Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Axial elongation following prolonged near work in myopes and emmetropes

Background/aims: To investigate the influence of a period of sustained near work upon axial length in groups of emmetropes and myopes. Methods: Forty young adult subjects (20 myopes and 20 emmetropes) were recruited for the study. Myopes were further classified as either early onset (EOM), late onset (LOM), stable (SM) or progressing (PM) subgroups. Axial length was measured with the IOLMaster instrument before, immediately after and then again 10 minutes after a continuous 30 minute near task of 5 D accommodation demand. Measures of distance objective refraction were also collected. Results: Significant changes in axial length were observed immediately following the near task. EOM axial length elongated on average by 0.027 ± 0.021 mm, LOM by 0.014 ± 0.020 mm, EMM by 0.010 ± 0.015 mm, PM by 0.031 ± 0.022 mm, and SM by 0.014 ± 0.018 mm. At the conclusion of the 10 minute regression period, axial length measures were not significantly different from baseline values. Conclusion: Axial elongation was observed following a prolonged near task. Both EOM and PM groups showed increases in axial length that were significantly greater than emmetropes

Should cooking be a dietetic competency?

Aim:  There are issues surrounding the apparent decline and devaluing of cooking skills in the population, potential health impacts and the role of dietitians. The present paper aims to outline several arguments and raise questions on the relationship between cooking and dietetics.---------- Methods:  Evidence from dietetics and nutrition journals and other sources is used to develop positions for dietetics and its relationship to cooking and cooking skills. ---------- Results:  The historical relationship between dietetics and home economics has seen dietetics professionally distance itself by its scientific education on food and nutrition, rather than actual involvement with cooking. In pursuing this rational scientific approach there are concerns that dietitians have inadvertently supported the growth of the functional and convenience food market, particularly given the demise of home economics as a skill-based curricula in schools in several states. There is a need to consider what role cooking skills could have in dietetics training as a professional competency for practice, particularly for public health interventions. This is in the light of Commonwealth government funding that is legitimising cooking skill interventions as a policy response to obesity. There may be a role for dietitians to develop partnerships and train a new professional category or paraprofessionals and/or peer educators to deliver cooking skill interventions. ---------- Conclusion:  There is a need for research on dietitian's views and use of cooking skill interventions. This would help answer whether we should consider cooking and cooking skills as part of our professional practice and whether cooking should be a dietetic competency.

What's cooking for dietetics? A review of the literature

Aim: There has been no systematic research on the role of cooking skills for improving dietary intakes in Australia. Cooking skills are proposed to be declining and/or being devalued. If cooking skills have been devalued and declining, then what evidence is there for this decline and what impact might this have on dietary intakes? The aim of the present paper is to explore these assumptions with particular reference to Australia. The objectives of the present paper are to define the terms cooking and cooking skills, discuss evidence on levels of cooking skills in Australia and describe the evidence linking cooking skills to dietary intakes.---------- Methods: A review of the peer-reviewed literature using multiple databases from 1990 to September 2009.---------- Results: Cooking skills are complex and require a range of processes for people to develop efficiency or confidence in food preparation. There is little evidence on the level of cooking skills in the Australian population and how this relates to dietary intakes. The Australian Bureau of Statistic’s latest Time Use Survey and Household Expenditure Survey suggest that cooking is still a gendered activity and that the time devoted to cooking has changed little in the past 15 years, but there is an increasing use of foods prepared outside the home.---------- Conclusion: Further research is required to examine the prevalence of different types and levels of cooking skills in Australia as well as their potential effects on dietary intakes. Dietitians need evidence about the level of cooking skills people require for healthy dietary intakes.

Intradialytic exercise : a feasibility study

Background: Exercise is known to improve mental and physical functioning and to improve quality of life. The obstacles faced by individuals with chronic kidney disease on maintenance haemodialysis include increased levels of fatigue, decreased motivation, and the inability to schedule exercise around daily activities and dialysis schedules. Aim: This pilot study was undertaken to determine the feasibility and potential efficacy of an individually-tailored exercise program for in-centre haemodialysis patients. Method: A 16 week program was designed and evaluated in relation to changes in physical capacity, the extent of exercise undertaken, and quality of life indicators. Results and Conclusion: The resultant recommendations regarding the level of motivational support, the time and physical requirements in implementing an exercise program will provide useful information for others embarking on similar studies.

Does the p38 MAP kinase inhibitor pamapimod have potential for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis?

Background: Methotrexate alone or in combination with other agents is the standard treatment for moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis. As the biological agents are expensive, they are not usually used until methotrexate has failed to give a good response. Thus, there is scope for the development of cheaper drugs that can be used instead of methotrexate or in addition to methotrexate. Objectives/methods: Pamapimod is a p38α inhibitor being developed for use in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. The objective was to evaluate the recent clinical trials of pamapimod in subjects with rheumatoid arthritis. Results: There is no clear cut evidence that pamapimod alone or in the presence of methotrexate is efficacious in subjects with rheumatoid arthritis, but it does cause adverse effects. Conclusion: It is unlikely that pamapimod will be useful in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.

