Identifying large truck hot spots using crash counts and PDOEs

Large trucks are involved in a disproportionately small fraction of the total crashes but a disproportionately large fraction of fatal crashes. Large truck crashes often result in significant congestion due to their large physical dimensions and from difficulties in clearing crash scenes. Consequently, preventing large truck crashes is critical to improving highway safety and operations. This study identifies high risk sites (hot spots) for large truck crashes in Arizona and examines potential risk factors related to the design and operation of the high risk sites. High risk sites were identified using both state of the practice methods (accident reduction potential using negative binomial regression with long crash histories) and a newly proposed method using Property Damage Only Equivalents (PDOE). The hot spots identified via the count model generally exhibited low fatalities and major injuries but large minor injuries and PDOs, while the opposite trend was observed using the PDOE methodology. The hot spots based on the count model exhibited large AADTs, whereas those based on the PDOE showed relatively small AADTs but large fractions of trucks and high posted speed limits. Documented site investigations of hot spots revealed numerous potential risk factors, including weaving activities near freeway junctions and ramps, absence of acceleration lanes near on-ramps, small shoulders to accommodate large trucks, narrow lane widths, inadequate signage, and poor lighting conditions within a tunnel.

Framework for measuring corporate safety culture and its impact on construction safety performance

This paper presents the results of a structural equation model (SEM) that describes and quantifies the relationships between corporate culture and safety performance. The SEM is estimated using 196 individual questionnaire responses from three companies with better than average safety records. A multiattribute analysis of corporate safety culture characteristics resulted in a hierarchical description of corporate safety culture comprised of three major categories — people, process, and value. These three major categories were decomposed into 54 measurable questions and used to develop a questionnaire to quantify corporate safety culture. The SEM identified five latent variables that describe corporate safety culture: (1) a company’s safety commitment; (2) the safety incentives that are offered to field personal for safe performance; (3) the subcontractor involvement in the company culture; (4) the field safety accountability and dedication; and (5) the disincentives for unsafe behaviors. These characteristics of company safety culture serve as indicators for a company’s safety performance. Based on the findings from this limited sample of three companies, this paper proposes a list of practices that companies may consider to improve corporate safety culture and safety performance. A more comprehensive study based on a larger sample is recommended to corroborate the findings of this study.

Evaluation of the Scottsdale Loop 101 automated speed enforcement demonstration program

Speeding is recognized as a major contributing factor in traffic crashes. In order to reduce speed-related crashes, the city of Scottsdale, Arizona implemented the first fixed-camera photo speed enforcement program (SEP) on a limited access freeway in the US. The 9-month demonstration program spanning from January 2006 to October 2006 was implemented on a 6.5 mile urban freeway segment of Arizona State Route 101 running through Scottsdale. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the SEP on speeding behavior, crashes, and the economic impact of crashes. The impact on speeding behavior was estimated using generalized least square estimation, in which the observed speeds and the speeding frequencies during the program period were compared to those during other periods. The impact of the SEP on crashes was estimated using 3 evaluation methods: a before-and-after (BA) analysis using a comparison group, a BA analysis with traffic flow correction, and an empirical Bayes BA analysis with time-variant safety. The analysis results reveal that speeding detection frequencies (speeds> or =76 mph) increased by a factor of 10.5 after the SEP was (temporarily) terminated. Average speeds in the enforcement zone were reduced by about 9 mph when the SEP was implemented, after accounting for the influence of traffic flow. All crash types were reduced except rear-end crashes, although the estimated magnitude of impact varies across estimation methods (and their corresponding assumptions). When considering Arizona-specific crash related injury costs, the SEP is estimated to yield about $17 million in annual safety benefits.

Experimental evaluation of hotspot identification methods

Identifying crash “hotspots”, “blackspots”, “sites with promise”, or “high risk” locations is standard practice in departments of transportation throughout the US. The literature is replete with the development and discussion of statistical methods for hotspot identification (HSID). Theoretical derivations and empirical studies have been used to weigh the benefits of various HSID methods; however, a small number of studies have used controlled experiments to systematically assess various methods. Using experimentally derived simulated data—which are argued to be superior to empirical data, three hot spot identification methods observed in practice are evaluated: simple ranking, confidence interval, and Empirical Bayes. Using simulated data, sites with promise are known a priori, in contrast to empirical data where high risk sites are not known for certain. To conduct the evaluation, properties of observed crash data are used to generate simulated crash frequency distributions at hypothetical sites. A variety of factors is manipulated to simulate a host of ‘real world’ conditions. Various levels of confidence are explored, and false positives (identifying a safe site as high risk) and false negatives (identifying a high risk site as safe) are compared across methods. Finally, the effects of crash history duration in the three HSID approaches are assessed. The results illustrate that the Empirical Bayes technique significantly outperforms ranking and confidence interval techniques (with certain caveats). As found by others, false positives and negatives are inversely related. Three years of crash history appears, in general, to provide an appropriate crash history duration.

