Die Gefangene Gottes : Roman

von Schalom Asch. Dt. von Siegfried Schmitz

Di šṭrafe : iber den gebrochenen šwur oder kampf tzwišen religion und wisen ; ein heksṭ inṭeresanṭer roman

ferfast fon Šulman. Iberzetzṭ und bearbeiṭeṭ fon Jiśroel Margaliot

Dokṭor Alfasi : ein heksṭ inṭeresanṭer roman

bearbeiṭeṭ fon Jiśroel Margaliot

Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Blonzende šṭeren : a roman in 2 ṭeil ; 1. ṭeil: akṭioren

Digitalisat der Ausg. Warša, 1913

Blonzende šṭeren : a roman in 2 ṭeil ; 2. ṭeil: Naʿ we-nad

Digitalisat der Ausg. Warša, 1914

Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Mirṭala : roman

Eliza Orzšeško. Fun original iberzetzṭ durch E. N. Frenk

Der gibor in qeiṭen : roman

Wikṭor Hugo

Frailein muṭer : roman

Ernsṭ Georgi.

In šṭurm : roman

L. Lewanda. Iberzetzṭ fun Lipman Lewin

Ms. lat. qu. 65 - Le Roman de la Rose

Vorbesitzer: du Roullet