Experimental thermal hydraulic studies on the enhancement of safety of LWRs

The safe use of nuclear power plants (NPPs) requires a deep understanding of the functioning of physical processes and systems involved. Studies on thermal hydraulics have been carried out in various separate effects and integral test facilities at Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) either to ensure the functioning of safety systems of light water reactors (LWR) or to produce validation data for the computer codes used in safety analyses of NPPs. Several examples of safety studies on thermal hydraulics of the nuclear power plants are discussed. Studies are related to the physical phenomena existing in different processes in NPPs, such as rewetting of the fuel rods, emergency core cooling (ECC), natural circulation, small break loss-of-coolant accidents (SBLOCA), non-condensable gas release and transport, and passive safety systems. Studies on both VVER and advanced light water reactor (ALWR) systems are included. The set of cases include separate effects tests for understanding and modeling a single physical phenomenon, separate effects tests to study the behavior of a NPP component or a single system, and integral tests to study the behavior of the whole system. In the studies following steps can be found, not necessarily in the same study. Experimental studies as such have provided solutions to existing design problems. Experimental data have been created to validate a single model in a computer code. Validated models are used in various transient analyses of scaled facilities or NPPs. Integral test data are used to validate the computer codes as whole, to see how the implemented models work together in a code. In the final stage test results from the facilities are transferred to the NPP scale using computer codes. Some of the experiments have confirmed the expected behavior of the system or procedure to be studied; in some experiments there have been certain unexpected phenomena that have caused changes to the original design to avoid the recognized problems. This is the main motivation for experimental studies on thermal hydraulics of the NPP safety systems. Naturally the behavior of the new system designs have to be checked with experiments, but also the existing designs, if they are applied in the conditions that differ from what they were originally designed for. New procedures for existing reactors and new safety related systems have been developed for new nuclear power plant concepts. New experiments have been continuously needed.

Modeling of Pressurizer Using APROS and TRACE Thermal Hydraulic Codes

Diplomityön tavoitteena on paineistimen yksityiskohtainen mallintaminen APROS- ja TRACE- termohydrauliikkaohjelmistoja käyttäen. Rakennetut paineistinmallit testattiin vertaamalla laskentatuloksia paineistimen täyttymistä, tyhjentymistä ja ruiskutusta käsittelevistä erilliskokeista saatuun mittausdataan. Tutkimuksen päätavoitteena on APROSin paineistinmallin validoiminen käyttäen vertailuaineistona PACTEL ATWS-koesarjan sopivia paineistinkokeita sekä MIT Pressurizer- ja Neptunus- erilliskokeita. Lisäksi rakennettiin malli Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen paineistimesta, jota käytettiin turbiinitrippitransientin simulointiin tarkoituksena selvittää mahdolliset voimalaitoksen ja koelaitteistojen mittakaavaerosta johtuvat vaikutukset APROSin paineistinlaskentaan. Kokeiden simuloinnissa testattiin erilaisia noodituksia ja mallinnusvaihtoehtoja, kuten entalpian ensimmäisen ja toisen kertaluvun diskretisointia, ja APROSin sekä TRACEn antamia tuloksia vertailtiin kattavasti toisiinsa. APROSin paineistinmallin lämmönsiirtokorrelaatioissa havaittiin merkittävä puute ja laskentatuloksiin saatiin huomattava parannus ottamalla käyttöön uusi seinämälauhtumismalli. Työssä tehdyt TRACE-simulaatiot ovat osa United States Nuclear Regulatory Commissionin kansainvälistä CAMP-koodinkehitys-ja validointiohjelmaa.

