An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Lazer: significados e ressonâncias da educação não-formal do idoso

Pós-graduação em Ciências da Motricidade - IBRC

Concordance between Stages of Behavior Change Questionnaire and IPAQ

A low rate of physical activity (PA) participation is observed worldwide. The identification of feasible and reliable instruments able to accurately measuring PA and help in the development of interventions to promote PA are necessary. This study aimed to analyze the concordance between the Stages of Behavior Change Questionnaire (SBCQ) and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ long-version) in assessing adult leisure-time physical activity (LTPA). A total of 1.588 adults completed the IPAQ to assess LTPA and the participants who performed more than 10 min/week were classified in active individuals. Using the SBCQ, active individuals were those classified in the action or maintenance stage and inactive individuals were those classified in the precontemplation, contemplation or preparation stage. The concordance between SBCQ and IPAQ was found to be 0.80. Separated by gender, it was observed a concordance between the two instruments of 0.82 for women, and 0.77 for men. Regarding age group, it was found to be 0.81 for young and middle-aged adults, and 0.77 for older people. The SBCQ presented a very good concordance with IPAQ to assess LTPA.

Genetic parameters for body weight in buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) in Colombia using random regression models

The objective of this research was to estimate (co) variance functions and genetic parameters for body weight in Colombian buffalo populations using random regression models with Legendre polynomials. Data consisted of 34,738 weight records from birth to 900 days of age from 7815 buffaloes. Fixed effects in the model were contemporary group and parity order of the mother. Random effects were direct and maternal additive genetic, as well as animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. A cubic orthogonal Legendre polynomial was used to model the mean curve of the population. Eleven models with first to sixth order polynomials were used to describe additive genetic direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. The residual was modeled considering five variance classes. The best model included fourth and sixth order polynomials for direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, and third-order polynomials for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. The direct heritability increased from birth until 120 days of age (0.32 +/- 0.05), decreasing thereafter until one year of age (0.18 +/- 0.04) and increased again, reaching 0.39 +/- 0.09, at the end of the evaluated period. The highest maternal heritability estimates (0.11 +/- 0.05), were obtained for weights around weaning age (weaning age range is between 8 and 9.5 months). Maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental variances increased from birth until about one year of age, decreasing at later ages. Direct genetic correlations ranged from moderate (0.60 +/- 0.060) to high (0.99 +/- 0.001), maternal genetic correlations showed a similar range (0.41 +/- 0.401 and 0.99 +/- 0.003), and all of them decreased as time between weighings increased. Direct genetic correlations suggested that selecting buffalos for heavier weights at any age would increase weights from birth through 900 days of age. However, higher heritabilities for direct genetic weights effects after 600 days of age suggested that selection for these effects would be more effective if done during this age period. A greater response to selection for maternal ability would be expected if selection used maternal genetic predictions for weights near weaning. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time needed to schedule dermatological consultations in Brazil

BACKGROUND: It is not clear what the population's demand for dermatologists is, nor how many professionals are needed in order to provide adequate care in this area of expertise. Knowledge of the flow of patients at dermatological clinics throughout the country allows for the formation of expansion and distribution policies regarding professionals, and provides backing for the decision to increase medical residency places. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the time it takes to schedule a private dermatological consultation in Brazil, and other factors concerning consultations. METHODS: Survey with a random sample of 14% of Brazilian dermatologists, simulating the scheduling of emergency clinical and cosmetic consultations, and botulinum toxin procedures. Also, details relating to cost and professionals, were studied. Data were adjusted for each region of the country. RESULTS: A total of 873 dermatologists were evaluated. Full SBD members represented 85%, and 66% were women. The median time to schedule a consultation ranged from 6 (out-of-pocket payment) to 7 (medical insurance) consecutive working days. Times varied depending on the region. A multivariate analysis showed that out-of-pocket consultations and procedures were scheduled sooner than with medical insurance, regardless of whether they were clinical or cosmetic. CONCLUSION: The characteristics of dermatologists are varied throughout regions of the country. Private consultations and procedures are scheduled sooner than with insurance companies.

