875 resultados para Probability of choice


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For many decades Palaeolithic research viewed the development of early modern human behaviour as largely one of progress down a path towards the modernity of the present. The European Palaeolithic sequence the most extensively studied was for a long time the yard-stick against which records from other regions were judged. Recent work undertaken in Africa and increasingly Asia, however, now suggests that the European evidence may tell a story that is more parochial and less universal than previously thought. While tracking developments at the large scale (the grand narrative) remains important, there is growing appreciation that to achieve a comprehensive understanding of human behavioural evolution requires an archaeologically regional perspective to balance this. One of the apparent markers of human modernity that has been sought in the global Palaeolithic record, prompted by finds in the European sequence, is innovation in bonebased technologies. As one step in the process of re-evaluating and contextualizing such innovations, in this article we explore the role of prehistoric bone technologies within the Southeast Asian sequence, where they have at least comparable antiquity to Europe and other parts of Asia. We observe a shift in the technological usage of bone from a minor component to a medium of choice during the second half of the Last Termination and into the Holocene. We suggest that this is consistent with it becoming a focus of the kinds of inventive behaviour demanded of foraging communities as they adapted to the far-reaching environmental and demographic changes that were reshaping this region at that time. This record represents one small element of a much wider, much longerterm adaptive process, which we would argue is not confined to the earliest instances of a particular technology or behaviour, but which forms part of an on-going story of our behavioural evolution. © 2012 The McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research.

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We examined a remnant host plant (Primula veris L.) habitat network that was last inhabited by the rare butterfly Hamearis lucina L. in north Wales in 1943, to assess the relative contribution of several spatial parameters to its regional extinction. We first examined relationships between P. veris characteristics and H. lucina eggs in surviving H. lucina populations, and used these to predict the suitability and potential carrying capacity of the habitat network in north Wales. This resulted in an estimate of roughly 4500 eggs (ca 227 adults). We developed a discrete space, discrete time metapopulation model to evaluate the relative contribution of dispersal distance, habitat and environmental stochasticity as possible causes of extinction. We simulated the potential persistence of the butterfly in the current network as well as in three artificial (historical and present) habitat networks that differed in the quantity (current and X3) and fragmentation of the habitat (current and aggregated). We identified that reduced habitat quantity and increased isolation would have increased the probability of regional extinction, in conjunction with environmental stochasticity and H. lucina's dispersal distance. This general trend did not change in a qualitative manner when we modified the ability of dispersing females to stay in, and find suitable habitats (by changing the size of the grid cells used in the model). Contrary to most metapopulation model predictions, system persistence declined with increasing migration rate, suggesting that the mortality of migrating individuals in fragmented landscapes may pose significant risks to system-wide persistence. Based on model predictions for the present landscape we argue that a major programme of habitat restoration would be required for a re-established metapopulation to persist for > 100 years.