Graphitized carbon black in quartz tubes for the sampling of indoor air nicotine and analysis by microwave thermal desorption-capillary gas chromatography

Nicotine in a smoky indoor air environment can be determined using graphitized carbon black as a solid sorbent in quartz tubes. The temperature stability, high purity, and heat absorption characteristics of the sorbent, as well as the permeability of the quartz tubes to microwaves, enable the thermal desorption by means of microwaves after active sampling. Permeation and dynamic dilution procedures for the generation of nicotine in the vapor phase at low and high concentrations are used to evaluate the performances of the sampler. Tube preparation is described and the microwave desorption temperature is measured. Breakthrough volume is determined to allow sampling at 0.1-1 L/min for definite periods of time. The procedure is tested for the determination of gas and paticulate phase nicotine in sidestream smoke produced in an experimental chamber.

Modeling of non-isothermalvapor membrane separation with thermodynamic models and generalized mass transfer equations

A rigorous unit operation model is developed for vapor membrane separation. The new model is able to describe temperature, pressure, and concentration dependent permeation as wellreal fluid effects in vapor and gas separation with hydrocarbon selective rubbery polymeric membranes. The permeation through the membrane is described by a separate treatment of sorption and diffusion within the membrane. The chemical engineering thermodynamics is used to describe the equilibrium sorption of vapors and gases in rubbery membranes with equation of state models for polymeric systems. Also a new modification of the UNIFAC model is proposed for this purpose. Various thermodynamic models are extensively compared in order to verify the models' ability to predict and correlate experimental vapor-liquid equilibrium data. The penetrant transport through the selective layer of the membrane is described with the generalized Maxwell-Stefan equations, which are able to account for thebulk flux contribution as well as the diffusive coupling effect. A method is described to compute and correlate binary penetrant¿membrane diffusion coefficients from the experimental permeability coefficients at different temperatures and pressures. A fluid flow model for spiral-wound modules is derived from the conservation equation of mass, momentum, and energy. The conservation equations are presented in a discretized form by using the control volume approach. A combination of the permeation model and the fluid flow model yields the desired rigorous model for vapor membrane separation. The model is implemented into an inhouse process simulator and so vapor membrane separation may be evaluated as an integralpart of a process flowsheet.

The internal wave field in Sau reservoir : Observation and modeling of a third vertical mode

Water withdrawal from Mediterranean reservoirs in summer is usually very high. Because of this, stratification is often continuous and far from the typical two-layered structure, favoring the excitation of higher vertical modes. The analysis of wind, temperature, and current data from Sau reservoir (Spain) shows that the third vertical mode of the internal seiche (baroclinic mode) dominated the internal wave field at the beginning of September 2003. We used a continuous stratification two-dimensional model to calculate the period and velocity distribution of the various modes of the internal seiche, and we calculated that the period of the third vertical mode is ;24 h, which coincides with the period of the dominating winds. As a result of the resonance between the third mode and the wind, the other oscillation modes were not excited during this period

