm, developed to assess the relevance of nodes outside subgraphs by progressively merging subgraphs until the whole network is covered. The latter procedure complements the histograms by taking into account the nodes lying between subgraphs, as well as the relevance of these nodes to the overall subgraph interconnectivity. Experiments were carried out using four types of network models and five instances of real-world networks, in order to illustrate how subgraph characterization can help complementing complex network-based studies.

Relationship Between Surface Topography and Energy Density Distribution of Er,Cr:YSGG Beam on Irradiated Dentin: An Atomic Force Microscopy Study

Objective: The aim of this study was to assess by atomic force microscopy (AFM) the effect of Er,Cr:YSGG laser application on the surface microtopography of radicular dentin. Background: Lasers have been used for various purposes in dentistry, where they are clinically effective when used in an appropriate manner. The Er, Cr: YSGG laser can be used for caries prevention when settings are below the ablation threshold. Materials and Methods: Four specimens of bovine dentin were irradiated using an Er, Cr:YSGG laser (lambda = 2.78 mu m), at a repetition rate of 20 Hz, with a 750-mu m-diameter sapphire tip and energy density of 2.8 J/cm(2) (12.5 mJ/pulse). After irradiation, surface topography was analyzed by AFM using a Si probe in tapping mode. Quantitative and qualitative information concerning the arithmetic average roughness (Ra) and power spectral density analyses were obtained from central, intermediate, and peripheral areas of laser pulses and compared with data from nonirradiated samples. Results: Dentin Ra for different areas were as follows: central, 261.26 (+/- 21.65) nm; intermediate, 83.48 (+/- 6.34) nm; peripheral, 45.8 (+/- 13.47) nm; and nonirradiated, 35.18 (+/- 2.9) nm. The central region of laser pulses presented higher ablation of intertubular dentin, with about 340-760 nm height, while intermediate, peripheral, and nonirradiated regions presented no difference in height of peritubular and interperitubular dentin. Conclusion: According to these results, we can assume that even when used at a low-energy density parameter, Er, Cr: YSGG laser can significantly alter the microtopography of radicular dentin, which is an important characteristic to be considered when laser is used for clinical applications.

An overview of the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment 2008 (AMAZE-08)

The Amazon Basin provides an excellent environment for studying the sources, transformations, and properties of natural aerosol particles and the resulting links between biological processes and climate. With this framework in mind, the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment (AMAZE-08), carried out from 7 February to 14 March 2008 during the wet season in the central Amazon Basin, sought to understand the formation, transformations, and cloud-forming properties of fine-and coarse-mode biogenic aerosol particles, especially as related to their effects on cloud activation and regional climate. Special foci included (1) the production mechanisms of secondary organic components at a pristine continental site, including the factors regulating their temporal variability, and (2) predicting and understanding the cloud-forming properties of biogenic particles at such a site. In this overview paper, the field site and the instrumentation employed during the campaign are introduced. Observations and findings are reported, including the large-scale context for the campaign, especially as provided by satellite observations. New findings presented include: (i) a particle number-diameter distribution from 10 nm to 10 mu m that is representative of the pristine tropical rain forest and recommended for model use; (ii) the absence of substantial quantities of primary biological particles in the submicron mode as evidenced by mass spectral characterization; (iii) the large-scale production of secondary organic material; (iv) insights into the chemical and physical properties of the particles as revealed by thermodenuder-induced changes in the particle number-diameter distributions and mass spectra; and (v) comparisons of ground-based predictions and satellite-based observations of hydrometeor phase in clouds. A main finding of AMAZE-08 is the dominance of secondary organic material as particle components. The results presented here provide mechanistic insight and quantitative parameters that can serve to increase the accuracy of models of the formation, transformations, and cloud-forming properties of biogenic natural aerosol particles, especially as related to their effects on cloud activation and regional climate.

