Seasonal Analyses of Air Pollution and Mortality in 100 U.S. Cities

Time series models relating short-term changes in air pollution levels to daily mortality counts typically assume that the effects of air pollution on the log relative rate of mortality do not vary with time. However, these short-term effects might plausibly vary by season. Changes in the sources of air pollution and meteorology can result in changes in characteristics of the air pollution mixture across seasons. The authors develop Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical models for estimating time-varying effects of pollution on mortality in multi-site time series studies. The methods are applied to the updated National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study database for the period 1987--2000, which includes data for 100 U.S. cities. At the national level, a 10 micro-gram/m3 increase in PM(10) at lag 1 is associated with a 0.15 (95% posterior interval: -0.08, 0.39),0.14 (-0.14, 0.42), 0.36 (0.11, 0.61), and 0.14 (-0.06, 0.34) percent increase in mortality for winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. An analysis by geographical regions finds a strong seasonal pattern in the northeast (with a peak in summer) and little seasonal variation in the southern regions of the country. These results provide useful information for understanding particle toxicity and guiding future analyses of particle constituent data.

Wolf habitat selection at the territory level : seasonal and interannual variation and influence on reproductive success

Habitat selection has been one of the main research topics in ecology for decades. Nevertheless, many aspects of habitat selection still need to be explored. In particular, previous studies have overlooked the importance of temporal variation in habitat selection and the value of including data on reproductive success in order to describe the best quality habitat for a species. We used data collected from radiocollared wolves in Yellowstone National Park (USA), between 1996 and 2008, to describe wolf habitat selection. In particular, we aimed to identify i) seasonal differences in wolf habitat selection, ii) factors influencing interannual variation in habitat selection, and iii) the effect of habitat selection on wolf reproductive success. We used probability density functions to describe wolf habitat use and habitat coverages to represent the habitat available to wolves. We used regression analysis to connect habitat use with habitat characteristics and habitat selection with reproductive success. Our most relevant result was discovering strong interannual variability in wolf habitat selection. This variability was in part explained by pack identity and differences in litter size and leadership of a pack between two years (summer) and in pack size and precipitation (winter). We also detected some seasonal differences. Wolves selected open habitats, intermediate elevations, intermediate distances from roads, and avoided steep slopes in late winter. They selected areas close to roads and avoided steep slopes in summer. In early winter, wolves selected wetlands, herbaceous and shrub vegetation types, and areas at intermediate elevation and distance from roads. Surprisingly, the habitat characteristics selected by wolves were not useful in predicting reproductive success. We hypothesize that interannual variability in wolf habitat selection may be too strong to detect effects on reproductive success. Moreover, prey availability and competitor pressure may also have an influence on wolf reproductive success, which we did not assess. This project demonstrated how important temporal variation is in shaping patterns of habitat selection. We still believe in the value of running long-term studies, but the effect of temporal variation should always be taken into account.

Analysis of atmospheric transport and the effects of seasonal and interannual transport variability on measurements made at the Pico Mountain observatory

A non-hierarchical K-means algorithm is used to cluster 47 years (1960–2006) of 10-day HYSPLIT backward trajectories to the Pico Mountain (PM) observatory on a seasonal basis. The resulting cluster centers identify the major transport pathways and collectively comprise a long-term climatology of transport to the observatory. The transport climatology improves our ability to interpret the observations made there and our understanding of pollution source regions to the station and the central North Atlantic region. I determine which pathways dominate transport to the observatory and examine the impacts of these transport patterns on the O3, NOy, NOx, and CO measurements made there during 2001–2006. Transport from the U.S., Canada, and the Atlantic most frequently reaches the station, but Europe, east Africa, and the Pacific can also contribute significantly depending on the season. Transport from Canada was correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in spring and winter, and transport from the Pacific was uncorrelated with the NAO. The highest CO and O3 are observed during spring. Summer is also characterized by high CO and O3 and the highest NOy and NOx of any season. Previous studies at the station attributed the summer time high CO and O3 to transport of boreal wildfire emissions (for 2002–2004), and boreal fires continued to affect the station during 2005 and 2006. The particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to calculate anthropogenic and biomass-burning CO tracer values at the station in an attempt to identify the regions responsible for the high CO and O3 observations during spring and biomass-burning impacts in summer.