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The monitoring of oral disease is important, not alone for oral health, but for the detection and prevention of
systemic disease. The link between oral health and systemic disease is the focus of many studies, with
indications emerging of a causal link [1]. For disease diagnostics, blood has typically been the fluid of choice
for analysis, the retrieval of which is invasive and therefore unsuitable for wearable technology. Analysis of
saliva, however, is less invasive than that of blood, requires little or no pre-treatment and is abundantly
available. A strong correlation has been found between the analytes of blood and saliva [2] with saliva
containing biomarkers for diseases such as diabetes, oral cancer and cardiovascular disease. The development of
an implantable multi-parametric wireless sensor, to monitor both salivary analytes and changes in gingival
temperature, is the aim of this research project.
The aim of our current study is to detect changes in salivary pH, using a gold electrode with a pHsensitive
iridium oxide layer, and an Ion Sensitive Field Effect Transistor probe. Characterisation studies were
carried out in artificial saliva (AS). A salivary pH of between 4.5pH-7.5pH [3], and gingival temperature
between 35°C-38°C [4], were identified as the target range of interest for the human oral environment. Sensor
measurements were recorded in solutions of varying pH and temperature. An ISFET probe was then implanted
into a prototype denture and characterised in AS. This study demonstrates the suitability of ISFET and gold
electrode pH sensors for incorporation into implantable oral sensors.
[1] G. Taylor and W. Borgnakke, “Periodontal disease: associations with diabetes, glycemic control and
complications,” Oral Dis., vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 191–203, Apr. 2008.
[2] E. Tékus, M. Kaj, E. Szabó, N. L. Szénási, I. Kerepesi, M. Figler, R. Gábriel, and M. Wilhelm,
“Comparison of blood and saliva lactate level after maximum intensity exercise,” Acta Biol. Hung., vol. 63
Suppl 1, pp. 89–98, 2012.
[3] S. Naveen, M. L. Asha, G. Shubha, A. Bajoria, and A. Jose, “Salivary Flow Rate, pH and Buffering
Capacity in Pregnant and Non Pregnant Women - A Comparative Study,” JMED Res., pp. 1–8, Feb. 2014.
[4] A. F. Holthuis and F. S. Chebib, “Observations on temperature and temperature patterns of the gingiva. I.
The effect of arch, region and health,” J. Periodontol., vol. 54, no. 10, pp. 624–628, Oct. 1983

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Many AMS systems can measure 14C, 13C and 12C simultaneously thus providing δ13C values which can be used for fractionation normalization without the need for offline 13C /12C measurements on isotope ratio mass spectrometers (IRMS). However AMS δ13C values on our 0.5MV NEC Compact Accelerator often differ from IRMS values on the same material by 4-5‰ or more. It has been postulated that the AMS δ13C values account for the potential graphitization and machine induced fractionation, in addition to natural fractionation, but how much does this affect the 14C ages or F14C? We present an analysis of F14C as a linear least squares fit with AMS δ13C results for several of our secondary standards. While there are samples for which there is an obvious correlation between AMS δ13C and F14C, as quantified with the calculated probability of no correlation, we find that the trend lies within one standard deviation of the variance on our F14C measurements. Our laboratory produces both zinc and hydrogen reduced graphite, and we present our results for each type. Additionally, we show the variance on our AMS δ13C measurements of our secondary standards.

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While the repeated nature of Discrete Choice Experiments is advantageous from a sampling efficiency perspective, patterns of choice may differ across the tasks, due, in part, to learning and fatigue. Using probabilistic decision process models, we find in a field study that learning and fatigue behavior may only be exhibited by a small subset of respondents. Most respondents in our sample show preference and variance stability consistent with rational pre-existent and
well formed preferences. Nearly all of the remainder exhibit both learning and fatigue effects. An important aspect of our approach is that it enables learning and fatigue effects to be explored, even though they were not envisaged during survey design or data collection.

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Bioresorbable polymers increasingly are the materials of choice for implantable orthopaedic fixation devices. Controlled degradation of these polymers is vital for preservation of mechanical properties during tissue repair and controlled release of incorporated agents such as osteoconductive or anti-microbial additives. The work outlined in this paper investigates the use of low energy electron beam irradiation to surface modify polyhydroxyacid samples incorporating beta tricalcium phosphate (β-TCP). This work uniquely demonstrates that surface modification of bioresorbable polymers through electron beam irradiation allows for the early release of incorporated agents such as bioactive additives. Samples were e-beam irradiated at an energy of 125 keV and doses of either 150 kGy or 500 kGy. Irradiated and non-irradiated samples were degraded in phosphate buffered saline (PBS), to simulate bioresorption, followed by characterisation. The results show that low energy e-beam irradiation enhances surface hydrolytic degradation in comparison to bulk and furthermore allows for earlier release of incorporated calcium via dissolution into the surrounding medium.