Modeling reaction kinetics and mass transfer in ozonation in water solutions

This dissertation is based on four articles dealing with modeling of ozonation. The literature part of this considers some models for hydrodynamics in bubble column simulation. A literature review of methods for obtaining mass transfer coefficients is presented. The methods presented to obtain mass transfer are general models and can be applied to any gas-liquid system. Ozonation reaction models and methods for obtaining stoichiometric coefficients and reaction rate coefficients for ozonation reactions are discussed in the final section of the literature part. In the first article, ozone gas-liquid mass transfer into water in a bubble column was investigated for different pH values. A more general method for estimation of mass transfer and Henry’s coefficient was developed from the Beltrán method. The ozone volumetric mass transfer coefficient and the Henry’s coefficient were determined simultaneously by parameter estimation using a nonlinear optimization method. A minor dependence of the Henry’s law constant on pH was detected at the pH range 4 - 9. In the second article, a new method using the axial dispersion model for estimation of ozone self-decomposition kinetics in a semi-batch bubble column reactor was developed. The reaction rate coefficients for literature equations of ozone decomposition and the gas phase dispersion coefficient were estimated and compared with the literature data. The reaction order in the pH range 7-10 with respect to ozone 1.12 and 0.51 the hydroxyl ion were obtained, which is in good agreement with literature. The model parameters were determined by parameter estimation using a nonlinear optimization method. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using object function method to obtain information about the reliability and identifiability of the estimated parameters. In the third article, the reaction rate coefficients and the stoichiometric coefficients in the reaction of ozone with the model component p-nitrophenol were estimated at low pH of water using nonlinear optimization. A novel method for estimation of multireaction model parameters in ozonation was developed. In this method the concentration of unknown intermediate compounds is presented as a residual COD (chemical oxygen demand) calculated from the measured COD and the theoretical COD for the known species. The decomposition rate of p-nitrophenol on the pathway producing hydroquinone was found to be about two times faster than the p-nitrophenol decomposition rate on the pathway producing 4- nitrocatechol. In the fourth article, the reaction kinetics of p-nitrophenol ozonation was studied in a bubble column at pH 2. Using the new reaction kinetic model presented in the previous article, the reaction kinetic parameters, rate coefficients, and stoichiometric coefficients as well as the mass transfer coefficient were estimated with nonlinear estimation. The decomposition rate of pnitrophenol was found to be equal both on the pathway producing hydroquinone and on the path way producing 4-nitrocathecol. Comparison of the rate coefficients with the case at initial pH 5 indicates that the p-nitrophenol degradation producing 4- nitrocathecol is more selective towards molecular ozone than the reaction producing hydroquinone. The identifiability and reliability of the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Marcov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. @All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the author.

Methods to test gas tightness of packages

One of the primary goals for food packages is to protect food against harmful environment, especially oxygen and moisture. The gas transmission rate is the total gas transport through the package, both by permeation through the package material and by leakage through pinholes and cracks. The shelf life of a product can be extended, if the food is stored in a gas tight package. Thus there is a need to test gas tightness of packages. There are several tightness testing methods, and they can be broadly divided into destructive and nondestructive methods. One of the most sensitive methods to detect leaks is by using a non destructive tracer gas technique. Carbon dioxide, helium and hydrogen are the most commonly used tracer gases. Hydrogen is the lightest and the smallest of all gases, which allows it to escape rapidly from the leak areas. The low background concentration of H2 in air (0.5 ppm) enables sensitive leak detection. With a hydrogen leak detector it is also possible to locate leaks. That is not possible with many other tightness testing methods. The experimental work has been focused on investigating the factors which affect the measurement results with the H2leak detector. Also reasons for false results were searched to avoid them in upcoming measurements. From the results of these experiments, the appropriate measurement practice was created in order to have correct and repeatable results. The most important thing for good measurement results is to keep the probe of the detector tightly against the leak. Because of its high diffusion rate, the HZ concentration decreases quickly if holding the probe further away from the leak area and thus the measured H2 leaks would be incorrect and small leaks could be undetected. In the experimental part hydrogen, oxygen and water vapour transmissions through laser beam reference holes (diameters 1 100 μm) were also measured and compared. With the H2 leak detector it was possible to detect even a leakage through 1 μm (diameter) within a few seconds. Water vapour did not penetrate even the largest reference hole (100 μm), even at tropical conditions (38 °C, 90 % RH), whereas some O2 transmission occurred through the reference holes larger than 5 μm. Thus water vapour transmission does not have a significant effect on food deterioration, if the diameter of the leak is less than 100 μm, but small leaks (5 100 μm) are more harmful for the food products, which are sensitive to oxidation.

Kinetic modeling of the biosorption of Cd2+ ions from aqueous solutions onto Eichhornia crassipes roots using potentiometry: low-cost alternative to conventional methods

This work presents the use of potentiometric measurements for kinetic studies of biosorption of Cd2+ ions from aqueous solutions on Eichhornia crassipes roots. The open circuit potential of the Cd/Cd2+ electrode of the first kind was measured during the bioadsorption process. The amount of Cd2+ ions accumulated was determined in real time. The data were fit to different models, with the pseudo-second-order model proving to be the best in describing the data. The advantages and limitations of the methodology proposed relative to the traditional method are discussed.

