Simple models for multi-attribute choice with many alternatives: When it does and does not pay to face tradeoffs with binary attributes

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Adaptive learning in models with lagged variables

In this work I study the stability of the dynamics generated by adaptivelearning processes in intertemporal economies with lagged variables. Iprove that determinacy of the steady state is a necessary condition for the convergence of the learning dynamics and I show that the reciprocal is not true characterizing the economies where convergence holds. In the case of existence of cycles I show that there is not, in general, a relationship between determinacy and convergence of the learning process to the cycle. I also analyze the expectational stability of these equilibria.

In vitro and in vivo tumor models for studies of distribution of radiolabelled monoclonal antibodies and fragments.

Colon carcinoma multicellular spheroids were incubated in vitro with radiolabelled MAbs. The more rapid penetration of fragments as compared to intact MAbs was clearly demonstrated. For the study of antibody localization in tumors in vivo, the model of nude mice with ligated kidneys was used. Although very artificial, this model allowed to demonstrate that, without urinary excretion, Fab fragments accumulated more rapidly into the tumor than intact MAbs and disappeared faster from the blood. This difference was less striking for F(ab')2 fragments. In the liver a decreased accumulation of both types of fragments as compared to intact MAbs was observed. Concerning radioimmunotherapy we think that Fab fragments are not useful because of their too short half-life in the circulation and in tumor and because they will probably be too toxic for the kidneys. Intact MAbs and F(ab')2 fragments have each their advantages. Intact MAbs show highest tumor accumulation in mice without ligated kidney, however, they remain mostly on the periphery of tumor nodules, as shown by autoradiography. F(ab')2 fragments have been found to penetrate deeper into the tumor and to accumulate less in the liver. It might be therefore an advantage to combine intact MAbs with F(ab')2 fragments, so that in the tumor two different regions could be attacked whereas in normal tissues toxicity could be distributed to different organs such as to the liver with intact MAbs and to the kidney with F(ab')2 fragments.

Monetary policy misspecification in VAR models

We examine the effects of extracting monetary policy disturbances with semi-structural and structural VARs, using data generated bya limited participation model under partial accommodative and feedback rules. We find that, in general, misspecification is substantial: short run coefficients often have wrong signs; impulse responses and variance decompositions give misleadingrepresentations of the dynamics. Explanations for the results and suggestions for macroeconomic practice are provided.

Testing demographic models of effective population size.

Due to practical difficulties in obtaining direct genetic estimates of effective sizes, conservation biologists have to rely on so-called 'demographic models' which combine life-history and mating-system parameters with F-statistics in order to produce indirect estimates of effective sizes. However, for the same practical reasons that prevent direct genetic estimates, the accuracy of demographic models is difficult to evaluate. Here we use individual-based, genetically explicit computer simulations in order to investigate the accuracy of two such demographic models aimed at investigating the hierarchical structure of populations. We show that, by and large, these models provide good estimates under a wide range of mating systems and dispersal patterns. However, one of the models should be avoided whenever the focal species' breeding system approaches monogamy with no sex bias in dispersal or when a substructure within social groups is suspected because effective sizes may then be strongly overestimated. The timing during the life cycle at which F-statistics are evaluated is also of crucial importance and attention should be paid to it when designing field sampling since different demographic models assume different timings. Our study shows that individual-based, genetically explicit models provide a promising way of evaluating the accuracy of demographic models of effective size and delineate their field of applicability.

Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models

We investigate identifiability issues in DSGE models and their consequences for parameter estimation and model evaluation when the objective function measures the distance between estimated and model impulse responses. We show that observational equivalence, partial and weak identification problems are widespread, that they lead to biased estimates, unreliable t-statistics and may induce investigators to select false models. We examine whether different objective functions affect identification and study how small samples interact with parameters and shock identification. We provide diagnostics and tests to detect identification failures and apply them to a state-of-the-art model.

The Anarak, Jandaq and Posht-e-Badam metamorphic complexes in central Iran: New geological data, relationships and tectonic implications

