733 resultados para Smoothed bootstrap
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Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.
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Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.
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Alternations between siliciclastic, carbonate and evaporitic sedimentary systems, as recorded in the Aptian mixed succession of southern Tunisia, reflect profound palaeoceanographic and palaeoclimatic changes in this area of the southern Tethyan margin. The evolution from Urgonian-type carbonates (Berrani Formation, lower Aptian) at the base of the series, to intervals dominated by gypsum or detrital deposits in the remainder of the Aptian is thought to result from the interplay between climate change and tectonic activity that affected North Africa. Based on the evolution of clay mineral assemblages, the early Aptian is interpreted as having been dominated by slightly humid conditions, since smectitic minerals are observed. Near the early to late Aptian boundary, the onset of a gypsiferous sedimentation is associated with the appearance of palygorskite and sepiolite, which supports the installation of arid conditions in this area of the southern Tethyan margin. The evaporitic sedimentation may have also been promoted by the peculiar tectonic setting of the Bir Oum Ali area during the Aptian, where local subsidence may have been tectonically enhanced linked to the opening of northern and central Atlantic. Stress associated with the west and central African rift systems may have triggered the development of NW-SE, hemi-graben structures. Uplifted areas may have constituted potential new sources for clastic material that has been subsequently deposited during the late Aptian. Chemostratigraphic (d13C) correlation of the Bir Oum Ali succession with other peri-Tethyan regions complements biostratigraphic findings, and indicates that a potential expression of the Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a may be preserved in this area of Tunisia. Although the characteristic negative spike at the base of this event is not recognized in the present study, a subsequent, large positive excursion with d13C values is of similar amplitude and absolute values to that reported from other peri-Tethyan regions, thus supporting the identification of isotopic segments C4-C7 of the OAE1a. The absence of the negative spike may be linked to either non preservation or non deposition: the OAE1a occurred in a global transgressive context, and since the Bir Oum Ali region was located in the innermost part of the southern Tethyan margin during most of the Aptian, stratigraphic hiatuses may have been longer than in other regions of the Tethys. This emphasizes the importance of integrating several stratigraphic disciplines (bio-, chemo- and sequence stratigraphy) when performing long-distance correlation.
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To unravel the climatic and environmental dynamics in the borderlands of the Aegean Sea during the early and middle Holocene, and notably for the interval of sapropel S1 (S1) formation, we have analysed terrestrial palynomorphs from a marine core in the northern Aegean Sea. The qualitative results were complemented by quantitative pollen-based climate reconstructions. A land-sea correlation was established based on pollen data and sediment lightness measurements from the same core, and previously published benthic foraminifer data from a nearby core. The borderlands of the Aegean Sea underwent a transition from an open vegetation to oak-dominated woodlands between ~10.4 and ~9.5 ka cal BP. A coeval increase in winter precipitation suggests that moisture availability was the main factor controlling Holocene reforestation. The ~50% higher winter precipitation during S1 formation relative to "pre-sapropelic" conditions suggests a strong contribution from the borderlands of the Aegean Sea to the freshwater surplus during S1 formation. The humid and mild winter conditions during S1 formation were repeatedly punctuated by short-term climatic events that caused a partial deforestation and a reorganisation within the broad-leaved arboreal vegetation. In the marine realm, these events are documented by improved benthic oxygenation. The strongest event represents the regional expression of the 8.2 ka cold event and led to an interruption in S1 formation. Except for the interval of S1 formation, the pollen-derived winter temperatures correlate with the smoothed GISP2 K+ series. They support the previously published, marine-based concept that the intensity of the Siberian High strongly controlled the winter climate in the Aegean region. During S1 formation in the Aegean Sea, however, climate conditions in the borderlands were more strongly affected by the monsoonally influenced climate system of the lower latitudes.
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A multicentennial and absolutely-dated shell-based chronology for the marine environment of the North Icelandic Shelf has been constructed using annual growth increments in the shell of the long-lived bivalve clam Arctica islandica. The region from which the shells were collected is close to the North Atlantic Polar Front and is highly sensitive to the varying influences of Atlantic and Arctic water masses. A strong common environmental signal is apparent in the increment widths, and although the correlations between the growth increment indices and regional sea surface temperatures are significant at the 95% confidence level, they are low (r ~ 0.2), indicating that a more complex combination of environmental forcings is driving growth. Remarkable longevities of individual animals are apparent in the increment-width series used in the chronology, with several animals having lifetimes in excess of 300 years and one, at 507 years, being the longest-lived non-colonial animal so far reported whose age at death can be accurately determined. The sample depth is at least three shells after AD 1175, and the time series has been extended back to AD 649 with a sample depth of one or two by the addition of two further series, thus providing a 1357-year archive of dated shell material. The statistical and spectral characteristics of the chronology are investigated by using two different methods of removing the age-related trend in shell growth. Comparison with other proxy archives from the same region reveals several similarities in variability on multidecadal timescales, particularly during the period surrounding the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age.