Kinetic modeling of mechanisms of industrially important organic reactions in gas and liquid phase

This dissertation is based on 5 articles which deal with reaction mechanisms of the following selected industrially important organic reactions: 1. dehydrocyclization of n-butylbenzene to produce naphthalene 2. dehydrocyclization of 1-(p-tolyl)-2-methylbutane (MB) to produce 2,6-dimethylnaphthalene 3. esterification of neopentyl glycol (NPG) with different carboxylic acids to produce monoesters 4. skeletal isomerization of 1-pentene to produce 2-methyl-1-butene and 2-methyl-2-butene The results of initial- and integral-rate experiments of n-butylbenzene dehydrocyclization over selfmade chromia/alumina catalyst were applied when investigating reaction 2. Reaction 2 was performed using commercial chromia/alumina of different acidity, platina on silica and vanadium/calcium/alumina as catalysts. On all catalysts used for the dehydrocyclization, major reactions were fragmentation of MB and 1-(p-tolyl)-2-methylbutenes (MBes), dehydrogenation of MB, double bond transfer, hydrogenation and 1,6-cyclization of MBes. Minor reactions were 1,5-cyclization of MBes and methyl group fragmentation of 1,6- cyclization products. Esterification reactions of NPG were performed using three different carboxylic acids: propionic, isobutyric and 2-ethylhexanoic acid. Commercial heterogeneous gellular (Dowex 50WX2), macroreticular (Amberlyst 15) type resins and homogeneous para-toluene sulfonic acid were used as catalysts. At first NPG reacted with carboxylic acids to form corresponding monoester and water. Then monoester esterified with carboxylic acid to form corresponding diester. In disproportionation reaction two monoester molecules formed NPG and corresponding diester. All these three reactions can attain equilibrium. Concerning esterification, water was removed from the reactor in order to prevent backward reaction. Skeletal isomerization experiments of 1-pentene were performed over HZSM-22 catalyst. Isomerization reactions of three different kind were detected: double bond, cis-trans and skeletal isomerization. Minor side reaction were dimerization and fragmentation. Monomolecular and bimolecular reaction mechanisms for skeletal isomerization explained experimental results almost equally well. Pseudohomogeneous kinetic parameters of reactions 1 and 2 were estimated by usual least squares fitting. Concerning reactions 3 and 4 kinetic parameters were estimated by the leastsquares method, but also the possible cross-correlation and identifiability of parameters were determined using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Finally using MCMC method, the estimation of model parameters and predictions were performed according to the Bayesian paradigm. According to the fitting results suggested reaction mechanisms explained experimental results rather well. When the possible cross-correlation and identifiability of parameters (Reactions 3 and 4) were determined using MCMC method, the parameters identified well, and no pathological cross-correlation could be seen between any parameter pair.

Reactive dissolution of sedimentary rocks in flue gas desulfurization : modeling and experimental investigation

