Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Hilbert space on probability density functions with Aitchison geometry

Compositional data analysis motivated the introduction of a complete Euclidean structure in the simplex of D parts. This was based on the early work of J. Aitchison (1986) and completed recently when Aitchinson distance in the simplex was associated with an inner product and orthonormal bases were identified (Aitchison and others, 2002; Egozcue and others, 2003). A partition of the support of a random variable generates a composition by assigning the probability of each interval to a part of the composition. One can imagine that the partition can be refined and the probability density would represent a kind of continuous composition of probabilities in a simplex of infinitely many parts. This intuitive idea would lead to a Hilbert-space of probability densitiesby generalizing the Aitchison geometry for compositions in the simplex into the set probability densities

Light and electron microscopy of Myxobolus sciades n. sp. (Myxozoa), a parasite of the gills of the Brazilian fish Sciades herzbergii (Block, 1794) (Teleostei: Ariidae)

A myxosporean parasite in the gill lamellae of the freshwater teleost fish, Sciades herzbergii (Ariidae) (Block, 1794), from the Poti River (Northeast of Brazil) was described by light and electron microscopy studies. Polysporic histozoic cyst-like plasmodia containing several life-cycle stages, including mature spores, were observed. The spores were pyriform and uninucleate, measuring 9.15 ± 0.39 μm (n = 50) long, 4.36 ± 0.23 μm (n = 25) wide and 2.61 ± 0.31 μm (n = 25) thick. Elongated pyriform polar capsules (PC) were of equal size (4.44 ± 0.41 μm long and 1.41 ± 0.42 μm in diameter) and each contained a polar filament with 9-10 coils obliquely arranged in relation to the axis of PC. The PC wall was composed of two layers of different electron densities. Histological analysis revealed the close contact of the cyst-like plasmodia with the basal portion of the epithelial gill layer, which exhibited some alterations in the capillary vessels. Based on the morphological and ultrastructural differences, the similarity of the spore features to those of the genus Myxobolus and the specificity of this host to previously described species, we describe a new species named Myxobolus sciades n. sp. in this study.

Negative control of quorum sensing by RpoN (sigma54) in Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1.

In Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1, the expression of several virulence factors such as elastase, rhamnolipids, and hydrogen cyanide depends on quorum-sensing regulation, which involves the lasRI and rhlRI systems controlled by N-(3-oxododecanoyl)-L-homoserine lactone and N-butyryl-L-homoserine lactone, respectively, as signal molecules. In rpoN mutants lacking the transcription factor sigma(54), the expression of the lasR and lasI genes was elevated at low cell densities, whereas expression of the rhlR and rhlI genes was markedly enhanced throughout growth by comparison with the wild type and the complemented mutant strains. As a consequence, the rpoN mutants had elevated levels of both signal molecules and overexpressed the biosynthetic genes for elastase, rhamnolipids, and hydrogen cyanide. The quorum-sensing regulatory protein QscR was not involved in the negative control exerted by RpoN. By contrast, in an rpoN mutant, the expression of the gacA global regulatory gene was significantly increased during the entire growth cycle, whereas another global regulatory gene, vfr, was downregulated at high cell densities. In conclusion, it appears that GacA levels play an important role, probably indirectly, in the RpoN-dependent modulation of the quorum-sensing machinery of P. aeruginosa.

Laser-ultraviolet-A induced ultra weak photon emission in human skin cells: A biophotonic comparison between keratinocytes and fibroblasts.

