Temperature and Resource Availability May Interactively Affect Over-Wintering Success of Juvenile Fish in a Changing Climate

The predicted global warming may affect freshwater systems at several organizational levels, from organism to ecosystem. Specifically, in temperate regions, the projected increase of winter temperatures may have important effects on the over-winter biology of a range of organisms and especially for fish and other ectothermic animals. However, temperature effects on organisms may be directed strongly by resource availability. Here, we investigated whether over-winter loss of biomass and lipid content of juvenile roach (Rutilus rutilus) was affected by the physiologically relatively small (2-5°C) changes of winter temperatures predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under both natural and experimental conditions. This was investigated in combination with the effects of food availability. Finally, we explored the potential for a correlation between lake temperature and resource levels for planktivorous fish, i.e., zooplankton biomass, during five consecutive winters in a south Swedish lake. We show that small increases in temperature (+2°C) affected fish biomass loss in both presence and absence of food, but negatively and positively respectively. Temperature alone explained only a minor part of the variation when food availability was not taken into account. In contrast to other studies, lipid analyses of experimental fish suggest that critical somatic condition rather than critical lipid content determined starvation induced mortality. Our results illustrate the importance of considering not only changes in temperature when predicting organism response to climate change but also food-web interactions, such as resource availability and predation. However, as exemplified by our finding that zooplankton over-winter biomass in the lake was not related to over-winter temperature, this may not be a straightforward task.

Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change

Semi-arid ecosystems play an important role in regulating global climate with the fate of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene depending upon interactions among temperature, precipitation, and CO2. However, in cool-arid environments, precipitation is not the only limitation to forest productivity. Interactions between changes in precipitation and air temperature may enhance soil moisture stress while simultaneously extending growing season length, with unclear consequences for net carbon uptake. This study evaluates recent trends in productivity and phenology of Inner Asian forests (in Mongolia and Northern China) using satellite remote sensing, dendrochronology, and dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations to quantify the sensitivity of forest dynamics to decadal climate variability and trends. Trends in photosynthetically active radiation fraction (FPAR) between 1982 and 2010 show a greening of about 7% of the region in spring (March, April, May), and 3% of the area ‘browning’ during summertime (June, July, August). These satellite observations of FPAR are corroborated by trends in NPP simulated by the LPJ DGVM. Spring greening trends in FPAR are mainly explained by long-term trends in precipitation whereas summer browning trends are correlated with decreasing precipitation. Tree ring data from 25 sites confirm annual growth increments are mainly limited by summer precipitation (June, July, August) in Mongolia, and spring precipitation in northern China (March, April, May), with relatively weak prior-year lag effects. An ensemble of climate projections from the IPCC CMIP3 models indicates that warming temperatures (spring, summer) are expected to be associated with higher summer precipitation, which combined with CO2 causes large increases in NPP and possibly even greater forest cover in the Mongolian steppe. In the absence of a strong direct CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth (e.g., due to nutrient limitation), water stress or decreased carbon gain from higher autotrophic respiration results in decreased productivity and loss of forest cover. The fate of these semi-arid ecosystems thus appears to hinge upon the magnitude and subtleties of CO2 fertilization effects, for which experimental observations in arid systems are needed to test and refine vegetation models.

Solar forcing of North Atlantic surface temperature and salinity over the past millennium

There were several centennial-scale fluctuations in the climate and oceanography of the North Atlantic region over the past 1,000 years, including a period of relative cooling from about AD 1450 to 1850 known as the Little Ice Age1. These variations may be linked to changes in solar irradiance, amplified through feedbacks including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation2. Changes in the return limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are reflected in water properties at the base of the mixed layer south of Iceland. Here we reconstruct thermocline temperature and salinity in this region from AD 818 to 1780 using paired δ18O and Mg/Ca ratio measurements of foraminifer shells from a subdecadally resolved marine sediment core. The reconstructed centennial-scale variations in hydrography correlate with variability in total solar irradiance. We find a similar correlation in a simulation of climate over the past 1,000 years. We infer that the hydrographic changes probably reflect variability in the strength of the subpolar gyre associated with changes in atmospheric circulation. Specifically, in the simulation, low solar irradiance promotes the development of frequent and persistent atmospheric blocking events, in which a quasi-stationary high-pressure system in the eastern North Atlantic modifies the flow of the westerly winds. We conclude that this process could have contributed to the consecutive cold winters documented in Europe during the Little Ice Age.

