On the solution of first excursion problems by simulation with applications to probabilistic seismic performance assessment

In a probabilistic assessment of the performance of structures subjected to uncertain environmental loads such as earthquakes, an important problem is to determine the probability that the structural response exceeds some specified limits within a given duration of interest. This problem is known as the first excursion problem, and it has been a challenging problem in the theory of stochastic dynamics and reliability analysis. In spite of the enormous amount of attention the problem has received, there is no procedure available for its general solution, especially for engineering problems of interest where the complexity of the system is large and the failure probability is small.

The application of simulation methods to solving the first excursion problem is investigated in this dissertation, with the objective of assessing the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitations modeled by stochastic processes. From a simulation perspective, the major difficulty in the first excursion problem comes from the large number of uncertain parameters often encountered in the stochastic description of the excitation. Existing simulation tools are examined, with special regard to their applicability in problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. Two efficient simulation methods are developed to solve the first excursion problem. The first method is developed specifically for linear dynamical systems, and it is found to be extremely efficient compared to existing techniques. The second method is more robust to the type of problem, and it is applicable to general dynamical systems. It is efficient for estimating small failure probabilities because the computational effort grows at a much slower rate with decreasing failure probability than standard Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation methods are applied to assess the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitation. Failure analysis is also carried out using the samples generated during simulation, which provide insight into the probable scenarios that will occur given that a structure fails.

IPCC WGII Fifth Assessment Report (AR5): Expanding the solution space for adaptation

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An assessment of post-plague reintroduced native white-clawed crayfish, a Ustropotamobius pallipes, in the Sherston Avon and Tetbury Avon, Wiltshire

This article reports on the success of reintroducing native crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) in the Sherston and Tetbury Avon, following extinction of the population from crayfish plague. The authors describe and review the survey methods that were used and identify a survey technique that was found to be the most rapid and robust for monitoring crayfish populations. Such a survey technique could be adopted as a standard method.

Análise da contaminação das águas do córrego São Lourenço (Nova Friburgo, RJ) por agrotóxicos organofosforados e carbamatos

O córrego de São Lourenço (Nova Friburgo RJ), situado na principal região agrícola do estado, representa um importante manancial hídrico do município de Nova Friburgo que percorre um vale onde se concentram as principais lavouras responsáveis pela produção de olerícolas do Estado. Esta localidade apresenta expressiva relação de consumo de agrotóxicos por trabalhador (56 kg/trabalhador/ano). Assim, este córrego recebe todos os resíduos provenientes das lavouras situadas em suas margens. As águas desse córrego são usadas após tratamento pela população residente na área metropolitana e, são usadas sem tratamento pela população residente em suas margens. Este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar a contaminação das águas desse córrego por agrotóxicos anticolinesterásicos. Amostras de água foram coletadas mensalmente de abril/07 a fevereiro/08, em seis pontos do Córrego São Lourenço e em um ponto do Córrego das Paixões. Foram utilizadas garrafas previamente rinsadas com metanol e enxaguadas várias vezes com água destilada. A avaliação dos níveis de pesticidas se deu por método enzimático descrito por Cunha Bastos et al (1991) e pela etapa de concentração e extração dos pesticidas em coluna de carvão ativado foi adaptada a partir do método descrito por Kaipper et al. (2001), que possui a vantagem de ser um teste rápido de avaliação inicial e de baixo custo. Como controle negativo foi usado águas coletadas no ponto um, situado em área de floresta, sem terras cultivadas ao redor. Foram geradas 72 amostras, onde 33 apresentaram indícios de contaminação, mas apenas uma atingiu o limite de detecção do método, 5 ppb, em maio/07. Estes resultados, principalmente os obtidos nos pontos localizados na parte final do córrego São Lourenço, sugerem, além da utilização recente de agrotóxicos, a importância de fatores climatológicos e do regime do uso de tais compostos possivelmente interferindo na detecção dos resíduos em questão

