Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Generic Finite Element Model for Mechanically Consistent Scaling of Composite Beam-to-column Joint with Welded Connection

To study the behaviour of beam-to-column composite connection more sophisticated finite element models is required, since component model has some severe limitations. In this research a generic finite element model for composite beam-to-column joint with welded connections is developed using current state of the art local modelling. Applying mechanically consistent scaling method, it can provide the constitutive relationship for a plane rectangular macro element with beam-type boundaries. Then, this defined macro element, which preserves local behaviour and allows for the transfer of five independent states between local and global models, can be implemented in high-accuracy frame analysis with the possibility of limit state checks. In order that macro element for scaling method can be used in practical manner, a generic geometry program as a new idea proposed in this study is also developed for this finite element model. With generic programming a set of global geometric variables can be input to generate a specific instance of the connection without much effort. The proposed finite element model generated by this generic programming is validated against testing results from University of Kaiserslautern. Finally, two illustrative examples for applying this macro element approach are presented. In the first example how to obtain the constitutive relationships of macro element is demonstrated. With certain assumptions for typical composite frame the constitutive relationships can be represented by bilinear laws for the macro bending and shear states that are then coupled by a two-dimensional surface law with yield and failure surfaces. In second example a scaling concept that combines sophisticated local models with a frame analysis using a macro element approach is presented as a practical application of this numerical model.

Metallische Nanopartikel auf Quarz

This work presents the developement of an chemically stable and easy to produce in situ sensor for fast and reliable detection of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in low nanomolar concentrations. Metallic nanoparticles on dielectric substrates werde used for the rst time with surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) in combination with shifted excitation Raman difference spectroscopy (SERDS). The preparation of the metallic nanoparticle ensembles with Volmer-Webergrowth is described first. The nanoparticles are characterized with both, optical spectroscopy and atomic force microscopy. The morphological properties of the nanoparticle ensembles are de ned by the mean axial ratio (a/b) and the mean equivalent radius (R Äq), respectively. The prepared and characterized nanoparticles were then used for intensive Raman spectroscopy measurements. Two sophisticated diode laser systems were used in cooperation with the TU Berlin, to carry out these experiments. The first step was to establish the ideal combination of excitation wavelength of the diode laser and the maximum of the surface plasmon resonance of the nanoparticle ensembles. From these results it was deduced, that for an optimum Raman signal the plasmon resonance maximum of the nanoparticle ensemble has to be red-shifted a few nanometeres in respect to the excitation wavelength. Different PAHs werde detected in concentrations of only 2 and 0.5 nmol/, respectively. Furthermore, the obtained results show an excellent reproducability. In addition the time dependence of the Raman signal intensity was investigated. The results of these measurements show, that only 2 minutes after placing the substrates in the molecular solution, a detectable Raman signal was generated. The maximum Raman signal, i.e. the time in which the molecular adsorption process is finished, was determined to about 10 minutes. In summary it was shown, that the used metallic nanoparticle ensembles are highly usable as substrates for SERS in combination with SERDS to detect PAHs in low nanomolar concentrations.

Dynamic Injection of Scribble Features into Graphical Diagram Editors

Almost everyone sketches. People use sketches day in and day out in many different and heterogeneous fields, to share their thoughts and clarify ambiguous interpretations, for example. The media used to sketch varies from analog tools like flipcharts to digital tools like smartboards. Whereas analog tools are usually affected by insufficient editing capabilities like cut/copy/paste, digital tools greatly support these scenarios. Digital tools can be grouped into informal and formal tools. Informal tools can be understood as simple drawing environments, whereas formal tools offer sophisticated support to create, optimize and validate diagrams of a certain application domain. Most digital formal tools force users to stick to a concrete syntax and editing workflow, limiting the user’s creativity. For that reason, a lot of people first sketch their ideas using the flexibility of analog or digital informal tools. Subsequently, the sketch is "portrayed" in an appropriate digital formal tool. This work presents Scribble, a highly configurable and extensible sketching framework which allows to dynamically inject sketching features into existing graphical diagram editors, based on Eclipse GEF. This allows to combine the flexibility of informal tools with the power of formal tools without any effort. No additional code is required to augment a GEF editor with sophisticated sketching features. Scribble recognizes drawn elements as well as handwritten text and automatically generates the corresponding domain elements. A local training data library is created dynamically by incrementally learning shapes, drawn by the user. Training data can be shared with others using the WebScribble web application which has been created as part of this work.

