Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

The Martian Gas-Analytic Package for the Landing Platform Experiments of the ExoMars 2018

The paper describes the architecture of the Martian Gas Analytic Package, which is proposed for the Russian ExoMars Lander 2018.

Temperature Prediction Model for Bone Drilling Based on Density Distribution and In Vivo Experiments for Minimally Invasive Robotic Cochlear Implantation

Surgical robots have been proposed ex vivo to drill precise holes in the temporal bone for minimally invasive cochlear implantation. The main risk of the procedure is damage of the facial nerve due to mechanical interaction or due to temperature elevation during the drilling process. To evaluate the thermal risk of the drilling process, a simplified model is proposed which aims to enable an assessment of risk posed to the facial nerve for a given set of constant process parameters for different mastoid bone densities. The model uses the bone density distribution along the drilling trajectory in the mastoid bone to calculate a time dependent heat production function at the tip of the drill bit. Using a time dependent moving point source Green's function, the heat equation can be solved at a certain point in space so that the resulting temperatures can be calculated over time. The model was calibrated and initially verified with in vivo temperature data. The data was collected in minimally invasive robotic drilling of 12 holes in four different sheep. The sheep were anesthetized and the temperature elevations were measured with a thermocouple which was inserted in a previously drilled hole next to the planned drilling trajectory. Bone density distributions were extracted from pre-operative CT data by averaging Hounsfield values over the drill bit diameter. Post-operative [Formula: see text]CT data was used to verify the drilling accuracy of the trajectories. The comparison of measured and calculated temperatures shows a very good match for both heating and cooling phases. The average prediction error of the maximum temperature was less than 0.7 °C and the average root mean square error was approximately 0.5 °C. To analyze potential thermal damage, the model was used to calculate temperature profiles and cumulative equivalent minutes at 43 °C at a minimal distance to the facial nerve. For the selected drilling parameters, temperature elevation profiles and cumulative equivalent minutes suggest that thermal elevation of this minimally invasive cochlear implantation surgery may pose a risk to the facial nerve, especially in sclerotic or high density mastoid bones. Optimized drilling parameters need to be evaluated and the model could be used for future risk evaluation.

Serial [18F]-fluoromisonidazole PET during radiochemotherapy for locally advanced head and neck cancer and its correlation with outcome.

PURPOSE The aim was to assess changes of tumour hypoxia during primary radiochemotherapy (RCT) for head and neck cancer (HNC) and to evaluate their relationship with treatment outcome. MATERIAL AND METHODS Hypoxia was assessed by FMISO-PET in weeks 0, 2 and 5 of RCT. The tumour volume (TV) was determined using FDG-PET/MRI/CT co-registered images. The level of hypoxia was quantified on FMISO-PET as TBRmax (SUVmaxTV/SUVmean background). The hypoxic subvolume (HSV) was defined as TV that showed FMISO uptake ⩾1.4 times blood pool activity. RESULTS Sixteen consecutive patients (T3-4, N+, M0) were included (mean follow-up 31, median 44months). Mean TBRmax decreased significantly (p<0.05) from 1.94 to 1.57 (week 2) and 1.27 (week 5). Mean HSV in week 2 and week 5 (HSV2=5.8ml, HSV3=0.3ml) were significantly (p<0.05) smaller than at baseline (HSV1=15.8ml). Kaplan-Meier plots of local recurrence free survival stratified at the median TBRmax showed superior local control for less hypoxic tumours, the difference being significant at baseline and after 2weeks (p=0.031, p=0.016). CONCLUSIONS FMISO-PET documented that in most HNC reoxygenation starts early during RCT and is correlated with better outcome.

Towards science-based sediment quality standards-Effects of field-collected sediments in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss).

Sediments can act as long-term sinks for environmental pollutants. Within the past decades, dioxin-like compounds (DLCs) such as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have attracted significant attention in the scientific community. To investigate the time- and concentration-dependent uptake of DLCs and PAHs in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and their associated toxicological effects, we conducted exposure experiments using suspensions of three field-collected sediments from the rivers Rhine and Elbe, which were chosen to represent different contamination levels. Five serial dilutions of contaminated sediments were tested; these originated from the Prossen and Zollelbe sampling sites (both in the river Elbe, Germany) and from Ehrenbreitstein (Rhine, Germany), with lower levels of contamination. Fish were exposed to suspensions of these dilutions under semi-static conditions for 90 days. Analysis of muscle tissue by high resolution gas chromatography and mass spectrometry and of bile liquid by high-performance liquid chromatography showed that particle-bound PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PAHs were readily bioavailable from re-suspended sediments. Uptake of these contaminants and the associated toxicological effects in fish were largely proportional to their sediment concentrations. The changes in the investigated biomarkers closely reflected the different sediment contamination levels: cytochrome P450 1A mRNA expression and 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase activity in fish livers responded immediately and with high sensitivity, while increased frequencies of micronuclei and other nuclear aberrations, as well as histopathological and gross pathological lesions, were strong indicators of the potential long-term effects of re-suspension events. Our study clearly demonstrates that sediment re-suspension can lead to accumulation of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in fish, resulting in potentially adverse toxicological effects. For a sound risk assessment within the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive and related legislation, we propose a strong emphasis on sediment-bound contaminants in the context of integrated river basin management plans.

