865 resultados para Risk controlling strategies


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Background: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is among the main causes of death in developed countries, and diet and lifestyle can influence CAD incidence. Objective: To evaluate the association of coronary artery disease risk score with dietary, anthropometric and biochemical components in adults clinically selected for a lifestyle modification program. Methods: 362 adults (96 men, 266 women, 53.9 +/- 9.4 years) fulfilled the inclusion criteria by presenting all the required data. The Framingham score was calculated and the IV Brazilian Guideline on Dyslipidemia and Prevention of Atherosclerosis was adopted for classification of the CAD risks. Anthropometric assessments included waist circumference (WC), body fat and calculated BMI (kg/m(2)) and muscle-mass index (MMI kg/m(2)). Dietary intake was estimated through 24 h dietary recall. Fasting blood was used for biochemical analysis. Metabolic Syndrome (MS) was diagnosed using NCEP-ATPIII (2001) criteria. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds of CAD risks according to the altered components of MS, dietary, anthropometric, and biochemical components. Results: For a sample with a BMI 28.5 +/- 5.0 kg/m(2) the association with lower risk (<10% CAD) were lower age (<60 years old), and plasma values of uric acid. The presence of MS within low, intermediary, and high CAD risk categories was 30.8%, 55.5%, and 69.8%, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with CAD risk score was MS and uric acid, and the protective factors were recommended intake of saturated fat and fiber and muscle mass index. Conclusion: Recommended intake of saturated fat and dietary fiber, together with proper muscle mass, are inversely associated with CAD risk score. On the other hand, the presence of MS and high plasma uric acid are associated with CAD risk score.

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The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

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Tamarindus indica has been used in folk medicine as an antidiabetic, a digestive aid, and a carminative, among other uses. Currently, there is no information in the toxicology literature concerning the safety of T. indica extract. We evaluated the clastogenic and/or genotoxic potential of fruit pulp extract of this plant in vivo in peripheral blood and liver cells of Wistar rats, using the comet assay, and in bone marrow cells of Swiss mice, using the micronucleus test. The extract was administered by gavage at doses of 1000, 1500 and 2000 mg/kg body weight. Peripheral blood and liver cells from Wistar rats were collected 24 h after treatment, for the comet assay. The micronucleus test was carried out in bone marrow cells from Swiss mice collected 24 h after treatment. The extract made with T. indica was devoid of clastogenic and genotoxic activities in the cells of the rodents, when administered orally at these three acute doses.

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According to Brazilian National Data Survey diabetes is the fifth cause for hospitalization and is one of the ten major causes of mortality in this country. Aims to stratify the estimated cardiovascular risk (eCVR) in a population of type 2 diabetics (T2DM) according to the Framingham prediction equations as well as to determine the association between eCVR with metabolic and clinical control of the disease. Methods From 2000 to 2001 a cross-sectional multicenter study was conducted in 13 public out-patients diabetes/endocrinology clinics from 8 Brazilian cities. The 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) was estimated by the prediction equations described by Wilson et al (Circulation 1998). LDL equations were preferably used; when patients missed LDL data we used total cholesterol equations instead. Results Data from 1382 patients (59.0% female) were analyzed. Median and inter-quartile range (IQ) of age and duration of diabetes were 57.4 (51-65) and 8.8 (3-13) years, respectively without differences according to the gender. Forty-two percent of these patients were overweight and 35.4% were obese (the prevalence of higher BMI and obesity in this T2DM group was significantly higher in women than in men; p < 0.001). The overall estimated eCVR in T2DM patients was 21.4 (13.5-31.3). The eCVR was high (> 20%) in 738 (53.4%), intermediate in 202 (14.6%) and low in 442 (32%) patients. Men [25.1(15.4-37.3)] showed a higher eCVR than women [18.8 (12.4-27.9) p < 0.001]. The most common risk factor was high LDL-cholesterol (80.8%), most frequently found in women than in men (p = 0.01). The median of risk factors present was three (2-4) without gender differences. Overall we observed that 60 (4.3%) of our patients had none, 154(11.1%) one, 310 (22.4%) two, 385 (27.9%) three, 300 (21.7%) four, 149 (10.5%) five and six, (2%) six risk factors. A higher eCVR was noted in overweight or obese patients (p = 0.01 for both groups). No association was found between eCVR with age or a specific type of diabetes treatment. A correlation was found between eCVR and duration of diabetes (p < 0.001), BMI (p < 0.001), creatinine (p < 0.001) and triglycerides levels (p < 0.001) but it was not found with HbA1c, fasting blood glucose and postprandial glucose. A higher eCVR was observed in patients with retinopathy (p < 0.001) and a tendency in patients with microalbuminuria (p = 0.06). Conclusion: our study showed that in this group of Brazilian T2DM the eCVR was correlated with the lipid profile and it was higher in patients with microvascular chronic complications. No correlation was found with glycemic control parameters. These data could explain the failure of intensive glycemic control programs aiming to reduce cardiovascular events observed in some studies.