Time reduction of light curing: Influence on conversion degree and microhardness of orthodontic composites

Introduction: The aim of this study was to assess the influence of curing time and power on the degree of conversion and surface microhardness of 3 orthodontic composites. Methods: One hundred eighty discs, 6 mm in diameter, were divided into 3 groups of 60 samples according to the composite used-Transbond XT (3M Unitek, Monrovia, Calif), Opal Bond MV (Ultradent, South Jordan, Utah), and Transbond Plus Color Change (3M Unitek)-and each group was further divided into 3 subgroups (n = 20). Five samples were used to measure conversion, and 15 were used to measure microhardness. A light-emitting diode curing unit with multiwavelength emission of broad light was used for curing at 3 power levels (530, 760, and 1520 mW) and 3 times (8.5, 6, and 3 seconds), always totaling 4.56 joules. Five specimens from each subgroup were ground and mixed with potassium bromide to produce 8-mm tablets to be compared with 5 others made similarly with the respective noncured composite. These were placed into a spectrometer, and software was used for analysis. A microhardness tester was used to take Knoop hardness (KHN) measurements in 15 discs of each subgroup. The data were analyzed with 2 analysis of variance tests at 2 levels. Results: Differences were found in the conversion degree of the composites cured at different times and powers (P < 0.01). The composites showed similar degrees of conversion when light cured at 8.5 seconds (80.7%) and 6 seconds (79.0%), but not at 3 seconds (75.0%). The conversion degrees of the composites were different, with group 3 (87.2%) higher than group 2 (83.5%), which was higher than group 1 (64.0%). Differences in microhardness were also found (P < 0.01), with lower microhardness at 8.5 seconds (35.2 KHN), but no difference was observed between 6 seconds (41.6 KHN) and 3 seconds (42.8 KHN). Group 3 had the highest surface microhardness (35.9 KHN) compared with group 2 (33.7 KHN) and group 1 (30.0 KHN). Conclusions: Curing time can be reduced up to 6 seconds by increasing the power, with a slight decrease in the degree of conversion at 3 seconds; the decrease has a positive effect on the surface microhardness.

Anthropogenic edges, isolation and the flowering time and fruit set of Anadenanthera peregrina, a cerrado savanna tree

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The time course of aggressive behaviour in juvenile matrinxa Brycon amazonicus fed with dietary L-tryptophan supplementation

This study evaluated the influence of dietary L-tryptophan (TRP) supplementation on the time course of aggressive behaviour and on neuroendocrine and hormonal indicators in juvenile matrinxA Brycon amazonicus. Supplementation with TRP promoted a change in the fight pattern at the beginning of an interaction with an intruder, resulting in decreased aggressive behaviours during the first 20min. The decrease in aggression did not persist throughout the interaction but increased at 3 and 6h after the beginning of the fight. Monoamine levels in the hypothalamus were not influenced by TRP before or after the fight; however, the hypothalamic serotonin (5-HT) concentration and the 5-hydroxyindole-3-acetic acid (5HIAA):5-HT ratio were significantly correlated with the reduction in aggressive behaviour at the beginning of the fight. Cortisol was not altered by TRP before the fight. After the fight cortisol increased to higher levels in B. amazonicus fed with supplementary TRP. These results indicate that TRP supplementation alters the aggressive behaviour of B. amazonicus and that this effect is limited to the beginning of the fight, suggesting a transient effect of TRP on aggressive behaviour. This is the first study reporting the effects of TRP supplementation on the time course of aggressive interaction in fishes. (C) 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles

Previous exposure to musical auditory stimulation immediately influences the cardiac autonomic responses to the postural change maneuver in women