Svavel förekommer i kol och olja och oxideras vid förbränning till svaveldioxid (SO2). Årligen utsläpps stora mängder svaveldioxid som åstadkommer sura regn, minskning av stratosfäriskt ozon och sjukdomar. Av dessa orsaker är det nödvändigt att minska utsläppen av svaveldioxid. Den teknologi som rör planering av reaktorer och processer för rökgasavsvavling (FGD) har utvecklats kraftigt och idag använder man olika typer av lösningar. De vanligaste alternativen för FGD är våtskrubber- och semitorra skrubbersystem (Spray Dry Scrubbers, SDS) och injektionsprocesser för absorbenter. SDS-processer har studerats bland annat av Ahlbeck [4] och Klingspor [5] och injektionsprocesser av Alvfors [6]. Kalksten, som i huvusak består av kalciumkarbonat, används i rökgasavsvavling på grund av sin förmåga att binda svavel i form av sulfatsalter. Den vanligaste rökgasavsvavlingsmetoden är våtskrubbning, där det sedimentära stenmaterialets upplösningshastighet är en av de faktorer som påverkar resultatet mest. Utvärdering av kalkstensreaktivitet är därför speciellt viktig vid planering och drift av anläggningar för rökgasavsvavling. Målsättningen med detta arbete var att modellera upplösningen av olika typers kalksten för att få en kvantitativ utvärdering av kvaliteten på de analyserade proverna. Därtill testades även karbonatbiprodukter från stålindustrin för att utvärdera möjligheter att använda andra råmaterial. Det transienta förloppet har analyserats, varvid upplösningshastigheten modellerades bl.a. i avseende på tid och pH. Under arbetets gång har antalet empiriska korrelationer minskats till fördel för fysikaliska modeller av diffusiva och konvektiva masstransportfenomen. En målsättning var att skapa en effektiv och snabb metod för att testa olika absorbenter för rökgasavsvavling under transienta förlopp. I arbetet användes PSD-analys, gjordes pH-mätningar och andra utvärderingar av de fysikaliska parametrar som ingår i beräkningarna. On-line mätningar för de icke-stationära variablerna tid och pH ger möjlighet att eliminera osäkerheter. Vissa modeller kan vara komplicerade. En modell för upplösningshastigheten med mer detaljerad utvärdering av parametrar och färre approximationer är därför nödvändig då man vill utvärdera reaktionshastigheten för fasta partiklar i sur miljö. Arbetet utfördes under fyra år och fem peer review-artiklar ingår i avhandlingen.

Fracture modes and acoustic emission characteristics of hydrogen-assisted cracking in high-strength low-alloy steel weldment

The aim of the present paper is to study the relationship between the fracture modes in hydrogen-assisted cracking (HAC) in microalloied steel and the emission of acoustic signals during the fracturing process. For this reason, a flux-cored arc weld (FCAW) was used in a high-strength low-alloy steel. The consumable used were the commercially available AWS E120T5-K4 and had a diameter of 1.6 mm. Two different shielding gases were used (CO2 and CO2+5% H2) to obtain complete phenomenon characterization. The implant test was applied with three levels of restriction stresses. An acoustic emission measurement system (AEMS) was coupled to the implant test apparatus. The output signal from the acoustic emission sensor was passed through an electronic amplifier and processed by a root mean square (RMS) voltage converter. Fracture surfaces were examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and image analysis. Fracture modes were related with the intensity, the energy and the number of the peaks of the acoustic emission signal. The shielding gas CO2+5% H2 proved to be very useful in the experiments. Basically, three different fracture modes were identified in terms of fracture appearance: microvoid coalescence (MVC), intergranular (IG) and quasi-cleavage (QC). The results show that each mode of fracture presents a characteristic acoustic signal.

Modeling Front End Electronics for a Gas Electron Multiplier Detector

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in The European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) will have a Long Shutdown sometime during 2017 or 2018. During this time there will be maintenance and a possibility to install new detectors. After the shutdown the LHC will have a higher luminosity. A promising new type of detector for this high luminosity phase is a Triple-GEM detector. During the shutdown these detectors will be installed at the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment. The Triple-GEM detectors are now being developed at CERN and alongside also a readout ASIC chip for the detector. In this thesis a simulation model was developed for the ASICs analog front end. The model will help to carry out more extensive simulations and also simulate the whole chip before the whole design is finished. The proper functioning of the model was tested with simulations, which are also presented in the thesis.