Alveolar nitric oxide and its role in pediatric asthma control assessment

Resumen Background: Nitric oxide can be measured at multiple flow rates to determine proximal (maximum airway nitric oxide flux; Jaw(NO)) and distal inflammation (alveolar nitric oxide concentration; CA(NO)). The main aim was to study the association among symptoms, lung function, proximal (maximum airway nitric oxide flux) and distal (alveolar nitric oxide concentration) airway inflammation in asthmatic children treated and not treated with inhaled glucocorticoids. Methods: A cross-sectional study with prospective data collection was carried out in a consecutive sample of girls and boys aged between 6 and 16 years with a medical diagnosis of asthma. Maximum airway nitric oxide flux and alveolar nitric oxide concentration were calculated according to the two-compartment model. In asthmatic patients, the asthma control questionnaire (CAN) was completed and forced spirometry was performed. In controls, differences between the sexes in alveolar nitric oxide concentration and maximum airway nitric oxide flux and their correlation with height were studied. The correlation among the fraction of exhaled NO at 50 ml/s (FENO50), CA(NO), Jaw(NO), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and the CAN questionnaire was measured and the degree of agreement regarding asthma control assessment was studied using Cohen's kappa. Results: We studied 162 children; 49 healthy (group 1), 23 asthmatic participants without treatment (group 2) and 80 asthmatic patients treated with inhaled corticosteroids (group 3). CA(NO) (ppb) was 2.2 (0.1-4.5), 3 (0.2-9.2) and 2.45 (0.1-24), respectively. Jaw(NO) (pl/s) was 516 (98.3-1470), 2356.67 (120-6110) and 1426 (156-11805), respectively. There was a strong association (r = 0.97) between FENO50 and Jaw(NO) and the degree of agreement was very good in group 2 and was good in group 3. There was no agreement or only slight agreement between the measures used to monitor asthma control (FEV1, CAN questionnaire, CA(NO) and Jaw(NO)). Conclusions: The results for CA(NO) and Jaw(NO) in controls were similar to those found in other reports. There was no agreement or only slight agreement among the three measure instruments analyzed to assess asthma control. In our sample, no additional information was provided by CA(NO) and Jaw(NO).

A working guide to the assessment, implementation and post project monitoring of fisheries habitat improvement schemes in South Cumbria

Due to changes in land use over the last century, the physical nature of many streams and rivers in the British Isles has probably changed. In some cases this change may be large for example as a result of flood defence schemes and is easily observed, whilst in other cases altered land use, farming, forestry or urbanization may have resulted in more subtle changes to river features. This working guide draws together a way of assessing habitat in any stream or river and determine sites or reaches on the assessed watercourse that may benefit from habitat improvement schemes. It will determine a method of measuring existing habitat in a broad sense, whilst referring to R and D studies currently being undertaken in this area. A method of prioritising any proposed habitat restoration work will be suggested. The limitations of fisheries improvement schemes in terms of cross functional acceptance (flood defence and conservation) will be examined along with suggested proposals for some example watercourses. The need for pre and post enhancement monitoring will be discussed as will the requirement for maintenance programs on schemes. Finally methods for determining the cost benefits of small schemes will be examined, compared to other currently used enhancement strategies. This will allow small scale revenue schemes to be used to back up pre project cost benefit analysis as required in future capital submissions.

Advances in methods for determining fecundity: application of the new methods to some marine fishes

Estimation of individual egg production (realized fecundity) is a key step either to understand the stock and recruit relationship or to carry out fisheries-independent assessment of spawning stock biomass using egg production methods. Many fish are highly fecund and their ovaries may weigh over a kilogram; therefore the work time can be consuming and require large quantities of toxic fixative. Recently it has been shown for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) that image analysis can automate fecundity determination using a power equation that links follicles per gram ovary to the mean vitellogenic follicular diameter (the autodiametric method). In this article we demonstrate the precision of the autodiametric method applied to a range of species with different spawning strategies during maturation and spawning. A new method using a solid displacement pipette to remove quantitative fecundity samples (25, 50, 100, and 200 milligram [mg]) is evaluated, as are the underlying assumptions to effectively fix and subsample the ovary. Finally, we demonstrate the interpretation of dispersed formaldehyde-fixed ovarian samples (whole mounts) to assess the presence of atretic and postovulatory follicles to replace labor intensive histology. These results can be used to estimate down regulation (production of atretic follicles) of fecundity during maturation.

