Business Cycles and Seasonal Cycles in Bangladesh

The empirical regularities of the Bangladesh business and seasonal cycles are documented in this study. Spectrums, seasonality, volatility, cyclicality, and persistence in the level and variance of macroeconomic variables in Bangladesh are explored using monthly and quarterly macroeconomic series. Most of the features of U.S. and East-Southeast Asian business cycles are common to Bangladeshi business cycles; however, there are some differences. As is seen in the U.S. and European economies, seasonal cycles accentuate the features of business cycles in Bangladesh. To our surprise, the seasonal cycles in Bangladesh embody the features of business cycles in the U.S. and East-Southeast Asian economies more thoroughly than they do the business cycles in Bangladesh.

Seasonal migration and micro-credit in the lean period : evidence from northwest Bangladesh

This paper investigates the relationship between access to micro-credit and temporary seasonal migration, an issue which is largely ignored in the standard rural-urban migration literature. Seasonal migration due to agricultural downturns is a common phenomenon in developing countries. Using primary data from a cross-sectional household survey from the northwest part of Bangladesh, this study quantifies the factors that influence such migration decisions. Among other results, we find that network effects play a significant role in influencing the migration decision, with the presence of kinsmen at the place of destination having considerable impact. Seasonal migration is a natural choice for individual suffering periodic hardship; however the strict weekly loan repayment rules of Micro-credit Institutes can have an adverse effect on this process, reducing the ability of borrowers to react to a shock. Our result suggests that poor individuals prefer the option of not accessing the micro-credit and opt for temporal seasonal migration during the lean period. The results have numerous potential policy implications, including the design of typical micro-credit schemes.

Intra-annual patterns of tracheid size in the Mediterranean tree Juniperus thurifera as an indicator of seasonal water stress

Because climate can affect xylem cell anatomy, series of intra-annual cell anatomical features have the potential to retrospectively supply seasonal climatic information. In this study, we explored the ability to extract information about water stress conditions from tracheid features of the Mediterranean conifer Juniperus thurifera L. Tracheidograms of four climatic years from two drought-sensitive sites in Spain were compared to evaluate whether it is possible to link intra-annual cell size patterns to seasonal climatic conditions. Results indicated site-specific anatomical adjustment such as smaller and thicker tracheids at the dryer site but also showed a strong climatic imprint on the intra-annual pattern of tracheid size. Site differences in cell size reflected expected structural adjustments against cavitation failures. Differences between intra-annual patterns, however, indicated a response to seasonal changes in water availability whereby cells formed under drought conditions were smaller and thicker, and vice versa. This relationship was more manifest and stable at the dryer site

Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

Seasonal Variation of Essential Oil Yield and Composition of Sage (Salvia officinalis L.) Grown in Castilla - La Mancha (Central Spain)

Links between phenology, yield and composition of the essential oil of common sage, Salvia officinalis L., grown in Guadalajara (Central Spain) were determined in the different phases of the biological cycle during one year. Data showed an average yield about 1.0%. The analysis of the oil components was carried out by GC-FID and GC/MS. The main oil constituent was alpha thujone (40.1 - 46.5%). Other identified compounds are beta pinene (2.6 - 4.5%), cineole (3.5 - 8.7%), beta thujone (4.1 - 5.6%), camphor (4.1 - 8.0%), borneol (1.3 - 3.7%), alpha humulene (3.8 - 7.3%), viridiflorol (3.4-12.6%) and manool (0.1-4.5%). The highest yield of oil was obtained in the period of full flowering and the highest concentration of alpha thujone in the period of initial flowering.

Seasonal evolution of soil respiration in a mixed forestry plantation of walnuts (Juglans × intermedia Carr.) and alders (Alnus cordata (Loisel.) Duby) in Domaine de Restinclières (France)