Background: Chronic exposure to musical auditory stimulation has been reported to improve cardiac autonomic regulation. However, it is not clear if music acutely influences it in response to autonomic tests. We evaluated the acute effects of music on heart rate variability (HRV) responses to the postural change maneuver (PCM) in women. Method: We evaluated 12 healthy women between 18 and 28 years old and HRV was analyzed in the time (SDNN, RMSSD, NN50 and pNN50) and frequency (LF, HF and LF/HF ratio) domains. In the control protocol, the women remained at seated rest for 10 minutes and quickly stood up within three seconds and remained standing still for 15 minutes. In the music protocol, the women remained at seated rest for 10 minutes, were exposed to music for 10 minutes and quickly stood up within three seconds and remained standing still for 15 minutes. HRV was recorded at the following time: rest, music (music protocol) 0–5, 5–10 and 10–15 min during standing. Results: In the control protocol the SDNN, RMSSD and pNN50 indexes were reduced at 10–15 minutes after the volunteers stood up, while the LF (nu) index was increased at the same moment compared to seated rest. In the protocol with music, the indexes were not different from control but the RMSSD, pNN50 and LF (nu) were different from the music period. Conclusion: Musical auditory stimulation attenuates the cardiac autonomic responses to the PCM.

Fractal correlation property of heart rate variability in response to the postural change maneuver in healthy women

Background: We evaluated the effects of the PCM on the fractal analysis of the HRV in healthy women Method: We evaluated healthy women between 18 and 30 years old. HRV was analyzed in the time (SDNN, RMSSD, NN50 and pNN50) and frequency (LF, HF and LF/HF ratio) domains as well as short and long-term fractal exponents (alpha-1 and alpha-2) of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). HRV was recorded at rest for ten minutes at seated rest and then the women quickly stood up from a seated position in up to three seconds and remained standing for 15 minutes. HRV was recorded at the following time: rest, 0–5 min, 5–10 min and 10–15 min during standing. Results: We observed decrease (p < 0.05) in the time-domain indices of HRV between seated and 10–15 minutes after the volunteer stood up. The LF (ms2) and HF (ms2) indices were also reduced (p < 0.05) at 10–15 minutes after the volunteer stood up compared to seated while the LF (nu) was increased at 5–10 min and 10–15 min (p < 0.05). The short-term alpha-1 exponent was increased (p < 0.05) at all moments investigated compared to seated. Increase in the properties of short-term fractal correlations of heart rate dynamics accompanied by a decrease in the parasympathetic modulation and global HRV was observed in response to the postural change maneuver. Conclusion: We suggest that fractal analysis of HRV is more sensitive than frequency and time-domain analysis of HRV during the postural change maneuver.

CHARACTERIZATION OF THE BRAZPD II COHORT AND DESCRIPTION OF TRENDS IN PERITONEAL DIALYSIS OUTCOME ACROSS TIME PERIODS

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Random regression models using different functions to model milk flow in dairy cows

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Tracking climatically suitable areas for an endemic Cerrado snake under climate change

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estudo da interação genótipo ambiente em búfalos leiteiros do Brasil e da Colômbia

Pós-graduação em Zootecnia - FCAV

Coherence characteristics of random lasing in a dye doped hybrid powder

The photon statistics of the random laser emission of a Rhodamine B doped di-ureasil hybrid powder is investigated to evaluate its degree of coherence above threshold. Although the random laser emission is a weighted average of spatially uncorrelated radiation emitted at different positions in the sample, a spatial coherence control was achieved due to an improved detection configuration based on spatial filtering. By using this experimental approach, which also allows for fine mode discrimination and timeresolved analysis of uncoupled modes from mode competition, an area not larger than the expected coherence size of the random laser is probed. Once the spectral and temporal behavior of nonoverlapping modes is characterized, an assessment of the photon-number probability distribution and the resulting second-order correlation coefficient as a function of time delay and wavelength was performed. The outcome of our single photon counting measurements revealed a high degree of temporal coherence at the time of maximum pump intensity and at wavelengths around the Rhodamine B gain maximum.