Application of two methods for determining diet of northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus)

Examination of hard parts recovered from scats (feces) is currently the most common method for determining the diet of pinnipeds. However, large or sharp prey remains may be spewed (regurgitated) biasing prey composition and size estimations in diet studies based on scats. Percent frequency of occurrence (FO%) and age or size of selected prey remains recovered from northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) scat (n=3444) and spew samples (n=267) collected from rookeries on St. George Island and St. Paul Island, Alaska, between 1990 and 2000 were compared to determine if a bias in prey composition and age or size estimations existed between scats and spews. Overall prey composition was similar between sample type and location, but the relative FO% of primary prey (≥5%) varied by sample type and location. Age or size estimates of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and of two species of gonatid squids (Gonatopsis borealis and Berryteuthis magister) were significantly larger in spews than in scats. Observed differences in FO% and estimated age or size of prey species whose remains were found in scats and spews likely result from size-selective digestion of prey remains. Scats were biased toward smaller prey remains, whereas spews were biased toward larger prey remains and cephalopod beaks. The percent overlap between age classes of walleye pollock caught by the commercial trawl fishery and age classes of walleye pollock consumed by northern fur seals varied noticeably between sample types for both islands (scats: St. George=15. 5%; St. Paul=4.1%; spews: St. George=94.6%; St. Paul=89.6%). These results demonstrate that the inclusion of multiple sampling methods allows for a more accurate assessment of northern fur seal prey occurrence and prey age and size.

Assessment of the impact of aquatic resources research by ICLARM: scope and methodologies

The importance of quantifying the economic returns to investments in aquatic resources research together with the social, environmental and institutional impacts of such investments is widely recognized among ICLARM's donors, trustees and beneficiaries. As with other Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) centers, ICLARM is being asked to provide specific accounts of the outputs of its research and their impact on farms and on fisheries, including their socioeconomic impact. Such impact information has become a necessary, though not sufficient, basis for setting priorities and allocating resources for research for the CGIAR centers. This paper discusses the types and methods of impact assessment relevant to ICLARM's work. A three-pronged assessment approach is envisaged to capture the full range of impacts: 1) ex ante assessment for research priority setting; 2) assessment prior to dissemination or adoption along with monitoring and evaluation; and 3) ex post impact assessment. It also discusses the objectives and scope for operational impact assessment of ICLARM's research.

Biochemical biomarkers in samples processed by different methods in Environmental Specimen Banks

In the last decades the creation of new Environmental Specimen Banks (ESB) is increasing due to the necessity of knowing the effects of pollutants in both the environment and human populations. ESBs analyze and store samples in order to understand the effects of chemicals, emerging substances and the environmental changes in biota. For a correct analysis of the effect induced by these variables, there is a need to add biological endpoints, such as biomarkers, to the endpoints based on chemical approaches which have being used until now. It is essential to adapt ESB´s sampling strategies in order to enable scientists to apply new biological methods. The present study was performed to obtain biochemical endpoints from samples stored in the BBEBB (Biscay Bay Environmental Biospecimen Bank) of the Marine Station of Plentzia (PIE - UPV/EHU). The main objective of the present work was to study the variability caused in biochemical biomarkers by different processing methods in mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) from two localities (Plentzia and Arriluze) with different pollution history. It can be concluded that the selected biomarkers (glutathione S-transferase and acetylcholinesterase) can be accurately measured in samples stored for years in the ESBs. The results also allowed the discrimination of both sampling sites. However, in a further step, the threshold levels and baseline values should be characterized for a correct interpretation of the results in relation to the assessment of the ecosystem health status.

The assessment and exploitation of eel (ANGUILLA ANGUILLA. L) stocks in the River Thames and its catchment.

