Modelled and observed changes in aerosols and surface solar radiation over Europe between 1960 and 2009

Substantial changes in anthropogenic aerosols and precursor gas emissions have occurred over recent decades due to the implementation of air pollution control legislation and economic growth. The response of atmospheric aerosols to these changes and the impact on climate are poorly constrained, particularly in studies using detailed aerosol chemistry–climate models. Here we compare the HadGEM3-UKCA (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model-United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols) coupled chemistry–climate model for the period 1960–2009 against extensive ground-based observations of sulfate aerosol mass (1978–2009), total suspended particle matter (SPM, 1978–1998), PM10 (1997–2009), aerosol optical depth (AOD, 2000–2009), aerosol size distributions (2008–2009) and surface solar radiation (SSR, 1960–2009) over Europe. The model underestimates observed sulfate aerosol mass (normalised mean bias factor (NMBF) = −0.4), SPM (NMBF = −0.9), PM10 (NMBF = −0.2), aerosol number concentrations (N30 NMBF = −0.85; N50 NMBF = −0.65; and N100 NMBF = −0.96) and AOD (NMBF = −0.01) but slightly overpredicts SSR (NMBF = 0.02). Trends in aerosol over the observational period are well simulated by the model, with observed (simulated) changes in sulfate of −68 % (−78 %), SPM of −42 % (−20 %), PM10 of −9 % (−8 %) and AOD of −11 % (−14 %). Discrepancies in the magnitude of simulated aerosol mass do not affect the ability of the model to reproduce the observed SSR trends. The positive change in observed European SSR (5 %) during 1990–2009 ("brightening") is better reproduced by the model when aerosol radiative effects (ARE) are included (3 %), compared to simulations where ARE are excluded (0.2 %). The simulated top-of-the-atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing over Europe under all-sky conditions increased by > 3.0 W m−2 during the period 1970–2009 in response to changes in anthropogenic emissions and aerosol concentrations.

Analisi dinamica del ciclo integrato dell'acciaio: un approccio basato sulla simulazione

Nella presente tesi viene analizzato in modo approfondito il ciclo integrato dell'acciaio che è uno dei metodi più consolidati e affermati per la produzione sia di semilavorati, sia di prodotti finiti di acciaio. L'approccio all'analisi del ciclo integrato dell'acciaio è di tipo dinamico e basato sulla simulazione, vale a dire che si cerca di capire come e in che modo i vari fattori del ciclo integrato interagiscono e si influenzano fra di loro per cercare in seguto di esplicitare tali dinamiche in un unico modello di simulazione. Sino ad ora infatti nella letteratura si possono trovare modelli che analizzano separatamente solo alcuni aspetti del ciclo integrato dell'acciaio. L'intenzione ultima di questa tesi è quella di fornire uno strumento in più che possa far capire, date determinate caratteristiche e obiettivi dell'azienda, quale sia la direzione più plausibile e giustificabile da seguire.

Analisi del moto di particelle in sospensione mediante simulazioni di fluidodinamica computazionale

La mobilitazione di polveri radioattive nel caso di un incidente di perdita di vuoto (LOVA) all’interno di ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor), è uno dei problemi di sicurezza che si sono posti durante la costruzione di tale reattore. Le polveri vengono generate dalla continua erosione da parte del plasma del materiale di contenimento. Ciò porta ad un accumulo delle stesse all’interno della camera di vuoto. Nel caso di un incidente LOVA il rilascio di tali polveri in atmosfera rappresenta un rischio per la salute di lavoratori e della popolazione circostante. Per raccogliere dati su tale tipo di incidente è stata costruita presso il laboratorio dell’università di Tor Vergata una piccola facility, STARDUST, in cui sono stati eseguiti vari esperimenti con delle condizioni iniziali simili a quelle presenti all’interno di ITER. Uno di questi esperimenti in particolare simula la rottura della camera di vuoto mediante l’ingresso di aria in STARDUST, inizialmente posto a 100 Pa, con un rateo di pressurizzazione di 300 Pa s−1. All’interno del serbatoio sono presenti delle polveri che, in differente percentuale, vengono portate in sospensione dal flusso di fluido entrante. In particolare le polveri sono composte da tungsteno (W), acciaio inossidabile (SS – 316 ) e carbonio ( C ). Scopo del presente lavoro è quello di riprodurre il campo di velocità che si genera all’interno di STARDUST nel caso dell’esperimento appena descritto e valutare il moto delle particelle portate in sospensione e la loro successiva deposizione. Ciò viene fatto mediante l’utilizzo di una geometria bidimensionale creata con Salome. Su tale geometria sono costruite differenti mesh strutturate in base al tipo di simulazione che si vuole implementare. Quest’ultima viene poi esportata nel solutore utilizzato, Code_Saturne. Le simulazioni eseguite possono essere suddivise in tre categorie principali. Nella prima (Mesh A) si è cercato di riprodurre i risultati numerici presentati dagli autori della parte sperimentale, che hanno utilizzato il software commerciale Fluent. Nella seconda si è riprodotto il campo di velocità interno a STARUDST sulla base dei dati sperimentali in possesso. Infine nell’ultima parte delle simulazioni si è riprodotto il moto delle particelle sospese all’interno del fluido in STARDUST, valutandone la deposizione. Il moto del fluido pressurizzante è stato considerato come compressibile. Il regime di moto è stato considerato turbolento viste le elevate velocità che provocavano elevati valori del numero di Reynolds per l’aria. I modelli con cui si è trattata la turbolenza sono stati di tre tipi. Il campo di velocità ottenuto è stato leggermente differente nei tre casi e si è proceduto ad un confronto per valutare le cause che hanno portato a tali differenze. Il moto delle particelle è stato trattato mediante l’utilizzo del modello di tracciamento lagrangiano delle particelle implementato in Code_Saturne. Differenti simulazioni sono state eseguite per tenere in considerazione i vari modelli di turbolenza adottati. Si è dunque proceduto ad analizzare similitudini e differenze dei risultati ottenuti.

