A priori ratemaking using bivariate poisson regression models

In automobile insurance, it is useful to achieve a priori ratemaking by resorting to gene- ralized linear models, and here the Poisson regression model constitutes the most widely accepted basis. However, insurance companies distinguish between claims with or without bodily injuries, or claims with full or partial liability of the insured driver. This paper exa- mines an a priori ratemaking procedure when including two di®erent types of claim. When assuming independence between claim types, the premium can be obtained by summing the premiums for each type of guarantee and is dependent on the rating factors chosen. If the independence assumption is relaxed, then it is unclear as to how the tari® system might be a®ected. In order to answer this question, bivariate Poisson regression models, suitable for paired count data exhibiting correlation, are introduced. It is shown that the usual independence assumption is unrealistic here. These models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database containing 80,994 contracts belonging to a Spanish insurance company. Finally, the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using a bivariate Poisson regression model are analysed.

EFNS guidelines on diagnosis and management of neuromyelitis optica.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Neuromyelitis optica (NMO) or Devic's disease is a rare inflammatory and demyelinating autoimmune disorder of the central nervous system (CNS) characterized by recurrent attacks of optic neuritis (ON) and longitudinally extensive transverse myelitis (LETM), which is distinct from multiple sclerosis (MS). The guidelines are designed to provide guidance for best clinical practice based on the current state of clinical and scientific knowledge. SEARCH STRATEGY: Evidence for this guideline was collected by searches for original articles, case reports and meta-analyses in the MEDLINE and Cochrane databases. In addition, clinical practice guidelines of professional neurological and rheumatological organizations were studied. RESULTS: Different diagnostic criteria for NMO diagnosis [Wingerchuk et al. Revised NMO criteria, 2006 and Miller et al. National Multiple Sclerosis Society (NMSS) task force criteria, 2008] and features potentially indicative of NMO facilitate the diagnosis. In addition, guidance for the work-up and diagnosis of spatially limited NMO spectrum disorders is provided by the task force. Due to lack of studies fulfilling requirement for the highest levels of evidence, the task force suggests concepts for treatment of acute exacerbations and attack prevention based on expert opinion. CONCLUSIONS: Studies on diagnosis and management of NMO fulfilling requirements for the highest levels of evidence (class I-III rating) are limited, and diagnostic and therapeutic concepts based on expert opinion and consensus of the task force members were assembled for this guideline.

Alliance evolutions over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: A case study

Background: Alliance evolutions, i.e. ruptures and resolutions over the course of psychotherapy, have been shown to be important descriptive features in different forms of psychotherapy, and in particular in psychodynamic psychotherapy. This case study of a client presenting elements of adjustment disorder undergoing short-term dynamic psychotherapy is drawn from a systematic naturalistic study and aims at illustrating, on a session-by-session-level, the processes of alliance ruptures and resolutions, by comparing both the client's and the therapist's perspectives. Method: Two episodes of alliance evolution were more fully studied, in relation to the evolution of transference, as well as the client's defensive functioning and core conflictual theme. These concepts were measured by means of valid, reliable observer-rater methods, based on session transcripts: the Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales (DMRS) for defensive functioning and the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme (CCRT) for the conflicts. Alliance was measured after each session using the Helping Alliance questionnaire (HAq-II). Results: The results indicated that these episodes of alliance rupture and resolutions may be understood as key moments of the whole therapeutic process reflecting the client's main relationship stakes. Illustrations are provided based on the client's in-session processes and related to the alliance development over the course of the entire therapy.

Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.

Factors Affecting the Financial Success of Motion Pictures: What is the Role of Star Power?

In the mid-1940s, American film industry was on its way up to its golden era as studios started mass-producing iconic feature films. The escalating increase in popularity of Hollywood stars was actively suggested for its direct links to box office success by academics. Using data collected in 2007, this paper carries out an empirical investigation on how different factors, including star power, affect the revenue of ‘home-run’ movies in Hollywood. Due to the subjective nature of star power, two different approaches were used: (1) number of nominations and wins of Academy Awards by the key players, and (2) average lifetime gross revenue of films involving the key players preceding the sample year. It is found that number of Academy awards nominations and wins was not statistically significant in generating box office revenue, whereas star power based on the second approach was statistically significant. Other significant factors were critics’ reviews, screen coverage and top distributor, while number of Academy awards, MPAA-rating, seasonality, being a sequel and popular genre were not statistically significant.