Spatial gradients of temperature, accumulation and delta18O-ice in Greenland over a series of Dansgaard-Oeschger events

Air and water stable isotope measurements from four Greenland deep ice cores (GRIP, GISP2, NGRIP and NEEM) are investigated over a series of Dansgaard–Oeschger events (DO 8, 9 and 10), which are representative of glacial millennial scale variability. Combined with firn modeling, air isotope data allow us to quantify abrupt temperature increases for each drill site (1σ = 0.6 °C for NEEM, GRIP and GISP2, 1.5 °C for NGRIP). Our data show that the magnitude of stadial–interstadial temperature increase is up to 2 °C larger in central and North Greenland than in northwest Greenland: i.e., for DO 8, a magnitude of +8.8 °C is inferred, which is significantly smaller than the +11.1 °C inferred at GISP2. The same spatial pattern is seen for accumulation increases. This pattern is coherent with climate simulations in response to reduced sea-ice extent in the Nordic seas. The temporal water isotope (δ18O)–temperature relationship varies between 0.3 and 0.6 (±0.08) ‰ °C−1 and is systematically larger at NEEM, possibly due to limited changes in precipitation seasonality compared to GISP2, GRIP or NGRIP. The gas age−ice age difference of warming events represented in water and air isotopes can only be modeled when assuming a 26% (NGRIP) to 40% (GRIP) lower accumulation than that derived from a Dansgaard–Johnsen ice flow model.

Modelling the effects of land use and climate changes on hydrology in the Ursern Valley, Switzerland

While many studies have been conducted in mountainous catchments to examine the impact of climate change on hydrology, the interactions between climate changes and land use components have largely unknown impacts on hydrology in alpine regions. They need to be given special attention in order to devise possible strategies concerning general development in these regions. Thus, the main aim was to examine the impact of land use (i.e. bushland expansion) and climate changes (i.e. increase of temperature) on hydrology by model simulations. For this purpose, the physically based WaSiM-ETH model was applied to the catchment of Ursern Valley in the central Alps (191 km2) over the period of 1983−2005. Modelling results showed that the reduction of the mean monthly discharge during the summer period is due primarily to the retreat of snow discharge in time and secondarily to the reduction in the glacier surface area together with its retreat in time, rather than the increase in the evapotranspiration due to the expansion of the “green alder” on the expense of grassland. The significant decrease in summer discharge during July, August and September shows a change in the regime from b-glacio-nival to nivo-glacial. These changes are confirmed by the modeling results that attest to a temporal shift in snowmelt and glacier discharge towards earlier in the year: March, April and May for snowmelt and May and June for glacier discharge. It is expected that the yearly total discharge due to the land use changes will be reduced by 0.6% in the near future, whereas, it will be reduced by about 5% if climate change is also taken into account. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Satellite-Derived Variability in Chlorophyll, Wind Stress, Sea Surface Height, and Temperature in the Northern California Current System

Satellite-derived data provide the temporal means and seasonal and nonseasonal variability of four physical and biological parameters off Oregon and Washington ( 41 degrees - 48.5 degrees N). Eight years of data ( 1998 - 2005) are available for surface chlorophyll concentrations, sea surface temperature ( SST), and sea surface height, while six years of data ( 2000 - 2005) are available for surface wind stress. Strong cross-shelf and alongshore variability is apparent in the temporal mean and seasonal climatology of all four variables. Two latitudinal regions are identified and separated at 44 degrees - 46 degrees N, where the coastal ocean experiences a change in the direction of the mean alongshore wind stress, is influenced by topographic features, and has differing exposure to the Columbia River Plume. All these factors may play a part in defining the distinct regimes in the northern and southern regions. Nonseasonal signals account for similar to 60 - 75% of the dynamical variables. An empirical orthogonal function analysis shows stronger intra-annual variability for alongshore wind, coastal SST, and surface chlorophyll, with stronger interannual variability for surface height. Interannual variability can be caused by distant forcing from equatorial and basin-scale changes in circulation, or by more localized changes in regional winds, all of which can be found in the time series. Correlations are mostly as expected for upwelling systems on intra-annual timescales. Correlations of the interannual timescales are complicated by residual quasi-annual signals created by changes in the timing and strength of the seasonal cycles. Examination of the interannual time series, however, provides a convincing picture of the covariability of chlorophyll, surface temperature, and surface height, with some evidence of regional wind forcing.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

