Uncertainty Quantification with Support Vector Regression Prediction Models

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. The paper considers a data driven approach in modelling uncertainty in spatial predictions. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. It is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity, which is often difficult to achieve with two-point geostatistical models. Semi-supervised SVR is designed to integrate various kinds of conditioning data and learn dependences from them. A stochastic semi-supervised SVR model is integrated into a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty with multiple models fitted to dynamic observations. The developed approach is illustrated with a reservoir case study. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes.

Is Less Chemotherapy Detrimental in Adults with Philadelphia Chromosome (Ph)-Positive Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) Treated with High-Dose Imatinib? Results of the Prospective Randomized Graaph-2005 Study

Aim: To compare a less intensive regimen based on high-dose imatinib (IM) to an intensive IM/HyperCVAD regimen in adults with Ph+ ALL, in terms of early response and outcome after stem cell transplantation (SCT). Methods: Patients aged 18-60 years with previously untreated Ph+ ALL not evolving from chronic myeloid leukemia were eligible if no contra-indication to chemotherapy and SCT (ClinicalTrials.gov ID, NCT00327678). After a steroid prephase allowing Ph and/or BCR-ABL diagnosis, cycle 1 differed between randomization arms. In arm A (IM-based), IM was given at 800 mg on day 1-28, combined with vincristine (2 mg, day 1, 8, 15, 22) and dexamethasone (40 mg, day 1-2, 8-9, 15-16, and 22-23) only. In arm B (IM/HyperCVAD), IM was given at 800 mg on day 1-14, combined with adriamycin (50 mg/m2, day 4), cyclophosphamide (300 mg/m2/12h, day 1, 2, 3), vincristine (2 mg, day 4 and 11), and dexamethasone (40 mg, day 1-4 and 11-14). All patients received a cycle 2 combining high-dose methotrexate (1 g/m2, day 1) and AraC (3 g/m2/12h, day 2 and 3) with IM at 800 mg on day 1-14, whatever their response. Four intrathecal infusions were given during this induction/consolidation period. Minimal residual disease (MRD) was centrally evaluated by quantitative RQ-PCR after cycle 1 (MRD1) and cycle 2 (MRD2). Major MRD response was defined as BCR-ABL/ABL ratio <0.1%. Then, all patients were to receive allogeneic SCT using related or unrelated matched donor stem cells or autologous SCT if no donor and a major MRD2 response. IM/chemotherapy maintenance was planned after autologous SCT. In the absence of SCT, patients received alternating cycles 1 (as in arm B) and cycles 2 followed by maintenance, like in the published IM/HyperCVAD regimen. The primary objective was non-inferiority of arm A in term of major MRD2 response. Secondary objectives were CR rate, SCT rate, treatment- and transplant-related mortality, relapse-free (RFS), event-free (EFS) and overall (OS) survival. Results: Among the 270 patients randomized between May 2006 and August 2011, 265 patients were evaluable for this analysis (133 arm A, 132 arm B; median age, 47 years; median follow-up, 40 months). Main patient characteristics were well-balanced between both arms. Due to higher induction mortality in arm B (9 versus 1 deaths; P=0.01), CR rate was higher in the less intensive arm A (98% versus 89% after cycle 1 and 98% versus 91% after cycle 2; P= 0.003 and 0.006, respectively). A total of 213 and 205 patients were evaluated for bone marrow MRD1 and MRD2. The rates of patients reaching major MRD response and undetectable MRD were 45% (44% arm A, 46% arm B; P=0.79) and 10% (in both arms) at MRD1 and 66% (68% arm A, 63.5% arm B; P=0.56) and 25% (28% arm A, 22% arm B; P=0.33) at MRD2, respectively. The non-inferiority primary endpoint was thus demonstrated (P= 0.002). Overall, EFS was estimated at 42% (95% CI, 35-49) and OS at 51% (95% CI, 44-57) at 3 years, with no difference between arm A and B (46% versus 38% and 53% versus 49%; P=0.25 and 0.61, respectively). Of the 251 CR patients, 157 (80 arm A, 77 arm B) and 34 (17 in both arms) received allogeneic and autologous SCT in first CR, respectively. Allogeneic transplant-related mortality was similar in both arms (31.5% versus 22% at 3 years; P=0.51). Of the 157 allografted patients, 133 had MRD2 evaluation and 89 had MRD2 <0.1%. In these patients, MRD2 did not significantly influence post-transplant RFS and OS, either when tested with the 0.1% cutoff or as a continuous log covariate. Of the 34 autografted patients, 31 had MRD2 evaluation and, according to the protocol, 28 had MRD2 <0.1%. When restricting the comparison to patients achieving major MRD2 response and with the current follow-up, a trend for better results was observed after autologous as compared to allogeneic SCT (RFS, 63% versus 49.5% and OS, 69% versus 58% at 3 years; P=0.35 and P=0.08, respectively). Conclusions: In adults, the use of TK inhibitors (TKI) has markedly improved the results of Ph+ ALL therapy, now close to those observed in Ph-negative ALL. We demonstrated here that chemotherapy intensity may be safely reduced when associated with high-dose IM. We will further explore this TKI-based strategy using nilotinib prior to SCT in our next GRAAPH-2013 trial. The trend towards a better outcome after autologous compared to allogeneic SCT observed in MRD responders validates MRD as an important early surrogate endpoint for treatment stratification and new drug investigation in this disease.