The management of iron deficiency in inflammatory bowel disease--an online tool developed by the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency is a common and undertreated problem in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). AIM: To develop an online tool to support treatment choice at the patient-specific level. METHODS: Using the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method (RUAM), a European expert panel assessed the appropriateness of treatment regimens for a variety of clinical scenarios in patients with non-anaemic iron deficiency (NAID) and iron deficiency anaemia (IDA). Treatment options included adjustment of IBD medication only, oral iron supplementation, high-/low-dose intravenous (IV) regimens, IV iron plus erythropoietin-stimulating agent (ESA), and blood transfusion. The panel process consisted of two individual rating rounds (1148 treatment indications; 9-point scale) and three plenary discussion meetings. RESULTS: The panel reached agreement on 71% of treatment indications. 'No treatment' was never considered appropriate, and repeat treatment after previous failure was generally discouraged. For 98% of scenarios, at least one treatment was appropriate. Adjustment of IBD medication was deemed appropriate in all patients with active disease. Use of oral iron was mainly considered an option in NAID and mildly anaemic patients without disease activity. IV regimens were often judged appropriate, with high-dose IV iron being the preferred option in 77% of IDA scenarios. Blood transfusion and IV+ESA were indicated in exceptional cases only. CONCLUSIONS: The RUAM revealed high agreement amongst experts on the management of iron deficiency in patients with IBD. High-dose IV iron was more often considered appropriate than other options. To facilitate dissemination of the recommendations, panel outcomes were embedded in an online tool, accessible via http://ferroscope.com/.

Impaired early visual response modulations to spatial information in chronic schizophrenia.

Early visual processing stages have been demonstrated to be impaired in schizophrenia patients and their first-degree relatives. The amplitude and topography of the P1 component of the visual evoked potential (VEP) are both affected; the latter of which indicates alterations in active brain networks between populations. At least two issues remain unresolved. First, the specificity of this deficit (and suitability as an endophenotype) has yet to be established, with evidence for impaired P1 responses in other clinical populations. Second, it remains unknown whether schizophrenia patients exhibit intact functional modulation of the P1 VEP component; an aspect that may assist in distinguishing effects specific to schizophrenia. We applied electrical neuroimaging analyses to VEPs from chronic schizophrenia patients and healthy controls in response to variation in the parafoveal spatial extent of stimuli. Healthy controls demonstrated robust modulation of the VEP strength and topography as a function of the spatial extent of stimuli during the P1 component. By contrast, no such modulations were evident at early latencies in the responses from patients with schizophrenia. Source estimations localized these deficits to the left precuneus and medial inferior parietal cortex. These findings provide insights on potential underlying low-level impairments in schizophrenia.

Controlled study of 50-Hz repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation for the treatment of Parkinson disease.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the safety and efficacy of 50-Hz repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) in the treatment of motor symptoms in Parkinson disease (PD). BACKGROUND: Progression of PD is characterized by the emergence of motor deficits that gradually respond less to dopaminergic therapy. rTMS has shown promising results in improving gait, a major cause of disability, and may provide a therapeutic alternative. Prior controlled studies suggest that an increase in stimulation frequency might enhance therapeutic efficacy. METHODS: In this randomized, double blind, sham-controlled study, the authors investigated the safety and efficacy of 50-Hz rTMS of the motor cortices in 8 sessions over 2 weeks. Assessment of safety and clinical efficacy over a 1-month period included timed tests of gait and bradykinesia, Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS), and additional clinical, neurophysiological, and neuropsychological parameters. In addition, the safety of 50-Hz rTMS was tested with electromyography-electroencephalogram (EMG-EEG) monitoring during and after stimulation. RESULTS: The authors investigated 26 patients with mild to moderate PD: 13 received 50-Hz rTMS and 13 sham stimulation. The 50-Hz rTMS did not improve gait, bradykinesia, and global and motor UPDRS, but there appeared a short-lived "on"-state improvement in activities of daily living (UPDRS II). The 50-Hz rTMS lengthened the cortical silent period, but other neurophysiological and neuropsychological measures remained unchanged. EMG/EEG recorded no pathological increase of cortical excitability or epileptic activity. There were no adverse effects. CONCLUSION: It appears that 50-Hz rTMS of the motor cortices is safe, but it fails to improve motor performance and functional status in PD. Prolonged stimulation or other techniques with rTMS might be more efficacious but need to be established in future research.