Lava discharge rate estimates from thermal infrared satellite data at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala

Time-averaged discharge rates (TADR) were calculated for five lava flows at Pacaya Volcano (Guatemala), using an adapted version of a previously developed satellite-based model. Imagery acquired during periods of effusive activity between the years 2000 and 2010 were obtained from two sensors of differing temporal and spatial resolutions; the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Imager. A total of 2873 MODIS and 2642 GOES images were searched manually for volcanic “hot spots”. It was found that MODIS imagery, with superior spatial resolution, produced better results than GOES imagery, so only MODIS data were used for quantitative analyses. Spectral radiances were transformed into TADR via two methods; first, by best-fitting some of the parameters (i.e. density, vesicularity, crystal content, temperature change) of the TADR estimation model to match flow volumes previously estimated from ground surveys and aerial photographs, and second by measuring those parameters from lava samples to make independent estimates. A relatively stable relationship was defined using the second method, which suggests the possibility of estimating lava discharge rates in near-real-time during future volcanic crises at Pacaya.

EFFECT OF ELECTRICAL DISCHARGE PATTERN ON SPARK IGNITED FLAME KERNEL DEVELOPMENT

Fuel-lean combustion and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) in spark ignition engines improve engine efficiency and reduce emission. However, flame initiation becomes more difficult in lean and dilute fuel-air mixture with traditional spark discharge. This research proposal will first provide an intensive review on topics related to spark ignition including properties of electrical discharge, flame kernel behavior and spark ignition modeling and simulation. Focus will be laid on electrical discharge pattern effect as it is showing prospect in extending ignition limits in SI engines. An experimental setup has been built with an optically accessible constant volume combustion vessel. Multiple imaging techniques as well as spectroscopy will be applied. By varying spark discharge patterns, preliminary test results are available on consequent flame kernel development. In addition to experimental investigation of spark plasma and flame kernel development, spark ignition modeling with detailed description of plasma channel is also proposed for this study.

Spindle burst like spike discharge oscillations in organotypic cultures of neonatal rat cortex

Early network oscillations and spindle bursts are typical patterns of spontaneous rhythmic activity in cortical networks of neonatal rodents in vivo and in vitro. The latter can also be triggered in vivo by stimulation of afferent inputs. The mechanisms underlying such oscillations undergo profound developmental changes in the first postnatal weeks. Their possible role in cortical development is postulated but not known in detail. We have studied spontaneous and evoked patterns of activity in organotypic cultures of slices from neonatal rat cortex grown on multielectrode arrays (MEAs) for extracellular single- and multi-unit recording. Episodes of spontaneous spike discharge oscillations at 7 - 25 Hz lasting for 0.6 - 3 seconds appeared in about half of these cultures spontaneously and could be triggered by electrical stimulation of few distinct electrodes. These oscillations usually covered only restricted areas of the slices. Besides oscillations, single population bursts that spread in a wavelike manner over the whole slice also appeared spontaneously and were triggered by electrical stimulation. In most but not all cultures, population bursts preceded the oscillations. Both population bursts and spike discharge oscillations required intact glutamatergic synaptic transmission since they were suppressed by the AMPA/kainate glutamate receptor antagonist CNQX. The NMDA antagonist d-APV suppressed the oscillations but not the population bursts, suggesting an involvement of NMDA receptors in the oscillations. These findings show that spindle burst like cortical rhythms are reproduced in organotypic cultures of neonatal cortex. The culture model thus allows investigating the role of such rhythms in cortical circuit formation. Supported by SNF grant No. 3100A0-107641/1.

COMBUSTION INITIATION BY ELECTRICAL-DISCHARGE-INDUCED PLASMA IN LEAN AND DILUTE METHANE-AIR MIXTURE: EXPERIMENTAL AND MODELING INVESTIGATION

This dissertation represents experimental and numerical investigations of combustion initiation trigged by electrical-discharge-induced plasma within lean and dilute methane air mixture. This research topic is of interest due to its potential to further promote the understanding and prediction of spark ignition quality in high efficiency gasoline engines, which operate with lean and dilute fuel-air mixture. It is specified in this dissertation that the plasma to flame transition is the key process during the spark ignition event, yet it is also the most complicated and least understood procedure. Therefore the investigation is focused on the overlapped periods when plasma and flame both exists in the system. Experimental study is divided into two parts. Experiments in Part I focuses on the flame kernel resulting from the electrical discharge. A number of external factors are found to affect the growth of the flame kernel, resulting in complex correlations between discharge and flame kernel. Heat loss from the flame kernel to code ambient is found to be a dominant factor that quenches the flame kernel. Another experimental focus is on the plasma channel. Electrical discharges into gases induce intense and highly transient plasma. Detailed observation of the size and contents of the discharge-induced plasma channel is performed. Given the complex correlation and the multi-discipline physical/chemical processes involved in the plasma-flame transition, the modeling principle is taken to reproduce detailed transitions numerically with minimum analytical assumptions. Detailed measurement obtained from experimental work facilitates the more accurate description of initial reaction conditions. The novel and unique spark source considering both energy and species deposition is defined in a justified manner, which is the key feature of this Ignition by Plasma (IBP) model. The results of numerical simulation are intuitive and the potential of numerical simulation to better resolve the complex spark ignition mechanism is presented. Meanwhile, imperfections of the IBP model and numerical simulation have been specified and will address future attentions.