Demokratie und Dekolonisierung in Bolivien

Ausgehend von den fortdauernden Ausschlüssen und strukturellen Benachteiligungen der indigenen Bevölkerung Lateinamerikas kritisiert die vorliegende Arbeit die begrenzten Möglichkeiten gesellschaftlicher Teilhabe innerhalb von liberalen Wahldemokratien. Neben materiellen Ungleichheiten stehen immaterielle Formen der Ungleichheit, wie kulturelle und symbolische Barrieren politischer sowie sozialer Teilhabe im Fokus der Analyse. Das Forschungs- und Erkenntnisinteresse zielt darauf, Demokratie nicht länger nur anhand liberal-repräsentativer Normen und Verfahren zu erfassen und zu werten. Es geht um die Reflexion anderer demokratischer Praxen, wie indigener und indigen-gewerkschaftlicher Formen lokaler Selbstregierung in Bolivien. Denn im bolivianischen Transformationsprozess mündete die Kritik der liberal-repräsentativen Demokratie in einer doppelten Forderung: Zum einen wird die Demokratisierung der liberalen Demokratie und zum anderen ihre Dekolonisierung gefordert. Die Dekolonisierung und Institutionalisierung unterschiedlicher Praxen und Vorstellungen wird empirisch am Beispiel des indigenen Autonomieprozesses untersucht. Auf nationaler Ebene werden die Demokratisierungsfortschritte u. a. anhand von Wahlrecht, der Entwicklung der Partizipation und Repräsentation bilanziert und die materielle Dimension von Teilhabe auf Grundlage der sozial- und wirtschaftspolitischen Reformen der Regierung Morales geprüft.

Bestimmung der magnetischen Streufeldstärke von künstlichen magnetischen Domänen austauschverschobener Dünnschichtsysteme und deren Einfluss auf die Selbstassemblierung organischer Moleküle

Die lokale Anlagerung molekularer Substanzen auf Oberflächen ist technologisch von großem Interesse. Die Beeinflussung selbstassemblierender Materialien bietet dabei große Vorteile, da sie kostengünstig und großflächig angewendet werden kann. Untersuchungen einer solchen Beeinflussung mithilfe von magnetischen Feldern wurden bisher jedoch noch nicht durchgeführt. Ursache hierfür ist das, insbesondere bei der Verwendung von diamagnetischen Substanzen, geringe induzierte magnetische Moment und die daraus resultierenden geringen magnetischen Kräfte. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde untersucht, ob es möglich ist, die lokale Anlagerung von selbstassemblierenden, diamagnetischen Substanzen durch die Verwendung von magnetischen Streufeldern zu beeinflussen und somit ein Schichtwachstum bevorzugt in gewünschten Bereichen eines Substrats zu erreichen. Es wurde ein austauschverschobenes Dünnschichtsystem über das Verfahren der ionenbeschuss-induzierten magnetischen Strukturierung mit einem künstlichen Domänenmuster in streifenförmiger Anordnung im Mikrometermaßstab erzeugt. Über experimentelle Untersuchungen wurden die aus diesem Schichtsystem austretenden magnetischen Streufelder erstmals quantifiziert. Die experimentell unvermeidbaren Mittelungen und technischen Limitierungen wurden mithilfe eines theoretischen Modells herausgerechnet, sodass letztlich die resultierende Magnetfeldlandschaft in allen drei Dimensionen über der Probenoberfläche erhalten wurde. Durch die Bestimmung der magnetischen Suszeptibilitäten der hier verwendeten thioethersubstituierten Subphthalocyanin-Derivate konnte somit die Berechnung der induzierten magnetischen Kräfte erfolgen, deren Vergleich mit Literaturwerten eine erfolgreiche Beeinflussung der Anlagerung dieser Substanzen erhoffen ließ. Aufgrund der Kombination diverser, anspruchsvoller Nachweisverfahren konnte der experimentelle Beweis für die erfolgreiche Positionierung der molekularen Substanzen durch die magnetischen Streufelder des Dünnschichtsystems erbracht werden. Zunächst wurde nachgewiesen, dass sich die Subphthalocyanin-Derivate auf der Probenoberfläche befinden und in einer mit der Periode der magnetischen Domänenstruktur korrelierenden Geometrie anlagern. Über Untersuchungen an Synchrotronstrahlungsquellen konnte die magnetische Streifenstruktur mit der Struktur der angelagerten Moleküle überlagert werden, sodass bekannt wurde, dass sich die Moleküle bevorzugt in den magnetisch begünstigten Bereichen anlagern. Um mögliche Einflüsse einer eventuell durch den magnetischen Strukturierungsprozess lokal modifizierten Substratoberfläche als Ursache für die lokale Molekülanlagerung ausschließen zu können, wurden zusätzliche Referenzmessungen durchgeführt. Alle Untersuchungen zeigen, dass die Molekülpositionierung auf der Wechselwirkung der diamagnetischen Substanzen mit den Streufeldern des Substrats zurückzuführen ist. Der im Rahmen dieser Arbeit entwickelte Mechanismus der magnetischen Beeinflussung der lokalen Molekülanlagerung besagt dabei, dass insbesondere die Oberflächendiffusion der selbstassemblierenden Substanz durch die in-plane-Magnetfeldkomponente beeinflusst wird und vermutlich die Nukleationsphase der Selbstassemblierung entscheidend für die lokale Materialabscheidung ist. Es konnte in dieser Arbeit somit gezeigt werden, dass eine Beeinflussung der Selbstassemblierung von diamagnetischen Subphthalocyanin-Derivaten und somit eine lokal bevorzugte Anlagerung dieser Substanzen durch magnetische Streufelder von magnetisch strukturierten austauschverschobenen Dünnschichtsystemen erreicht werden kann. Es resultiert somit eine neue Möglichkeit die technologisch wichtigen Selbstassemblierungsprozesse nun auch über magnetische Streufelder beeinflussen und kontrollieren zu können. Durch die hohe Flexibilität bei den Strukturierungsmöglichkeiten der magnetischen Domänengeometrien der hier verwendeten austauschverschobenen Dünnschichtsysteme resultieren aus den hier gezeigten Ergebnissen vielfältige Anwendungsmöglichkeiten im Bereich der Beschichtungstechnik.