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Background: Shiftwork is associated with increased sleep disturbance and cardiovascular and metabolic disease risk. This thesis will focus on shiftwork-related sleep disturbance and the potential mediating role of reduced sleep duration in the relationship between a current rotational shiftwork schedule and the metabolic syndrome among female hospital employees. Objectives: 1) To describe sleep patterns in relation to different shiftwork exposure metrics (current status, cumulative exposure, number of consecutive night shifts); 2) To assess the association between shiftwork metrics and sleep duration; 3) To determine whether sleep duration on work shifts mediates the relationship between a current rotational shiftwork pattern and the metabolic syndrome; and 4) To assess whether cumulative shiftwork exposure and the number of consecutive night shifts are associated with the metabolic syndrome. Methods: 294 female hospital employees (142 rotating shiftworkers, 152 dayworkers) participated in a cross-sectional study. Shiftwork parameters were determined through self-report. Sleep was measured for one week with the ActiGraph GT3X+, a tri-axial accelerometer. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to the Joint Interim Studies Consensus Statement. Sleep was described by shiftwork exposure parameters, and multivariable linear regression was used to determine associations between shiftwork variables and sleep duration. Regression path analysis was used to assess whether sleep duration was a mediator between a current shiftwork schedule and the metabolic syndrome, and the significance of the indirect (mediating) effect was tested with bootstrap confidence intervals. Logistic regression was used to determine associations between cumulative shiftwork exposure, number of consecutive night shifts, and the metabolic syndrome. Results: Current shiftworkers slept less on work shifts, more on free days, and were more likely to nap compared to dayworkers. Sleep duration on work shifts was a strong intermediate in the relationship between a current shiftwork pattern and the metabolic syndrome. Cumulative shiftwork exposure and the number of consecutive night shifts did not affect sleep or the metabolic syndrome. Conclusions: A current shiftwork pattern disrupts sleep, and reduced sleep duration is an important intermediate between shiftwork and the metabolic syndrome among female hospital employees.
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When we study the variables that a ffect survival time, we usually estimate their eff ects by the Cox regression model. In biomedical research, e ffects of the covariates are often modi ed by a biomarker variable. This leads to covariates-biomarker interactions. Here biomarker is an objective measurement of the patient characteristics at baseline. Liu et al. (2015) has built up a local partial likelihood bootstrap model to estimate and test this interaction e ffect of covariates and biomarker, but the R code developed by Liu et al. (2015) can only handle one variable and one interaction term and can not t the model with adjustment to nuisance variables. In this project, we expand the model to allow adjustment to nuisance variables, expand the R code to take any chosen interaction terms, and we set up many parameters for users to customize their research. We also build up an R package called "lplb" to integrate the complex computations into a simple interface. We conduct numerical simulation to show that the new method has excellent fi nite sample properties under both the null and alternative hypothesis. We also applied the method to analyze data from a prostate cancer clinical trial with acid phosphatase (AP) biomarker.
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ABSTRACT. – Phylogenies and molecular clocks of the diatoms have largely been inferred from SSU rDNA sequences. A new phylogeny of diatoms was estimated using four gene markers SSU and LSU rDNA rbcL and psbA (total 4352 bp) with 42 diatom species. The four gene trees analysed with a maximum likelihood (ML) and Baysian (BI) analysis recovered a monophyletic origin of the new diatom classes with high bootstrap support, which has been controversial with single gene markers using single outgroups and alignments that do not take secondary structure of the SSU gene into account. The divergence time of the classes were calculated from a ML tree in the MultliDiv Time program using a Bayesian estimation allowing for simultaneous constraints from the fossil record and varying rates of molecular evolution of different branches in the phylogenetic tree. These divergence times are generally in agreement with those proposed by other clocks using single genes with the exception that the pennates appear much earlier and suggest a longer Cretaceous fossil record that has yet to be sampled. Ghost lineages (i.e. the discrepancy between first appearance (FA) and molecular clock age of origin from an extant taxon) were revealed in the pennate lineage, whereas those ghost lineages in the centric lineages previously reported by others are reviewed and referred to earlier literature.