The Anarak, Jandaq and Posht-e-Badam metamorphic complexes occupy the NW part of the Central-East Iranian Microcontinent and are juxtaposed with the Great Kavir block and Sanandaj-Sirjan zone. Our recent findings redefine the origin of these complexes, so far attributed to the Precambrian-Early Paleozoic orogenic episodes, and now directly related to the tectonic evolution of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean. This tectonic evolution was initiated by Late Ordovician-Early Devonian rifting events and terminated in the Triassic by the Eocimmerian collision event due to the docking of the Cimmerian blocks with the Asiatic Turan block. The ``Variscan accretionary complex'' is a new name we proposed for the most widely distributed metamorphic rocks connected to the Anarak and Jandaq complexes. This accretionary complex exposed from SW of Jandaq to the Anarak and Kabudan areas is a thick and fine grain siliciclastic sequence accompanied by marginal-sea ophiolitic remnants, including gabbro-basalts with a supra-subduction-geochemical signature. New Ar-40/Ar-39 ages are obtained as 333-320 Ma for the metamorphism of this sequence under greenschist to amphibolite facies. Moreover, the limy intercalations in the volcano-sedimentary part of this complex in Godar-e-Siah yielded Upper Devonian-Tournaisian conodonts. The northeastern part of this complex in the Jandaq area was intruded by 215 +/- 15 Ma arc to collisional granite and pegmatites dated by ID-TIMS and its metamorphic rocks are characterized by Some Ar-40/Ar-39 radiometric ages of 163-156 Ma. The ``Variscan'' accretionary complex was northwardly accreted to the Airekan granitic terrane dated at 549 +/- 15 Ma. Later, from the Late Carboniferous to Triassic, huge amounts of oceanic material were accreted to its southern side and penetrated by several seamounts such as the Anarak and Kabudan. This new period of accretion is supported by the 280-230 Ma Ar-40/Ar-39 ages for the Anarak mild high-pressure metamorphic rocks and a 262 Ma U-Pb age for the trondhjemite-rhyolite association of that area. The Triassic Bayazeh flysch filled the foreland basin during the final closure of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean and was partly deposited and/or thrusted onto the Cimmerian Yazd block. The Paleo-Tethys magmatic arc products have been well-preserved in the Late Devonian-Carboniferous Godar-e-Siah intra-arc deposits and the Triassic Nakhlak fore-arc succession. On the passive margin of the Cimmerian block, in the Yazd region, the nearly continuous Upper Paleozoic platform-type deposition was totally interrupted during the Middle to Late Triassic. Local erosion, down to Lower Paleozoic levels, may be related to flexural bulge erosion. The platform was finally unconformably covered by Liassic continental molassic deposits of the Shemshak. One of the extensional periods related to Neo-Tethyan back-arc rifting in Late Cretaceous time finally separated parts of the Eocimmerian collisional domain from the Eurasian Turan domain. The opening and closing of this new ocean, characterized by the Nain and Sabzevar ophiolitic melanges, finally transported the Anarak-Jandaq composite terrane to Central Iran, accompanied by large scale rotation of the Central-East Iranian Microcontinent (CEIM). Due to many similarities between the Posht-e-Badam metamorphic complex and the Anarak-Jandaq composite terrane, the former could be part of the latter, if it was transported further south during Tertiary time. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prime property institutions for a subprime era: Toward innovative models of homeownership

This Article breaks new ground toward contractual and institutional innovation in models of homeownership, equity building, and mortgage enforcement. Inspired by recent developments in the affordable housing sector and other types of public financing schemes, we suggest extending institutional and financial strategies such as time- and place-based division of property rights, conditional subsidies, and credit mediation to alleviate the systemic risks of mortgage foreclosure. Two new solutions offer a broad theoretical basis for such developments in the economic and legal institution of homeownership: a for-profit shared equity scheme led by local governments alongside a private market shared equity model, one of "bootstrapping home buying with purchase options".

A general decomposition formula for derivative prices in stochastic volatility models

We see that the price of an european call option in a stochastic volatilityframework can be decomposed in the sum of four terms, which identifythe main features of the market that affect to option prices: the expectedfuture volatility, the correlation between the volatility and the noisedriving the stock prices, the market price of volatility risk and thedifference of the expected future volatility at different times. We alsostudy some applications of this decomposition.

How much structure in empirical models?

This chapter highlights the problems that structural methods and SVAR approaches have when estimating DSGE models and examining their ability to capture important features of the data. We show that structural methods are subject to severe identification problems due, in large part, to the nature of DSGE models. The problems can be patched up in a number of ways but solved only if DSGEs are completely reparametrized or respecified. The potential misspecification of the structural relationships give Bayesian methods an hedge over classical ones in structural estimation. SVAR approaches may face invertibility problems but simple diagnostics can help to detect and remedy these problems. A pragmatic empirical approach ought to use the flexibility of SVARs against potential misspecificationof the structural relationships but must firmly tie SVARs to the class of DSGE models which could have have generated the data.

Comment on "Geochemistry, petrogenesis and tectonic setting of the Samothraki mafic suite, NE Greece: Trace-element, isotopic and zircon age constraints'' by N. Koglin, D. Kostopoulos & T. Reischmann [Tectonophysics 473, 53-68 (doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2008.10.028)]

The work by Koglin et al. (Koglin, N., Kostopoulos, D., Reichmann, T., 2009. Geochemistry, petrogenesis and tectonic setting of the Samothraki mafic Suite, NE Greece: Trace-element, isotopic and zircon age constraints. Tectonophysics 473, 53-68. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2008.10.028), where the authors have proposed to nullify the scenario presented by Bonev and Stampfli (Bonev, N., Stampfli, G., 2008. Petrology, geochemistry and geodynamic implications of Jurassic island arc magmatism as revealed by mafic volcanic rocks in the Mesozoic low-grade sequence, eastern Rhodope, Bulgaria. Lithos 100, 210-233) is here Put under discussion. The arguments for this proposal are reviewed in the light of available stratigraphic and radiometric age constraints, geochemical signature and tectonics of highly relevant Jurassic ophiolitic suites occurring immediately north of the Samothraki mafic suite. Our conclusion is that the weak arguments and the lack of knowledge on the relevant constraints from the regional geologic information make inconsistent the Proposal and the model of these authors. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ethics outside, within or beyond OR models

Since ethical concerns are calling for more attention within OperationalResearch, we present three approaches to combine Operational Researchmodels with ethics. Our intention is to clarify the trade-offs faced bythe OR community, in particular the tension between the scientificlegitimacy of OR models (ethics outside OR models) and the integrationof ethics within models (ethics within OR models). Presenting anddiscussing an approach that combines OR models with the process of OR(ethics beyond OR models), we suggest rigorous ways to express the relationbetween ethics and OR models. As our work is exploratory, we are trying toavoid a dogmatic attitude and call for further research. We argue thatthere are interesting avenues for research at the theoretical,methodological and applied levels and that the OR community can contributeto an innovative, constructive and responsible social dialogue about itsethics.