SPRING DISCHARGE MONITORING IN LOW-RESOURCE SETTINGS: A CASE STUDY OF CONCEPCIÓN CHIQUIRICHAPA, GUATEMALA

Water springs are the principal source of water for many localities in Central America, including the municipality of Concepción Chiquirichapa in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. Long-term monitoring records are critical for informed water management as well as resource forecasting, though data are scarce and monitoring in low-resource settings presents special challenges. Spring discharge was monitored monthly in six municipal springs during the author’s Peace Corps assignment, from May 2011 to March 2012, and water level height was monitored in two spring boxes over the same time period using automated water-level loggers. The intention of this approach was to circumvent the need for frequent and time-intensive manual measurement by identifying a fixed relationship between discharge and water level. No such relationship was identified, but the water level record reveals that spring yield increased for four months following Tropical Depression 12E in October 2011. This suggests that the relationship between extreme precipitation events and long-term water spring yields in Concepción should be examined further. These limited discharge data also indicate that aquifer baseflow recession and catchment water balance could be successfully characterized if a long-term discharge record were established. This study also presents technical and social considerations for selecting a methodology for spring discharge measurement and highlights the importance of local interest in conducting successful community-based research in intercultural low-resource settings.

Effect of discharge desynchronization on the size of motor evoked potentials: an analysis

OBJECTIVE: Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) after transcranial magnetic brain stimulation (TMS) are smaller than CMAPs after peripheral nerve stimulation, because desynchronization of the TMS-induced motor neurone discharges occurs (i.e. MEP desynchronization). This desynchronization effect can be eliminated by use of the triple stimulation technique (TST; Brain 121 (1998) 437). The objective of this paper is to study the effect of discharge desynchronization on MEPs by comparing the size of MEP and TST responses. METHODS: MEP and TST responses were obtained in 10 healthy subjects during isometric contractions of the abductor digiti minimi, during voluntary background contractions between 0% and 20% of maximal force, and using 3 different stimulus intensities. Additional data from other normals and from multiple sclerosis (MS) patients were obtained from previous studies. RESULTS: MEPs were smaller than TST responses in all subjects and under all stimulating conditions, confirming the marked influence of desynchronization on MEPs. There was a linear relation between the amplitudes of MEPs vs. TST responses, independent of the degree of voluntary contraction and stimulus intensity. The slope of the regression equation was 0.66 on average, indicating that desynchronization reduced the MEP amplitude on average by one third, with marked inter-individual variations. A similar average proportion was found in MS patients. CONCLUSIONS: The MEP size reduction induced by desynchronization is not influenced by the intensity of TMS and by the level of facilitatory voluntary background contractions. It is similar in healthy subjects and in MS patients, in whom increased desynchronization of central conduction was previously suggested to occur. Thus, the MEP size reduction observed may not parallel the actual amount of desynchronization.

Lack of extended venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in high-risk patients undergoing major orthopaedic or major cancer surgery. Electronic Assessment of VTE Prophylaxis in High-Risk Surgical Patients at Discharge from Swiss Hospitals (ESSENTIAL)

Extended pharmacological venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis beyond discharge is recommended for patients undergoing high-risk surgery. We prospectively investigated prophylaxis in 1,046 consecutive patients undergoing major orthopaedic (70%) or major cancer surgery (30%) in 14 Swiss hospitals. Appropriate in-hospital prophylaxis was used in 1,003 (96%) patients. At discharge, 638 (61%) patients received prescription for extended pharmacological prophylaxis: 564 (77%) after orthopaedic surgery, and 74 (23%) after cancer surgery (p < 0.001). Patients with knee replacement (94%), hip replacement (81%), major trauma (80%), and curative arthroscopy (73%) had the highest prescription rates for extended VTE prophylaxis; the lowest rates were found in patients undergoing major surgery for thoracic (7%), gastrointestinal (19%), and hepatobiliary (33%) cancer. The median duration of prescribed extended prophylaxis was longer in patients with orthopaedic surgery (32 days, interquartile range 14-40 days) than in patients with cancer surgery (23 days, interquartile range 11-30 days; p<0.001). Among the 278 patients with an extended prophylaxis order after hip replacement, knee replacement, or hip fracture surgery, 120 (43%) received a prescription for at least 35 days, and among the 74 patients with an extended prophylaxis order after major cancer surgery, 20 (27%) received a prescription for at least 28 days. In conclusion, approximately one quarter of the patients with major orthopaedic surgery and more than three quarters of the patients with major cancer surgery did not receive prescription for extended VTE prophylaxis. Future effort should focus on the improvement of extended VTE prophylaxis, particularly in patients undergoing major cancer surgery.