Photons participate in many atomic and molecular interactions and processes. Recent biophysical research has discovered an ultraweak radiation in biological tissues. It is now recognized that plants, animal and human cells emit this very weak biophotonic emission which can be readily measured with a sensitive photomultiplier system. UVA laser induced biophotonic emission of cultured cells was used in this report with the intention to detect biophysical changes between young and adult fibroblasts as well as between fibroblasts and keratinocytes. With suspension densities ranging from 1-8 x 106 cells/ml, it was evident that an increase of the UVA-laser-light induced photon emission intensity could be observed in young as well as adult fibroblastic cells. By the use of this method to determine ultraweak light emission, photons in cell suspensions in low volumes (100 microl) could be detected, in contrast to previous procedures using quantities up to 10 ml. Moreover, the analysis has been further refined by turning off the photomultiplier system electronically during irradiation leading to the first measurements of induced light emission in the cells after less than 10 micros instead of more than 100 milliseconds. These significant changes lead to an improvement factor up to 106 in comparison to classical detection procedures. In addition, different skin cells as fibroblasts and keratinocytes stemming from the same donor were measured using this new highly sensitive method in order to find new biophysical insight of light pathways. This is important in view to develop new strategies in biophotonics especially for use in alternative therapies.

Monitoring temporal fluctuations of Culex quinquefasciatus using oviposition traps containing attractant and larvicide in an urban environment in Recife, Brazil

The use of attractants and larvicides in oviposition traps is of practical interest for the surveillance and control of urban mosquitoes. In addition to increasing the safety of the traps, this combination is essential for an attract-and-kill control strategy based on trapping mosquito eggs. The combination of Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Bti) and grass infusion (GI) vs. GI alone were tested for their ability to attract in paired BR-OVT traps in the backyards of 10 houses in Recife, Brazil, for a period of 45 days. Results show that females prefer to oviposit in traps containing Bti (363 compared with 251 egg rafts over 45 days). Results from a one-year trial on the efficacy of BR-OVT traps loaded with GI and Bti as a sampling tool to monitor temporal fluctuations in the population densities of Culex quinquefasciatus in an urban environment are also reported. From December 2006-January 2007, one trap per home was installed and maintained for 348 consecutive days in 134-151 houses located in three urban blocks. Throughout the one-year field trial a total of 43,151 Culex egg rafts were collected in the traps. The data show that BR-OVT loaded with GI and Bti is sensitive enough to demonstrate continuous reproductive activity of Cux. quinquefasciatus in the study area throughout the year and to monitor temporal fluctuations in population density.

Habitat suitability of Anopheles vector species and association with human malaria in the Atlantic Forest in south-eastern Brazil

Every year, autochthonous cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria occur in low-endemicity areas of Vale do Ribeira in the south-eastern part of the Atlantic Forest, state of São Paulo, where Anopheles cruzii and Anopheles bellator are considered the primary vectors. However, other species in the subgenus Nyssorhynchus of Anopheles (e.g., Anopheles marajoara) are abundant and may participate in the dynamics of malarial transmission in that region. The objectives of the present study were to assess the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to associate the presence of these species with malaria cases in the municipalities of the Vale do Ribeira. Potential habitat suitability modelling was applied to determine both the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to establish the density of each species. Poisson regression was utilized to associate malaria cases with estimated vector densities. As a result, An. cruzii was correlated with the forested slopes of the Serra do Mar, An. bellator with the coastal plain and An. marajoara with the deforested areas. Moreover, both An. marajoara and An. cruzii were positively associated with malaria cases. Considering that An. marajoara was demonstrated to be a primary vector of human Plasmodium in the rural areas of the state of Amapá, more attention should be given to the species in the deforested areas of the Atlantic Forest, where it might be a secondary vector.

Field optimisation of MosquiTRAP sampling for monitoring Aedes aegypti Linnaeus (Diptera: Culicidae)

A sticky trap designed to capture gravid Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti mosquitoes, MosquiTRAP, has been evaluated for monitoring this species in Brazil. However, the effects of trap densities on the capture rate of Ae. aegypti females and the sensitivity of vector detection are still unknown. After a preliminary study has identified areas of high and low female mosquito abundance, a set of experiments was conducted in four neighbourhoods of Belo Horizonte (state of Minas Gerais, Brazil) using densities of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 and 64 traps per block. Trap sensitivity (positive MosquiTRAP index) increased significantly when 1-8 MosquiTRAPs were installed per block in both high and low abundance areas. A strong fit was obtained for the total number of mosquitoes captured with increasing trap densities through a non-linear function (Box-Lucas) (r² = 0,994), which likely exhibits saturation towards an equilibrium level. The capacity of the Mean Female Aedes Index to distinguish between areas of high and low Ae. aegypti abundance was also investigated; the achieved differentiation was shown to be dependent on the MosquiTRAP density.

