On information and competition in private value auctions

How much information does an auctioneer want bidders to have in a private value environment?We address this question using a novel approach to ordering information structures based on the property that in private value settings more information leads to a more disperse distribution of buyers updated expected valuations. We define the class of precision criteria following this approach and different notions of dispersion, and relate them to existing criteria of informativeness. Using supermodular precision, we obtain three results: (1) a more precise information structure yields a more efficient allocation; (2) the auctioneer provides less than the efficient level of information since more information increases bidder informational rents; (3) there is a strategic complementarity between information and competition, so that both the socially efficient and the auctioneer s optimal choice of precision increase with the number of bidders, and both converge as the number of bidders goes to infinity.

Health correlates of overweight and obesity in adults aged 50 years and over: results from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE)

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To examine the association between overweight/obesity and several self-reported chronic diseases, symptoms and disability measures. METHODS: Data from eleven European countries participating in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe were used. 18,584 non-institutionalised individuals aged 50 years and over with BMI > or = 18.5 (kg/m2) were included. BMI was categorized into normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9), overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9) and obesity (BMI > or = 30). Dependent variables were 13 diagnosed chronic conditions, 11 health complaints, subjective health and physical disability measures. For both genders, multiple logistic regressions were performed adjusting for age, socioeconomic status and behaviour risks. RESULTS: The odds ratios for high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, arthritis, joint pain and swollen legs were significantly increased for overweight and obese adults. Compared to normal-weight individuals, the odds ratio (OR) for reporting > or = 2 chronic diseases was 2.4 (95% CI 1.9-2.9) for obese men and 2.7 (95% CI 2.2-3.1) for obese women. Overweight and obese women were more likely to report health symptoms. Obesity in men (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.6), and overweight (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.6) and obesity (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.3-0.5) in women, were associated with poorer subjective health (i.e. a decreased risk of reporting excellent, very good or good subjective health). Disability outcomes were those showing the greatest differences in strength of association across BMI categories, and between genders. For example, the OR for any difficulty in walking 100 metres was non-significant at 0.8 for overweight men, at 1.9 (95% CI 1.3-2.7) for obese men, at 1.4 (95% CI 1.1-1.8) for overweight women, and at 3.5 (95% CI 2.6-4.7) for obese women. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the impact of increased BMI on morbidity and disability. Healthcare stakeholders of the participating countries should be aware of the substantial burden that obesity places on the general health and autonomy of adults aged over 50.

The impact of firing costs on turnover and unemployment: Evidence from the Colombian labour market reform

Reductions in firing costs are often advocated as a way of increasingthe dynamism of labour markets in both developed and less developed countries. Evidence from Europe and the U.S. on the impact of firing costs has, however, been mixed. Moreover, legislative changes both in Europe and the U.S. have been limited. This paper, instead, examines the impact of the Colombian Labour Market Reform of 1990, which substantially reduced dismissal costs. I estimate the incidence of a reduction in firing costs on worker turnover by exploiting the temporal change in the Colombian labour legislation as well as the variability in coverage between formal and informal sector workers. Using a grouping estimator to control for common aggregate shocks and selection, I find that the exit hazard rates into and out of unemployment increased after the reform by over 1% for formal workers (covered by the legislation) relative to informal workers (uncovered). The increase of the hazards implies a net decrease in unemployment of a third of a percentage point, which accounts for about one quarter of the fall in unemployment during the period of study.

Emergence of Cooperation on Static and Dynamic Networks

Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics used to analyze situation where two or more agents are interacting. Originally it was developed as a model for conflicts and collaborations between rational and intelligent individuals. Now it finds applications in social sciences, eco- nomics, biology (particularly evolutionary biology and ecology), engineering, political science, international relations, computer science, and philosophy. Networks are an abstract representation of interactions, dependencies or relationships. Net- works are extensively used in all the fields mentioned above and in many more. Many useful informations about a system can be discovered by analyzing the current state of a network representation of such system. In this work we will apply some of the methods of game theory to populations of agents that are interconnected. A population is in fact represented by a network of players where one can only interact with another if there is a connection between them. In the first part of this work we will show that the structure of the underlying network has a strong influence on the strategies that the players will decide to adopt to maximize their utility. We will then introduce a supplementary degree of freedom by allowing the structure of the population to be modified along the simulations. This modification allows the players to modify the structure of their environment to optimize the utility that they can obtain.

Effect of gossypol on survival and reproduction of the zoophytophagous stinkbug Podisus nigrispinus (Dallas)

Effect of gossypol on survival and reproduction of the zoophytophagous stinkbug Podisus nigrispinus (Dallas). Gossypol is a sesquiterpene aldehyde found in cotton plants conferring resistance against herbivory. Although the effect of this sesquiterpenoid on insect pests of cotton is known, the interaction of this compound with zoophytophagous predators such as Podisus nigrispinus (Dallas) (Hemiptera, Pentatomidae) has not been studied so far. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of the purified gossypol on nymphs and adults of P. nigrispinus. Nymphs and adults of this predator were fed on Tenebrio molitor pupae and supplemented with solutions of gossypol at concentrations of 0.00, 0.05, 0.10, and 0.20% (w/v) during the nymphal and adult stages or, only during the adult stage of P. nigrispinus. The nymphal stage of the predator was, on average, two days longer when suplemmented with gossypol. Emerged adults had lower fecundity and egg hatching, especially at the highest gossypol concentration (0.20%) ingested during the nymphal and adult stages. However, this predator was not affected when it ingested the compound only during the adult stage. P. nigrispinus can have delayed nymphal development and lower reproductive performance when ingesting the gossypol during the nymphal and adult stages, but only at higher concentrations of gossypol than that produced by cotton plants.