Resolvin inflammation with pain

Background: Inflammation and pain coexist in conditions such as arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and lower back pain. The drugs currently used to treat the combination of inflammation and pain all have disadvantages. Thus, new drugs and new approaches are needed to treat inflammation with pain. The resolvins are considered to be part of the natural resolving mechanism for inflammation, and have been shown to prevent inflammation in animal models. Objectives/methods: To evaluate a paper suggesting that the resolvins RvE1 and RvD1 attenuate inflammatory pain in animal models. Results: RvE1 has been shown to attenuate inflammation and, to a lesser extent, pain in animal models. Limited results are presented of the effectiveness of RvD1 against inflammatory pain. Conclusion: Drugs that mimic or potentiate the effects of the resolvins may be useful for the treatment of some inflammation with pain.

Peripheral ocular aberrations in mild and moderate keratoconus

Purpose: To investigate the influence of keratoconus on peripheral ocular aberrations. Methods: Aberrations of 7 mild and 5 moderate keratoconics were determined over a 42°horizontal x 32° vertical visual field with a modified COAS-HD aberrometer. Control data were obtained from an emmetropic group. Results: Most aberrations in keratoconics showed field dependence predominately along the vertical meridian. Mean spherical equivalent M, oblique astigmatism J45 and regular astigmatism J180 refraction components and total root mean square aberrations (excluding defocus) had high magnitudes in the inferior visual field. The rates of change of aberrations were higher in moderate than in mild keratoconics. Coma was the dominant peripheral higher-order aberration in both emmetropes and keratoconics; for the latter it had high magnitudes in the centre and periphery of the visual field. Conclusion: Greater rates of change of aberrations across the visual field occurred for the keratoconic groups than for the emmetropic control group. Moderate keratoconics had more rapid changes in, and higher magnitudes of aberrations across the visual field than mild keratoconics. The dominant higher-order aberration for the keratoconics across the visual field was vertical coma.

Harnessing ICT-based tool for improving the collaborative health planning debate : the case of Logan-Beaudesert, Australia

The field of collaborative health planning faces significant challenges posed by the lack of effective information, systems and a framework to organise that information. Such a framework is critical in order to make accessible and informed decisions for planning healthy cities. The challenges have been exaggerated by the rise of the healthy cities movement, as a result of which, there have been more frequent calls for localised, collaborative and evidence-based decision-making. Some studies suggest that the use of ICT-based tools in health planning may lead to: increased collaboration between stakeholder sand the community; improve the accuracy and quality of the decision making process; and, improve the availability of data and information for health decision-makers as well as health service planners. Research has justified the use of decision support systems (DSS) in planning for healthy cities as these systems have been found to improve the planning process. DSS are information communication technology (ICT) tools including geographic information systems (GIS) that provide the mechanisms to help decision-makers and related stake holders assess complex problems and solve these in a meaningful way. Consequently, it is now more possible than ever before to make use of ICT-based tools in health planning. However, knowledge about the nature and use of DSS within collaborative health planning is relatively limited. In particular, little research has been conducted in terms of evaluating the impact of adopting these tools upon stakeholders, policy-makers and decision-makers within the health planning field. This paper presents an integrated method that has been developed to facilitate an informed decision-making process to assist in the health planning process. Specifically, the paper describes the participatory process that has been adopted to develop an online GIS-based DSS for health planners. The literature states that the overall aim of DSS is to improve the efficiency of the decisions made by stakeholders, optimising their overall performance and minimizing judgmental biases. For this reason, the paper examines the effectiveness and impact of an innovative online GIS-based DSS on health planners. The case study of the online DSS is set within a unique settings-based initiative designed to plan for and improve the health capacity of Logan-Beaudesert area, Australia. This unique setting-based initiative is named the Logan-Beaudesert Health Coalition (LBHC).The paper outlines the impact occurred by implementing the ICT-based DSS. In conclusion, the paper emphasizes upon the need for the proposed tool for enhancing health planning.