This is the assessment and exploitation of eel (Anguilla anguilla. L) stocks in the River Thames and its catchment performed by the Polytechnic of Central London and The Thames Water Authority Research Project between April 1985 and April 1986. The report makes an examination of the pre-pollution history of the Thames eel fishing industry to permit an assessment of the recovery of the eel stock following the cleaning up of the Tideway. Archive material shows that the 19th Century stock was larger and more widely distributed than it is today, and the natural recruitment of elvers to the system is now much smaller. Sampling of commercial catches and trapping studies, including comparisons of different mesh sizes, have been undertaken in order to develop a statistical model of the Inner Estuary eel stock and its fishery. Local migrations and activity throughout the year are studied. Electro—fishing methods and eel traps are compared using mark-recapture techniques in order to develop an accurate means of assessing relative abundance and distribution. Work so far has concentrated mainly on the Rivers Darent and Roding but a preliminary distribution map for the whole catchment has been prepared. An experimental trapping site was established on the River Darent to investigate natural recruitment and up—river migration of elvers and juvenile eels. 1790 small eels were taken in 1985 providing information on the scale, timings and factors affecting the migration.

Implications of using On-Farm Flood Flow Capture to recharge groundwater and mitigate flood risks along the Kings River, CA

Two large hydrologic issues face the Kings Basin, severe and chronic overdraft of about 0.16M ac-ft annually, and flood risks along the Kings River and the downstream San Joaquin River. Since 1983, these floods have caused over $1B in damage in today’s dollars. Capturing flood flows of sufficient volume could help address these two pressing issues which are relevant to many regions of the Central Valley and will only be exacerbated with climate change. However, the Kings River has high variability associated with flow magnitudes which suggests that standard engineering approaches and acquisition of sufficient acreage through purchase and easements to capture and recharge flood waters would not be cost effective. An alternative approach investigated in this study, termed On-Farm Flood Flow Capture, involved leveraging large areas of private farmland to capture flood flows for both direct and in lieu recharge. This study investigated the technical and logistical feasibility of best management practices (BMPs) associated with On-Farm Flood Flow Capture. The investigation was conducted near Helm, CA, about 20 miles west of Fresno, CA. The experimental design identified a coordinated plan to determine infiltration rates for different soil series and different crops; develop a water budget for water applied throughout the program and estimate direct and in lieu recharge; provide a preliminary assessment of potential water quality impacts; assess logistical issues associated with implementation; and provide an economic summary of the program. At check locations, we measured average infiltration rates of 4.2 in/d for all fields and noted that infiltration rates decreased asymptotically over time to about 2 – 2.5 in/d. Rates did not differ significantly between the different crops and soils tested, but were found to be about an order of magnitude higher in one field. At a 2.5 in/d infiltration rate, 100 acres are required to infiltrate 10 CFS of captured flood flows. Water quality of applied flood flows from the Kings River had concentrations of COC (constituents of concern; i.e. nitrate, electrical conductivity or EC, phosphate, ammonium, total dissolved solids or TDS) one order of magnitude or more lower than for pumped groundwater at Terranova Ranch and similarly for a broader survey of regional groundwater. Applied flood flows flushed the root zone and upper vadose zone of nitrate and salts, leading to much lower EC and nitrate concentrations to a depth of 8 feet when compared to fields in which more limited flood flows were applied or for which drip irrigation with groundwater was the sole water source. In demonstrating this technology on the farm, approximately 3,100 ac-ft was diverted, primarily from April through mid-July, with about 70% towards in lieu and 30% towards direct recharge. Substantial flood flow volumes were applied to alfalfa, wine grapes and pistachio fields. A subset of those fields, primarily wine grapes and pistachios, were used primarily to demonstrate direct recharge. For those fields about 50 – 75% of water applied was calculated going to direct recharge. Data from the check studies suggests more flood flows could have been applied and infiltrated, effectively driving up the amount of water towards direct recharge. Costs to capture flood flows for in lieu and direct recharge for this project were low compared to recharge costs for other nearby systems and in comparison to irrigating with groundwater. Moreover, the potentially high flood capture capacity of this project suggests significant flood avoidance costs savings to downstream communities along the Kings and San Joaquin Rivers. Our analyses for Terranova Ranch suggest that allocating 25% or more flood flow water towards in lieu recharge and the rest toward direct recharge will result in an economically sustainable recharge approach paid through savings from reduced groundwater pumping. Two important issues need further consideration. First, these practices are likely to leach legacy salts and nitrates from the unsaturated zone into groundwater. We develop a conceptual model of EC movement through the unsaturated zone and estimated through mass balance calculations that approximately 10 kilograms per square meter of salts will be flushed into the groundwater through displacing 12 cubic meters per square meter of unsaturated zone pore water. This flux would increase groundwater salinity but an equivalent amount of water added subsequently is predicted as needed to return to current groundwater salinity levels. All subsequent flood flow capture and recharge is expected to further decrease groundwater salinity levels. Second, the project identified important farm-scale logistical issues including irrigator training; developing cropping plans to integrate farming and recharge activities; upgrading conveyance; and quantifying results. Regional logistical issues also exist related to conveyance, integration with agricultural management, economics, required acreage and Operation and Maintenance (O&M).