The ecological intensification of crops is proposed as a solution to the growing demand of agricultural and forest resources, in opposition to intensive monocultures. The introduction of mixed cultures as mixtures between nitrogen fixing species and non nitrogen fixing species intended to increase crop yield as a result of an improvement of the available nitrogen and phosphorus in soil. Relationship between crops have received little attention despite the wide range of advantages that confers species diversity to these systems, such as increased productivity, resilience to disruption and ecological sustainability. Forests and forestry plantations can develop an important role in storing carbon in their tissues, especially in wood which become into durable product. A simplifying parameter to analyze the amount allocated carbon by plantation is the TBCA (total belowground carbon allocation), whereby, for short periods and mature plantations, is admitted as the subtraction between soil carbon efflux and litterfall. Soil respiration depends on a wide range of factors, such as soil temperature and soil water content, soil fertility, presence and type of vegetation, among others. The studied orchard is a mixed forestry plantation of hybrid walnuts(Juglans × intermedia Carr.) for wood and alders (Alnus cordata (Loisel.) Duby.), a nitrogen fixing specie through the actinomycete Frankia alni ((Woronin, 1866) Von Tubeuf 1895). The study area is sited at Restinclières, a green area near Montpellier (South of France). In the present work, soil respiration varied greatly throughout the year, mainly influenced by soil temperature. Soil water content did not significantly influence the response of soil respiration as it was constant during the measurement period and under no water stress conditions. Distance between nearest walnut and measurement was also a highly influential factor in soil respiration. Generally there was a decreasing trend in soil respiration when the distance to the nearest tree increased. It was also analyzed the response of soil respiration according to alder presence and fertilizer management (50 kg N·ha-1·año-1 from 1999 to 2010). None of these treatments significantly influenced soil respiration, although previous studies noticed an inhibition in rates of soil respiration under fertilized conditions and high rates of available nitrogen. However, treatments without fertilization and without alder presence obtained higher respiration rates in those cases with significant differences. The lack of significant differences between treatments may be due to the high coefficient of variation experienced by soil respiration measurements. Finally an asynchronous fluctuation was observed between soil respiration and litterfall during senescence period. This is possibly due to the slowdown in the emission of exudates by roots during senescence period, which are largely related to microbial activity.

Regional and seasonal patterns of litterfall in tropical South America

The production of aboveground soft tissue represents an important share of total net primary production in tropical rain forests. Here we draw from a large number of published and unpublished datasets (n = 81 sites) to assess the determinants of litterfall variation across South American tropical forests. We show that across old-growth tropical rainforests, litterfall averages 8.61±1.91Mgha?1 yr?1 (mean±standard deviation, in dry mass units). Secondary forests have a lower annual litterfall than old-growth tropical forests with a mean of 8.01±3.41Mgha?1 yr?1. Annual litterfall shows no significant variation with total annual rainfall, either globally or within forest types. It does not vary consistently with soil type, except in the poorest soils (white sand soils), where litterfall is significantly lower than in other soil types (5.42±1.91Mgha?1 yr?1). We also study the determinants of litterfall seasonality, and find that it does not depend on annual rainfall or on soil type. However, litterfall seasonality is significantly positively correlated with rainfall seasonality. Finally, we assess how much carbon is stored in reproductive organs relative to photosynthetic organs. Mean leaf fall is 5.74±1.83Mgha?1 yr?1 (71% of total litterfall). Mean allocation into reproductive organs is 0.69±0.40Mgha?1 yr?1 (9% of total litterfall). The investment into reproductive organs divided by leaf litterfall increases with soil fertility, suggesting that on poor soils, the allocation to photosynthetic organs is prioritized over that to reproduction. Finally, we discuss the ecological and biogeochemical implications of these results.

Topical antihistamines and mast cell stabilisers for treating seasonal and perennial allergic conjunctivitis

Peer reviewed

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (high-top') and models that do not (low-top'). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (December-March) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) and how they relate to predictive skill on intraseasonal to seasonal time-scales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

Ecological gradients and landscape structure affecting seasonal woodpigeon Columba palumbus densities in a coastal region (South-East Spain)

The aim of the present study is to identify and evaluate the relationship between Woodpigeon (Columba palumbus, Linnaeus, 1758) density and different environmental gradients (thermotype, ombrotype, continentality and latitudinal), land use and landscape structure, using geographic information systems and multivariate modelling. Transects (n = 396) were developed to estimate the density of Woodpigeon in the Marina Baja (Alicante, Spain) from 2006 to 2008. The highestdensity for Woodpigeon was in September-October (1.28birds/10ha) and the lowest inFebruary-March (0.34birds/10ha). Moreover, there were more Woodpigeons in areas with a mesomediterranean thermotypethan in thermomediterranean or supramediterranean ones. There was greater densityinthe intermediate zones compared to thecoast and interior. The natural or cultural landscape had the highest Woodpigeon density (1.53birds/10ha), with both denseand clear pine forest values standing out. Therefore, it is very important to conserve these traditional landscapes with adequate management strategies in order to maintain, resident and transient Woodpigeon populations. These natural areas are open places where the Woodpigeons find food and detect the presence ofpredators. Thus, this study will enable more precise knowledge of the ecological factors (habitat variables) that intervene in the distribution of Woodpigeon populations and their density.