New structures for goat corrals to control peridomestic populations of Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) in the Gran Chaco of Argentina

Goat production is an important economic activity for rural communities in the Gran Chaco of Argentina. Goat corrals are important for the survival of peridomestic populations of Triatoma infestans. This study evaluated the impact of modifying the traditional structure of goat corrals on T. infestans populations and goat productivity in the region of Los Llanos (La Rioja). Thirty-nine experimental corrals were constructed and 57 traditional corrals were used as controls. We evaluated the infestations of the control and experimental corrals for five years following construction of the structures. The results showed that the new structures did not prevent the colonization, although it enhanced the detection of infestation at low densities of T. infestans. No significant difference was found in T. infestans population abundance between control and experimental corrals, probably because of the different detectability in the two types of structures, especially among the small nymphs. Although goat productivity average was higher in experimental than in control corrals, no significant difference was found because of high variability. The new structures can be used as a complement to promote the development of rural communities. Acceptability and adoption of the new corrals by the owners was high, as the enclosures offered better protection for the goats, increased growth of kids and facilitated herd handling.

Characterisation of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) larval habitats at ground level and temporal fluctuations of larval abundance in Córdoba, Argentina

The aims of this study were to characterise the ground-level larval habitats of the mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, to determine the relationships between habitat characteristics and larval abundance and to examine seasonal larval-stage variations in Córdoba city. Every two weeks for two years, 15 larval habitats (natural and artificial water bodies, including shallow wells, drains, retention ponds, canals and ditches) were visited and sampled for larval mosquitoes. Data regarding the water depth, temperature and pH, permanence, the presence of aquatic vegetation and the density of collected mosquito larvae were recorded. Data on the average air temperatures and accumulated precipitation during the 15 days prior to each sampling date were also obtained. Cx. quinquefasciatus larvae were collected throughout the study period and were generally most abundant in the summer season. Generalised linear mixed models indicated the average air temperature and presence of dicotyledonous aquatic vegetation as variables that served as important predictors of larval densities. Additionally, permanent breeding sites supported high larval densities. In Córdoba city and possibly in other highly populated cities at the same latitude with the same environmental conditions, control programs should focus on permanent larval habitats with aquatic vegetation during the early spring, when the Cx. quinquefasciatus population begins to increase.

Rhodnius barretti, a new species of Triatominae (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) from western Amazonia

Rhodnius barretti , a new triatomine species, is described based on adult specimens collected in rainforest environments within the Napo ecoregion of western Amazonia (Colombia and Ecuador). R. barretti resembles Rhodnius robustus s.l. , but mitochondrial cytochrome b gene sequences reveal that it is a strongly divergent member of the “robustus lineage”, i.e., basal to the clade encompassing Rhodnius nasutus , Rhodnius neglectus , Rhodnius prolixus and five members of the R. robustus species complex. Morphometric analyses also reveal consistent divergence from R. robustus s.l. , including head and, as previously shown, wing shape and the length ratios of some anatomical structures. R. barretti occurs, often at high densities, in Attalea butyracea and Oenocarpus bataua palms. It is strikingly aggressive and adults may invade houses flying from peridomestic palms. R. barretti must therefore be regarded as a potential Trypanosoma cruzi vector in the Napo ecoregion, where Chagas disease is endemic.