Subjective blur limits for cylinder

Purpose: To compare subjective blur limits for cylinder and defocus. ---------- Method: Blur was induced with a deformable, adaptive-optics mirror when either the subjects’ own astigmatisms were corrected or when both astigmatisms and higher-order aberrations were corrected. Subjects were cyclopleged and had 5 mm artificial pupils. Black letter targets (0.1, 0.35 and 0.6 logMAR) were presented on white backgrounds. Results: For ten subjects, blur limits were approximately 50% greater for cylinder than for defocus (in diopters). While there were considerable effects of axis for individuals, overall this was not strong, with the 0° (or 180°) axis having about 20% greater limits than oblique axes. In a second experiment with text (equivalent in angle to N10 print at 40 cm distance), cylinder blur limits for 6 subjects were approximately 30% greater than those for defocus; this percentage was slightly smaller than for the three letters. Blur limits of the text were intermediate between those of 0.35 logMAR and 0.6 logMAR letters. Extensive blur limit measurements for one subject with single letters did not show expected interactions between target detail orientation and cylinder axis. ---------- Conclusion: Subjective blur limits for cylinder are 30%-50% greater than those for defocus, with the overall influence of cylinder axis being 20%.

Case management educational intervention with public health nurses : cluster randomized controlled trial

Aim: This paper is a report of a study conducted to determine the effectiveness of a community case management collaborative education intervention in terms of satisfaction, learning and performance among public health nurses. Background: Previous evaluation studies of case management continuing professional education often failed to demonstrate effectiveness across a range of outcomes and had methodological weaknesses such as small convenience samples and lack of control groups. Method: A cluster randomised controlled trial was conducted between September 2005 and February 2006. Ten health centre clusters (5 control, 5 intervention) recruited 163 public health nurses in Taiwan to the trial. After pre-tests for baseline measurements, public health nurses in intervention centres received an educational intervention of four half-day workshops. Post-tests for both groups were conducted after the intervention. Two-way repeated measures analysis of variance was performed to evaluate the effect of the intervention on target outcomes. Results: A total of 161 participants completed the pre- and post-intervention measurements. This was almost a 99% response rate. Results revealed that 97% of those in the experimental group were satisfied with the programme. There were statistically significant differences between the two groups in knowledge (p = 0.001), confidence in case management skills (p = 0.001), preparedness for case manager role activities (p = 0.001), self-reported frequency in using skills (p = 0.001), and role activities (p = 0.004). Conclusion: Collaboration between academic and clinical nurses is an effective strategy to prepare nurses for rapidly-changing roles.

Mild systemic hypoxia and photopic visual field sensitivity

Purpose: Flickering stimuli increase the metabolic demand of the retina,making it a sensitive perimetric stimulus to the early onset of retinal disease. We determine whether flickering stimuli are a sensitive indicator of vision deficits resulting from to acute, mild systemic hypoxia when compared to standard static perimetry. Methods: Static and flicker visual perimetry were performed in 14 healthy young participants while breathing 12% oxygen (hypoxia) under photopic illumination. The hypoxia visual field data were compared with the field data measured during normoxia. Absolute sensitivities (in dB) were analysed in seven concentric rings at 1°, 3°, 6°, 10°, 15°, 22° and 30° eccentricities as well as mean defect (MD) and pattern defect (PD) were calculated. Preliminary data are reported for mesopic light levels. Results: Under photopic illumination, flicker and static visual field sensitivities at all eccentricities were not significantly different between hypoxia and normoxia conditions. The mean defect and pattern defect were not significantly different for either test between the two oxygenation conditions. Conclusion: Although flicker stimulation increases cellular metabolism, flicker photopic visual field impairment is not detected during mild hypoxia. These findings contrast with electrophysiological flicker tests in young participants that show impairment at photopic illumination during the same levels of mild hypoxia. Potential mechanisms contributing to the difference between the visual fields and electrophysiological flicker tests including variability in perimetric data, neuronal adaptation and vascular autoregulation, are considered. The data have implications for the use of visual perimetry in the detection of ischaemic/hypoxic retinal disorders under photopic and mesopic light levels.

Repeat participation in colorectal cancer screening utilizing fecal occult blood testing : a community-based project in a rural setting

Background and Aim: To investigate participation in a second round of colorectal cancer screening using a fecal occult blood test (FOBT) in an Australian rural community, and to assess the demographic characteristics and individual perspectives associated with repeat screening. ---------- Methods: Potential participants from round 1 (50–74 years of age) were sent an intervention package and asked to return a completed FOBT (n = 3406). Doctors of participants testing positive referred to colonoscopy as appropriate. Following screening, 119 participants completed qualitative telephone interviews. Multivariable logistic regression models evaluated the association between round-2 participation and other variables.---------- Results: Round-2 participation was 34.7%; the strongest predictor was participation in round 1. Repeat participants were more likely to be female; inconsistent screeners were more likely to be younger (aged 50–59 years). The proportion of positive FOBT was 12.7%, that of colonoscopy compliance was 98.6%, and the positive predictive value for cancer or adenoma of advanced pathology was 23.9%. Reasons for participation included testing as a precautionary measure or having family history/friends with colorectal cancer; reasons for non-participation included apathy or doctors’ advice against screening.---------- Conclusion: Participation was relatively low and consistent across rounds. Unless suitable strategies are identified to overcome behavioral trends and/or to screen out ineligible participants, little change in overall participation rates can be expected across rounds.