Electrical parameters and water permeability properties of monolayers formed by T84 cells cultured on permeable supports

T84 is an established cell line expressing an enterocyte phenotype whose permeability properties have been widely explored. Osmotic permeability (P OSM), hydraulic permeability (P HYDR) and transport-associated net water fluxes (J W-transp), as well as short-circuit current (I SC), transepithelial resistance (R T), and potential difference (deltaV T) were measured in T84 monolayers with the following results: P OSM 1.3 ± 0.1 cm.s-1 x 10-3; P HYDR 0.27 ± 0.02 cm.s-1; R T 2426 ± 109 omega.cm², and deltaV T 1.31 ± 0.38 mV. The effect of 50 µM 5,6-dichloro-1-ethyl-1,3-dihydro-2H-benzimidazol-2-one (DCEBIO), a "net Cl- secretory agent", on T84 cells was also studied. We confirm the reported important increase in I SC induced by DCEBIO which was associated here with a modest secretory deltaJ W-transp. The present results were compared with those reported using the same experimental approach applied to established cell lines originating from intestinal and renal epithelial cells (Caco-2, LLC-PK1 and RCCD-1). No clear association between P HYDR and R T could be demonstrated and high P HYDR values were observed in an electrically tight epithelium, supporting the view that a "water leaky" barrier is not necessarily an "electrically leaky" one. Furthermore, the modest secretory deltaJ W-transp was not consistent with previous results obtained with RCCD-1 cells stimulated with vasopressin (absorptive fluxes) or with T84 cells secreting water under the action of Escherichia coli heat stable enterotoxin. We conclude that, while the presence of aquaporins is necessary to dissipate an external osmotic gradient, coupling between water and ion transport cannot be explained by a simple and common underlying mechanism.

Tumor necrosis factor alpha increases epithelial barrier permeability by disrupting tight junctions in Caco-2 cells

The objectives of this study were to determine the effect of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) on intestinal epithelial cell permeability and the expression of tight junction proteins. Caco-2 cells were plated onto Transwell® microporous filters and treated with TNF-α (10 or 100 ng/mL) for 0, 4, 8, 16, or 24 h. The transepithelial electrical resistance and the mucosal-to-serosal flux rates of the established paracellular marker Lucifer yellow were measured in filter-grown monolayers of Caco-2 intestinal cells. The localization and expression of the tight junction protein occludin were detected by immunofluorescence and Western blot analysis, respectively. SYBR-Green-based real-time PCR was used to measure the expression of occludin mRNA. TNF-α treatment produced concentration- and time-dependent decreases in Caco-2 transepithelial resistance and increases in transepithelial permeability to the paracellular marker Lucifer yellow. Western blot results indicated that TNF-α decreased the expression of phosphorylated occludin in detergent-insoluble fractions but did not affect the expression of non-phosphorylated occludin protein. Real-time RT-PCR data showed that TNF-α did not affect the expression of occludin mRNA. Taken together, our data demonstrate that TNF-α increases Caco-2 monolayer permeability, decreases occludin protein expression and disturbs intercellular junctions.

