On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Modified logit life table system: Principles, empirical validation, and application

Despite its widespread use, the Coale-Demeny model life table system does not capture the extensive variation in age-specific mortality patterns observed in contemporary populations, particularly those of the countries of Eastern Europe and populations affected by HIV/AIDS. Although relational mortality models, such as the Brass logit system, can identify these variations, these models show systematic bias in their predictive ability as mortality levels depart from the standard. We propose a modification of the two-parameter Brass relational model. The modified model incorporates two additional age-specific correction factors (gamma(x), and theta(x)) based on mortality levels among children and adults, relative to the standard. Tests of predictive validity show deviations in age-specific mortality rates predicted by the proposed system to be 30-50 per cent lower than those predicted by the Coale-Demeny system and 15-40 per cent lower than those predicted using the original Brass system. The modified logit system is a two-parameter system, parameterized using values of l(5) and l(60).

As políticas da insegurança : da Scuderie Detetive Le Cocq às masmorras do novo Espírito Santo

A presente dissertação tem como objetivo a análise das políticas de segurança pública e justiça criminal no Espírito Santo entre 1989 e 2013, utilizando metodologia historiográfica e observando a distância entre os objetivos oficiais e as consequências práticas. No primeiro capítulo, me concentro na contextualização histórica das políticas criminais, analisando a formação organizacional do sistema punitivo brasileiro. Coloco ênfase, de um lado, no processo de militarização, isto é, a adoção de hierarquia, disciplina e formação militares nas agências de segurança pública, e de outro lado, e nas sucessivas legislações penais aprovadas pelo Congresso Nacional. Tais processos nacionais se refletem no Espírito Santo, onde se difundiram “grupos de extermínio” como a Scuderie Le Cocq, mas não havia política de segurança pública. A primeira surge em meio a grave crise política, entre 1999 e 2002. Mas os seus propósitos são mais avançados com o processo de reforma administrativa após 2003, quando o governo se esforça por impôr modelos de gestão empresariais e parcerias público privadas à administração estadual, incluindo a segurança pública e sistema penitenciário. Com isto, ocorre uma rápida expansão do encarceramento seletivo em condições extremas de superlotação e violência, desenvolvendo uma indústria carcerária. No segundo capítulo, realizo uma análise na qual relaciono informações criminais, penitenciárias, econômicas e demográficas, tanto no contexto do Brasil quanto do Espírito Santo. Constato que a repressão estatal tem “preferência” por homens, negros, jovens e de baixa escolaridade; por crimes de drogas e contra o patrimônio, com a utilização cada vez maior da prisão provisória. No Espírito Santo o encarceramento seletivo cresce em maior velocidade que na média nacional, o que se reflete no perfil da população carcerária, sendo esta ainda mais negra, jovem, de baixa escolaridade e presa por tráfico e drogas e em regime provisório, com frequentes denúncias fundamentadas de torturas, mortes e desaparecimentos forçados entre as populações criminalizadas.

Evaluation of respiratory parameters in minimally processed lettuce grown under organic or conventional system

The increased preference for minimally processed vegetables has been attributed to the health benefits associated with fresh produce and the demand for ready-to-eat salads. In this paper, lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) was evaluated for the effects of different cropping systems on the respiratory properties. Lettuce was packaged in low density polyethylene bags and stored in a refrigerator at 4 ºC. The concentration of carbon dioxide and oxygen inside the package was monitored during the storage at zero, three, six, eight, ten and twelve days by gas chromatography. Dry matter variation was measured gravimetrically up to day fourteen of storage. Values of respiratory rate for conventional lettuce increased from day 1 to 3 and remained low, while respiratory rate of the organic lettuce increased three-fold up to day 8, stabilizing at a high level. Variation in dry matter during storage also resulted from differences between the two cultivation systems. The highest content of dry matter was achieved by organic lettuce.

Measuring fund performance using multi-factor models: evidence for the Portuguese market

This paper examines the performance of Portuguese equity funds investing in the domestic and in the European Union market, using several unconditional and conditional multi-factor models. In terms of overall performance, we find that National funds are neutral performers, while European Union funds under-perform the market significantly. These results do not seem to be a consequence of management fees. Overall, our findings are supportive of the robustness of conditional multi-factor models. In fact, Portuguese equity funds seem to be relatively more exposed to smallcaps and more value-oriented. Also, they present strong evidence of time-varying betas and, in the case of the European Union funds, of time-varying alphas too. Finally, in terms of market timing, our tests suggest that mutual fund managers in our sample do not exhibit any market timing abilities. Nevertheless, we find some evidence of timevarying conditional market timing abilities but only at the individual fund level.