Modeling crash types: New insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections

Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Visual assessment of pedestrian crashes

Of the numerous factors that play a role in fatal pedestrian collisions, the time of day, day of the week, and time of year can be significant determinants. More than 60% of all pedestrian collisions in 2007 occurred at night, despite the presumed decrease in both pedestrian and automobile exposure during the night. Although this trend is partially explained by factors such as fatigue and alcohol consumption, prior analysis of the Fatality Analysis Reporting System database suggests that pedestrian fatalities increase as light decreases after controlling for other factors. This study applies graphical cross-tabulation, a novel visual assessment approach, to explore the relationships among collision variables. The results reveal that twilight and the first hour of darkness typically observe the greatest frequency of pedestrian fatal collisions. These hours are not necessarily the most risky on a per mile travelled basis, however, because pedestrian volumes are often still high. Additional analysis is needed to quantify the extent to which pedestrian exposure (walking/crossing activity) in these time periods plays a role in pedestrian crash involvement. Weekly patterns of pedestrian fatal collisions vary by time of year due to the seasonal changes in sunset time. In December, collisions are concentrated around twilight and the first hour of darkness throughout the week while, in June, collisions are most heavily concentrated around twilight and the first hours of darkness on Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday nights in June may be the most dangerous times for pedestrians. Knowing when pedestrian risk is highest is critically important for formulating effective mitigation strategies and for efficiently investing safety funds. This applied visual approach is a helpful tool for researchers intending to communicate with policy-makers and to identify relationships that can then be tested with more sophisticated statistical tools.

Group segmentation during object tracking using optical flow discontinuities

Within a surveillance video, occlusions are commonplace, and accurately resolving these occlusions is key when seeking to accurately track objects. The challenge of accurately segmenting objects is further complicated by the fact that within many real-world surveillance environments, the objects appear very similar. For example, footage of pedestrians in a city environment will consist of many people wearing dark suits. In this paper, we propose a novel technique to segment groups and resolve occlusions using optical flow discontinuities. We demonstrate that the ratio of continuous to discontinuous pixels within a region can be used to locate the overlapping edges, and incorporate this into an object tracking framework. Results on a portion of the ETISEO database show that the proposed algorithm results in improved tracking performance overall, and improved tracking within occlusions.

Managing driver fatigue : education or motivation?

Fatigue has been recognised as the primary contributing factor in approximately 15% of all fatal road crashes in Australia. To develop effective countermeasures for managing fatigue, this study investigates why drivers continue to drive when sleepy, and driver perceptions and behaviours in regards to countermeasures. Based on responses from 305 Australian drivers, it was identified that the major reasons why these participants continued to drive when sleepy were: wanting to get to their destination; being close to home; and time factors. Participants’ perceptions and use of 18 fatigue countermeasures were investigated. It was found that participants perceived the safest strategies, including stopping and sleeping, swapping drivers and stopping for a quick nap, to be the most effective countermeasures. However, it appeared that their knowledge of safe countermeasures did not translate into their use of these strategies. For example, although the drivers perceived stopping for a quick nap to be an effective countermeasure, they reported more frequent use of less safe methods such as stopping to eat or drink and winding down the window. This finding suggests that, while practitioners should continue educating drivers, they may need a greater focus on motivating drivers to implement safe fatigue countermeasures.

Online service delivery models : an international comparison in the public sector

Governments around the world are facing the challenge of responding to increased expectations by their customers with regard to public service delivery. Citizens, for example, expect governments to provide better and more efficient electronic services on the Web in an integrated way. Online portals have become the approach of choice in online service delivery to meet these requirements and become more customer-focussed. This study describes and analyses existing variants of online service delivery models based upon an empirical study and provides valuable insights for researchers and practitioners in government. For this study, we have conducted interviews with senior management representatives from five international governments. Based on our findings, we distinguish three different classes of service delivery models. We describe and characterise each of these models in detail and provide an in-depth discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches.

Differences between in vitro viability and differentiation and in vivo bone-forming efficacy of human mesenchymal stem cells cultured on PCL-TCP scaffolds

Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) possess great therapeutic potential for the treatment of bone disease and fracture non-union. Too often however, in vitro evidence alone of the interaction between hMSCs and the biomaterial of choice is used as justification for continued development of the material into the clinic. Clearly for hMSC-based regenerative medicine to be successful for the treatment of orthopaedic trauma, it is crucial to transplant hMSCs with a suitable carrier that facilitates their survival, optimal proliferation and osteogenic differentiation in vitro and in vivo. This motivated us to evaluate the use of polycaprolactone-20% tricalcium phosphate (PCL-TCP) scaffolds produced by fused deposition modeling for the delivery of hMSCs. When hMSCs were cultured on the PCL-TCP scaffolds and imaged by a combination of phase contrast, scanning electron and confocal laser microscopy, we observed five distinct stages of colonization over a 21-day period that were characterized by cell attachment, spreading, cellular bridging, the formation of a dense cellular mass and the accumulation of a mineralized extracellular matrix when induced with osteogenic stimulants. Having established that PCL-TCP scaffolds are able to support hMSC proliferation and osteogenic differentiation, we next tested the in vivo efficacy of hMSC-loaded PCL-TCP scaffolds in nude rat critical-sized femoral defects. We found that fluorescently labeled hMSCs survived in the defect site for up to 3 weeks post-transplantation. However, only 50% of the femoral defects treated with hMSCs responded favorably as determined by new bone volume. As such, we show that verification of hMSC viability and differentiation in vitro is not sufficient to predict the efficacy of transplanted stem cells to consistently promote bone formation in orthotopic defects in vivo.

An investigation of the relationship between subjective sleep quality, loneliness and mood in an Australian sample: Can daily routine explain the links?

Background: Loneliness and low mood are associated with significant negative health outcomes including poor sleep, but the strength of the evidence underlying these associations varies. There is strong evidence that poor sleep quality and low mood are linked, but only emerging evidence that loneliness and poor sleep are associated. Aims: To independently replicate the finding that loneliness and poor subjective sleep quality are associated and to extend past research by investigating lifestyle regularity as a possible mediator of relationships, since lifestyle regularity has been linked to loneliness and poor sleep. Methods: Using a cross-sectional design, 97 adults completed standardized measures of loneliness, lifestyle regularity, subjective sleep quality and mood. Results: Loneliness was a significant predictor of sleep quality. Lifestyle regularity was not a predictor of, nor associated with, mood, sleep quality or loneliness. Conclusions: This study provides an important independent replication of the association between poor sleep and loneliness. However, the mechanism underlying this link remains unclear. A theoretically plausible mechanism for this link, lifestyle regularity, does not explain the relationship between loneliness and poor sleep. The nexus between loneliness and poor sleep is unlikely to be broken by altering the social rhythm of patients who present with poor sleep and loneliness.

Monitoring and regulatory role of the balanced scorecard in controlling organisational identities