Structural and functional brain changes in middle-aged type 2 diabetic patients: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is an emerging risk factor for cognitive impairment. Whether this impairment is a direct effect of this metabolic disorder on brain function, a consequence of vascular disease, or both, remains unknown. Structural and functional neuroimaging studies in patients with T2DM could help to elucidate this question. OBJECTIVE We designed a cross-sectional study comparing 25 T2DM patients with 25 age- and gender-matched healthy control participants. Clinical information, APOE genotype, lipid and glucose analysis, structural cerebral magnetic resonance imaging including voxel-based morphometry, and F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography were obtained in all subjects. METHODS Gray matter densities and metabolic differences between groups were analyzed using statistical parametric mapping. In addition to comparing the neuroimaging profiles of both groups, we correlated neuroimaging findings with HbA1c levels, duration of T2DM, and insulin resistance measurement (HOMA-IR) in the diabetic patients group. Results: Patients with T2DM presented reduced gray matter densities and reduced cerebral glucose metabolism in several fronto-temporal brain regions after controlling for various vascular risk factors. Furthermore, within the T2DM group, longer disease duration, and higher HbA1c levels and HOMA-IR were associated with lower gray matter density and reduced cerebral glucose metabolism in fronto-temporal regions. CONCLUSION In agreement with previous reports, our findings indicate that T2DM leads to structural and metabolic abnormalities in fronto-temporal areas. Furthermore, they suggest that these abnormalities are not entirely explained by the role of T2DM as a cardiovascular risk factor.

Positive feedback in the transition from sexual reproduction to parthenogenesis.

Understanding how new phenotypes evolve is challenging because intermediate stages in transitions from ancestral to derived phenotypes often remain elusive. Here we describe and evaluate a new mechanism facilitating the transition from sexual reproduction to parthenogenesis. In many sexually reproducing species, a small proportion of unfertilized eggs can hatch spontaneously ('tychoparthenogenesis') and develop into females. Using an analytical model, we show that if females are mate-limited, tychoparthenogenesis can result in the loss of males through a positive feedback mechanism whereby tychoparthenogenesis generates female-biased sex ratios and increasing mate limitation. As a result, the strength of selection for tychoparthenogenesis increases in concert with the proportion of tychoparthenogenetic offspring in the sexual population. We then tested the hypothesis that mate limitation selects for tychoparthenogenesis and generates female-biased sex ratios, using data from natural populations of sexually reproducing Timema stick insects. Across 41 populations, both the tychoparthenogenesis rates and the proportions of females increased exponentially as the density of individuals decreased, consistent with the idea that low densities of individuals result in mate limitation and selection for reproductive insurance through tychoparthenogenesis. Our model and data from Timema populations provide evidence for a simple mechanism through which parthenogenesis can evolve rapidly in a sexual population.

New scenarios of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in the Orinoco region of Colombia

Rhodnius prolixus, a blood-sucking triatomine with domiciliary anthropophilic habits, is the main vector of Chagas disease. The current paradigm of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in Columbia includes a sylvatic and domiciliary cycle co-existing with domestic and sylvatic populations of reservoirs. The aim of this study is to evaluate the population densities and relative abundance of triatomines and mammals that may be involved in the sylvatic cycle of Chagas disease to clarify the epidemiological scenario in an endemic area in the province of Casanare. Insect vectors on Attalea butyracea palms were captured using both manual searches and bait traps. The capture of mammals was performed using Sherman and Tomahawk traps. We report an infestation index of 88.5% in 148 palms and an index of T. cruzi natural infection of 60.2% in 269 dissected insects and 11.9% in 160 captured mammals. High population densities of triatomines were observed in the sylvatic environment and there was a high relative abundance of reservoirs in the area, suggesting a stable enzootic cycle. We found no evidence of insect domiciliation. Taken together, these observations suggest that eco-epidemiological factors shape the transmission dynamics of T. cruzi, creating diverse scenarios of disease transmission.

Algorisme d'optimització global de les mesures de semblança quàntica molecular

Les Mesures de Semblança Quàntica Molecular (MSQM) requereixen la maximització del solapament de les densitats electròniques de les molècules que es comparen. En aquest treball es presenta un algorisme de maximització de les MSQM, que és global en el límit de densitatselectròniques deformades a funcions deltes de Dirac. A partir d'aquest algorisme se'n deriva l'equivalent per a densitats no deformades