Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Background: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called ""Vale do Amanhecer"" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods: In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3) and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results: Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases) were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km(2)). Training forest occupied 27.34 km(2) and midsize vegetation 7.01 km(2). Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78%) and malaria cases (44.94%) were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions: Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.

The Last Missionary to Leave the Temple Should Turn Off the Light Sociological Remarks on the Decline of Japanese ""Immigrant"" Buddhism in Brazil

Empirical data indicate that the so-called ""Buddhism of yellow color"" that is predominantly associated with Japanese ""immigrant"" Buddhism, is constantly in decline in terms of ""explicit"" adherents. After some methodological observations, this article gives an overview of the relevant statistical data. The last part discusses possible reasons for these negative dynamics, referring to causes within Buddhist institutions, the ethnic community, and at the level of the individual.

The effectiveness of educational practice in diabetic foot: a view from Brazil

Background: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prevention and self-inspection behavior of diabetic subjects with foot at ulcer risk, no previous episode, who participated in the routine visits and standardized education provided by the service and who received prescribed footwear. This evaluation was carried out using a questionnaire scoring from 0-10 (high scores reflect worse practice compliance). Results: 60 patients were studied (30 of each sex); mean age was 62 years, mean duration of the disease was 17 years. As for compliance, 90% showed a total score <= 5, only 8.7% regularly wore the footwear supplied; self foot inspection 65%, 28,3% with additional familiar inspection; creaming 77%; proper washing and drying 88%; proper cutting of toe nails 83%; no cuticle cutting 83%; routine shoe inspection 77%; no use of pumice stones or similar abrasive 70%; no barefoot walking 95%. Conclusion: the planned and multidisciplinary educational approach enabled high compliance of the ulcer prevention care needed in diabetic patients at risk for complications. In contrast, compliance observed for the use of footwear provided was extremely low, demonstrating that the issue of its acceptability should be further and carefully addressed. In countries of such vast dimensions as Brazil multidisciplinary educational approaches can and should be performed by the services providing care for patients with foot at risk for complications according to the reality of local scenarios. Furthermore, every educational program should assess the learning, results obtained and efficacy in the target population by use of an adequate evaluation system.

Estimating cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes: a national multicenter study in Brazil

According to Brazilian National Data Survey diabetes is the fifth cause for hospitalization and is one of the ten major causes of mortality in this country. Aims to stratify the estimated cardiovascular risk (eCVR) in a population of type 2 diabetics (T2DM) according to the Framingham prediction equations as well as to determine the association between eCVR with metabolic and clinical control of the disease. Methods From 2000 to 2001 a cross-sectional multicenter study was conducted in 13 public out-patients diabetes/endocrinology clinics from 8 Brazilian cities. The 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) was estimated by the prediction equations described by Wilson et al (Circulation 1998). LDL equations were preferably used; when patients missed LDL data we used total cholesterol equations instead. Results Data from 1382 patients (59.0% female) were analyzed. Median and inter-quartile range (IQ) of age and duration of diabetes were 57.4 (51-65) and 8.8 (3-13) years, respectively without differences according to the gender. Forty-two percent of these patients were overweight and 35.4% were obese (the prevalence of higher BMI and obesity in this T2DM group was significantly higher in women than in men; p < 0.001). The overall estimated eCVR in T2DM patients was 21.4 (13.5-31.3). The eCVR was high (> 20%) in 738 (53.4%), intermediate in 202 (14.6%) and low in 442 (32%) patients. Men [25.1(15.4-37.3)] showed a higher eCVR than women [18.8 (12.4-27.9) p < 0.001]. The most common risk factor was high LDL-cholesterol (80.8%), most frequently found in women than in men (p = 0.01). The median of risk factors present was three (2-4) without gender differences. Overall we observed that 60 (4.3%) of our patients had none, 154(11.1%) one, 310 (22.4%) two, 385 (27.9%) three, 300 (21.7%) four, 149 (10.5%) five and six, (2%) six risk factors. A higher eCVR was noted in overweight or obese patients (p = 0.01 for both groups). No association was found between eCVR with age or a specific type of diabetes treatment. A correlation was found between eCVR and duration of diabetes (p < 0.001), BMI (p < 0.001), creatinine (p < 0.001) and triglycerides levels (p < 0.001) but it was not found with HbA1c, fasting blood glucose and postprandial glucose. A higher eCVR was observed in patients with retinopathy (p < 0.001) and a tendency in patients with microalbuminuria (p = 0.06). Conclusion: our study showed that in this group of Brazilian T2DM the eCVR was correlated with the lipid profile and it was higher in patients with microvascular chronic complications. No correlation was found with glycemic control parameters. These data could explain the failure of intensive glycemic control programs aiming to reduce cardiovascular events observed in some studies.

