Política monetária em tempos de crise

O presente artigo busca investigar como choques externos, como sudden stops e choques nos termos de troca, afetaram a economia brasileira. Para tanto propomos um modelo teórico simples de cash-in-advance com fricções financeiras de forma que choques de liquidez causam mudaças na alocação dos fatores de produção e na produtividade da economia. Em seguida o modelo é estimado para a economia brasileira e as implicações para política monetária sãoo analisadas.

Alocação de recursos: nível ótimo de diversificação intraclasse entre fundos de investimentos abertos no Brasil

Apesar da diversidade de suas estratégias, os retornos dos fundos de investimentos multimercado geralmente exibem correlação positiva com índices de bolsa. Por outro lado, fundos de categorias distintas tendem a ser menos correlacionados entre si se comparados a fundos de mesma categoria. A ideia de diversificação entre fundos de baixa correlação é discutida recorrentemente pela literatura. Na prática, porém, poucos alocadores de portfólios otimizam suas carteiras através das linhas de Markowitz (1953) por exemplo. O objetivo deste estudo é buscar identificar o ponto ótimo de diversificação de ativos (fundos de investimentos) dentro de uma mesma categoria. Como metodologia, buscaremos a minimização do risco idiossincrático dos fundos de investimentos através de simulações com outros fundos de mesma categoria. O estudo contém análises para a escolha do número ideal de ativos em um dado portfólio. Esses resultados beneficiariam, principalmente, o processo decisório das empresas de Wealth Managements, das Consultorias de Investimentos e dos Private Bankers.

Do capital controls boost EME´s resilience to financial crises?

Capital controls are again in vogue as a number of emerging markets have reintroduced these measures in recent years in response to a “flood” of international capital. Policymakers use these tools to buttress their economies against the “sudden stop” risk that accompanies international capital flows. Using a panel VAR model, we show that capital controls appear to make emerging market economies (EMEs) more resistant to financial crises by showing that lower post-crisis output loss is correlated with stronger capital controls. However, EMEs that employ capital controls seem to be more crisis-prone. Thus, policymakers should carefully evaluate whether the benefits of capital controls outweigh their costs.

Reservas internacionais e dívida soberana: uma análise de simulação sob a ótica da sustentabilidade da dívida

Este trabalho analisa, sob a ótica da sustentabilidade da dívida, os efeitos de se manter um elevado nível de reservas internacionais juntamente com um elevado estoque de dívida pública. Busca-se o nível ótimo de reservas para o Brasil através de uma ferramenta de gestão de risco, por simulações de Monte Carlo. Considerando as variáveis estocásticas que afetam a equação de acumulação da dívida, e entendendo a relação entre elas, pode-se estudar as propriedades estocásticas da dinâmica da dívida. Da mesma forma, podemos analisar o impacto fiscal de um determinado nível de reservas ao longo do tempo e verificar quais caminhos se mostram sustentáveis. Sob a ótica da sustentabilidade da dívida, a escolha que gera a melhor relação dívida líquida / PIB para o Brasil é aquela que utiliza o máximo das reservas internacionais para reduzir o endividamento local. No entanto, como há aspectos não capturados nesta análise, tais como os benefícios das reservas em prevenir crises e em funcionar como garantia para investimentos externos, sugere-se que as reservas não excedam os níveis reconhecidos pela literatura internacional que atendam a estes fins. A indicação final deste estudo é que as reservas internacionais funcionam como um instrumento de proteção ao país quando o endividamento e o custo dele não são tão expressivos, como são atualmente no Brasil.

Terms of trade, macroeconomic dynamics and default decisions

A evidência empírica aponta que Termos de Troca é uma variável relevante tanto para dinâmica macroeconômica como para o risco de default em países emergentes. No entanto, a literatura de dívida soberana baseada nos trabalhos de Eaton e Gerzovitz (1981) e Arellano (2008) ainda não explorou de forma adequada as conecções entre a dinâmica de termos de troca e incentivos ao default. Nós contribuímos nessa área, introduzindo volatilidade de Termos de Troca no modelo proposto por Mendoza e Yue (2012), no qual as decisões de dívida soberana são vinculadas à um modelo de equilíbrio geral para a economia doméstica. Nós encontramos que uma economia exposta à volatilidade dos termos de troca consegue produzir uma variabilidade do consumo que supera significativamente a variabilidade do produto, característica que constitui um fato estilizado chave de business cycles de países emergentes. Nossos exercícios também mostram que decisões de default são geradas por mudanças bruscas nos termos de troca, mas não necessariamente estão vinculados à estados ruins da economia.