Robotic Gait Training Is not Superior to Conventional Treadmill Training in Parkinson Disease: A Single-Blind Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: The use of robots for gait training in Parkinson disease (PD) is growing, but no evidence points to an advantage over the standard treadmill. METHODS: In this randomized, single-blind controlled trial, participants aged <75 years with early-stage PD (Hoehn-Yahr <3) were randomly allocated to 2 groups: either 30 minutes of gait training on a treadmill or in the Lokomat for 3 d/wk for 4 weeks. Patients were evaluated by a physical therapist blinded to allocation before and at the end of treatment and then at the 3- and 6-month follow-up. The primary outcome measure was the 6-minute walk test. RESULTS: Of 334 screened patients, the authors randomly allocated 30 to receive gait training with treadmill or the Lokomat. At baseline, the 2 groups did not differ. At the 6-month follow-up, both groups had improved significantly in the primary outcome measure (treadmill: mean = 490.95 m, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 448.56-533.34, P = .0006; Lokomat: 458.6 m, 95% CI = 417.23-499.96, P = .01), but no significant differences were found between the 2 groups (P = .53). DISCUSSION: Robotic gait training with the Lokomat is not superior to treadmill training in improving gait performance in patients with PD. Both approaches are safe, with results maintained for up to 6 months.

Change in defense mechanisms and coping patterns during the course of 2-year-long psychotherapy and psychoanalysis for recurrent depression: a pilot study of a randomized controlled trial.

Very little research has been conducted so far to study the potential mechanisms of change in long-term active psychological treatments of recurrent depression. The present pilot randomized controlled trial aimed to determine the feasibility of studying the change process occurring in patients during the course of 2-year-long dynamic psychotherapy, psychoanalysis, and cognitive therapy, as compared with clinical management. In total, eight outpatients presenting with recurrent depression, two patients per treatment arm, were included. All patients were randomly assigned to one of the four treatment conditions. Defense mechanisms and coping patterns were assessed using validated observer-rated methodology based on transcribed, semistructured follow-along independent dynamic interviews. The results indicated that, whereas some patients in the active treatments changed on the symptomatic levels, some others remained unchanged during the course of their 2-year-long treatment. However, with regard to potential mechanisms of change in these patients, changes in defense mechanisms and coping patterns were revealed to be important processes over time in successful therapies and, to a lesser extent, in less successful treatments. No change was found either on outcome or on the process measure for the control condition, that is, clinical management. These results are discussed along with previous data comparing change in defense mechanisms and coping during the course of treatments.