Prevalence, Incidence Density, and Genotype Distribution of GB Virus C Infection in a Cohort of Recently HIV-1-Infected Subjects in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: The results of previous studies elsewhere have indicated that GB virus C (GBV-C) infection is frequent in patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) due to similar transmission routes of both viruses. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence, incidence density and genotypic characteristics of GBV-C in this population. Methodology/Principal Findings: The study population included 233 patients from a cohort primarily comprised of homosexual men recently infected with HIV-1 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The presence of GBV-C RNA was determined in plasma samples by reverse transcriptase-nested polymerase chain reaction and quantified by real-time PCR. GBV-C genotypes were determined by direct sequencing. HIV viral load, CD4+ T lymphocyte and CD8+ T lymphocyte count were also tested in all patients. The overall prevalence of GBV-C infection was 0.23 (95% CI: 0.18 to 0.29) in the study group. There was no significant difference between patients with and without GBV-C infection and Glycoprotein E2 antibody presence regarding age, sex, HIV-1 viral load, CD4+ and CD8+ T cell counts and treatment with antiretroviral drugs. An inverse correlation was observed between GBV-C and HIV-1 loads at enrollment and after one year. Also, a positive but not significant correlation was observed between GBV-C load and CD4+ T lymphocyte. Phylogenetic analysis of the GBV-C isolates revealed the presence of genotype 1 and genotype 2, these sub classified into subtype 2a and 2b. Conclusion/Significance: GBV-C infection is common in recently HIV -1 infected patients in Sao Paulo, Brazil and the predominant genotype is 2b. This study provides the first report of the GBV-C prevalence at the time of diagnosis of HIV-1 and the incidence density of GBV-C infection in one year.

TCF7L2 variant genotypes and type 2 diabetes risk in Brazil: significant association, but not a significant tool for risk stratification in the general population

Background: Genetic polymorphisms of the TCF7L2 gene are strongly associated with large increments in type 2 diabetes risk in different populations worldwide. In this study, we aimed to confirm the effect of the TCF7L2 polymorphism rs7903146 on diabetes risk in a Brazilian population and to assess the use of this genetic marker in improving diabetes risk prediction in the general population. Methods: We genotyped the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene in 560 patients with known coronary disease enrolled in the MASS II (Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study) Trial and in 1,449 residents of Vitoria, in Southeast Brazil. The associations of this gene variant to diabetes risk and metabolic characteristics in these two different populations were analyzed. To access the potential benefit of using this marker for diabetes risk prediction in the general population we analyzed the impact of this genetic variant on a validated diabetes risk prediction tool based on clinical characteristics developed for the Brazilian general population. Results: SNP rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes in the MASS-II population (OR = 1.57 per T allele, p = 0.0032), confirming, in the Brazilian population, previous reports of the literature. Addition of this polymorphism to an established clinical risk prediction score did not increased model accuracy (both area under ROC curve equal to 0.776). Conclusion: TCF7L2 rs7903146 T allele is associated with a 1.57 increased risk for type 2 diabetes in a Brazilian cohort of patients with known coronary heart disease. However, the inclusion of this polymorphism in a risk prediction tool developed for the general population resulted in no improvement of performance. This is the first study, to our knowledge, that has confirmed this recent association in a South American population and adds to the great consistency of this finding in studies around the world. Finally, confirming the biological association of a genetic marker does not guarantee improvement on already established screening tools based solely on demographic variables.