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Purpose Previously, it has been reported that molecular mobility determines the rate of molecular approach to crystal surfaces, while entropy relates to the probability of that approaching molecule having the desirable configuration for further growth of the existing crystal; and the free energy dictates the probability of that molecule not returning to the liquid phase1. If we plot the crystal growth rate and viscosity of a supercooled liquid in a log-log format, the relationship between the two is linear, indicating the influence viscosity has upon crystal growth rate. However, such approximation has been derived from pure drug compounds and it is apparent that further understanding of crystallization from drug-polymer solid dispersion is required in order to stabilise drugs embedded within amorphous polymeric solid dispersions. Methods Mixtures of felodipine and polymer (HPMCAS-HF, PVPK15 and Soluplus®) at specified compositions were prepared using a Restch MM200 ball mill. To examine crystal growth within amorphous solid dispersions, samples were prepared by melting 5-10 mg of ball milled mixture at 150°C for 3-5 minutes on a glass slip pre-cleaned with methanol and acetone. All prepared samples were confirmed to be crystal free by visual observation using a polarised light microscope (Olympus BX50). Prepared samples were stored at 0% RH (P2O5), inside desiccators, maintained in ovens at 80°C. For the dynamic viscosity measurement, approximately 100-200mg ball milled mixture was heated on the base plate of a rotational rheometer at 150°C for 5 minutes and the top plate was lowered to a defined gap to form a good contact with the material. The sandwiched amorphous material was heated to 80°C and the viscosity was measured. Results The equation was used to probe the correlation of viscosity to crystal growth rate. In comparison to the value of xi in log-log equation reported from pure drug compound, a value of 1.63 was obtained for FD-polymer solid dispersions irrespective of the polymer involved. &#8733 Conclusion The high xi value suggests stronger viscosity dependence may exist for amorphous FD once incorporated with amorphous polymer.

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We previously reported a randomized trial comparing Cyclosporin-A (CsA) and short-term methotrexate versus CsA alone for graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) prophylaxis in 71 patients undergoing allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) from a human leucocyte antigen-identical sibling for severe aplastic anaemia (SAA). We found a better survival in the group receiving the two-drug prophylaxis regimen with no significant difference in the probability of developing GvHD between the two groups. The present study details chimaeric analysis and its influence on survival and GvHD occurrence in 45 of the original 71 patients in whom serial samples were available. Analysis was carried out in a blinded prospective manner. Seventy-two per cent achieved complete donor chimaerism (DC), 11% stable mixed chimaerism (SMC) and 17% progressive mixed chimaerism (PMC). The overall 5-year survival probability was 82% (+/-11%) with a significant survival advantage (P = 0.0009) in DC or SMC compared to those with PMC. Chronic GvHD was more frequent in DC patients, whereas no patient with SMC developed chronic GvHD. Graft failure occurred in 50% of the PMC group. This study demonstrates the relevance of chimaerism analysis in patients receiving HSCT for SAA and confirms the occurrence of mixed chimaerism in a significant proportion of recipients.

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A randomized trial was carried out comparing cyclosporin A (CsA) and short-term methotrexate (MTX) versus CsA alone for graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis in patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) undergoing allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) from a compatible sibling. Seventy-one patients (median age, 19 years; range, 4-46 years) were randomized to receive either CsA and MTX or CsA alone for the first 3 weeks after BMT. Subsequently, both groups received CsA orally, with gradual drug reduction until discontinuation 8 to 12 months after BMT. Patients randomized in both arms had comparable characteristics and received the same preparative regimen (ie, cyclophosphamide 200 mg/kg over 4 days). The median time for neutrophil engraftment was 17 days (range, 11-31 days) and 12 days (range, 4-45 days) for patients in the CsA/MTX group and the CsA alone group, respectively (P =.01). No significant difference was observed in the probability of either grade 2, grade 3, or grade 4 acute GVHD or chronic GVHD developing in the 2 groups. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of 1-year transplantation-related mortality rates for patients given either CsA/MTX or CsA alone were 3% and 15%, respectively (P =.07). With a median follow-up of 48 months from BMT, the 5-year survival probability is 94% for patients in the CsA/MTX group and 78% for those in the CsA alone group (P =. 05). These data indicate that the use of CsA with MTX is associated with improved survival in patients with SAA who receive transplants from compatible siblings. (Blood. 2000;96:1690-1697)