Training for lifestyle entrepreneurs

Many developed countries have issues with the movement of populations away from rural areas. There has been an active move towards 'value adding' in rural areas, and in particular, the development of tourism activities, to counter this trend. The purpose of this paper is to document the curriculum development process that was engaged in, in the design, delivery and outcomes of a programme designed to encourage and equip rural entrepreneurs to extend into the tourism and hospitality industries. These entrepreneurs operate in Hedmark Region of Norway and the training took place in Brisbane, Australia. The development and delivery of the training programme took place in Norway and Australia. The methodology is qualitative and it is hoped the research will lead to a longitudinal study of the impact of lifestyle entrepreneurs on local economic development in rural areas. The action research process that was engaged in means that the entrepreneurs are active participants in the research, and the quality of their feedback and willingness to discuss their changed behaviour are critical to both evaluating the impact of the programme and the potential for further study on the economic impact of their activities. The development process and the nature of the curriculum used for these entrepreneurs may well provide insights into effective training for lifestyle entrepreneurs in other contexts. The participants were asked to evaluate the programme immediately on its conclusion and six months after the programme when they were interviewed in their place of operation.

Cross-talk of subchondral bone osteoblasts and articular cartilage chondrocytes : a new insight in understanding osteoarthritis pathogenesis

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disorder and represents a major health burden to society. In the course of the pathological development of OA, articular cartilage chondrocytes (ACCs) undergo atypical phenotype changes characterized by the expression of hypertrophic differentiation markers. Also, the adjacent subchondral bone shows signs of abnormal mineral density and enhanced production of bone turnover markers, indicative of osteoblast dysfunction. Collectively these findings indicate that the pathological changes typical of OA, involve alterations of the phenotypic properties of cells in both the subchondral bone and articular cartilage. However, the mechanism(s) by which these changes occur during OA development are not completely understood. The purpose of this project was to address the question of how subchondral bone osteoblasts (SBOs) and ACCs interact with each other with respect to regulation of respective cells’ phenotypic properties and in particular the involvement of mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) signalling pathways under normal and OA joint condition. We also endeavoured to test the influence of cross-talk between SBOs and ACCs isolated from normal and OA joint on matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) expression. For this purpose tissues from the knees of OA patients and normal controls were collected to isolate SBOs and ACCs. The cellular cross-talk of SBOs and ACCs were studied by means of both direct and indirect co-culture systems, which made it possible to identify the role of both membrane bound and soluble factors. Histology, immunohistochemistry, qRT-PCR, zymography, ELISA and western blotting were some of the techniques applied to distinguish the changes in the co-cultured vs. non co-cultured cells. The MAPK signalling pathways were probed by using targeted MAPK inhibitors, and their activity monitored by western blot analysis using phospho MAPK specific antibodies. Our co-culture studies demonstrated that OA ACCs enhanced the SBOs differentiation compared to normal ACCs. We demonstrated that OA ACCs induced these phenotypic changes in the SBOs via activating an ERK1/2 signalling pathway. The findings from this study thus provided clear evidence that OA ACCs play an integral role in altering the SBO phenotype. In the second study, we tested the influence of normal SBOs and OA SBOs on ACCs phenotype changes. The results showed that OA SBOs increased the hypertrophic gene expression in co-cultured ACCs compared to normal SBOs, a phenotype which is considered as pathological to the health and integrity of articular cartilage. It was demonstrated that these phenotype changes occurred via de-activation of p38 and activation of ERK1/2 signaling pathways. These findings suggest that the pathological interaction of OA SBOs with ACCs is mediated by cross-talking between ERK1/2 and p38 pathways, resulting in ACCs undergoing hypertrophic differentiation. Subsequent experiments to determine the effect on MMP regulation, of SBOs and ACCs cross-talk, revealed that co-culturing OA SBOs with ACCs significantly enhanced the proteolytic activity and expression of MMP-2 and MMP-9. In turn, co-culture of OA ACCs with SBOs led to abundant MMP-2 expression in SBOs. Furthermore, we showed that the addition of ERK1/2 and JNK inhibitors reversed the elevated MMP-2 and MMP-9 production which otherwise resulted from the interactions of OA SBOs-ACCs. Thus, this study has demonstrated that the altered interactions between OA SBOs-ACCs are capable of triggering the pathological pathways leading to degenerative changes seen in the osteoarthritic joint. In conclusion, the body of work presented in this dissertation has given clear in vitro evidence that the altered bi-directional communication of SBOs and ACCs may play a role in OA development and that this process was mediated by MAPK signalling pathways. Targeting these altered interactions by the use of MAPK inhibitors may provide the scientific rationale for the development of novel therapeutic strategies in the treatment and management of OA.