Analisi tramite simulazione fem del processo di stampaggio ad iniezione di un componente automotive in polimero termoplastico

Nel presente elaborato vengono esposti in maniera esaustiva il processo di stampaggio ad iniezione dei polimeri termoplastici, la simulazione del processo mediante il codice fem fino ad arrivare alla simulazione con il software Autodesk® Simulation Moldflow® di un componente automotive. In particolare viene analizzato tramite simulazione fem il processo di stampaggio ad iniezione dell’asta di spinta del comando frizione in PA66 GF50 evidenziando la previsione dell’orientazione delle fibre di rinforzo.

Ethnic Politics, Regime Support and Conflict in Central and Eastern Europe

Ethnicity and ethnic parties have often been portrayed as a threat to political stability. There is also no shortage of conflicts with an ethnic flavor. Yet, this book challenges the notion that the organization of politics in heterogeneous societies should necessarily overcome ethnicity. Rather, descriptive representation of ethnic groups arguably has potential to increase regime support and reduce conflict. The book studies partisan-descriptive representation of up to 130 ethnic groups in central and eastern European democracies. Ethnic minority parties are found to only run and succeed if they can expect electoral support sufficient to pass the electoral threshold. Conditional on gender and strategies of representation, ethnic representation increases satisfaction with democracy among the minority population. While protest rises given moderate levels of representation, it is reduced once ethnic groups have access to executives. In conclusion, a proportional vision of power-sharing between ethnic groups receives some qualified empirical support.

Simulazione Monte Carlo applicata all'analisi di scenari di intrusione salina in acquiferi costieri

Il presente elaborato analizza il problema dell'intrusione salina e valuta l'influenza dei parametri idrologici e idrogeologici sulle dinamiche del processo mediate simulazioni Monte Carlo. A scopo esemplificativo, l’intrusione salina viene studiata in condizioni stazionarie e nell’ipotesi di interfaccia netta. La tecnica di simulazione viene descritta a partire dai concetti statistici di base che includono la definizione delle distribuzioni di probabilità scelte per descrviere il comportamento dei parametri del modello concettuale e la procedura di campionamento di tali distribuzioni. Un codice in Matlab è stato realizzato per l’applicazione ad un semplice caso studio.

Creation of temporary ponds for amphibians in northern and central Europe

More than 4000 ponds have been created or restored in Denmark since 1985 as part of a large-scale pond-digging programme to protect endangered amphibians in particular and pond flora and fauna in general. Most ponds are created on private land with public financing. The programme was triggered by, among other factors, a drastic decline in amphibian populations in Denmark between 1940 and 1980. However, in recent years there has been an increased awareness in Denmark that temporary ponds are important for the conservation of some of the most rare amphibian species, such as fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, natterjack toad Bufo calamita and green toad Bufo viridis. Other rare species such as moor frog Rana arvalis and European tree frog Hyla arborea also benefit from temporary ponds. The last 15 years of work on the conservation of endangered species and their habitats has resulted in a last-minute rescue and a subsequent growth in the size of most Danish populations of fire-bellied toad and green toad; some populations of the relatively more common natterjack toad have also increased. The creation of temporary ponds plays an important role in the success of these three species. The creation of ponds to help restore viable populations of the most rare amphibians has not been easy. To study the conditions that may need to be created, Danish herpetologists searched for areas with temporary ponds that had good water quality, natural hydrological conditions and a management regime influenced by traditional agricultural methods. The paper gives an overview of pond creation and restoration projects in Denmark and Poland and their significance for amphibian diversity.