Role of Low-level Mechanisms in Brightness Perception

Brightness judgments are a key part of the primate brain's visual analysis of the environment. There is general consensus that the perceived brightness of an image region is based not only on its actual luminance, but also on the photometric structure of its neighborhood. However, it is unclear precisely how a region's context influences its perceived brightness. Recent research has suggested that brightness estimation may be based on a sophisticated analysis of scene layout in terms of transparency, illumination and shadows. This work has called into question the role of low-level mechanisms, such as lateral inhibition, as explanations for brightness phenomena. Here we describe experiments with displays for which low-level and high-level analyses make qualitatively different predictions, and with which we can quantitatively assess the trade-offs between low-level and high-level factors. We find that brightness percepts in these displays are governed by low-level stimulus properties, even when these percepts are inconsistent with higher-level interpretations of scene layout. These results point to the important role of low-level mechanisms in determining brightness percepts.

Multiclass Classification of SRBCTs

A novel approach to multiclass tumor classification using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was introduced in a recent paper cite{Khan2001}. The method successfully classified and diagnosed small, round blue cell tumors (SRBCTs) of childhood into four distinct categories, neuroblastoma (NB), rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and the Ewing family of tumors (EWS), using cDNA gene expression profiles of samples that included both tumor biopsy material and cell lines. We report that using an approach similar to the one reported by Yeang et al cite{Yeang2001}, i.e. multiclass classification by combining outputs of binary classifiers, we achieved equal accuracy with much fewer features. We report the performances of 3 binary classifiers (k-nearest neighbors (kNN), weighted-voting (WV), and support vector machines (SVM)) with 3 feature selection techniques (Golub's Signal to Noise (SN) ratios cite{Golub99}, Fisher scores (FSc) and Mukherjee's SVM feature selection (SVMFS))cite{Sayan98}.

On-the-Fly Maintenance of Series-Parallel Relationships in Fork-Join Multithreaded Programs

A key capability of data-race detectors is to determine whether one thread executes logically in parallel with another or whether the threads must operate in series. This paper provides two algorithms, one serial and one parallel, to maintain series-parallel (SP) relationships "on the fly" for fork-join multithreaded programs. The serial SP-order algorithm runs in O(1) amortized time per operation. In contrast, the previously best algorithm requires a time per operation that is proportional to Tarjan’s functional inverse of Ackermann’s function. SP-order employs an order-maintenance data structure that allows us to implement a more efficient "English-Hebrew" labeling scheme than was used in earlier race detectors, which immediately yields an improved determinacy-race detector. In particular, any fork-join program running in T₁ time on a single processor can be checked on the fly for determinacy races in O(T₁) time. Corresponding improved bounds can also be obtained for more sophisticated data-race detectors, for example, those that use locks. By combining SP-order with Feng and Leiserson’s serial SP-bags algorithm, we obtain a parallel SP-maintenance algorithm, called SP-hybrid. Suppose that a fork-join program has n threads, T₁ work, and a critical-path length of T[subscript ∞]. When executed on P processors, we prove that SP-hybrid runs in O((T₁/P + PT[subscript ∞]) lg n) expected time. To understand this bound, consider that the original program obtains linear speed-up over a 1-processor execution when P = O(T₁/T[subscript ∞]). In contrast, SP-hybrid obtains linear speed-up when P = O(√T₁/T[subscript ∞]), but the work is increased by a factor of O(lg n).