Dissolution-Precipitation in Porous Media: Experiments and Modelling

The evolution of porosity due to dissolution/precipitation processes of minerals and the associated change of transport parameters are of major interest for natural geological environments and engineered underground structures. We designed a reproducible and fast to conduct 2D experiment, which is flexible enough to investigate several process couplings implemented in the numerical code OpenGeosys-GEM (OGS-GEM). We investigated advective-diffusive transport of solutes, effect of liquid phase density on advective transport, and kinetically controlled dissolution/precipitation reactions causing porosity changes. In addition, the system allowed to investigate the influence of microscopic (pore scale) processes on macroscopic (continuum scale) transport. A Plexiglas tank of dimension 10 × 10 cm was filled with a 1 cm thick reactive layer consisting of a bimodal grain size distribution of celestite (SrSO4) crystals, sandwiched between two layers of sand. A barium chloride solution was injected into the tank causing an asymmetric flow field to develop. As the barium chloride reached the celestite region, dissolution of celestite was initiated and barite precipitated. Due to the higher molar volume of barite, its precipitation caused a porosity decrease and thus also a decrease in the permeability of the porous medium. The change of flow in space and time was observed via injection of conservative tracers and analysis of effluents. In addition, an extensive post-mortem analysis of the reacted medium was conducted. We could successfully model the flow (with and without fluid density effects) and the transport of conservative tracers with a (continuum scale) reactive transport model. The prediction of the reactive experiments initially failed. Only the inclusion of information from post-mortem analysis gave a satisfactory match for the case where the flow field changed due to dissolution/precipitation reactions. We concentrated on the refinement of post-mortem analysis and the investigation of the dissolution/precipitation mechanisms at the pore scale. Our analytical techniques combined scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and synchrotron X-ray micro-diffraction/micro-fluorescence performed at the XAS beamline (Swiss Light Source). The newly formed phases include an epitaxial growth of barite micro-crystals on large celestite crystals (epitaxial growth) and a nano-crystalline barite phase (resulting from the dissolution of small celestite crystals) with residues of celestite crystals in the pore interstices. Classical nucleation theory, using well-established and estimated parameters describing barite precipitation, was applied to explain the mineralogical changes occurring in our system. Our pore scale investigation showed limits of the continuum scale reactive transport model. Although kinetic effects were implemented by fixing two distinct rates for the dissolution of large and small celestite crystals, instantaneous precipitation of barite was assumed as soon as oversaturation occurred. Precipitation kinetics, passivation of large celestite crystals and metastability of supersaturated solutions, i.e. the conditions under which nucleation cannot occur despite high supersaturation, were neglected. These results will be used to develop a pore scale model that describes precipitation and dissolution of crystals at the pore scale for various transport and chemical conditions. Pore scale modelling can be used to parameterize constitutive equations to introduce pore-scale corrections into macroscopic (continuum) reactive transport models. Microscopic understanding of the system is fundamental for modelling from the pore to the continuum scale.

A Model Study of the Circulation in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) and Its Adjacent Coastal Waters: 2. Sensitivity Experiments

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the Pear River Estuary (PRE) and the adjacent coastal waters in the winter and summer seasons. Wong et al. [2003] compares the simulation results with the in situ measurements collected during the Pearl River Estuary Pollution Project (PREPP). In this paper, sensitivity experiments are carried out to examine the plume and the associated frontal dynamics in response to seasonal discharges and monsoon winds. During the winter, convergence between the seaward spreading plume water and the saline coastal water sets up a salinity front that aligns from the northeast to the southwest inside the PRE. During the summer the plume water fills the PRE at the surface and spreads eastward in the coastal waters in response to the prevailing southwesterly monsoon. The overall alignment of the plume is from the northwest to the southeast. The subsurface front is similar to that in the winter and summer except that the summer front is closer to the mouth and the winter front closer to the head of the estuary. Inside the PRE, bottom flows are always toward the head of the estuary, attributed to the density gradient associated with the plume front. In contrast, bottom flows in the shelf change from offshore in winter to onshore in summer, reflecting respectively the wintertime downwelling and summertime upwelling. Wind also plays an essential role in controlling the plume at the surface. An easterly wind drives the plume westward regardless winter or summer. The eastward spreading of the plume during the summer can be attributed to the southerly component of the wind. On the other hand, the surface area of the plume is positively proportional to the amount of discharge.

