Road safety in Singapore

Singapore is a highly developed country that has a well connected island-wide road transport system including a network of expressways. The road standards of Singapore are generally good and road safety level is very high by international standards. This chapter discusses road safety status in Singapore and highlights the practices that have been undertaken to enhance the road safety. Statistics show that road traffic fatalities were decreasing over the years, albeit an increasing trend for total crashes. Motorcyclists and pedestrians were two vulnerable road user groups and shared significant proportions respectively about 49% and 28% of total road traffic deaths. In particular, young riders and pedestrians had a higher crash potential. To enhance safety of those vulnerable road users, Singapore has taken several initiatives including infrastructure improvements like paving better skid-resistant materials at crash-prone sites, providing more rain shelters for motorcyclists, and installation of reflective signs and markings near school zones; safety campaigns and awareness programs like ride safe programme, the road courtesy campaign, and the anti-drink drive campaign. While Land Transport Authority (LTA) looks into road safety through engineering solutions and road infrastructure developments, the Traffic Police of Singapore is responsible for law enforcements and regulations. A number of non-government organizations, private companies, and university research groups are also continuously working with the Traffic Police to study, promote, and educate the general public on road safety matters.

An estimate of road accident costs in Singapore

An earlier study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) showed that the annual cost of road traffic accidents in 2001 was S$699.36 million which was 0.5% of the annual GDP. This paper attempts to update of the cost estimates of road traffic accidents. More precise methods of computing the human cost, lost output and property damage are adopted which grew in an annual cost of S$610.3 million or 0.338% of the annual GDP in 2003. A more conservative estimate of S$878,000 for fatal accident is also obtained, compared to the earlier figure of S$1.4 million. This study has shown that it is necessary to update the annual traffic accident costs regularly, as the figures vary with the number of accidents which change with time.

Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.