Enhanced radar precipitation estimates using a combined clutter and beam blockage correction technique

Weather radar observations are currently the most reliable method for remote sensing of precipitation. However, a number of factors affect the quality of radar observations and may limit seriously automated quantitative applications of radar precipitation estimates such as those required in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data assimilation or in hydrological models. In this paper, a technique to correct two different problems typically present in radar data is presented and evaluated. The aspects dealt with are non-precipitating echoes - caused either by permanent ground clutter or by anomalous propagation of the radar beam (anaprop echoes) - and also topographical beam blockage. The correction technique is based in the computation of realistic beam propagation trajectories based upon recent radiosonde observations instead of assuming standard radio propagation conditions. The correction consists of three different steps: 1) calculation of a Dynamic Elevation Map which provides the minimum clutter-free antenna elevation for each pixel within the radar coverage; 2) correction for residual anaprop, checking the vertical reflectivity gradients within the radar volume; and 3) topographical beam blockage estimation and correction using a geometric optics approach. The technique is evaluated with four case studies in the region of the Po Valley (N Italy) using a C-band Doppler radar and a network of raingauges providing hourly precipitation measurements. The case studies cover different seasons, different radio propagation conditions and also stratiform and convective precipitation type events. After applying the proposed correction, a comparison of the radar precipitation estimates with raingauges indicates a general reduction in both the root mean squared error and the fractional error variance indicating the efficiency and robustness of the procedure. Moreover, the technique presented is not computationally expensive so it seems well suited to be implemented in an operational environment.

Clinical usefulness of therapeutic concentration monitoring for imatinib dosage individualization: results from a randomized controlled trial.

PURPOSE: This study assessed whether a cycle of "routine" therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) for imatinib dosage individualization, targeting an imatinib trough plasma concentration (C min) of 1,000 ng/ml (tolerance: 750-1,500 ng/ml), could improve clinical outcomes in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) patients, compared with TDM use only in case of problems ("rescue" TDM). METHODS: Imatinib concentration monitoring evaluation was a multicenter randomized controlled trial including adult patients in chronic or accelerated phase CML receiving imatinib since less than 5 years. Patients were allocated 1:1 to "routine TDM" or "rescue TDM." The primary endpoint was a combined outcome (failure- and toxicity-free survival with continuation on imatinib) over 1-year follow-up, analyzed in intention-to-treat (ISRCTN31181395). RESULTS: Among 56 patients (55 evaluable), 14/27 (52 %) receiving "routine TDM" remained event-free versus 16/28 (57 %) "rescue TDM" controls (P = 0.69). In the "routine TDM" arm, dosage recommendations were correctly adopted in 14 patients (median C min: 895 ng/ml), who had fewer unfavorable events (28 %) than the 13 not receiving the advised dosage (77 %; P = 0.03; median C min: 648 ng/ml). CONCLUSIONS: This first target concentration intervention trial could not formally demonstrate a benefit of "routine TDM" because of small patient number and surprisingly limited prescriber's adherence to dosage recommendations. Favorable outcomes were, however, found in patients actually elected for target dosing. This study thus shows first prospective indication for TDM being a useful tool to guide drug dosage and shift decisions. The study design and analysis provide an interesting paradigm for future randomized TDM trials on targeted anticancer agents.

A vaccine against nicotine for smoking cessation: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco dependence is the leading cause of preventable death and disabilities worldwide and nicotine is the main substance responsible for the addiction to tobacco. A vaccine against nicotine was tested in a 6-month randomized, double blind phase II smoking cessation study in 341 smokers with a subsequent 6-month follow-up period. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 229 subjects were randomized to receive five intramuscular injections of the nicotine vaccine and 112 to receive placebo at monthly intervals. All subjects received individual behavioral smoking cessation counseling. The vaccine was safe, generally well tolerated and highly immunogenic, inducing a 100% antibody responder rate after the first injection. Point prevalence of abstinence at month 2 showed a statistically significant difference between subjects treated with Nicotine-Qbeta (47.2%) and placebo (35.1%) (P = 0.036), but continuous abstinence between months 2 and 6 was not significantly different. However, in subgroup analysis of the per-protocol population, the third of subjects with highest antibody levels showed higher continuous abstinence from month 2 until month 6 (56.6%) than placebo treated participants (31.3%) (OR 2.9; P = 0.004) while medium and low antibody levels did not increase abstinence rates. After 12 month, the difference in continuous abstinence rate between subjects on placebo and those with high antibody response was maintained (difference 20.2%, P = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: Whereas Nicotine-Qbeta did not significantly increase continuous abstinence rates in the intention-to-treat population, subgroup analyses of the per-protocol population suggest that such a vaccination against nicotine can significantly increase continuous abstinence rates in smokers when sufficiently high antibody levels are achieved. Immunotherapy might open a new avenue to the treatment of nicotine addiction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Swiss Medical Registry 2003DR2327; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00369616.