Interoperability issues between learning object repositories and metadata harvesters

In this paper we describe an open learning object repository on Statistics based on DSpace which contains true learning objects, that is, exercises, equations, data sets, etc. This repository is part of a large project intended to promote the use of learning object repositories as part of the learning process in virtual learning environments. This involves the creation of a new user interface that provides users with additional services such as resource rating, commenting and so. Both aspects make traditional metadata schemes such as Dublin Core to be inadequate, as there are resources with no title or author, for instance, as those fields are not used by learners to browse and search for learning resources in the repository. Therefore, exporting OAI-PMH compliant records using OAI-DC is not possible, thus limiting the visibility of the learning objects in the repository outside the institution. We propose an architecture based on ontologies and the use of extended metadata records for both storing and refactoring such descriptions.

Inter-informant agreement and prevalence estimates for substance use disorders: direct interview versus family history method.

OBJECTIVES: Family studies typically use multiple sources of information on each individual including direct interviews and family history information. The aims of the present study were to: (1) assess agreement for diagnoses of specific substance use disorders between direct interviews and the family history method; (2) compare prevalence estimates according to the two methods; (3) test strategies to approximate prevalence estimates according to family history reports to those based on direct interviews; (4) determine covariates of inter-informant agreement; and (5) identify covariates that affect the likelihood of reporting disorders by informants. METHODS: Analyses were based on family study data which included 1621 distinct informant (first-degree relatives and spouses) - index subject pairs. RESULTS: Our main findings were: (1) inter-informant agreement was fair to good for all substance disorders, except for alcohol abuse; (2) the family history method underestimated the prevalence of drug but not alcohol use disorders; (3) lowering diagnostic thresholds for drug disorders and combining multiple family histories increased the accuracy of prevalence estimates for these disorders according to the family history method; (4) female sex of index subjects was associated with higher agreement for nearly all disorders; and (5) informants who themselves had a history of the same substance use disorder were more likely to report this disorder in their relatives, which entails the risk of overestimation of the size of familial aggregation. CONCLUSION: Our findings have important implications for the best-estimate procedure applied in family studies.

An epidemiological and clinical approach to adolescent suicide. A comparison between suicidal and non-suicidal clinical groups in a health foundation center for French students.

Suicidal behaviour among young people represents a major public health problem. This study seeks to compare the major sociological, clinical, schooling and family features of suicidal and non-suicidal subgroups of adolescents hospitalised in the Health Foundation Center for French Students of neufmoutiers en Brie (France). All these adolescents suffered from the severe mental disorders. The adolescents from the suicidal subgroup presented significantly fewer psychoses and more mood disorders than those of the non-suicidal subgroup. Half of the patients from the suicidal subgroup presented some features of personality disorders, mostly borderline personality disorders. Nevertheless, their global functioning was more frequently improved between admission and discharge than was the case for the non-suicidal group.

Beyond splitting: observer-rated defense mechanisms in borderline personality disorder

Defense mechanism is a key concept in the psychoanalytic psychopathology of borderline personality disorder (BPD). Theoretical and empirical elaborations on this question are briefly reviewed and discussed with respect to process assessment of defense mechanisms; we put forward observer-rater methodology as an accurate means of assessing unconscious in-session processes. A sample of 25 patients presenting with BPD were interviewed, as were subjects from a matched control group without psychiatric symptoms (n = 25), using a psychodynamic interview paradigm. These interviews were transcribed and rated using the Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales. The results indicate that, compared to controls, patients with BPD used higher percentages of a action, borderline, disavowal, narcissistic, and hysteric defenses, along with lower levels of mature and obsessional defenses. Overall defensive functioning was significantly lower in the patients with BPD, compared to controls. Narcissistic defenses were related with symptom level. These results are discussed in light of previous studies on defensive functioning of BPD and the literature on psychoanalytic psychopathology. These results have several important clinical implications.