Estudo e desenvolvimento de um modelo de análise de risco para Radiocirurgia intracraniana

Mundialmente, eventos relatados constituídos por incidentes e acidentes em radioterapia, tem aumentado ao longo dos últimos 25 anos e a maioria destes eventos são resultados de falha humana, além de terem ocorrido com maior frequência em centros sofisticados que utilizam alta tecnologia. Em radioterapia a Gestão da Qualidade necessita de uma abordagem prospectiva através de análise de risco. Esta abordagem é defendida por recentes publicações por ser atualmente uma urgência em virtude do expressivo número de acidentes ocorridos. Dada a complexidade do processo em radioterapia, a busca pela qualidade do tratamento de forma a garantir a segurança do paciente é um dos assuntos mais discutidos mundialmente. Embora apenas 14% dos centros de radioterapia no Brasil ofereçam tratamentos com a técnica de radiocirurgia intracranial (SRS), estudos relativos a qualidade do tratamento relacionada a segurança do paciente submetido à esta técnica, é de relevante importância, pois qualquer desvio da dose prescrita é considerado muito mais crítico que em outras modalidades de tratamento radioterápico, já que são utilizadas altas doses de radiação que em geral variam de 10 Gy a 40 Gy para lesões até 50 mm de diâmetro, que são aplicadas em uma única fração ou até cinco frações. Tendo em vista tais conhecimentos, o objetivo deste trabalho foi atender um novo paradigma de Gestão da Qualidade, através do desenvolvimento de um modelo de análise de risco e de um Índice de Qualidade para a SRS no Brasil, a partir da técnica de Mapa do Processo e FMEA utilizadas pelo TG 100/AAPM. O trabalho foi desenvolvido em três centros de radioterapia de referência em alta tecnologia, dois localizados no Rio de Janeiro e um em São Paulo. Um Mapa do Processo de SRS foi identificado em cada centro de radioterapia e em seguida foi aplicada a técnica FMEA para todos os subprocessos identificados no mapa. A partir dos valores de NPR obtidos pela FMEA foi realizado um ranqueamento dos modos de falha. Modos de falha com NPR ≥ 100 e S ≥ 7 foram escolhidos como prioridade para implementação de estratégias de segurança. A partir das pontuações do parâmetro S atribuídas na aplicação da FMEA foi criado o Índice de Severidade (IS) e um Índice de Qualidade (IQ) foi criado a partir de uma relação entre o NPR e o IS. O resultado deste estudo, indica que as estratégias de segurança sejam implementadas para os 10 primeiros modos de falha do ranking e uma reavaliação do processo deve ocorrer a cada 1 ano. É também indicado que o IQ obtenha uma melhora mínima de 9% após a reavaliação do processo. De forma geral, o estudo mostrou que a adoção da ferramenta FMEA juntamente com o IQ são de fato justificadas, por minimizar os riscos para o paciente, melhorando a qualidade do tratamento aprimorando a segurança, criando mecanismos que permitam a garantia de que a dose será entregue de forma precisa e exata, e consequentemente, aumentando as chances de cura ou do controle local com uma desejada qualidade de vida para estes pacientes.