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Background: Genetic polymorphisms of the TCF7L2 gene are strongly associated with large increments in type 2 diabetes risk in different populations worldwide. In this study, we aimed to confirm the effect of the TCF7L2 polymorphism rs7903146 on diabetes risk in a Brazilian population and to assess the use of this genetic marker in improving diabetes risk prediction in the general population. Methods: We genotyped the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene in 560 patients with known coronary disease enrolled in the MASS II (Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study) Trial and in 1,449 residents of Vitoria, in Southeast Brazil. The associations of this gene variant to diabetes risk and metabolic characteristics in these two different populations were analyzed. To access the potential benefit of using this marker for diabetes risk prediction in the general population we analyzed the impact of this genetic variant on a validated diabetes risk prediction tool based on clinical characteristics developed for the Brazilian general population. Results: SNP rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes in the MASS-II population (OR = 1.57 per T allele, p = 0.0032), confirming, in the Brazilian population, previous reports of the literature. Addition of this polymorphism to an established clinical risk prediction score did not increased model accuracy (both area under ROC curve equal to 0.776). Conclusion: TCF7L2 rs7903146 T allele is associated with a 1.57 increased risk for type 2 diabetes in a Brazilian cohort of patients with known coronary heart disease. However, the inclusion of this polymorphism in a risk prediction tool developed for the general population resulted in no improvement of performance. This is the first study, to our knowledge, that has confirmed this recent association in a South American population and adds to the great consistency of this finding in studies around the world. Finally, confirming the biological association of a genetic marker does not guarantee improvement on already established screening tools based solely on demographic variables.

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Background: In family studies, it is important to evaluate the impact of genes and environmental factors on traits of interest. In particular, the relative influences of both genes and the environment may vary in different strata of the population of interest, such as young and old individuals, or males and females. Methods: In this paper, extensions of the variance components model are used to evaluate heterogeneity in the genetic and environmental variance components due to the effects of sex and age (the cutoff between young and old was 43 yrs). The data analyzed were from 81 Brazilian families (1,675 individuals) of the Baependi Family Heart Study. Results: The models allowing for heterogeneity of variance components by sex suggest that genetic and environmental variances are not different in males and females for diastolic blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, and HDL-cholesterol, independent of the covariates included in the models. However, for systolic blood pressure, fasting glucose and triglycerides, the evidence for heterogeneity was dependent on the covariates in the model. For instance, in the presence of sex and age covariates, heterogeneity in the genetic variance component was suggested for fasting glucose. But, for systolic blood pressure, there was no evidence of heterogeneity in any of the two variance components. Except for the LDL-cholesterol, models allowing for heterogeneity by age provide evidence of heterogeneity in genetic variance for triglycerides and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. There was evidence of heterogeneity in environmental variance in fasting glucose and HDL-cholesterol. Conclusions: Our results suggest that heterogeneity in trait variances should not be ignored in the design and analyses of gene-finding studies involving these traits, as it may generate additional information about gene effects, and allow the investigation of more sophisticated models such as the model including sex-specific oligogenic variance components.

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Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

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Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

