Bagging and the Bayesian Bootstrap

Bagging is a method of obtaining more ro- bust predictions when the model class under consideration is unstable with respect to the data, i.e., small changes in the data can cause the predicted values to change significantly. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian ver- sion of bagging based on the Bayesian boot- strap. The Bayesian bootstrap resolves a the- oretical problem with ordinary bagging and often results in more efficient estimators. We show how model averaging can be combined within the Bayesian bootstrap and illustrate the procedure with several examples.

La brotación y la floración del kiwi en función de las temperaturas invierno - primaverales de la región central de Córdoba

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Modelling the behavior of solder joints for wafer level SiP

Design for manufacture of system-in-package (SiP) structures is dependent on a number of physical processes that affect the final quality of the package in terms of its performance and reliability. Solder joints are key structures in a SiP and their behavior can be the critical factor in terms of reliability. This paper discusses the results from a research programme on design for manufacturing of system in package (SiP) technologies. The focus of the paper is on thermo-mechanical modelling of solder joints. This includes the behavior of the joints during testing plus some important insights into the reflow process and how physical phenomena taking place at the assembly stage can affect solder joint behavior. Finite element analysis of a numerical model of an SiP structure with various design parameters is discussed. The goal of this analysis is to identify the most promising combination of design parameters which guarantee longer lifetime of the solder joints and hence the SiP component. The parameters that were studied are the size of the package (i.e. number of solder joints per row), the presence of the underfill and/or the reinforcement as well as the thickness of the passive die. Discussion was also provided on phenomena that take place during the reflow process where the solder joints are formed. In particular, the formation of intermetallics at the solder-pad interfaces

"System in package technology" - design for manufacture challenges

Purpose – To present key challenges associated with the evolution of system-in-package technologies and present technical work in reliability modeling and embedded test that contributes to these challenges. Design/methodology/approach – Key challenges have been identified from the electronics and integrated MEMS industrial sectors. Solutions to optimising the reliability of a typical assembly process and reducing the cost of production test have been studied through simulation and modelling studies based on technology data released by NXP and in collaboration with EDA tool vendors Coventor and Flomerics. Findings – Characterised models that deliver special and material dependent reliability data that can be used to optimize robustness of SiP assemblies together with results that indicate relative contributions of various structural variables. An initial analytical model for solder ball reliability and a solution for embedding a low cost test for a capacitive RF-MEMS switch identified as an SiP component presenting a key test challenge. Research limitations/implications – Results will contribute to the further development of NXP wafer level system-in-package technology. Limitations are that feedback on the implementation of recommendations and the physical characterisation of the embedded test solution. Originality/value – Both the methodology and associated studies on the structural reliability of an industrial SiP technology are unique. The analytical model for solder ball life is new as is the embedded test solution for the RF-MEMS switch.

Structural and biological investigation of ferrocene-substituted 3-methylidene-1,3-dihydro-2H-indol-2-ones

The Knoevenagel condensation of 1,3-dihydro-2H-indol-2-one with ferrocene carboxaldehyde afforded an approximate 2:1 mixture of the geometrical isomers (E)- and (Z)-3-ferrocenylmethylidene-1,3-dihydro-2H-indol-2-one respectively in an overall 67% yield; the air and solution-stable isomers were readily separated by preparative thin layer chromatography and their structures were unequivocally elucidated in solution, by (1)H NMR spectroscopy, and in the solid phase, by X-ray crystallography; both isomers of displayed in vitro toxicity against B16 melanoma and Vero cell lines in the micromolar range and inhibited the kinase VEGFR-2 with IC(50) values of ca. 200 nM.

Synthesis of a 1,4-benzodiazepine containing palladacycle with in vitro anticancer and cathepsin B activity

The reaction of the five-membered C,N-palladacycle [(L)PdCl](2), where LH = 1-methyl-5-phenyl-1H-1,4-benzodiazepin-2(3H)-one, with 1,2-ethanebis(diphenylphosphine), dppe, leads to the formation of the bridged palladacycle. [Pd(2)L(2)(mu-dppe)Cl(2)] 3, which was characterised in solution by (1)H and (31)P NMR spectroscopy and in the solid state by X-ray crystallography. Complex 3 was tested in vitro against a number of cell lines. For example, it inhibited K562 leukaemia cells with an IC(50) value of 4.3 microM (1 h exposure) and displayed cathepsin B inhibitory action with an IC(50) value of 3 microM.