Winning in Brazil: how institutional voids affect the entry decision making process of foreign venture capital firms coming to Brazil

The master thesis for the achievement of the academic status master of science in international management (MPGI) will aim to solve the research question of how institutional voids affect the entry decision-making process of foreign venture capital firms coming to Brazil. This is a timely matter since in the past years there has been a sudden eruption of foreign VC involvement in Brazil. Based on the actionable framework by Khanna and Palpeu (2010) we conducted quantitative as well as qualitative research with two sets of interview partners in a two-phase analysis. We interviewed experts from VC firms, foreign VC firms based in Brazil and perspective VC firms that are looking to come to Brazil. We started with the former, derived lessons learned and analyzed how they affect the latter in reaching a decision. As we expected we found that depending on the industry that ventures are in, institutional voids can either pose an opportunity or a threat and hence attract or push away potential VC firms entering Brazil. Opportunities exist especially when exploiting institutional voids, for example through ventures in the marketplace efficiency. Threats are posed by investments in for instance hard infrastructure, where the economic, political and judicial systems as well as corruption and bureaucracy play demanding roles.

The 1999 Brazilian financial crisis: how to create a financial crisis by trying to avoid one

This paper attempts to understand the Brazilian financial crisis mainly from an ‘endogenous-failure’ perspective. It argues that the general mechanisms that led to this financial crisis were in essence endogenous to the workings of an economy facing a sudden liberalisation, a surge in capital inflows, ineffective regulation and weak governance. This paper will also argue that within this general framework, there is a very specific ‘Minskyian’ feature to the Brazilian crisis, which made it different from other financial crises both in Latin America and in East Asia: how a particularly radical monetary policy led to a major financial fragility in the financial sector and State finances, and to an unmanageable Ponzi finance in the accounts of the Federal Government.

Humanitarian operations in Brazil: a review of natural disasters in the last decade

This research used documentary analysis to identify the main natural disasters in Brazil in the last decade (2003 to 2013). Results provided evidence that operations and impacts differ in sudden-onset and slow-onset disasters and that Government is the main player in the Humanitarian Operations in Brazi

Flexible information acquisition and optimal Tobin tax in tractable dynamic global games

My dissertation focuses on dynamic aspects of coordination processes such as reversibility of early actions, option to delay decisions, and learning of the environment from the observation of other people’s actions. This study proposes the use of tractable dynamic global games where players privately and passively learn about their actions’ true payoffs and are able to adjust early investment decisions to the arrival of new information to investigate the consequences of the presence of liquidity shocks to the performance of a Tobin tax as a policy intended to foster coordination success (chapter 1), and the adequacy of the use of a Tobin tax in order to reduce an economy’s vulnerability to sudden stops (chapter 2). Then, it analyzes players’ incentive to acquire costly information in a sequential decision setting (chapter 3). In chapter 1, a continuum of foreign agents decide whether to enter or not in an investment project. A fraction λ of them are hit by liquidity restrictions in a second period and are forced to withdraw early investment or precluded from investing in the interim period, depending on the actions they chose in the first period. Players not affected by the liquidity shock are able to revise early decisions. Coordination success is increasing in the aggregate investment and decreasing in the aggregate volume of capital exit. Without liquidity shocks, aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to frictions like a tax on short term capitals. In this case, a Tobin tax always increases success incidence. In the presence of liquidity shocks, this invariance result no longer holds in equilibrium. A Tobin tax becomes harmful to aggregate investment, which may reduces success incidence if the economy does not benefit enough from avoiding capital reversals. It is shown that the Tobin tax that maximizes the ex-ante probability of successfully coordinated investment is decreasing in the liquidity shock. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a Tobin tax in the same setting of the global game model proposed in chapter 1, with the exception that the liquidity shock is considered stochastic, i.e, there is also aggregate uncertainty about the extension of the liquidity restrictions. It identifies conditions under which, in the unique equilibrium of the model with low probability of liquidity shocks but large dry-ups, a Tobin tax is welfare improving, helping agents to coordinate on the good outcome. The model provides a rationale for a Tobin tax on economies that are prone to sudden stops. The optimal Tobin tax tends to be larger when capital reversals are more harmful and when the fraction of agents hit by liquidity shocks is smaller. Chapter 3 focuses on information acquisition in a sequential decision game with payoff complementar- ity and information externality. When information is cheap relatively to players’ incentive to coordinate actions, only the first player chooses to process information; the second player learns about the true payoff distribution from the observation of the first player’s decision and follows her action. Miscoordination requires that both players privately precess information, which tends to happen when it is expensive and the prior knowledge about the distribution of the payoffs has a large variance.