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Background Associations between aplastic anemia and numerous drugs, pesticides and chemicals have been reported. However, at least 50% of the etiology of aplastic anemia remains unexplained. Design and Methods This was a case-control, multicenter, multinational study, designed to identify risk factors for agranulocytosis and aplastic anemia. The cases were patients with diagnosis of aplastic anemia confirmed through biopsy or bone marrow aspiration, selected through an active search of clinical laboratories, hematology clinics and medical records. The controls did not have either aplastic anemia or chronic diseases. A total of 224 patients with aplastic anemia were included in the study, each case was paired with four controls, according to sex, age group, and hospital where the case was first seen. Information was collected on demographic data, medical history, laboratory tests, medications, and other potential risk factors prior to diagnosis. Results The incidence of aplastic anemia was 1.6 cases per million per year. Higher rates of benzene exposure (>= 30 exposures per year) were associated with a greater risk of aplastic anemia (odds ratio, OR: 4.2; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.82-9.82). Individuals exposed to chloramphenicol in the previous year had an adjusted OR for aplastic anemia of 8.7 (CI: 0.87-87.93) and those exposed to azithromycin had an adjusted OR of 11.02 (CI 1.14-108.02). Conclusions The incidence of aplastic anemia in Latin America countries is low. Although the research study centers had a high coverage of health services, the underreporting of cases of aplastic anemia in selected regions can be discussed. Frequent exposure to benzene-based products increases the risk for aplastic anemia. Few associations with specific drugs were found, and it is likely that some of these were due to chance alone.

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Background: Viral hepatitis B, C and delta still remain a serious problem worldwide. In Colombia, data from 1980s described that HBV and HDV infection are important causes of hepatitis, but little is known about HCV infection. The aim of this study was to determine the currently frequency of HBV, HCV and HDV in four different Colombian regions. Methodology/Principal Findings: This study was conducted in 697 habitants from 4 Colombian departments: Amazonas, Choco, Magdalena and San Andres Islands. Epidemiological data were obtained from an interview applied to each individual aiming to evaluate risk factors related to HBV, HCV or HDV infections. All samples were tested for HBsAg, anti-HBc, anti-HBs and anti-HCV markers. Samples that were positive to HBsAg and/or anti-HBc were tested to anti-HDV. Concerning the geographical origin of the samples, the three HBV markers showed a statistically significant difference: HBsAg (p = 0.033) and anti-HBc (p < 0.001) were more frequent in Amazonas and Magdalena departments. Isolated anti-HBs (a marker of previous vaccination) frequencies were: Choco (53.26%), Amazonas (32.88%), Magdalena (17.0%) and San Andres (15.33%) p < 0.001. Prevalence of anti-HBc increased with age; HBsAg varied from 1.97 to 8.39% (p = 0.033). Amazonas department showed the highest frequency for anti-HCV marker (5.68%), while the lowest frequency was found in San Andres Island (0.66%). Anti-HDV was found in 9 (5.20%) out of 173 anti-HBc and/or HBsAg positive samples, 8 of them from the Amazonas region and 1 from them Magdalena department. Conclusions/Significance: In conclusion, HBV, HCV and HDV infections are detected throughout Colombia in frequency levels that would place some areas as hyperendemic for HBV, especially those found in Amazonas and Magdalena departments. Novel strategies to increase HBV immunization in the rural population and to strengthen HCV surveillance are reinforced by these results.

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Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide. Mental disorders are among the strongest predictors of suicide; however, little is known about which disorders are uniquely predictive of suicidal behavior, the extent to which disorders predict suicide attempts beyond their association with suicidal thoughts, and whether these associations are similar across developed and developing countries. This study was designed to test each of these questions with a focus on nonfatal suicide attempts. Methods and Findings: Data on the lifetime presence and age-of-onset of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM-IV) mental disorders and nonfatal suicidal behaviors were collected via structured face-to-face interviews with 108,664 respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. The results show that each lifetime disorder examined significantly predicts the subsequent first onset of suicide attempt (odds ratios [ORs] = 2.9-8.9). After controlling for comorbidity, these associations decreased substantially (ORs = 1.5-5.6) but remained significant in most cases. Overall, mental disorders were equally predictive in developed and developing countries, with a key difference being that the strongest predictors of suicide attempts in developed countries were mood disorders, whereas in developing countries impulse-control, substance use, and post-traumatic stress disorders were most predictive. Disaggregation of the associations between mental disorders and nonfatal suicide attempts showed that these associations are largely due to disorders predicting the onset of suicidal thoughts rather than predicting progression from thoughts to attempts. In the few instances where mental disorders predicted the transition from suicidal thoughts to attempts, the significant disorders are characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control. The limitations of this study include the use of retrospective self-reports of lifetime occurrence and age-of-onset of mental disorders and suicidal behaviors, as well as the narrow focus on mental disorders as predictors of nonfatal suicidal behaviors, each of which must be addressed in future studies. Conclusions: This study found that a wide range of mental disorders increased the odds of experiencing suicide ideation. However, after controlling for psychiatric comorbidity, only disorders characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control predict which people with suicide ideation act on such thoughts. These findings provide a more fine-grained understanding of the associations between mental disorders and subsequent suicidal behavior than previously available and indicate that mental disorders predict suicidal behaviors similarly in both developed and developing countries. Future research is needed to delineate the mechanisms through which people come to think about suicide and subsequently progress from ideation to attempts.