Extracting and verifying coordination models from source code

Current software development relies increasingly on non-trivial coordination logic for com- bining autonomous services often running on di erent platforms. As a rule, however, in typical non-trivial software systems, such a coordination layer is strongly weaved within the application at source code level. Therefore, its precise identi cation becomes a major methodological (and technical) problem which cannot be overestimated along any program understanding or refactoring process. Open access to source code, as granted in OSS certi cation, provides an opportunity for the devel- opment of methods and technologies to extract, from source code, the relevant coordination information. This paper is a step in this direction, combining a number of program analysis techniques to automatically recover coordination information from legacy code. Such information is then expressed as a model in Orc, a general purpose orchestration language

Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Soil chemical properties affected by cover crops under no-tillage system

The use of cover crops in no-tillage systems (NTS) can significantly improve the soil's fertility. Thus, a study was performed to evaluate changes in chemical properties of soil caused by cover crops in a no-tillage system. The field experiment consisted of the following crop rotation: cover crops/rice/cover crops/rice. The experimental design was in randomized blocks with three replications. Treatments consisted of four cover crops (Brachiaria brizantha(Hochst. ex A. Rich.) Stapf. cv. Marandu, Brachiaria ruziziensis R. Germ. and C.M. Evrard, Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. Colonião, and Pennisetum glaucum(L.) R. Br. cv. BN-2) and fallow (control treatment). Soil samples were collected at the beginning of the summer crop in Oct 2007, Oct 2008 and Oct 2009 at 0-5 cm soil depth. The use of cover crops provided for a significant increase in the level of nutrients, soil organic matter, cation exchange capacity, and base saturation in the soil. Soil fertility improved from the first to second year with the growing of cover crops. The soil under cover crops P. glaucum, B. ruziziensis, and B. brizantha showed higher fertility than the area under fallow.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Dependence relationship between the critical quality factors and social impact

This paper shows the results of the empirical study conducted in 186 tourist accommodation businesses in Spain certified under the "Q for Tourist Quality", own System Quality Management. It was raised with the purpose of analyzing the structure of the relationship between critical quality factors and results-social impact, how they operate and the level of their influence on obtaining these results within the company. Starting from a deep theoretical revision we propose a theoretical model together with the hypotheses to be tested, and we proceed to validation using the technique of Structural Equation Models. The results obtained show that companies wishing to improve their social impact should take into account that leadership is the most important factor to achieve it. Leadership indirectly affects the social impact through its influence on alliances and resources, quality policy/planning, personnel management and learning.

A System Dynamics-Based Simulation Experiment for Testing Mental Model and Performance Effects of Using the Balanced Scorecard

This study develops a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the balanced scorecard approach by means of a system dynamics and feedback learning perspective. Presumably, the balanced scorecard leads to a better understanding of context, allowing managers to externalize and improve their mental models. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of the balanced scorecard approach on mental models and performance. A test based on a simulation experiment that uses a system dynamics model is performed. The experiment included three types of parameters: financial indicators; balanced scorecard indicators; and balanced scorecard indicators with the aid of a strategy map review. Two out of the three hypotheses were confirmed. It was concluded that a strategy map review positively influences mental model similarity, and mental model similarity positively influences performance.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision.

A system dynamics-based simulation

This study develops a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the balanced scorecard approach by means of a system dynamics and feedback learning perspective. Presumably, the balanced scorecard leads to a better understanding of context, allowing managers to externalize and improve their mental models. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of the balanced scorecard approach on mental models and performance. A test based on a simulation experiment that uses a system dynamics model is performed. The experiment included three types of parameters: financial indicators; balanced scorecard indicators; and balanced scorecard indicators with the aid of a strategy map review. Two out of the three hypotheses were confirmed. It was concluded that a strategy map review positively influences mental model similarity, and mental model similarity positively influences performance.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision

Green microfinance: the case of the Cresol System in Southern Brazil

Climate change which until recently seemed a luxury for the microfinance sector, now appears to be crucial for the future of the sector. Due to their low adaptive capacity, the millions of MF clients worldwide happen to be the most vulnerable to a changing climate. Adapting previous analysis conducted in Nepal and Bangladesh by Agrawala and Maëlis (2010) to the Brazilian context, in this inductive qualitative study we aim to assess potential synergies between MF and CC actions and what strategies can be harnessed to better respond to CC vulnerabilities at client/MF level. To do so, we investigated the case of the second largest rural microcredit programme in Brazil, Sistema Cresol de Cooperativas de Crédito Rural com Interação Solidária. Albeit important overlaps between Cresol's product envelope and CC strategies exist, there is still room to realise synergies to both mitigate a new potential source of risk to Cresol's portfolio and to increase clients' adaptive capacity.