A measure of the intensity of response to alcohol to screen for alcohol use disorders in primary care.

Alcohol-dependent subjects tend to report lower level of response to alcohol (LR) in the years before the disorder developed, compared to control subjects. The Self-Rating of the Effects of alcohol (SRE) score is a quick and valid retrospective estimate of LR. This study examined the associations between alcohol abuse or dependence and early experience of alcohol as measured on retrospective SRE score (relating to the first five times alcohol was imbibed), and the presence of alcohol abuse or dependence, in patients attending primary care. Higher Early SRE score (i.e. greater early tolerance of alcohol) was obtained in patients with an alcohol-related diagnosis than in patients without those diagnoses. Using a cut-off of 2 on the Early SRE score, the Early SRE score could discriminate between patients with and without an alcohol diagnosis with moderate to high sensitivity (84%) and modest specificity (57%).

Quetiapine dosage in bipolar disorder episodes and mixed states

OBJECTIVE: Although the maximal quetiapine doses in the published studies were restricted to 800 mg/day, higher quetiapine doses are not unusual in clinical practice. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness, tolerability and clinical reasons associated to the use of high dosage of quetiapine (>800 mg), when used under routine clinical conditions, in a sample of bipolar disorder and schizoaffective bipolar inpatients. METHODS: Charts of all bipolar and schizoaffective adult inpatients, who had received quetiapine for a mood episode between 1999 and 2005 were retrospectively reviewed. These charts also included the assessment of manic and depressive symptoms on admission and at discharge using the Beck-Rafaelsen Mania Scale (MAS) and the Montgomery Asberg depression rating scale (MADRS), respectively. RESULTS: Data of 50 patients were analyzed. The overall F in repeated measures ANOVA revealed a significant MAS scores reduction between admission and discharge. MAS scores reduction did not differ between the high and low quetiapine groups. Similarly, a significant MADRS reduction was found. Again, no differences between the high and the low dose group were found. Logistic regression analysis of the 50 patients revealed only mixed episodes predicted high quetiapine dosage. CONCLUSIONS: The present study confirms quetiapine efficiency and tolerability in the treatment of bipolar episodes, even in doses > to 800 mg and found a link between quetiapine doses and mixed episodes

Physicians' attitudes towards prevention: importance of intervention-specific barriers and physicians' health habits.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have explored physicians' attitudes towards prevention and barriers to the delivery of preventive health interventions. However, the relative importance of these previously identified barriers, both in general terms and in the context of a number of specific preventive interventions, has not been identified. Certain barriers may only pertain to a subset of preventive interventions. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine the relative importance of identified barriers to preventive interventions and to explore the association between physicians' characteristics and their attitudes towards prevention. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 496 of the 686 (72.3% response rate) generalist physicians from three Swiss cantons through a questionnaire asking physicians to rate the general importance of eight preventive health strategies and the relative importance of seven commonly cited barriers in relation to each specific preventive health strategy. RESULTS: The proportion of physicians rating each preventive intervention as being important varied from 76% for colorectal cancer screening to 100% for blood pressure control. Lack of time and lack of patient interest were generally considered to be important barriers by 41% and 44% of physicians, respectively, but the importance of these two barriers tended to be specifically higher for counselling-based interventions. Lack of training was most notably a barrier to counselling about alcohol and nutrition. Four characteristics of physicians predicted negative attitudes toward alcohol and smoking counselling: consumption of more than three alcoholic drinks per day [odds ratio (OR) = 8.4], sedentary lifestyle (OR = 3.4), lack of national certification (OR = 2.2) and lack of awareness of their own blood pressure (OR = 2.0). CONCLUSIONS: The relative importance of specific barriers varies across preventive interventions. This points to a need for tailored practice interventions targeting the specific barriers that impede a given preventive service. The negative influence of physicians' own health behaviours indicates a need for associated population-based interventions that reduce the prevalence of high-risk behaviours in the population as a whole.