Distribution of hepatitis c virus (hcv) genotypes in patients with chronic infection from Rondonia, Brazil

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an important human pathogen affecting around 3% of the human population. In Brazil, it is estimated that there are approximately 2 to 3 million HCV chronic carriers. There are few reports of HCV prevalence in Rondonia State (RO), but it was estimated in 9.7% from 1999 to 2005. The aim of this study was to characterize HCV genotypes in 58 chronic HCV infected patients from Porto Velho, Rondonia (RO), Brazil. Methods: A fragment of 380 bp of NS5B region was amplified by nested PCR for genotyping analysis. Viral sequences were characterized by phylogenetic analysis using reference sequences obtained from the GenBank (n = 173). Sequences were aligned using Muscle software and edited in the SE-AL software. Phylogenetic analyses were conducted using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) to obtain the MCC tree using BEAST v. 1.5.3. Results: From 58 anti-HCV positive samples, 22 were positive to the NS5B fragment and successfully sequenced. Genotype 1b was the most prevalent in this population (50%), followed by 1a (27.2%), 2b (13.6%) and 3a (9.0%). Conclusions: This study is the first report of HCV genotypes from Rondonia State and subtype 1b was found to be the most prevalent. This subtype is mostly found among people who have a previous history of blood transfusion but more detailed studies with a larger number of patients are necessary to understand the HCV dynamics in the population of Rondonia State, Brazil.

Characterization of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotypes in patients from Rondonia, Brazil

Background: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) can be classified into nine genotypes (A-I) defined by sequence divergence of more than 8% based on the complete genome. This study aims to identify the genotypic distribution of HBV in 40 HBsAg-positive patients from Rondonia, Brazil. A fragment of 1306 bp partially comprising surface and polymerase overlapping genes was amplified by PCR. Amplified DNA was purified and sequenced. Amplified DNA was purified and sequenced on an ABI PRISM (R) 377 Automatic Sequencer (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA, USA). The obtained sequences were aligned with reference sequences obtained from the GenBank using Clustal X software and then edited with Se-Al software. Phylogenetic analyses were conducted by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach using BEAST v.1.5.3. Results: The subgenotypes distribution was A1 (37.1%), D3 (22.8%), F2a (20.0%), D4 (17.1%) and D2 (2.8%). Conclusions: These results for the first HBV genotypic characterization in Rondonia state are consistent with other studies in Brazil, showing the presence of several HBV genotypes that reflects the mixed origin of the population, involving descendants from Native Americans, Europeans, and Africans.

Spatio-Temporal Tracking and Phylodynamics of an Urban Dengue 3 Outbreak in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The dengue virus has a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome of similar to 10.700 nucleotides with a single open reading frame that encodes three structural (C, prM, and E) and seven nonstructural (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) proteins. It possesses four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1-4). Many phylogenetic studies address particularities of the different serotypes using convenience samples that are not conducive to a spatio-temporal analysis in a single urban setting. We describe the pattern of spread of distinct lineages of DENV-3 circulating in Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, during 2006. Blood samples from patients presenting dengue-like symptoms were collected for DENV testing. We performed M-N-PCR using primers based on NS5 for virus detection and identification. The fragments were purified from PCR mixtures and sequenced. The positive dengue cases were geo-coded. To type the sequenced samples, 52 reference sequences were aligned. The dataset generated was used for iterative phylogenetic reconstruction with the maximum likelihood criterion. The best demographic model, the rate of growth, rate of evolutionary change, and Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were estimated. The basic reproductive rate during the epidemics was estimated. We obtained sequences from 82 patients among 174 blood samples. We were able to geo-code 46 sequences. The alignment generated a 399-nucleotide-long dataset with 134 taxa. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that all samples were of DENV-3 and related to strains circulating on the isle of Martinique in 2000-2001. Sixty DENV-3 from Sao Jose do Rio Preto formed a monophyletic group (lineage 1), closely related to the remaining 22 isolates (lineage 2). We assumed that these lineages appeared before 2006 in different occasions. By transforming the inferred exponential growth rates into the basic reproductive rate, we obtained values for lineage 1 of R(0) = 1.53 and values for lineage 2 of R(0) = 1.13. Under the exponential model, TMRCA of lineage 1 dated 1 year and lineage 2 dated 3.4 years before the last sampling. The possibility of inferring the spatio-temporal dynamics from genetic data has been generally little explored, and it may shed light on DENV circulation. The use of both geographic and temporally structured phylogenetic data provided a detailed view on the spread of at least two dengue viral strains in a populated urban area.