Influence of different tropical fruits on biological and behavioral aspects of the Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera, Tephritidae)

Influence of different tropical fruits on biological and behavioral aspects of the Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera, Tephritidae). Studies on Ceratitis capitata, a world fruit pest, can aid the implementation of control programs by determining the plants with higher vulnerability to attacks and plants able to sustain their population in areas of fly distribution. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the influence of eight tropical fruits on the following biological and behavioral parameters of C. capitata: emergence percentage, life cycle duration, adult size, egg production, longevity, fecundity, egg viability, and oviposition acceptance. The fruits tested were: acerola (Malpighia glabra L.), cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.), star fruit (Averrhoa carambola L.), guava (Psidium guajava L.), soursop (Annona muricata L.), yellow mombin (Spondias mombin L.), Malay apple (Syzygium malaccense L.), and umbu (Spondias tuberosa L.). The biological parameters were obtained by rearing the recently hatched larvae on each of the fruit kinds. Acceptance of fruits for oviposition experiment was assessed using no-choice tests, as couples were exposed to two pieces of the same fruit. The best performances were obtained with guava, soursop, and star fruit. Larvae reared on cashew and acerola fruits had regular performances. No adults emerged from yellow mombin, Malay apple, or umbu. Fruit species did not affect adult longevity, female fecundity, or egg viability. Guava, soursop, and acerola were preferred for oviposition, followed by star fruit, Malay apple, cashew, and yellow mombin. Oviposition did not occur on umbu. In general, fruits with better larval development were also more accepted for oviposition.

The effect of environment on development and survival of pupae of the necrophagous fly Ophyra albuquerquei Lopes (Diptera, Muscidae)

The effect of environment on development and survival of pupae of the necrophagous fly Ophyra albuquerquei Lopes (Diptera, Muscidae). Species of Ophyra Robineau-Desvoidy, 1830 are found in decomposing bodies, usually in fresh, bloated and decay stages. Ophyra albuquerquei Lopes, for example, can be found in animal carcasses. The influence of environmental factors has not been evaluated in puparia of O. albuquerquei. Thus, the focus of this work was motivated by the need for models to predict the development of a necrophagous insect as a function of abiotic factors. Colonies of O. albuquerquei were maintained in the laboratory to obtain pupae. On the tenth day of each month 200 pupae, divided equally into 10 glass jars, were exposed to the environment and checked daily for adult emergence of each sample. We concluded that the high survival rate observed suggested that the diets used for rearing the larvae and maintaining the adults were appropriate. Also, the data adjusted to robust generalized linear models and there were no interruptions of O. albuquerquei pupae development within the limits of temperatures studied in southern Rio Grande do Sul, given the high survival presented.

On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Reflections on gains and losses: A 2x2x7 experiment

We test whether risk attitudes change when losses instead of gains areinvolved. The study of gain-loss asymmetries has been largely confinedto reflected choices, where all the money amounts of a positiveprospect are multiplied by minus one. We define the decomposition reflection = translation + probability switch, and experimentally findboth a translation effect (risk attraction becomes more frequent whengains are translated into losses) and a probability switch effect (riskattraction becomes more frequent when the probability of the best outcomedecreases). Surprisingly, the switch effect is somewhat stronger than thetranslation effect, negating a conventional reflection effect when onestarts with choices between gains with a low probability of the bestoutcome. We conclude by arguing that, while both the translation effectand the switch effect contradict the expected utility hypothesis, thetranslation effect implies a deeper violation of standard preference theory.

Relationships of Scincid Lizards (Mabuya spp; Reptilia: Scincidae) from the Cape Verde Islands Based on Mitochondrial and Nuclear DNA Sequences

Partial DNA sequences from two mitochondrial (mt) and one nuclear gene (cytochrome b, 12S rRNA, and C-mos) were used to estimate the phylogenetic relationships among the six extant species of skinks endemic to the Cape Verde Archipelago. The species form a monophyletic unit, indicating a single colonization of the islands, probably from West Africa. Mabuya vaillanti and M. delalandii are sister taxa, as indicated by morphological characters. Mabuya fogoensis and M. stangeri are closely related, but the former is probably paraphyletic. Mabuya spinalis and M. salensis are also probably paraphyletic. Within species, samples from separate islands always form monophyletic groups. Some colonization events can be hypothesized, which are in line with the age of the islands. C-mos variation is concordant with the topology derived from mtDNA.