The prediction of speed and incline in outdoor running in humans using accelerometry.

PURPOSE: To explore whether triaxial accelerometric measurements can be utilized to accurately assess speed and incline of running in free-living conditions. METHODS: Body accelerations during running were recorded at the lower back and at the heel by a portable data logger in 20 human subjects, 10 men, and 10 women. After parameterizing body accelerations, two neural networks were designed to recognize each running pattern and calculate speed and incline. Each subject ran 18 times on outdoor roads at various speeds and inclines; 12 runs were used to calibrate the neural networks whereas the 6 other runs were used to validate the model. RESULTS: A small difference between the estimated and the actual values was observed: the square root of the mean square error (RMSE) was 0.12 m x s(-1) for speed and 0.014 radiant (rad) (or 1.4% in absolute value) for incline. Multiple regression analysis allowed accurate prediction of speed (RMSE = 0.14 m x s(-1)) but not of incline (RMSE = 0.026 rad or 2.6% slope). CONCLUSION: Triaxial accelerometric measurements allows an accurate estimation of speed of running and incline of terrain (the latter with more uncertainty). This will permit the validation of the energetic results generated on the treadmill as applied to more physiological unconstrained running conditions.

Validated prediction of clinical outcome in sarcomas and multiple types of cancer on the basis of a gene expression signature related to genome complexity.

Sarcomas are heterogeneous and aggressive mesenchymal tumors. Histological grading has so far been the best predictor for metastasis-free survival, but it has several limitations, such as moderate reproducibility and poor prognostic value for some histological types. To improve patient grading, we performed genomic and expression profiling in a training set of 183 sarcomas and established a prognostic gene expression signature, complexity index in sarcomas (CINSARC), composed of 67 genes related to mitosis and chromosome management. In a multivariate analysis, CINSARC predicts metastasis outcome in the training set and in an independent 127 sarcomas validation set. It is superior to the Fédération Francaise des Centres de Lutte Contre le Cancer grading system in determining metastatic outcome for sarcoma patients. Furthermore, it also predicts outcome for gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs), breast carcinomas and lymphomas. Application of the signature will permit more selective use of adjuvant therapies for people with sarcomas, leading to decreased iatrogenic morbidity and improved outcomes for such individuals.

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

A randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled trial of pioglitazone in combination with riluzole in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Pioglitazone, an oral anti-diabetic that stimulates the PPAR-gamma transcription factor, increased survival of mice with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a phase II, double blind, multicentre, placebo controlled trial of pioglitazone in ALS patients under riluzole. 219 patients were randomly assigned to receive 45 mg/day of pioglitazone or placebo (one: one allocation ratio). The primary endpoint was survival. Secondary endpoints included incidence of non-invasive ventilation and tracheotomy, and slopes of ALS-FRS, slow vital capacity, and quality of life as assessed using EUROQoL EQ-5D. The study was conducted under a two-stage group sequential test, allowing to stop for futility or superiority after interim analysis. Shortly after interim analysis, 30 patients under pioglitazone and 24 patients under placebo had died. The trial was stopped for futility; the hazard ratio for primary endpoint was 1.21 (95% CI: 0.71-2.07, p = 0.48). Secondary endpoints were not modified by pioglitazone treatment. Pioglitazone was well tolerated. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Pioglitazone has no beneficial effects on the survival of ALS patients as add-on therapy to riluzole. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00690118.