A tale of two logits, compositional data analysis and zero observations

The application of compositional data analysis through log ratio trans- formations corresponds to a multinomial logit model for the shares themselves. This model is characterized by the property of Independence of Irrelevant Alter- natives (IIA). IIA states that the odds ratio in this case the ratio of shares is invariant to the addition or deletion of outcomes to the problem. It is exactly this invariance of the ratio that underlies the commonly used zero replacement procedure in compositional data analysis. In this paper we investigate using the nested logit model that does not embody IIA and an associated zero replacement procedure and compare its performance with that of the more usual approach of using the multinomial logit model. Our comparisons exploit a data set that com- bines voting data by electoral division with corresponding census data for each division for the 2001 Federal election in Australia

El Acto Legislativo 01 de 2003. ¿Herramienta fallida para el fortalecimiento de los Partidos Políticos en Colombia?. Caso de estudio : Partido Social de Unidad Nacional - Partido de La U

La excesiva proliferación de partidos políticos y listas a las corporaciones públicas, permitidas por la debilidad normativa de la Constitución de 1991 y la suspicacia de los políticos colombianos, hizo necesaria una reforma política en el año 2003. Esta reforma, manifestada en el Acto Legislativo 01 de 2003, modificó el sistema electoral colombiano; los cambios más visibles modificaron la forma de conversión de votos en escaños, la forma de candidatura y modalidad del voto, y la creación una barrera legal. Estas modificaciones llevaron a la reagrupación de los partidos políticos, pero no necesariamente a su fortalecimiento, ya que no establece las herramientas necesarias para la transparencia y la democratización interna de los partidos, que conllevarían a su real institucionalización. El Partido Social de Unidad Nacional , partido de La U-, es creado después de la implementación de la reforma y consigue la mayor votación nacional en sus primeras elecciones. Pero, ¿lo convierte ese resultado electoral en un partido fuerte?.

A Multiagent System for Coordinating Ambulances for Emergency Medical Services

To coordinate ambulances for emergency medical services, a multiagent system uses an auction mechanism based on trust. Results of tests using real data show that this system can efficiently assign ambulances to patients, thereby reducing transportation time. Emergency transportation on specialized vehicles is needed when a person's health is in risk of irreparable damage. A patient can't benefit from sophisticated medical treatments and technologies if she or he isn't placed in a proper healthcare center with the appropriate medical team. For example, strokes are neurological emergencies involving a limited amount of time in which treatment measures are effective

Using zappers in Common Learning Spaces (Windows XP)

This resource is now obsolete and has been replaced by http://www.edshare.soton.ac.uk/5920/ This PowerPoint is an animated step-by-step guide that shows tutors how to use zappers in a teaching session. It covers starting the PC, distributing the zappers, plugging in the receiver, starting the software, running the presentation and managing voting, saving data at the end and collecting the handsets. It takes around 5 minutes to view.

Voto preferente: como instrumento electoral para la constitución del personalismo político en Colombia, en las elecciones del Senado 2006.

Para Colombia, la reforma política de 2003 marcó una transformación en el sistema político y electoral debido a que proponía reinstitucionalizar los movimientos y los partidos políticos del país, a la vez que planteaba transformaciones importantes al sistema electoral. La hipótesis plantea el hecho de que el voto preferente es la herramienta ideal para mantener los personalismos políticos por parte de aquellos candidatos beneficiados con la reforma. Como justificación se plantea que en Colombia y en los países con sistemas de partidos institucionalizados, un proceso de reforma política se circunscribe a modificaciones o ajustes de alguna norma o ley que se encuentre vigente en el marco jurídico o la Constitución Política actual de un Estado determinado. Cuando estos procesos se llevan a cabo, la intención es, por un lado, suprimir normas que afectan de manera adversa el desarrollo de ciertos sectores específicos, o por el otro, modificar procedimientos de orden institucional que terminan perjudicando, en el caso de nuestro país, el ejercicio democrático en términos de una idónea representación dentro de los cargos legislativos de la nación. Puede decirse entonces que esta monografía logra analizar las distintas situaciones políticas y sociales que enmarcan la reforma política de 2003 y de manera particular se logra comprender todas las implicaciones políticas que tiene el voto preferente como medio para estructurar las estrategias electorales de los sistemas de partidos en Colombia.

Análisis del voto obligatorio en Chile como referencia para una eventual aplicación en Colombia

La siguiente monografía es un análisis del voto obligatorio en Chile como referencia para una eventual aplicación en Colombia. A través de ella se busca identificar las características esenciales – recomendaciones- para la implementación de un voto obligatorio en Colombia que contribuya al fortalecimiento del sistema electoral colombiano a partir de un aumento de la participación política electoral colombiana (sin que con ello se pretenda desconocer otros mecanismos de participación política ni mucho menos reducirla al ejercicio del voto), tomando como punto de referencia el análisis de la implementación del voto obligatorio en Chile.