Intracellular fate of bioresponsive poly(amidoamine)s in vitro and in vivo

Linear poly(amidoamine)s (PAAs) have been designed to exhibit minimal non-specific toxicity, display pH-dependent membrane lysis and deliver genes and toxins in vitro. The aim of this study was to measure PAA cellular uptake using ISA1-OG (and as a reference ISA23-OG) in B16F10 cells in vitro and, by subcellular fractionation, quantitate intracellular trafficking of (125)I-labelled ISA1-tyr in liver cells after intravenous (i.v.) administration to rats. The effect of time after administration (0.5-3h) and ISA1 dose (0.04-100mg/kg) on trafficking, and vesicle permeabilisation (N-acetyl-b-D-glucosaminidase (NAG) release from an isolated vesicular fraction) were also studied. ISA1-OG displayed approximately 60-fold greater B16F10 cell uptake than ISA23-OG. Passage of ISA1 along the liver cell endocytic pathway caused a transient decrease in vesicle buoyant density (also visible by TEM). Increasing ISA1 dose from 10mg/kg to 100mg/kg increased both radioactivity and NAG levels in the cytosolic fraction (5-10 fold) at 1h. Moreover, internalised ISA1 provoked NAG release from an isolated vesicular fraction in a dose-dependent manner. These results provide direct evidence, for the first time, of PAA permeabilisation of endocytic vesicular membranes in vivo, and they have important implications for potential efficacy/toxicity of such polymeric vectors.

The use of fluorescence microscopy to define polymer localisation to the late endocytic compartments in cells that are targets for drug delivery

Macromolecular therapeutics and nano-sized drug delivery systems often require localisation to specific intracellular compartments. In particular, efficient endosomal escape, retrograde trafficking, or late endocytic/lysosomal activation are often prerequisites for pharmacological activity. The aim of this study was to define a fluorescence microscopy technique able to confirm the localisation of water-soluble polymeric carriers to late endocytic intracellular compartments. Three polymeric carriers of different molecular weight and character were studied: dextrin (Mw~50,000 g/mol), a N-(2-hydroxypropyl)methacrylamide (HPMA) copolymer (Mw approximately 35,000 g/mol) and polyethylene glycol (PEG) (Mw 5000 g/mol). They were labelled with Oregon Green (OG) (0.3-3 wt.%; <3% free OG in respect of total). A panel of relevant target cells were used: THP-1, ARPE-19, and MCF-7 cells, and primary bovine chondrocytes (currently being used to evaluate novel polymer therapeutics) as well as NRK and Vero cells as reference controls. Specific intracellular compartments were marked using either endocytosed physiological standards, Marine Blue (MB) or Texas-red (TxR)-Wheat germ agglutinin (WGA), TxR-Bovine Serum Albumin (BSA), TxR-dextran, ricin holotoxin, C6-7-nitro-2,1,3-benzoxadiazol-4-yl (NBD)-labelled ceramide and TxR-shiga toxin B chain, or post-fixation immuno-staining for early endosomal antigen 1 (EEA1), lysosomal-associated membrane proteins (LAMP-1, Lgp-120 or CD63) or the Golgi marker GM130. Co-localisation with polymer-OG conjugates confirmed transfer to discreet, late endocytic (including lysosomal) compartments in all cells types. The technique described here is a particularly powerful tool as it circumvents fixation artefacts ensuring the retention of water-soluble polymers within the vesicles they occupy.

Investigation into a modular rule-based testing method for testing business rules in scheduling applications

Rule testing in transport scheduling is a complex and potentially costly business problem. This paper proposes an automated method for the rule-based testing of business rules using the extensible Markup Language for rule representation and transportation. A compiled approach to rule execution is also proposed for performance-critical scheduling systems.

Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch

Phenology, the study of annually recurring life cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering, can provide particularly sensitive indicators of climate change. Changes in phenology may be important to ecosystem function because the level of response to climate change may vary across functional groups and multiple trophic levels. The decoupling of phenological relationships will have important ramifications for trophic interactions, altering food-web structures and leading to eventual ecosystem-level changes. Temperate marine environments may be particularly vulnerable to these changes because the recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependent on synchronization with pulsed planktonic production. Using long-term data of 66 plankton taxa during the period from 1958 to 2002, we investigated whether climate warming signals are emergent across all trophic levels and functional groups within an ecological community. Here we show that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.

Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms in the northeast Atlantic

We investigated long-term spatial variability in a number of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Over the last four decades, some dinoflagellate taxa showed pronounced variation in the south and east of the North Sea, with the most significant increases being restricted to the adjacent waters off Norway. There was also a general decrease along the eastern coast of the United Kingdom. The most prominent feature in the interannual bloom frequencies over the last four decades was the anomalously high values recorded in the late 1980s in the northern and central North Sea areas. The only mesoscale area in the northeast Atlantic to show a significant increase in bloom formation over the last decade was the Norwegian coastal region. The changing spatial patterns of HAB taxa and the frequency of bloom formation are discussed in relation to regional climate change, in particular, changes in temperature, salinity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Areas highly vulnerable to the effects of regional climate change on HABs are Norwegian coastal waters and the Skagerrak. Other vulnerable areas include Danish coastal waters, and to a lesser extent, the German and Dutch Bight and the northern Irish Sea. Quite apart from eutrophication, our results give a preview of what might happen to certain HAB genera under changing climatic conditions in temperate environments and their responses to variability of climate oscillations such as the NAO.