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ABSTRACT. – Phylogenies and molecular clocks of the diatoms have largely been inferred from SSU rDNA sequences. A new phylogeny of diatoms was estimated using four gene markers SSU and LSU rDNA rbcL and psbA (total 4352 bp) with 42 diatom species. The four gene trees analysed with a maximum likelihood (ML) and Baysian (BI) analysis recovered a monophyletic origin of the new diatom classes with high bootstrap support, which has been controversial with single gene markers using single outgroups and alignments that do not take secondary structure of the SSU gene into account. The divergence time of the classes were calculated from a ML tree in the MultliDiv Time program using a Bayesian estimation allowing for simultaneous constraints from the fossil record and varying rates of molecular evolution of different branches in the phylogenetic tree. These divergence times are generally in agreement with those proposed by other clocks using single genes with the exception that the pennates appear much earlier and suggest a longer Cretaceous fossil record that has yet to be sampled. Ghost lineages (i.e. the discrepancy between first appearance (FA) and molecular clock age of origin from an extant taxon) were revealed in the pennate lineage, whereas those ghost lineages in the centric lineages previously reported by others are reviewed and referred to earlier literature.
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Summit Music Management är ett managementföretag som arbetar med en rad svenska artister. I deras arbetsuppgifter ingår även hantering av artisternas webbplatser, ett arbete som visat sig vara säkerhetskänsligt och svårt att få klart. Målet med projektet har varit att utveckla ett Content Management System för aktörer inom musikbranschen, vars syfte det är att förenkla det dagliga arbetet av dessa webbplatser. Systemet ska innehålla funktionalitet som gör det möjligt att skapa webbplatser åt artisterna samtidigt som det ska gå att underhålla och uppdatera textmaterial såväl som bilder som finns på webbplatserna. Systemet har skapats med tekniker, språk och ramverk som finns tillgängliga under fria licensavtal. Systemets grund är skapat med PHP-ramverket Laravel tillsammans med HTML, CSS och Twitter Bootstrap. Denna del fungerar som gränssnitt för administratörer där användaren kan logga in och skapa webbplatser. De webb-platser som skapas av systemet är skrivna i AngularJS tillsammans med HTML, CSS och Twitter Bootstrap. Mellan dessa delar finns ett REST-api skrivet i Laravel som sköter kommunikationen mellan komponenterna. Systemet arbetar mot en MySQL-databas där all data lagras och hämtas ifrån. Summit Music Management har förutom att leverera text- och bildmaterial, även fungerat somtestpanel för att kunna mäta systemets användbarhet. Testerna visade att systemet kan möta de behov som finns hos Summit Music Management men att det kan komma att behöva vidareutvecklas för att bättre passa en större kundgrupp och för att strama åt säkerhetsaspekterna ytterligare.
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A gestão das organizações não governamentais (ONG’s) apresenta dificuldades peculiares devido a falta de financiamento, o que dificulta a contratação de recursos humanos qualificados e a aquisição de ferramentas de gestão adequadas. Mesmo sem prosseguirem fins lucrativos, estas instituições procuram novas formas de gerir sua estrutura organizacional procurando atingir a missão e os objetivos definidos no seu planeamento. A ADECO - Associação para Defesa do Consumidor - é uma ONG de intervenção cívica e de solidariedade social na defesa dos legítimos interesses de todos os consumidores, e em particular, dos seus associados. Este trabalho propõe o desenvolvimento de um Sistema de Informação Web para a ADECO, que permita automatizar, simplificar e agilizar a informação através de duas vertentes: a pública e a privada. A vertente privada trata da gestão dos seus sócios e suas reclamações e a vertente pública do desenvolvimento de um Site para apresentação de informações, de notícias, e de áudios e vídeos dos programas transmitidos nos órgãos de comunicação social locais. O sistema foi desenvolvido na linguagem PHP, com o auxílio dos Framewoks Codeigniter e Bootstrap e a base de dados criada em MySql, utilizando o sistema de gestão de base de dados (SGBD), Phpmyadmin.