The effect of seasonal temperature variation on behaviour and metabolism in the freshwater mussel (Unio tumidus)

Temperature plays a critical role in determining the biology of ectotherms. Many animals have evolved mechanisms that allow them to compensate biological rates, i.e. adjust biological rates to overcome thermodynamic effects. For low energy-organisms, such as bivalves, the costs of thermal compensation may be greater than the benefits, and thus prohibitive. To examine this, two experiments were designed to explore thermal compensation in Unio tumidus. Experiment 1 examined seasonal changes in behaviour in U. tumidus throughout a year. Temperature had a clear effect on burrowing rate with no evidence of compensation. Valve closure duration and frequency were also strongly affected by seasonal temperature change, but there was slight evidence of partial compensation. Experiment 2 examined oxygen consumption during burrowing, immediately following valve opening and at rest in summer (24 °C), autumn (14 °C), winter (4 °C), and spring (14 °C) acclimatized U. tumidus. Again, there was little evidence of burrowing rate compensation, but some evidence of partial compensation of valve closure duration and frequency. None of the oxygen compensation rates showed any evidence of thermal compensation. Thus, in general, there was only very limited evidence of thermal compensation of behaviour and no evidence of thermal compensation of oxygen compensation rates. Based upon this evidence, we argue that there is no evolutionary pressure for these bivalves to compensate these biological rates. Any pressure may be to maintain or even lower oxygen consumption as their only defence against predation is to close their valves and wait. An increase in oxygen consumption will be detrimental in this regard so the cost of thermal compensation may outweigh the benefits.

Dependence of Eemian Greenland temperature reconstructions on the ice sheet topography

The influence of a reduced Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on Greenland's surface climate during the Eemian interglacial is studied using a set of simulations with different GrIS realizations performed with a comprehensive climate model. We find a distinct impact of changes in the GrIS topography on Greenland's surface air temperatures (SAT) even when correcting for changes in surface elevation, which influences SAT through the lapse rate effect. The resulting lapse-rate-corrected SAT anomalies are thermodynamically driven by changes in the local surface energy balance rather than dynamically caused through anomalous advection of warm/cold air masses. The large-scale circulation is indeed very stable among all sensitivity experiments and the Northern Hemisphere (NH) flow pattern does not depend on Greenland's topography in the Eemian. In contrast, Greenland's surface energy balance is clearly influenced by changes in the GrIS topography and this impact is seasonally diverse. In winter, the variable reacting strongest to changes in the topography is the sensible heat flux (SHF). The reason is its dependence on surface winds, which themselves are controlled to a large extent by the shape of the GrIS. Hence, regions where a receding GrIS causes higher surface wind velocities also experience anomalous warming through SHF. Vice-versa, regions that become flat and ice-free are characterized by low wind speeds, low SHF, and anomalous low winter temperatures. In summer, we find surface warming induced by a decrease in surface albedo in deglaciated areas and regions which experience surface melting. The Eemian temperature records derived from Greenland proxies, thus, likely include a temperature signal arising from changes in the GrIS topography. For the Eemian ice found in the NEEM core, our model suggests that up to 3.1 °C of the annual mean Eemian warming can be attributed to these topography-related processes and hence is not necessarily linked to large-scale climate variations.

Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

Metabolic adaptations and changes of the mammary immune response during beta-hydroxybutyrate administration