A Auditoria Interna como ferramenta de melhoria dos controles internos de uma organização: Estudo de caso em uma empresa do segmento industrial do Rio de Janeiro

A alteração no sistema de controles internos da empresa estudada teve como marco principal a mudança do foco no trabalho da auditoria interna, que começou a desempenhar suas atividades de forma estruturada e seguindo uma metodologia específica; além, de perseguir um objetivo estratégico da organização. A auditoria interna, antes do processo de certificação do sistema de controles internos exigido pela seção 404 da SOX, era apenas um instrumento de detecção de erros e compliance fiscal, que baseava seus trabalhos somente em fatos passados, com a constatação de deficiências de controles. Todavia, sem assessorar a alta a administração da empresa na resolução das deficiências, objetivando a implementação das melhorias dos controles internos. Com a necessidade de certificação da eficácia dos controles internos, a partir do ano de 2005, o foco dos trabalhos de auditoria interna foi direcionado para lograr melhorias nos métodos de controle, gestão de riscos, prevenção de fraudes e erros, nos processos operacionais, contábeis e financeiros da organização. O objetivo dessa pesquisa foi, por meio de estudo de caso único, mensurar os principais procedimentos realizados para a implantação do sistema de controles internos da empresa estudada, incluindo a metodologia adotada, o modelo escolhido, o processo de controle estabelecido, a identificação e avaliação dos principais riscos e controles, bem como a forma de seleção, avaliação e teste dos controles internos existentes. Buscou-se coletar dados preconizados pela literatura de autores renomados e analisar as diversas bibliografias, com o objetivo de comparar com a pesquisa que foi realizada nos documentos fornecidos pela empresa analisada. Este estudo levantou pontos importantes sobre o processo de gestão da empresa e da forma como se utilizou da auditoria interna como ferramenta para a melhoria de seus controles internos. Destacam-se a geração de valor empresarial que um bom ambiente de controle interno traz e os motivos que levam uma organização a implementar uma área de auditoria interna, com especial atenção ao foco de assessoramento e consultoria, alinhado as práticas internacionais de auditoria interna. Entretanto, apesar de observar melhorias na atuação da auditoria interna da organização, constata-se a necessidade de alinhamento de algumas práticas internacionais, ainda não implementadas. Descobriu-se, também, que a auditoria interna, com o devido emporwerment da alta administração, e utilizando-se das técnicas atuais e internacionais, aumentam a confiabilidade do sistema de controles internos e com isso geram valor às suas organizações. Nesta pesquisa pôde-se constatar a utilização da auditoria interna como ferramenta de gestão de recursos organizacionais, ocasionando melhorias no sistema de controles internos da empresa, e ficando constatada, por meio de auditoria executada por firma independente, a irrefutável melhoria dos controles internos da organização estudada.

Ultrasound elastography as an adjuvant to conventional ultrasound in the preoperative assessment of axillary lymph nodes in suspected breast cancer: a pilot study.

AIMS: To compare the performance of ultrasound elastography with conventional ultrasound in the assessment of axillary lymph nodes in suspected breast cancer and whether ultrasound elastography as an adjunct to conventional ultrasound can increase the sensitivity of conventional ultrasound used alone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty symptomatic women with a sonographic suspicion for breast cancer underwent ultrasound elastography of the ipsilateral axilla concurrent with conventional ultrasound being performed as part of triple assessment. Elastograms were visually scored, strain measurements calculated and node area and perimeter measurements taken. Theoretical biopsy cut points were selected. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive values (NPV) were calculated and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed and compared for elastograms and conventional ultrasound images with surgical histology as the reference standard. RESULTS: The mean age of the women was 57 years. Twenty-nine out of 50 of the nodes were histologically negative on surgical histology and 21 were positive. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV for conventional ultrasound were 76, 78, 70, and 81%, respectively; 90, 86, 83, and 93%, respectively, for visual ultrasound elastography; and for strain scoring, 100, 48, 58 and 100%, respectively. There was no significant difference between any of the node measurements CONCLUSIONS: Initial experience with ultrasound elastography of axillary lymph nodes, showed that it is more sensitive than conventional ultrasound in detecting abnormal nodes in the axilla in cases of suspected breast cancer. The specificity remained acceptable and ultrasound elastography used as an adjunct to conventional ultrasound has the potential to improve the performance of conventional ultrasound alone.