The family health system: analysis of a health survey in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background The Family Health Strategy (FHS) has been implemented as a strategy for primary care improvement in Brazil. Working with teams that include one doctor, one nurse, auxiliary nurses and community health workers in predefined areas, the FHS began in 1994 (known then as the Family Health Program) and has since grown considerably. The programme has only recently undergone assessment of outcomes, in contrast to more routine evaluations of infrastructure and process. Methods In 2001, a health survey was carried out in two administrative districts (with 190 000 inhabitants) on the outskirts of the city of Sao Paulo, both partially served by the FHS. Chronic morbidity (hypertension, diabetes and ischaemic heart disease) of individuals aged 15 or older was studied in areas covered and not covered by the programme. Stratified univariate analysis was applied for sex, age, education, income, working status and social insurance of these populations. Multivariate analysis was applied where applicable. Results There was a distinct pattern in the morbidity profile of these populations, suggesting differentiated self-knowledge on chronic disease status in the areas served by the FHS. Conclusion The FHS can increase population awareness of chronic diseases, possibly through increasing access to primary care.

The variability and predictors of quality of AIDS care services in Brazil

Background: Since establishing universal free access to antiretroviral therapy in 1996, the Brazilian Health System has increased the number of centers providing HIV/AIDS outpatient care from 33 to 540. There had been no formal monitoring of the quality of these services until a survey of 336 AIDS health centers across 7 Brazilian states was undertaken in 2002. Managers of the services were asked to assess their clinics according to parameters of service inputs and service delivery processes. This report analyzes the survey results and identifies predictors of the overall quality of service delivery. Methods: The survey involved completion of a multiple-choice questionnaire comprising 107 parameters of service inputs and processes of delivering care, with responses assessed according to their likely impact on service quality using a 3-point scale. K-means clustering was used to group these services according to their scored responses. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of high service quality. Results: The questionnaire was completed by 95.8% (322) of the managers of the sites surveyed. Most sites scored about 50% of the benchmark expectation. K-means clustering analysis identified four quality levels within which services could be grouped: 76 services (24%) were classed as level 1 (best), 53 (16%) as level 2 (medium), 113 (35%) as level 3 (poor), and 80 (25%) as level 4 (very poor). Parameters of service delivery processes were more important than those relating to service inputs for determining the quality classification. Predictors of quality services included larger care sites, specialization for HIV/AIDS, and location within large municipalities. Conclusion: The survey demonstrated highly variable levels of HIV/AIDS service quality across the sites. Many sites were found to have deficiencies in the processes of service delivery processes that could benefit from quality improvement initiatives. These findings could have implications for how HIV/AIDS services are planned in Brazil to achieve quality standards, such as for where service sites should be located, their size and staffing requirements. A set of service delivery indicators has been identified that could be used for routine monitoring of HIV/AIDS service delivery for HIV/AIDS in Brazil (and potentially in other similar settings).