Elevation of ketone bodies occurs frequently after parturition during negative energy balance in high yielding dairy cows. Previous studies illustrated that hyperketonemia interferes with metabolism and it is assumed that it impairs the immune response. However, a causative effect of ketone bodies could not be shown in vivo before, because spontaneous hyperketonemia comes usually along with high NEFA and low glucose concentrations. The objective was to study effects of beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA) infusion and an additional intramammary lipopolysaccharide (LPS) challenge on metabolism and immune response in dairy cows. Thirteen dairy cows received intravenously either a BHBA infusion (group BHBA, n=5) to induce hyperketonemia (1.7 mmol/L), or an infusion with a 0.9 % saline solution (Control, n=8) for 56 h. Infusions started at 0900 on day 1 and continue up to 1700 two days later. Two udder quarters were challenged with 200 μg Escherichia coli-LPS 48 h after the start of infusion. Blood samples were taken one week and 2 h before the start of infusions as reference samples and hourly during the infusion. Liver and mammary gland biopsies were taken one week before the start of the infusion, 48 h after the start of the infusion, and mammary tissues was additionally taken 8 h after LPS challenge (56 h after the start of infusions). Rectal temperature (RT) and somatic cell count (SCC) was measured before and 48 h after the start of infusions and hourly during LPS challenge. Blood samples were analyzed for plasma glucose, BHBA, NEFA, triglyceride, urea, insulin, glucagon, and cortisol concentration. The mRNA abundance of factors related to potential adaptations of metabolism and immune system was measured in liver and mammary tissue biopsies. Differences between blood constituents, RT, SCC, and mRNA abundance before and 48 h after the start of infusions, and differences between mRNA abundance before and after LPS challenges were tested for significance by GLM of SAS procedure with treatment as fixed effect. Area under the curve was calculated for blood variables during 48 h BHBA infusion and during the LPS challenge, and additionally for RT and SCC during the LPS challenge. Most surprisingly, both plasma glucose and glucagon concentration decreased during the 48 h of BHBA infusion (P<0.05). During the 48 h of BHBA infusion, serum amyloid A mRNA abundance in mammary gland was increased (P<0.01), and haptoglobin (Hp) mRNA abundance tended to increase in cows treated with BHBA compared to control group (P= 0.07). RT, SCC, and candidate genes related to immune response in the liver were not affected by BHBA infusion. However, during LPS challenge the expected increase of both plasma glucose and glucagon concentration was much less pronounced in the animals treated with BHBA (P<0.05) and also SCC increased much less pronounced in the animals infused with BHBA (P<0.05) than in the controls. An increased BHBA infusion rate to maintain plasma BHBA constant could not fully compensate for the decreased plasma BHBA during the LPS challenge which indicates that BHBA is used as an energy source during the immune response. In addition, BHBA infused animals showed a more pronounced increase of mRNA abundance of IL-8, IL-10, and citrate synthase in the mammary tissue of LPS challenged quarters (P<0.05) than control animals. Results demonstrate that infusion of BHBA affects metabolism through decreased plasma glucose concentration which is likely related to a decreased release of glucagon during hyperketonemia and during additional inflammation. It also affects the systemic and mammary immune response which may reflect the increased susceptibility for mastitis during spontaneous hyperketonemia. The obviously reduced gluconeogenesis in response to BHBA infusion may be a mechanism to stimulated the use of BHBA as an energy source instead of glucose, and/or to save oxaloacetate for the citric acid cycle instead of gluconeogenesis and as a consequence to reduce ketogenesis.

Spring temperature variability and eutrophication history inferred from sedimentary pigments in the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie, north-eastern Poland, AD 1907–2008

Varved lake sediments are excellent natural archives providing quantitative insights into climatic and environmental changes at very high resolution and chronological accuracy. However, due to the multitude of responses within lake ecosystems it is often difficult to understand how climate variability interacts with other environmental pressures such as eutrophication, and to attribute observed changes to specific causes. This is particularly challenging during the past 100 years when multiple strong trends are superposed. Here we present a high-resolution multi-proxy record of sedimentary pigments and other biogeochemical data from the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie (Masurian Lake District, north-eastern Poland, 54°N–22°E, 120 m a.s.l.) spanning AD 1907 to 2008. Lake Żabińskie exhibits biogeochemical varves with highly organic late summer and winter layers separated by white layers of endogenous calcite precipitated in early summer. The aim of our study is to investigate whether climate-driven changes and anthropogenic changes can be separated in a multi-proxy sediment data set, and to explore which sediment proxies are potentially suitable for long quantitative climate reconstructions. We also test if convoluted analytical techniques (e.g. HPLC) can be substituted by rapid scanning techniques (visible reflectance spectroscopy VIS-RS; 380–730 nm). We used principal component analysis and cluster analysis to show that the recent eutrophication of Lake Żabińskie can be discriminated from climate-driven changes for the period AD 1907–2008. The eutrophication signal (PC1 = 46.4%; TOC, TN, TS, Phe-b, high TC/CD ratios total carotenoids/chlorophyll-a derivatives) is mainly expressed as increasing aquatic primary production, increasing hypolimnetic anoxia and a change in the algal community from green algae to blue-green algae. The proxies diagnostic for eutrophication show a smooth positive trend between 1907 and ca 1980 followed by a very rapid increase from ca. 1980 ± 2 onwards. We demonstrate that PC2 (24.4%, Chl-a-related pigments) is not affected by the eutrophication signal, but instead is sensitive to spring (MAM) temperature (r = 0.63, pcorr < 0.05, RMSEP = 0.56 °C; 5-yr filtered). Limnological monitoring data (2011–2013) support this finding. We also demonstrate that scanning visible reflectance spectroscopy (VIS-RS) data can be calibrated to HPLC-measured chloropigment data and be used to infer concentrations of sedimentary Chl-a derivatives {pheophytin a + pyropheophytin a}. This offers the possibility for very high-resolution (multi)millennial-long paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Alpine lacustrine varved record reveals summer temperature as main control of glacier fluctuations over the past 2250 years