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Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

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About 95% of HTLV-1 infected patients remain asymptomatic throughout life, and the risk factors associated with the development of related diseases, such as HAM/TSP and ATL, are not fully understood. The human leukocyte antigen-G molecule (HLA-G), a nonclassical HLA class I molecule encoded by MHC, is expressed in several pathological conditions, including viral infection, and is related to immunosuppressive effects that allow the virus-infected cells to escape the antiviral defense of the host. The 14-bp insertion/deletion polymorphism of exon 8 HLA-G gene influences the stability of the transcripts and could be related to HTLV-1-infected cell protection and to the increase of proviral load. The present study analyzed by conventional PCR the 14-bp insertion/deletion polymorphism of exon 8 HLA-G gene in 150 unrelated healthy subjects, 82 HTLV-1 infected patients with symptoms (33 ATL and 49 HAM), and 56 asymptomatic HTLV-1 infected patients (HAC). In addition, the proviral load was determined by quantitative real-time PCR in all infected groups and correlated with 14-bp insertion/deletion genotypes. The heterozygote genotype frequencies were significantly higher in HAM, in the symptomatic group, and in infected patients compared to control (p < 0.05). The proviral load was higher in the symptomatic group than the HAC group (p < 0.0005). The comparison of proviral load and genotypes showed that -14-bp/-14-bp genotype had a higher proviral load than +14-bp/-14-bp and +14-bp/+14-bp genotypes. Although HLA-G 14-bp polymorphism does not appear to be associated

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The aim of the present study was to examine the impact of polymorphisms in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and androgen-related genes (AR, CYP17, and CYP19) on prostate cancer (PCa) risk in selected high-risk patients who underwent prostate biopsy. Blood samples and prostate tissues were obtained for DNA analysis. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the 50-untranslated regions (UTRs) of the PSA (substitution A > G at position -158) and CYP17 (substitution T > C at 50-UTR) genes were detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-restriction fragment length polymorphism assays. The CAG and TTTA repeats in the AR and CYP19 genes, respectively, were genotyped by PCR-based GeneScan analysis. Patients with the GG genotype of the PSA gene had a higher risk of PCa than those with the AG or AA genotype (OR = 3.79, p = 0.00138). The AA genotype was associated with lower PSA levels (6.44 +/- 1.64 ng/mL) compared with genotypes having at least one G allele (10.44 +/- 10.06 ng/mL) (p = 0.0687, 95% CI - 0.3146 to 8.315, unpaired t-test). The multivariate analysis confirmed the association between PSA levels and PSA genotypes (AA vs. AG+GG; chi(2) = 0.0482) and CYP19 (short alleles homozygous vs. at least one long allele; chi(2) = 0.0110) genotypes. Genetic instability at the AR locus leading to somatic mosaicism was detected in one PCa patient by comparing the length of AR CAG repeats in matched peripheral blood and prostate biopsy cores. Taken together, these findings suggest that the PSA genotype should be a clinically relevant biomarker to predict the PCa risk.

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The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate three learning methods for teaching basic oral surgical skills Thirty predoctoral dental students without any surgical knowledge or previous surgical experience were divided Into three groups (n=10 each) according to instructional strategy Group 1, active learning Group 2, text reading only, and Group 3, text reading and video demonstration After instruction, the apprentices were allowed to practice incision dissection and suture maneuvers in a bench learning model During the students' performance, a structured practice evaluation test to account for correct or incorrect maneuvers was applied by trained observers Evaluation tests were repeated after thirty and sixty days Data from resulting scores between groups and periods were considered for statistical analysis (ANOVA and Tukey Kramer) with a significant level of a=0 05 Results showed that the active learning group presented the significantly best learning outcomes related to immediate assimilation of surgical procedures compared to other groups All groups results were similar after sixty days of the first practice Assessment tests were fundamental to evaluate teaching strategies and allowed theoretical and proficiency learning feedbacks Repetition and interactive practice promoted retention of knowledge on basic oral surgical skills