This thesis employs the theoretical fusion of disciplinary knowledge, interlacing an analysis from both functional and interpretive frameworks and applies these paradigms to three concepts—organisational identity, the balanced scorecard performance measurement system, and control. As an applied thesis, this study highlights how particular public sector organisations are using a range of multi-disciplinary forms of knowledge constructed for their needs to achieve practical outcomes. Practical evidence of this study is not bound by a single disciplinary field or the concerns raised by academics about the rigorous application of academic knowledge. The study’s value lies in its ability to explore how current communication and accounting knowledge is being used for practical purposes in organisational life. The main focus of this thesis is on identities in an organisational communication context. In exploring the theoretical and practical challenges, the research questions for this thesis were formulated as: 1. Is it possible to effectively control identities in organisations by the use of an integrated performance measurement system—the balanced scorecard—and if so, how? 2. What is the relationship between identities and an integrated performance measurement system—the balanced scorecard—in the identity construction process? Identities in the organisational context have been extensively discussed in graphic design, corporate communication and marketing, strategic management, organisational behaviour, and social psychology literatures. Corporate identity is the self-presentation of the personality of an organisation (Van Riel, 1995; Van Riel & Balmer, 1997), and organisational identity is the statement of central characteristics described by members (Albert & Whetten, 2003). In this study, identity management is positioned as a strategically complex task, embracing not only logo and name, but also multiple dimensions, levels and facets of organisational life. Responding to the collaborative efforts of researchers and practitioners in identity conceptualisation and methodological approaches, this dissertation argues that analysis can be achieved through the use of an integrated framework of identity products, patternings and processes (Cornelissen, Haslam, & Balmer, 2007), transforming conceptualisations of corporate identity, organisational identity and identification studies. Likewise, the performance measurement literature from the accounting field now emphasises the importance of ‘soft’ non-financial measures in gauging performance—potentially allowing the monitoring and regulation of ‘collective’ identities (Cornelissen et al., 2007). The balanced scorecard (BSC) (Kaplan & Norton, 1996a), as the selected integrated performance measurement system, quantifies organisational performance under the four perspectives of finance, customer, internal process, and learning and growth. Broadening the traditional performance measurement boundary, the BSC transforms how organisations perceived themselves (Vaivio, 2007). The rhetorical and communicative value of the BSC has also been emphasised in organisational self-understanding (Malina, Nørreklit, & Selto, 2007; Malmi, 2001; Norreklit, 2000, 2003). Thus, this study establishes a theoretical connection between the controlling effects of the BSC and organisational identity construction. Common to both literatures, the aspects of control became the focus of this dissertation, as ‘the exercise or act of achieving a goal’ (Tompkins & Cheney, 1985, p. 180). This study explores not only traditional technical and bureaucratic control (Edwards, 1981), but also concertive control (Tompkins & Cheney, 1985), shifting the locus of control to employees who make their own decisions towards desired organisational premises (Simon, 1976). The controlling effects on collective identities are explored through the lens of the rhetorical frames mobilised through the power of organisational enthymemes (Tompkins & Cheney, 1985) and identification processes (Ashforth, Harrison, & Corley, 2008). In operationalising the concept of control, two guiding questions were developed to support the research questions: 1.1 How does the use of the balanced scorecard monitor identities in public sector organisations? 1.2 How does the use of the balanced scorecard regulate identities in public sector organisations? This study adopts qualitative multiple case studies using ethnographic techniques. Data were gathered from interviews of 41 managers, organisational documents, and participant observation from 2003 to 2008, to inform an understanding of organisational practices and members’ perceptions in the five cases of two public sector organisations in Australia. Drawing on the functional and interpretive paradigms, the effective design and use of the systems, as well as the understanding of shared meanings of identities and identifications are simultaneously recognised. The analytical structure guided by the ‘bracketing’ (Lewis & Grimes, 1999) and ‘interplay’ strategies (Schultz & Hatch, 1996) preserved, connected and contrasted the unique findings from the multi-paradigms. The ‘temporal bracketing’ strategy (Langley, 1999) from the process view supports the comparative exploration of the analysis over the periods under study. The findings suggest that the effective use of the BSC can monitor and regulate identity products, patternings and processes. In monitoring identities, the flexible BSC framework allowed the case study organisations to monitor various aspects of finance, customer, improvement and organisational capability that included identity dimensions. Such inclusion legitimises identity management as organisational performance. In regulating identities, the use of the BSC created a mechanism to form collective identities by articulating various perspectives and causal linkages, and through the cascading and alignment of multiple scorecards. The BSC—directly reflecting organisationally valued premises and legitimised symbols—acted as an identity product of communication, visual symbols and behavioural guidance. The selective promotion of the BSC measures filtered organisational focus to shape unique identity multiplicity and characteristics within the cases. Further, the use of the BSC facilitated the assimilation of multiple identities by controlling the direction and strength of identifications, engaging different groups of members. More specifically, the tight authority of the BSC framework and systems are explained both by technical and bureaucratic controls, while subtle communication of organisational premises and information filtering is achieved through concertive control. This study confirms that these macro top-down controls mediated the sensebreaking and sensegiving process of organisational identification, supporting research by Ashforth, Harrison and Corley (2008). This study pays attention to members’ power of self-regulation, filling minor premises of the derived logic of their organisation through the playing out of organisational enthymemes (Tompkins & Cheney, 1985). Members are then encouraged to make their own decisions towards the organisational premises embedded in the BSC, through the micro bottom-up identification processes including: enacting organisationally valued identities; sensemaking; and the construction of identity narratives aligned with those organisationally valued premises. Within the process, the self-referential effect of communication encouraged members to believe the organisational messages embedded in the BSC in transforming collective and individual identities. Therefore, communication through the use of the BSC continued the self-producing of normative performance mechanisms, established meanings of identities, and enabled members’ self-regulation in identity construction. Further, this research establishes the relationship between identity and the use of the BSC in terms of identity multiplicity and attributes. The BSC framework constrained and enabled case study organisations and members to monitor and regulate identity multiplicity across a number of dimensions, levels and facets. The use of the BSC constantly heightened the identity attributes of distinctiveness, relativity, visibility, fluidity and manageability in identity construction over time. Overall, this research explains the reciprocal controlling relationships of multiple structures in organisations to achieve a goal. It bridges the gap among corporate and organisational identity theories by adopting Cornelissen, Haslam and Balmer’s (2007) integrated identity framework, and reduces the gap in understanding between identity and performance measurement studies. Parallel review of the process of monitoring and regulating identities from both literatures synthesised the theoretical strengths of both to conceptualise and operationalise identities. This study extends the discussion on positioning identity, culture, commitment, and image and reputation measures in integrated performance measurement systems as organisational capital. Further, this study applies understanding of the multiple forms of control (Edwards, 1979; Tompkins & Cheney, 1985), emphasising the power of organisational members in identification processes, using the notion of rhetorical organisational enthymemes. This highlights the value of the collaborative theoretical power of identity, communication and performance measurement frameworks. These case studies provide practical insights about the public sector where existing bureaucracy and desired organisational identity directions are competing within a large organisational setting. Further research on personal identity and simple control in organisations that fully cascade the BSC down to individual members would provide enriched data. The extended application of the conceptual framework to other public and private sector organisations with a longitudinal view will also contribute to further theory building.