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Este estudio presenta la validación de las observaciones que realizó el programa de observación pesquera llamado Programa Bitácoras de Pesca (PBP) durante el periodo 2005 - 2011 en el área de distribución donde operan las embarcaciones industriales de cerco dedicadas a la pesca del stock norte-centro de la anchoveta peruana (Engraulis ringens). Además, durante ese mismo periodo y área de distribución, se estimó la magnitud del descarte por exceso de captura, descarte de juveniles y la captura incidental de dicha pesquera. Se observaron 3 768 viajes de un total de 302 859, representando un porcentaje de 1.2 %. Los datos del descarte por exceso de captura, descarte de juveniles y captura incidental registrados en los viajes observados, se caracterizaron por presentar un alta proporción de ceros. Para la validación de las observaciones, se realizó un estudio de simulación basado en la metodología de Monte Carlo usando un modelo de distribución binomial negativo. Esta permite inferir sobre el nivel de cobertura óptima y conocer si la información obtenida en el programa de observación es contable. De este análisis, se concluye que los niveles de observación actual se deberían incrementar hasta tener un nivel de cobertura de al menos el 10% del total de viajes que realicen en el año las embarcaciones industriales de cerco dedicadas a la pesca del stock norte-centro de la anchoveta peruana. La estimación del descarte por exceso de captura, descarte de juveniles y captura incidental se realizó mediante tres metodologías: Bootstrap, Modelo General Lineal (GLM) y Modelo Delta. Cada metodología estimó distintas magnitudes con tendencias similares. Las magnitudes estimadas fueron comparadas usando un ANOVA Bayesiano, la cual muestra que hubo escasa evidencia que las magnitudes estimadas del descarte por exceso de captura por metodología sean diferentes, lo mismo se presentó para el caso de la captura incidental, mientras que para el descarte de juveniles mostró que hubieron diferencias sustanciales de ser diferentes. La metodología que cumplió los supuestos y explico la mayor variabilidad de las variables modeladas fue el Modelo Delta, el cual parece ser una mejor alternativa para la estimación, debido a la alta proporción de ceros en los datos. Las estimaciones promedio del descarte por exceso de captura, descarte de juveniles y captura incidental aplicando el Modelo Delta, fueron 252 580, 41 772, 44 823 toneladas respectivamente, que en conjunto representaron el 5.74% de los desembarques. Además, con la magnitud de la estimación del descarte de juveniles, se realizó un ejercicio de proyección de biomasa bajo el escenario hipotético de no mortalidad por pesca y que los individuos juveniles descartados sólo presentaron tallas de 8 y 11 cm., en la cual se obtuvo que la biomasa que no estará disponible a la pesca está entre los 52 mil y 93 mil toneladas.
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Se hace un análisis del estado poblacional del cangrejo violáceo Platyxanthus orbignyi (Milne Edwards y Lucas, 1843) del litoral de Lambayeque – Perú para el periodo 2001-2010 por medio de: 1) El modelo dinámico de biomasa de Schaefer en su versión de error de observación; a este modelo se le introdujo la variable ambiental anomalía de la temperatura superficial del mar (ATSM) del área de San José (Lambayeque) y se obtuvo 2) el modelo dinámico con variable ambiental, ambos basados en datos de captura, esfuerzo y CPUE. Se utilizó el método de máxima verosimilitud en el proceso de ajuste y el bootstrap para determinar los intervalos de confianza de los parámetros. Los parámetros poblacionales y pesqueros estimados por el modelo dinámico de biomasa de Schaefer (MDB) fueron: K: 750 000 kg, r : 0,21 y q: 8,36 x 10-6 y por el modelo dinámico con variable ambiental (MDVA) los parámetros fueron K: 765 000 kg, r: 0,23 y q: 8,02 x 10-6. Con los valores de los parámetros estimados mediante el MDB y el MDVA se calcularon los principales puntos biológicos de referencia (PBR) los cuales fueron: MRS: 39 822 kg, BMRS: 375 000 kg, fMRS: 12 561 nasas, FMRS: 0,11, F0.1: 0,10 para el MDB; y MRS: 44 069 kg, BMRS: 382 500 kg, fMRS: 13 782 nasas, FMRS: 0,12, F0.1: 0,10 para el MDVA. Los resultados indican que el estado actual de la pesquería del cangrejo violáceo del Litoral de Lambayeque se encuentra muy cerca al nivel óptimo. En vista de que no se dispone de información de evaluaciones directas de este recurso que confirme o no los resultados del MDB y MDVA y en virtud de la calidad de datos, se sugiere que el manejo de la pesquería sea del tipo adaptativo alrededor del punto de referencia F0.1 y teniendo en cuenta las condiciones ambientales.