Determinação da toxicidade aguda e caracterização de risco ambiental do herbicida Roundup (glifosato) sobre três espécies de peixes

Considering their commercial importance, as these are the species of freshwater fish more commercialized in Brazil, their occurence in different kinds of aquatic environments (lakes, rivers and dams) and for being tolerant to a wide range of variation of various physical parameters and chemical water, the fish species Oreochromis niloticus, Cyprinus carpio and Colossoma macropomum were chosen for this study, furthermore, to test the toxicity we used the herbicide Roundup. The fingerlings of tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), commun carp (Cyprinus carpio) and tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum) were submitted to the herbicide roundup in the following concentrations: 0.0 (control); 18,06; 19,10; 20,14; 21,18 and 22,22 mg.L-1, 0.0 (control); 13,89; 14,86; 15,83; 16,81 and 17,78 mg.L-1, and 0.0 (control); 18,06; 19,10; 20,14; 21,18 and 22,22 mg.L-1, respectively, three for 96 hours. The LC50 - 96h for O. niloticus, C. carpio and C. macropomum was 21,63, 15,33 and 20,06 mg.L-1 of the herbicide roundup, respectively. The results show that this herbicide is classified as slightly toxic to the three species. The values of dissolved oxygen, pH and temperature recorded in the aquarium control and aquarium experimental of the three fish species have remained without significant variations during the tests, which reduces the possibility of death caused by sudden variations of these parameters during the 96 hours the experiment. The values of LC50 between different species of fish were observed, noting that the species O.niloticus, C. carpio and C. macropomum showed no expressive differences. The values of environmental risk of Roundup were calculated to obtain more stringent parameters in assessing the dangerousness of those on nontargets. The risk of environmental contamination by Roundup for the Nile tilapia, common carp, and tambaqui are low for the lowest application rate (1 L.ha-1) and depths (1.5 and 2.0 m). The dilution of 100%, the highest recommended dose (5 L.ha-1) and depths (1.5 and 2.0 m) the risk is moderate for the three species. The values of the Risk Ratio (QR) were greater than 0,1, indicating that the values of the CAE and LC50 are above acceptable levels and there is a need, this study, a refinement in ecotoxicological tests

Estudo sobre as potencialidades de compósitos à base de gesso e fibras de coco seco para aplicação na construção civil

The use of gypsum, one of the oldest building materials for the construction industry in the country has been experiencing a significant and steady growth, due to its low cost and some of its properties that confer comparative advantage over other binder materials. Its use comprises various applications including the coating of walls and the production of internal seals and linings. Moreover, the fibers are being increasingly incorporated into arrays fragile in an attempt to improve the properties of the composite by reducing the number of cracks, the opening of the same and its propagation velocity. Other properties, depending on the function of the component material or construction, among these thermal and acoustic performances, are of great importance in the context of buildings and could be improved, that is, having better performance with this embodiment. Conduct a comparative study of physico-mechanical, thermal and acoustic composite gypsum incorporating dry coconut fiber, in the form of blanket, constituted the main objective of this work. Improving the thermal and acoustic performances of precast gypsum, used for lining and internal vertical fences of buildings, was the purpose of development of these composites. To evaluate the effect of fiber content on the properties of the composites were used to manufacture the composite layer with different thicknesses. The composites were fabricated in the form of plates with dimensions of 500x500x24mm. To facilitate the comparative study of the properties were also made with material gypsum boards only. We then determined the physico-mechanical, thermal and acoustical plaster and composites. The results indicated that the composites were significant gains in relation to thermal performance and also acoustic, in certain frequency range, increasing the thickness of the blanket. Concerning other physical-mechanical properties, the results showed that although the compressive strength was lower than for the composite did not occur after a fracture catastrophic failure. The same trend was observed with regard to resistance to bending, since the composites have not suffered sudden rupture and still continued after the load supporting point of maximum load

Contribuição da catodoluminescência para o entendimento da diagênese da formação Jandaíra: áreas do campo de petróleo da fazenda Belém e Lajedo do Rosário

The general objective of this study was to contribute to the understanding of the chemical evolution of fluids that percolate through carbonate rocks of the Jandaíra Formation. The oxidation and reduction conditions in which grains, source and cement were formed was investigated using the cathodoluminescence technique (CL). The study area is located in the west part of the Potiguar Basin (Fazenda Belém field) and Rosário Ledge (Felipe Guerra municipality, State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil). The analysis of thin sections of carbonate rocks under CL revealed that grains (allochemical or not) and diagenetic products (micritization, dolomitization, neomorphism and cementation) exhibit since absence of luminescence the various luminescence colors (yellow, orange, red, brown, and blue) in a variety of intensities. As pure calcite shows dark blue luminescence, the occurrence of different luminescence colors in calcite crystals suggest one or more punctual crystal defects such as free electron, free space and impurity. The dyeing of thin sections with alizarin and potassium ferrocyanide revealed the absence of ferrous carbonate in the different lithotypes of Jandaíra Formation. Therefore, the different colors and intensities of CL observed in these rocks are probably caused by the presence of ion activators such as Mn2+ and is not an activator/inhibitor combination. In the same way, the absence of luminescence is very probably caused by the absence of activator ions and not due to the low concentration of inhibitor ions such as Fe2+. The incorporation of Mn2+ in the different members of the Jandaíra Formation must have been controlled by the redox state of the depositional environment and diagenesis. Therefore, it is possible that the luminescent members have been formed (e.g.,ooids) or have been modified (gastropod neomorphism) under reduction conditions in the depositional environments, in subsurface during the burial, or, in the case of Rosario Ledge samples , during the post-burial return to surface conditions. As regards the sudden changes from low to moderate and to strong luminescence, these features should indicate the precipitation of a fluid with chemical fluctuations, which formed the frequent zonations in the block cement of the Rosario Ledge samples. This study suggests that the different intensities and colors of CL should be correlated with the Mn2+ and Fe2+ contents, and stable isotopes of samples to determine the salinity, temperature, pH e Eh conditions during deposition