Adverse events to antiretrovirals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: effect on mortality and treatment modification.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) decreases morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients but is associated with considerable adverse events (AEs). METHODS: We examined the effect of AEs to ART on mortality, treatment modifications and drop-out in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. A cross-sectional evaluation of prevalence of 13 clinical and 11 laboratory parameters was performed in 1999 in 1,078 patients on ART. AEs were defined as abnormalities probably or certainly related to ART. A score including the number and severity of AEs was defined. The subsequent progression to death, drop-out and treatment modification due to intolerance were evaluated according to the baseline AE score and characteristics of individual AEs. RESULTS: Of the 1,078 patients, laboratory AEs were reported in 23% and clinical AEs in 45%. During a median follow up of 5.9 years, laboratory AEs were associated with higher mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-1.5; P < 0.001) per score point. For clinical AEs no significant association with increased mortality was found. In contrast, an increasing score for clinical AEs (HR 1.11,95% CI 1.04-1.18; P = 0.002), but not for laboratory AEs (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.97-1.17; P = 0.17), was associated with antiretroviral treatment modification. AEs were not associated with a higher drop-out rate. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of laboratory AEs to antiretroviral drugs is associated with a higher mortality. Physicians seem to change treatments to relieve clinical symptoms, while accepting laboratory AEs. Minimizing laboratory drug toxicity seems warranted and its influence on survival should be further evaluated.

Veliidae (Insecta, Heteroptera, Gerromorpha) from southeastern Brazil: three new species from Rio de Janeiro State, a new species group for Neotropical Rhagovelia Mayr, and notes on distribution and synonymy

Microvelia nelsoni sp. nov., M. takiyae sp. nov., and Rhagovelia mangaratiba sp. nov. are described. Rhagovelia scitula and R. whitei are transferred from the robusta group to the new whitei group. Rhagovelia denticulata is synonymized under R. scitula. Microvelia longipes, Oiovelia brasiliensis, Rhagovelia sooretama, R. trianguloides, R. vaniniae, and Stridulivelia quadrispinosa are recorded for the first time from Rio de Janeiro State. Additional new municipality records in Rio de Janeiro State are presented for Microvelia braziliensis, M. ioana, M. mimula, M. pulchella, Paravelia basalis, P. itatiayana, Rhagovelia accedens, R. agra, R. aiuruoca, R. elegans, R. hambletoni, R. henryi, R. itatiaiana, R. lucida, R. macta, R. modesta, R. novana, R. scitula, R. tenuipes, R. tijuca, R. triangula, and R. zela. Corrections are presented for the previously published distributions of Rhagovelia aiuruoca, R. lucida, R. macta, and R. triangula.

Hypothesis on immigration and welfare

The number of hypothesis trying to explain which are the reasons behind the decision to migrate to work into a developed country are diverse and at the same time, difficult to test due to the multiplicity of factors which affect it. This papers attempts to move forward trying to disentangle which are the socio-economic factors that explain the differences in the figures of immigrants in the OECD countries. We show empirical evidence about the determinants of the migratory flows to 17 OECD countries from 65 countries in the 1980-2000 period. Our results reveal the importance to differentiate the inflows composition by at least income in the origin countries. Thus, regarding inflows from non-high-income countries, the results suggest that there is a pull effect from monetary and not real income, and then, the welfare magnets hypothesis should be rejected. This group reacts more to the migratory policy than the inflows coming from high-income countries, although those policies designed to slow down the inflows have not been able, in the aggregate, to reduce them.

The Effect of Amifostine on Acute and Late Radiation Side Effects in Head and Neck Cancer Patients

Objective: We aimed to investigate the effect of amifostine on acute and late side effects, and its tolerability in head and neck cancer patients treated with radiotherapy (RT). Material and Methods: The study included 87 patients with primary head and neck cancers and cervical lymph node metastases from unknown primary cancers treated with RT alone or combined with chemotherapy (CT). Forty-one patients (47%) received amifostine combined with RT (ART group) and 46 patients (52%) received RT without amifostine (RT group). The patients were evaluated every week during the treatment and at month 1 and 2 after the completion of RT for acute side effects and month 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 after the treatment for late side effects according to SOMA/LENT scale. Amifostine was administered prior to RT, along with anti-emetic prophylaxis. The two groups were compared with the Student's t and Mann-Whitney U and Chi-square tests. Results: The ART group had significantly less toxicity (grade! 1 mucositis, grade 2 fibrosis) than patients in the RT group (p=0.001, p=0.03, respectively). At week 3 of RT grade 2 mucositis developed in two patients (5%) in the ART group and 10 patients (22%) in the RT group (p=0.02). The protective effect of amifostine on skin reactions developed at week 4 of RT (p=0.05). Grade 3 xerostomia at 9, 12, and 15 months of follow-up (p=0.02, p=0.02, and p=0.02, respectively), grade 2 xerostomia at 18 and 24 months (p=0.02 and p=0.01, respectively) and fibrosis at 15, 18 and 24 months (p=0.05, p=0.02 and p=0.02, respectively) decreased markedly in the ART group compared with the RT group. Emesis was the most common adverse effect of amifostine. Conclusion: Daily administration of amifostine during RT was effective in avoiding late grade 2-3 xerostomia, as well as grade 2 fibrosis.