Modeling Energy Futures Returns With Markov Regime Switching Model

Financial time series have a tendency of abruptly changing their behavior and maintain this behavior for several consecutive periods, and commodity futures returns are not an exception. This quality proposes that nonlinear models, as opposed to linear models, can more accurately describe returns and volatility. Markov regime switching models are able to match this behavior and have become a popular way to model financial time series. This study uses Markov regime switching model to describe the behavior of energy futures returns on a commodity level, because studies show that commodity futures are a heterogeneous asset class. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, determine how many regimes characterize individual energy commodities’ returns in different return frequencies. Second, study the characteristics of these regimes. We extent the previous studies on the subject in two ways: We allow for the possibility that the number of regimes may exceed two, as well as conduct the research on individual commodities rather than on commodity indices or subgroups of these indices. We use daily, weekly and monthly time series of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, natural gas, heating oil and gasoil futures returns over 1994–2014, where available, to carry out the study. We apply the likelihood ratio test to determine the sufficient number of regimes for each commodity and data frequency. Then the time series are modeled with Markov regime switching model to obtain the return distribution characteristics of each regime, as well as the transition probabilities of moving between regimes. The results for the number of regimes suggest that daily energy futures return series consist of three to six regimes, whereas weekly and monthly returns for all energy commodities display only two regimes. When the number of regimes exceeds two, there is a tendency for the time series of energy commodities to form groups of regimes. These groups are usually quite persistent as a whole because probability of a regime switch inside the group is high. However, individual regimes in these groups are not persistent and the process oscillates between these regimes frequently. Regimes that are not part of any group are generally persistent, but show low ergodic probability, i.e. rarely prevail in the market. This study also suggests that energy futures return series characterized with two regimes do not necessarily display persistent bull and bear regimes. In fact, for the majority of time series, bearish regime is considerably less persistent. Rahoituksen aikasarjoilla on taipumus arvaamattomasti muuttaa käyttäytymistään ja jatkaa tätä uutta käyttäytymistä useiden periodien ajan, eivätkä hyödykefutuurien tuotot tee tähän poikkeusta. Tämän ominaisuuden johdosta lineaaristen mallien sijasta epälineaariset mallit pystyvät tarkemmin kuvailemaan esimerkiksi tuottojen jakauman parametreja. Markov regiiminvaihtomallit pystyvät vangitsemaan tämän ominaisuuden ja siksi niistä on tullut suosittuja rahoituksen aikasarjojen mallintamisessa. Tämä tutkimus käyttää Markov regiiminvaihtomallia kuvaamaan yksittäisten energiafutuurien tuottojen käyttäytymistä, sillä tutkimukset osoittavat hyödykefutuurien olevan hyvin heterogeeninen omaisuusluokka. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus on selvittää, kuinka monta regiimiä tarvitaan kuvaamaan energiafutuurien tuottoja eri tuottofrekvensseillä ja mitkä ovat näiden regiimien ominaisuudet. Aiempaa tutkimusta aiheesta laajennetaan määrittämällä regiimien lukumäärä tilastotieteellisen testauksen menetelmin sekä tutkimalla energiafutuureja yksittäin; ei indeksi- tai alaindeksitasolla. Tutkimuksessa käytetään päivä-, viikko- ja kuukausiaikasarjoja Brent-raakaöljyn, WTI-raakaöljyn, maakaasun, lämmitysöljyn ja polttoöljyn tuotoista aikaväliltä 1994–2014, siltä osin kuin aineistoa on saatavilla. Likelihood ratio -testin avulla estimoidaan kaikille aikasarjoille regiimien määrä,jonka jälkeen Markov regiiminvaihtomallia hyödyntäen määritetään yksittäisten regiimientuottojakaumien ominaisuudet sekä regiimien välinen transitiomatriisi. Tulokset regiimien lukumäärän osalta osoittavat, että energiafutuurien päiväkohtaisten tuottojen aikasarjoissa regiimien lukumäärä vaihtelee kolmen ja kuuden välillä. Viikko- ja kuukausituottojen kohdalla kaikkien energiafutuurien prosesseissa regiimien lukumäärä on kaksi. Kun regiimejä on enemmän kuin kaksi, on prosessilla taipumus muodostaa regiimeistä koostuvia ryhmiä. Prosessi pysyy ryhmän sisällä yleensä pitkään, koska todennäköisyys siirtyä ryhmään kuuluvien regiimien välillä on suuri. Yksittäiset regiimit ryhmän sisällä eivät kuitenkaan ole kovin pysyviä. Näin ollen prosessi vaihtelee ryhmän sisäisten regiimien välillä tiuhaan. Regiimit, jotka eivät kuulu ryhmään, ovat yleensä pysyviä, mutta prosessi ajautuu niihin vain harvoin, sillä todennäköisyys siirtyä muista regiimeistä niihin on pieni. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat myös, että prosesseissa, joita ohjaa kaksi regiimiä, nämä regiimit eivät välttämättä ole pysyvät bull- ja bear-markkinatilanteet. Tulokset osoittavat sen sijaan, että bear-markkinatilanne on energiafutuureissa selvästi vähemmän pysyvä.