Encounter success of free-ranging marine predator movements across a dynamic prey landscape

Movements of wide-ranging top predators can now be studied effectively using satellite and archival telemetry. However, the motivations underlying movements remain difficult to determine because trajectories are seldom related to key biological gradients, such as changing prey distributions. Here, we use a dynamic prey landscape of zooplankton biomass in the north-east Atlantic Ocean to examine active habitat selection in the plankton-feeding basking shark Cetorhinus maximus. The relative success of shark searches across this landscape was examined by comparing prey biomass encountered by sharks with encounters by random-walk simulations of ‘model’ sharks. Movements of transmitter-tagged sharks monitored for 964 days (16754km estimated minimum distance) were concentrated on the European continental shelf in areas characterized by high seasonal productivity and complex prey distributions. We show movements by adult and sub-adult sharks yielded consistently higher prey encounter rates than 90% of random-walk simulations. Behavioural patterns were consistent with basking sharks using search tactics structured across multiple scales to exploit the richest prey areas available in preferred habitats. Simple behavioural rules based on learned responses to previously encountered prey distributions may explain the high performances. This study highlights how dynamic prey landscapes enable active habitat selection in large predators to be investigated from a trophic perspective, an approach that may inform conservation by identifying critical habitat of vulnerable species.

How well does the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) sample zooplankton? A comparison with the Longhurst Hardy Plankton Recorder (LHPR) in the northeast Atlantic

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has collected data on basin- scale zooplankton abundance in the North Atlantic since the 1930s. These data have been used in many studies to elucidate seasonal patterns and long-term change in plankton populations, as well as more recently to validate ecosystem models. There has, however, been relatively little comparison of the data from the CPR with that from other samplers. In this study we compare zooplankton abundance estimated from the CPR in the northeast Atlantic with near-surface samples collected by a Longhurst-Hardy Plankton Recorder (LHPR) at Ocean Weather Station India (59 degree N, 19 degree W) between 1971 and 1975. Comparisons were made for six common copepods in the region: Acartia clausi, Calanus finmarchicus, Euchaeta norvegica, Metridia lucens, Oithona sp. and Pleuromamma robusta. Seasonal cycles based on CPR data were similar to those recorded by the LHPR. Differences in absolute abundances were apparent, however, with the CPR underestimating abundances by a factor of between 5 and 40, with the exception of A. clausi. Active avoidance by zooplankton is thought to be responsible. This avoidance is species specific, so that care must be taken describing communities, as the CPR emphasises those species that are preferentially caught, a problem common to many plankton samplers.

An overview of Calanus helgolandicus ecology in European waters

We review current knowledge and understanding of the biology and ecology of the calanoid copepod Calanus helgolandicus in European waters, as well as provide a collaborative synthesis of data from 18 laboratories and 26 sampling stations in areas distributed from the northern North Sea to the Aegean and Levantine Seas. This network of zooplankton time-series stations has enabled us to collect and synthesise seasonal and multi-annual data on abundance, body size, fecundity, hatching success and vertical distribution of C. helgolandicus. An aim was to enable comparison with its congener Calanus finmarchicus, which has been studied intensively as a key component of European and north east Atlantic marine ecosystems. C. finmarchicus is known to over-winter at depth, whereas the life-cycle of C. helgolandicus is less well understood. Overwintering populations of C. helgolandicus have been observed off the Atlantic coast between 400 and 800 m, while in the Mediterranean there is evidence of significant deep-water populations at depths as great as 4200 m. The biogeographical distribution of C. helgolandicus in European coastal waters covers a wide range of habitats, from open ocean to coastal environments, and its contribution to mesozooplankton biomass ranges from 6% to 93%. Highest abundances were recorded in the Adriatic and off the west coast of Spain. C. helgolandicus is generally found in 9-20 C water, with maximum abundances from 13-17 C. In contrast, C. finmarchicus is found in cooler water between 0 and 15 C, with peak abundances from 0 to 9 C. As water has warmed in the North Atlantic over recent decades, the range of C. helgolandicus and its abundance on the fringes of its expanding range have increased. This review will facilitate development of population models of C. helgolandicus. This will not only help answer remaining questions but will improve our ability to forecast future changes, in response to a warming climate, in the abundance and distribution of this important species.