Genetic Diversity on the Integrase Region of the pol Gene among HIV Type 1-Infected Patients Naive for Integrase Inhibitors in Sao Paulo City, Brazil

The presence of mutations associated with integrase inhibitor (INI) resistance among INI-naive patients may play an important clinical role in the use of those drugs Samples from 76 HIV-1-infected subjects naive to INIs were submitted to direct sequencing. No differences were found between naive (25%) subjects and subjects on HAART (75%). No primary mutation associated with raltegravir or elvitegravir resistance was found. However, 78% of sequences showed at least one accessory mutation associated with resistance. The analysis of the 76 IN sequences showed a high polymorphic level on this region among Brazilian HIV-1-infected subjects, including a high prevalence of aa substitutions related to INI resistance. The impact of these findings remains unclear and further studies are necessary to address these questions.

Predictors of HBeAg status and hepatitis B viraemia in HIV-infected patients with chronic hepatitis B in the HAART era in Brazil

Background: HBV-HIV co-infection is associated with an increased liver-related morbidity and mortality. However, little is known about the natural history of chronic hepatitis B in HIV-infected individuals under highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) receiving at least one of the two drugs that also affect HBV (TDF and LAM). Information about HBeAg status and HBV viremia in HIV/HBV co-infected patients is scarce. The objective of this study was to search for clinical and virological variables associated with HBeAg status and HBV viremia in patients of an HIV/HBV co-infected cohort. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed, of HBsAg-positive HIV-infected patients in treatment between 1994 and 2007 in two AIDS outpatient clinics located in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area, Brazil. The baseline data were age, sex, CD4 T+ cell count, ALT level, HIV and HBV viral load, HBV genotype, and duration of antiretroviral use. The variables associated to HBeAg status and HBV viremia were assessed using logistic regression. Results: A total of 86 HBsAg patients were included in the study. Of these, 48 (56%) were using combination therapy that included lamivudine (LAM) and tenofovir (TDF), 31 (36%) were using LAM monotherapy, and 7 patients had no previous use of either one. Duration of use of TDF and LAM varied from 4 to 21 and 7 to 144 months, respectively. A total of 42 (48. 9%) patients were HBeAg positive and 44 (51. 1%) were HBeAg negative. The multivariate analysis revealed that the use of TDF for longer than 12 months was associated with undetectable HBV DNA viral load (serum HBV DNA level < 60 UI/ml) (p = 0. 047). HBeAg positivity was associated with HBV DNA > 60 UI/ml (p = 0. 001) and ALT levels above normality (p = 0. 038). Conclusion: Prolonged use of TDF containing HAART is associated with undetectable HBV DNA viral load. HBeAg positivity is associated with HBV viremia and increased ALT levels.

Near full-length genome analysis of low prevalent human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subclade F1 in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: The genetic diversity of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is critical to lay the groundwork for the design of successful drugs or vaccine. In this study we aimed to characterize and define the molecular prevalence of HIV-1 subclade F1 currently circulating in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: A total of 36 samples were selected from 888 adult patients residing in Sao Paulo who had previously been diagnosed in two independent studies in our laboratory as being infected with subclade F1 based on pol subgenomic fragment sequencing. Proviral DNA was amplified from the purified genomic DNA of all 36 blood samples by 5 fragments overlapping PCR followed by direct sequencing. Sequence data were obtained from the 5 fragments of pure subclade F1 and phylogenetic trees were constructed and compared with previously published sequences. Subclades F1 that exhibited mosaic structure with other subtypes were omitted from any further analysis Results: Our methods of fragment amplification and sequencing confirmed that only 5 sequences inferred from pol region as subclade F1 also holds true for the genome as a whole and, thus, estimated the true prevalence at 0.56%. The results also showed a single phylogenetic cluster of the Brazilian subclade F1 along with non-Brazilian South American isolates in both subgenomic and the full-length genomes analysis with an overall intrasubtype nucleotide divergence of 6.9%. The nucleotide differences within the South American and Central African F1 strains, in the C2-C3 env, were 8.5% and 12.3%, respectively. Conclusion: All together, our findings showed a surprisingly low prevalence rate of subclade F1 in Brazil and suggest that these isolates originated in Central Africa and subsequently introduced to South America.