Glacier fluctuations are a key indicator of changing climate. Their reconstruction beyond historical times unravels glacier variability and its forcing factors on long time scales, which can considerably improve our understanding of the climate–glacier relationship. Here, we present a 2250-year-long reconstruction of particle-mass accumulation rates recorded in the lacustrine sediments of Lake Trüebsee (Central Swiss Alps) that are directly related to glacier extent, thus reflecting a continuous record of fluctuations of the upstream-located Titlis Glacier. Mass accumulation rate values show strong centennial to multi-centennial fluctuations and reveal 12 well-pronounced periods of enhanced values corresponding to times of maximum extent of the neighboring Lower Grindelwald Glacier. This result supports previous studies of proglacial lake sediments that documented high mass accumulation rate values during glacier advances. The strong variability in the Lake Trüebsee mass accumulation rate record thus represents a highly sensitive paleoclimatic archive, which mirrors rapid and pronounced feedbacks of Titlis Glacier to climatic changes over the past 2250years. The comparison of our data with independent paleo-temperature reconstructions from tree rings suggests that variations in mean summer temperature were the primary driving factor of fluctuations of Titlis Glacier. Also, advances of Titlis Glacier occurred during the grand solar minima (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) of the last millennium. This relation of glacier extent with summer temperature reveals strong evidence that the mass balance of this Alpine glacier is primarily controlled by the intensity of glacier melting during summer.

A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy

Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice-core records provide a master record of past climatic changes throughout the Last Interglacial–Glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition and ordinal numbering of the sequence of Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the most recent glacial period. The GS and GI periods are the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard–Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. We present here a more detailed and extended GS/GI template for the whole of the Last Glacial period. It is based on a synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice-core records that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale. The boundaries of the GS and GI periods are defined based on a combination of stable-oxygen isotope ratios of the ice (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium ion concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading) measured in the ice. The data not only resolve the well-known sequence of Dansgaard–Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice-core records more than two decades ago, but also better resolve a number of short-lived climatic oscillations, some defined here for the first time. Using this revised scheme, we propose a consistent approach for discriminating and naming all the significant abrupt climatic events of the Last Glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice records. The final product constitutes an extended and better resolved Greenland stratotype sequence, against which other proxy records can be compared and correlated. It also provides a more secure basis for investigating the dynamics and fundamental causes of these climatic perturbations.

New insights into the reconstructed temperature in Portugal over the last 400 years

The consistency of an existing reconstructed annual (December–November) temperature series for the Lisbon region (Portugal) from 1600 onwards, based on a European-wide reconstruction, with (1) five local borehole temperature–depth profiles; (2) synthetic temperature– depth profiles, generated from both reconstructed temperatures and two regional paleoclimate simulations in Portugal; (3) instrumental data sources over the twentieth century; and (4) temperature indices from documentary sources during the late Maunder Minimum (1675–1715) is assessed. The low-frequency variability in the reconstructed temperature in Portugal is not entirely consistent with local borehole temperature–depth profiles and with the simulated response of temperature in two regional paleoclimate simulations driven by reconstructions of various climate forcings. Therefore, the existing reconstructed series is calibrated by adjusting its low-frequency variability to the simulations (first-stage adjustment). The annual reconstructed series is then calibrated in its location and scale parameters, using the instrumental series and a linear regression between them (second-stage adjustment). This calibrated series shows clear footprints of the Maunder and Dalton minima, commonly related to changes in solar activity and explosive volcanic eruptions, and a strong recent-past warming, commonly related to human-driven forcing. Lastly, it is also in overall agreement with annual temperature indices over the late Maunder Minimum in Portugal. The series resulting from this post-reconstruction adjustment can be of foremost relevance to improve the current understanding of the driving mechanisms of climate variability in Portugal.