Danos da morte súbita dos citros sobre a produção de laranja

A Morte Súbita dos Citros (MSC) afeta laranjeiras doces (Citrus sinensis) e algumas tangerineiras (Citrus reticulata) enxertadas em limoeiro 'Cravo' (Citrus limonia) no norte do Estado de São Paulo e sul do Triângulo Mineiro. O progresso da doença nos pomares têm causado grande preocupação para o agronegócio citrícola. Para caracterizar e quantificar os danos causados pela MSC, a produção de frutos (peso total e número de frutos por planta e tamanho dos frutos) foi avaliada em quatro talhões para cada combinação variedade ('Hamlin', 'Pêra', 'Natal' e 'Valência') / classe de idade (três a cinco anos, seis a dez anos e 11 a 15 anos). em cada talhão, as plantas foram classificadas de acordo com a severidade de MSC (0 = sadia, 1 = sintomas iniciais e 2 = sintomas severos). Para cada nível de severidade foram colhidas dez plantas escolhidas ao acaso. Os danos foram caracterizados pela redução do peso total de frutos por planta (28% e 50% para o nível 1 e 2, respectivamente), do número total de frutos por planta (12% e 26% para o nível 1 e 2, respectivamente) e do tamanho do fruto (22% e 41% para nível 1 e 2, respectivamente). As variedades de laranja não diferiram em relação à porcentagem de redução para todas as variáveis de produção avaliadas. As plantas mais jovens tiveram a maior redução no número total de frutos por planta e as plantas com mais de cinco anos de idade tiveram as maiores reduções no tamanho dos frutos. As classes de idade não diferiram na porcentagem de redução do peso total de frutos por planta.

Causes of death of thoroughbred racehorses at Octavio Dupont Veterinary Hospital, Brazilian Jockey Club, Rio de Janeiro

Existem poucas pesquisas que abordam estudos epidemiológicos de mortes em cavalos de corrida de uma forma ampla. A maioria restringe-se a uma afecção ou procedimento específico. O Brasil não possui um programa de monitoramento de mortes instituído. Através de um estudo descritivo em associação a metodologia multivariada de análise, realizou-se um estudo epidemiológico de causa mortis relacionadas com afecções musculosqueléticas (MS), gastrointestinais (GI), sistema respiratório (RES), neurológico (NEU) e mortes súbitas (SD) durante os anos de 2002 a 2008 no Hospital Octavio Dupont, Rio de Janeiro. Os machos representaram o sexo mais afetado e a causa mortis relacionada com a taxa geral de mortalidade por grandes grupos de causas determinadas apresentou a seguinte ordem decrescentemente: MS>GI>SD>NEU>RES. A maioria dos óbitos registrados foi de cavalos na faixa etária de quatro a cinco anos (ID4-ID5). Seguidamente, observaram-se as seguintes relações de correspondência: (Triênio = SM-ID>5-SD; ID>5-GI; ID4-5-MS; SF-ID<4-RES/NEU); (Quatriênio = SM - ID>5 - GI; SF - ID<4 - NEU; ID4-5 - MS; GI - ID>5). O presente estudo aponta a importância e necessidade de estudos epidemiológicos sobre lesões em cavalos atletas, objetivando o diagnostico, reconhecimento de fatores predisponentes e prevenção.

High-resolution electrocardiography in dogs under doxorubicin-induced cardiomyopathy

Determinaram-se a ocorrência de potencial tardio em cães com cardiomiopatia induzida pela doxorrubicina e sua relação com o desenvolvimento de arritmias ventriculares ou morte súbita. Sete cães adultos, sem raça definida, de ambos os sexos foram utilizados. A cardiomiopatia foi induzida por infusão venosa lenta de doxorrubicina (30mg/m²) em intervalos de 21 dias, até uma dose total cumulativa de 240mg/m². Os animais foram monitorados ecocardiograficamente. Após a confirmação da cardiomiopatia, foi feito o registro da eletrocardiografia de alta resolução. Potenciais tardios foram observados em dois animais que morreram subitamente poucos dias após.