Silicon thin films prepared in the transition region and their use in solar cells

Diphasic silicon films (nc-Si/a-Si:H) have been prepared by a new regime of plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition in the region adjacent of phase transition from amorphous to microcrystalline state. Comparing to the conventional amorphous silicon (a-Si:H), the nc-Si/a-Si:H has higher photoconductivity (sigma(ph)), better stability, and a broader light spectral response range in the longer wavelength range. It can be found from Raman spectra that there is a notable improvement in the medium range order. The blue shift for the stretching mode and red shift for the wagging mode in the IR spectra also show the variation of the microstructure. By using this kind of film as intrinsic layer, a p-i-n junction solar cell was prepared with the initial efficiency of 8.51 % and a stabilized efficiency of 8.01% (AM 1.5, 100 mw/cm(2)) at room temperature. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Silicon thin films prepared in the transition region and their use in solar cells

Diphasic silicon films (nc-Si/a-Si:H) have been prepared by a new regime of plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition in the region adjacent of phase transition from amorphous to microcrystalline state. Comparing to the conventional amorphous silicon (a-Si:H), the nc-Si/a-Si:H has higher photoconductivity (sigma(ph)), better stability, and a broader light spectral response range in the longer wavelength range. It can be found from Raman spectra that there is a notable improvement in the medium range order. The blue shift for the stretching mode and red shift for the wagging mode in the IR spectra also show the variation of the microstructure. By using this kind of film as intrinsic layer, a p-i-n junction solar cell was prepared with the initial efficiency of 8.51 % and a stabilized efficiency of 8.01% (AM 1.5, 100 mw/cm(2)) at room temperature. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

A regime shift in the North Sea circa 1988 linked to changes in the North Sea horse mackerel fishery

After 1987, Phytoplankton Colour (a visual estimate of chlorophyll) measured on samples taken by the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) in the North Sea increased substantially, both in level and seasonal extent, compared to earlier years since 1946. Many species of phytoplankton and zooplankton showed marked changes in abundance at about the same time. These events coincided with a large increase in catches of the western stock of the horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus L.) in the northern North Sea reflecting a northerly expansion of the stock along the shelf edge from the Bay of Biscay to the North Sea after 1987. Using a 3D hydrodynamic model, with input from measured wind parameters, monthly transport of oceanic water into the North Sea has been calculated for the period 1976–1994, integrated for a section from Orkney to Shetland to Norway. A substantial increase in oceanic inflow occurred in the winter months, December to March, from 1988. Higher sea surface temperatures were also measured after 1987 especially in spring and summer months. These biological and physical events may be a response to observed changes in pressure distribution over the North Atlantic. From 1988 onwards, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores, increased to the highest positive level observed in this century. Positive NAO anomalies are associated with stronger and more southerly tracks of the westerly winds and higher temperatures in western Europe. These changing wind distributions may have led to an increase in the northerly advection of water along the western edge of the European shelf and may have assisted the migration of the horse mackerel. This study is possibly a unique demonstration of a correlation between three different trophic levels of a marine ecosystem and hydrographic and atmospheric events at decadal and regional scales. The results emphasise the importance of maintaining into the future long term programmes such as the CPR.

Changes in solar activity and Holocene climatic shifts derived from C-14 wiggle-match dated peat deposits

Closely spaced sequences of accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) C-14 dates of peat deposits display century-scale wiggles which can be fitted to the radiocarbon calibration curve. By wiggle-matching such sequences, high-precision calendar age chronologies can be generated which show that changes in mire surface wetness during the Bronze Age/Iron Age transition (c. 850 cal. BC) and the 'Little Ice Age' (Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton Minima) occurred during periods of suddenly increasing atmospheric concentration of C-14. Replicate evidence from peat-based proxy climate indicators in northwest Europe suggest these changes in climate may have been driven by temporary declines of solar activity. Carbon-accumulation rates of two raised peat bogs in the UK and Denmark record low values during the 'Little Ice Age' which reflects reduced primary productivity of the peat-forming vegetation during these periods of climatic deterioration.

Neolithic farming in north-western Europe: archaeobotanical evidence from Ireland

This paper presents significant new insights into the appearance of agriculture at the north- western edge of Europe, focusing on Neolithic Ireland (4000-2500 cal BC). Previous studies were based upon a limited plant macro-remains dataset, as much of the Irish evidence is unpublished. A research project, 'Cultivating Societies', was implemented to examine the nature, timing and extent of agricultural activity in Neolithic Ireland through collation and analysis of different strands of published and unpublished archaeological and environmental evidence, with a particular focus on plant macro- remains, pollen, settlement and 14C data. Plant macro-remains from a total of 52 excavated sites were collated and analysed, representing the most comprehensive study to date of Neolithic plant remains from this region. Cereals were present at many locations and site types, sometimes in large quantities and most often at sites dating to the earlier Neolithic (3750-3600 cal BC). Emmer wheat was the dominant crop, at least at this time. Other crops included naked and hulled barley, naked wheat, einkorn wheat and flax. Analysis of arable weeds indicates that early plots were not managed under a shifting cultivation regime, which has important implications for understanding Neolithic settlement practices and how communities engaged with landscapes. The variety of crops cultivated in Neolithic Ireland is similar to those in Britain, reflecting a decreasing diversity in crop types as agriculture spread from south-east to north-west Europe.