Zur Frage des siedlungsgenossenschaftlichen Experiments

J. Oettinger

The role of coactivator associated arginine methyltransferase 1 (CARM1) in nuclear receptor mediated transcription

Arginine methylation has been implicated in the regulation of gene expression. The coactivator-associated arginine methyltransferase 1 (CARMI/PRMT4) binds the p160 family of steroid receptor coactivators (SRCs). This association enhances transcriptional activation by nuclear receptors. Here, we generated and characterized CARM1 knockout mice. Embryos with a targeted disruption of CARM1 are 35% smaller in size than the wild-type littermates and die perinatally. We also generated Carm1-/- and Carm1+/+ mouse embryonic fibroblasts and tested gene expression in response to estrogen. Estrogenresponsive gene expression was aberrant in Carm1-/- fibroblasts and embryos, thus emphasizing the role of arginine methylation as a transcription activation tag. We subsequently studied the role of CARM1 in estrogen signaling in viva in the mammary gland. Conditional knockout of CARM1 in mammary gland and Carml-1-embryonic mammary anlagen transplant experiments did not show any defects in growth and development of the glands. To further dissect the role of CARM1 in estrogen receptor mediated transactivation, we performed cDNA microarray and serial analysis of gene expression on Carm1-/- and Carm1+/+ embryos treated with the estrogen analog, DES. Our results indicate global changes in estrogen regulated genes as well as genes involved in lipid homeostasis. Marker genes for Peroxisome Proliferator Activated Receptor γ (PPARγ) activity, adipsin and aP2, are downregulated in the Carm1-/- embryos. Furthermore, OCT frozen sections of 18.5dpc embryos, processed simultaneously for oil red O staining to look for neutral fat, reveals greatly reduced brown fat accumulation in the Carm1-/- embryos in contrast to wild-type and gain-of-function Carm1 transgenic (ubiquitous) embryo. We used a well-established 3T3-L1 preadipocyte cell line to knockdown CARM1 by short hairpin RNA. 3T3-L1 cells with CARM1 knockdown showed greatly reduced potential to differentiate into mature lipid accumulating adipocytes upon administration of adipogenic stimuli. Ligand-dependent activation of reporter genes by the PPARγ receptor showed that PPRE-luciferase reporter activity was enhanced in the presence of CARM1, additionally, luciferase activity was reduced to background levels when enzyme dead CARM1 (CARM1-VLD) was used. Thus, in this study, we have identified novel pathways that use CARM1 as coactivator and showed that CARM1 functions as a key component of PPARγ receptor mediated gene expression. ^

Epidemiologic and methodological issues in serial measurements of blood pressure: The blood pressure study in Mexican children

The Blood Pressure Study in Mexican Children (BPSMC) is a short term longitudinal study of serial blood pressure collected in three observation periods by standardized examinations of 233 female children, 10 to 12 years of age, enrolled in public and private primary schools in Tlalpan, Mexico. Study objectives were: (1) to describe from baseline information the distribution and relationship of blood pressure to age and selected anthropometric factors, as well as to compare the BPSMC results with other blood pressure studies, (2) to examine the sources and amount of variation present in serial blood pressure of 123 children, and (3) to evaluate observer performance by means of intra- and inter-observer variability.^ Stepwise regression results from baseline revealed that of all anthropometric factors and age, weight was the best predictor for blood pressure.^ The results of serial blood pressure measurements show that, besides the known sources of blood pressure variability (subject, day, reading), the physiologic event of menarche has an important bearing upon the variability and characterization of blood pressure in young girls. The assessment of the effects of blood pressure variability and reliability upon the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies, became apparent among post-menarcheal girls; where blood pressure measurements taken from them have low reliability. Research is needed to propose alternatives for assessing blood pressure during puberty.^ Finally, observer performance of blood pressure and anthropometry were evaluated. Anthropometric measurements had reliabilities in excess of R = 0.96. Acceptable reliabilities (R = 0.88 to 0.95) were obtained for systolic and diastolic (phase 4 and 5) blood pressures. The BPSMC showed a 50 percent decrease in measurement error from the first to the third observation periods. ^