Impact of Manaus City on the Amazon Green Ocean atmosphere: ozone production, precursor sensitivity and aerosol load

As a contribution to the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Cooperative LBA Airborne Regional Experiment (LBA-CLAIRE-2001) field campaign in the heart of the Amazon Basin, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of the urban plume of Manaus City during the wet-to-dry season transition period in July 2001. During the flights, we performed vertical stacks of crosswind transects in the urban outflow downwind of Manaus City, measuring a comprehensive set of trace constituents including O(3), NO, NO(2), CO, VOC, CO(2), and H(2)O. Aerosol loads were characterized by concentrations of total aerosol number (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and by light scattering properties. Measurements over pristine rainforest areas during the campaign showed low levels of pollution from biomass burning or industrial emissions, representative of wet season background conditions. The urban plume of Manaus City was found to be joined by plumes from power plants south of the city, all showing evidence of very strong photochemical ozone formation. One episode is discussed in detail, where a threefold increase in ozone mixing ratios within the atmospheric boundary layer occurred within a 100 km travel distance downwind of Manaus. Observation-based estimates of the ozone production rates in the plume reached 15 ppb h(-1). Within the plume core, aerosol concentrations were strongly enhanced, with Delta CN/Delta CO ratios about one order of magnitude higher than observed in Amazon biomass burning plumes. Delta CN/Delta CO ratios tended to decrease with increasing transport time, indicative of a significant reduction in particle number by coagulation, and without substantial new particle nucleation occurring within the time/space observed. While in the background atmosphere a large fraction of the total particle number served as CCN (about 60-80% at 0.6% supersaturation), the CCN/CN ratios within the plume indicated that only a small fraction (16 +/- 12 %) of the plume particles were CCN. The fresh plume aerosols showed relatively weak light scattering efficiency. The CO-normalized CCN concentrations and light scattering coefficients increased with plume age in most cases, suggesting particle growth by condensation of soluble organic or inorganic species. We used a Single Column Chemistry and Transport Model (SCM) to infer the urban pollution emission fluxes of Manaus City, implying observed mixing ratios of CO, NO(x) and VOC. The model can reproduce the temporal/spatial distribution of ozone enhancements in the Manaus plume, both with and without accounting for the distinct (high NO(x)) contribution by the power plants; this way examining the sensitivity of ozone production to changes in the emission rates of NO(x). The VOC reactivity in the Manaus region was dominated by a high burden of biogenic isoprene from the background rainforest atmosphere, and therefore NO(x) control is assumed to be the most effective ozone abatement strategy. Both observations and models show that the agglomeration of NO(x) emission sources, like power plants, in a well-arranged area can decrease the ozone production efficiency in the near field of the urban populated cores. But on the other hand remote areas downwind of the city then bear the brunt, being exposed to increased ozone production and N-deposition. The simulated maximum stomatal ozone uptake fluxes were 4 nmol m(-2) s(-1) close to Manaus, and decreased only to about 2 nmol m(-2) s(-1) within a travel distance >1500 km downwind from Manaus, clearly exceeding the critical threshold level for broadleaf trees. Likewise, the simulated N deposition close to Manaus was similar to 70 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) decreasing only to about 30 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) after three days of simulation.

Cloud condensation nuclei in pristine tropical rainforest air of Amazonia: size-resolved measurements and modeling of atmospheric aerosol composition and CCN activity

Atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are key elements of the hydrological cycle and climate. We have measured and characterized CCN at water vapor supersaturations in the range of S=0.10-0.82% in pristine tropical rainforest air during the AMAZE-08 campaign in central Amazonia. The effective hygroscopicity parameters describing the influence of chemical composition on the CCN activity of aerosol particles varied in the range of kappa approximate to 0.1-0.4 (0.16+/-0.06 arithmetic mean and standard deviation). The overall median value of kappa approximate to 0.15 was by a factor of two lower than the values typically observed for continental aerosols in other regions of the world. Aitken mode particles were less hygroscopic than accumulation mode particles (kappa approximate to 0.1 at D approximate to 50 nm; kappa approximate to 0.2 at D approximate to 200 nm), which is in agreement with earlier hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (H-TDMA) studies. The CCN measurement results are consistent with aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS) data, showing that the organic mass fraction (f(org)) was on average as high as similar to 90% in the Aitken mode (D <= 100 nm) and decreased with increasing particle diameter in the accumulation mode (similar to 80% at D approximate to 200 nm). The kappa values exhibited a negative linear correlation with f(org) (R(2)=0.81), and extrapolation yielded the following effective hygroscopicity parameters for organic and inorganic particle components: kappa(org)approximate to 0.1 which can be regarded as the effective hygroscopicity of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and kappa(inorg)approximate to 0.6 which is characteristic for ammonium sulfate and related salts. Both the size dependence and the temporal variability of effective particle hygroscopicity could be parameterized as a function of AMS-based organic and inorganic mass fractions (kappa(p)=kappa(org) x f(org)+kappa(inorg) x f(inorg)). The CCN number concentrations predicted with kappa(p) were in fair agreement with the measurement results (similar to 20% average deviation). The median CCN number concentrations at S=0.1-0.82% ranged from N(CCN,0.10)approximate to 35 cm(-3) to N(CCN,0.82)approximate to 160 cm(-3), the median concentration of aerosol particles larger than 30 nm was N(CN,30)approximate to 200 cm(-3), and the corresponding integral CCN efficiencies were in the range of N(CCN,0.10/NCN,30)approximate to 0.1 to N(CCN,0.82/NCN,30)approximate to 0.8. Although the number concentrations and hygroscopicity parameters were much lower in pristine rainforest air, the integral CCN efficiencies observed were similar to those in highly polluted megacity air. Moreover, model calculations of N(CCN,S) assuming an approximate global average value of kappa approximate to 0.3 for continental aerosols led to systematic overpredictions, but the average deviations exceeded similar to 50% only at low water vapor supersaturation (0.1%) and low particle number concentrations (<= 100 cm(-3)). Model calculations assuming aconstant aerosol size distribution led to higher average deviations at all investigated levels of supersaturation: similar to 60% for the campaign average distribution and similar to 1600% for a generic remote continental size distribution. These findings confirm earlier studies suggesting that aerosol particle number and size are the major predictors for the variability of the CCN concentration in continental boundary layer air, followed by particle composition and hygroscopicity as relatively minor modulators. Depending on the required and applicable level of detail, the information and parameterizations presented in this paper should enable efficient description of the CCN properties of pristine tropical rainforest aerosols of Amazonia in detailed process models as well as in large-scale atmospheric and climate models.

Robust relations between CCN and the vertical evolution of cloud drop size distribution in deep convective clouds

In-situ measurements in convective clouds (up to the freezing level) over the Amazon basin show that smoke from deforestation fires prevents clouds from precipitating until they acquire a vertical development of at least 4 km, compared to only 1-2 km in clean clouds. The average cloud depth required for the onset of warm rain increased by similar to 350 m for each additional 100 cloud condensation nuclei per cm(3) at a super-saturation of 0.5% (CCN0.5%). In polluted clouds, the diameter of modal liquid water content grows much slower with cloud depth (at least by a factor of similar to 2), due to the large number of droplets that compete for available water and to the suppressed coalescence processes. Contrary to what other studies have suggested, we did not observe this effect to reach saturation at 3000 or more accumulation mode particles per cm(3). The CCN0.5% concentration was found to be a very good predictor for the cloud depth required for the onset of warm precipitation and other microphysical factors, leaving only a secondary role for the updraft velocities in determining the cloud drop size distributions. The effective radius of the cloud droplets (r(e)) was found to be a quite robust parameter for a given environment and cloud depth, showing only a small effect of partial droplet evaporation from the cloud's mixing with its drier environment. This supports one of the basic assumptions of satellite analysis of cloud microphysical processes: the ability to look at different cloud top heights in the same region and regard their r(e) as if they had been measured inside one well developed cloud. The dependence of r(e) on the adiabatic fraction decreased higher in the clouds, especially for cleaner conditions, and disappeared at r(e)>=similar to 10 mu m. We propose that droplet coalescence, which is at its peak when warm rain is formed in the cloud at r(e)=similar to 10 mu m, continues to be significant during the cloud's mixing with the entrained air, cancelling out the decrease in r(e) due to evaporation.

Deformations of the Tracy-Widom distribution

In random matrix theory, the Tracy-Widom (TW) distribution describes the behavior of the largest eigenvalue. We consider here two models in which TW undergoes transformations. In the first one disorder is introduced in the Gaussian ensembles by superimposing an external source of randomness. A competition between TW and a normal (Gaussian) distribution results, depending on the spreading of the disorder. The second model consists of removing at random a fraction of (correlated) eigenvalues of a random matrix. The usual formalism of Fredholm determinants extends naturally. A continuous transition from TW to the Weilbull distribution, characteristic of extreme values of an uncorrelated sequence, is obtained.