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Many governments world-wide are promoting longer working life due to the social and economic repercussions of demographic change. However, not all workers are equally able to extend their employment careers. Thus, while national policies raise the overall level of labour market participation, they might create new social and labour market inequalities. This paper explores how institutional differences in the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan affect individual retirement decisions on the aggregate level, and variations in individuals’ degree of choice within and across countries. We investigate which groups of workers are disproportionately at risk of being ‘pushed’ out of employment, and how such inequalities have changed over time. We use comparable national longitudinal survey datasets focusing on the older population in England, Germany and Japan. Results point to cross-national differences in retirement transitions. Retirement transitions in Germany have occurred at an earlier age than in England and Japan. In Japan, the incidence of involuntary retirement is the lowest, reflecting an institutional context prescribing that employers provide employment until pension age, while Germany and England display substantial proportions of involuntary exits triggered by organisational-level redundancies, persistent early retirement plans or individual ill-health.

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In this paper, we propose a sparse multi-carrier index keying (MCIK) method for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system, which uses the indices of sparse sub-carriers to transmit the data, and improve the performance
of signal detection in highly correlated sub-carriers. Although a receiver is able to exploit a power gain with precoding in OFDM, the sensitivity of the signal detection is usually high as the orthogonality is not retained in highly dispersive
environments. To overcome this, we focus on developing the trade-off between the sparsity of the MCIK, correlation, and performances, analyzing the average probability of the error propagation imposed by incorrect index detection over highly correlated sub-carriers. In asymptotic cases, we are able to see how sparsity of MCIK should be designed in order to perform superior to the classical OFDM system. Based on this feature, sparse MCIK based OFDM is a better choice for low detection errors in highly correlated sub-carriers.

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One of the main challenges faced by the nuclear industry is the long-term confinement of nuclear waste. Because it is inexpensive and easy to manufacture, cement is the material of choice to store large volumes of radioactive materials, in particular the low-level medium-lived fission products. It is therefore of utmost importance to assess the chemical and structural stability of cement containing radioactive species. Here, we use ab initio calculations based on density functional theory (DFT) to study the effects of 90Sr insertion and decay in C-S-H (calcium-silicate-hydrate) in order to test the ability of cement to trap and hold this radioactive fission product and to investigate the consequences of its β-decay on the cement paste structure. We show that 90Sr is stable when it substitutes the Ca2+ ions in C-S-H, and so is its daughter nucleus 90Y after β-decay. Interestingly, 90Zr, daughter of 90Y and final product in the decay sequence, is found to be unstable compared to the bulk phase of the element at zero K but stable when compared to the solvated ion in water. Therefore, cement appears as a suitable waste form for 90Sr storage.

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Murid gammaherpesvirus 4 (MuHV-4) is widely used as a small animal model for understanding gammaherpesvirus infections in man. However, there have been no epidemiological studies of the virus in wild populations of small mammals. As MuHV-4 both infects cells associated with the respiratory and immune systems and attempts to evade immune control via various molecular mechanisms, infection may reduce immunocompetence with potentially serious fitness consequences for individuals. Here we report a longitudinal study of antibody to MuHV-4 in a mixed assemblage of bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) and wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) in the UK. The study was conducted between April 2001 and March 2004. Seroprevalence was higher in wood mice than bank voles, supporting earlier work that suggested wood mice were the major host even though the virus was originally isolated from a bank vole. Analyses of both the probability of having antibodies and the probability of initial seroconversion indicated no clear seasonal pattern or relationship with host density. Instead, infection risk was most closely associated with individual characteristics, with heavier males having the highest risk. This may reflect individual variation in susceptibility, potentially related to variability in the ability to mount an effective immune response.

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Parasitism is hypothesized to reduce reproductive success in heavily parasitized males because females
may preferentially mate with less parasitized males (parasite-mediated sexual selection) or parasites may compromise
male competitiveness. In marine systems, this hypothesis is largely unexplored. This paper provides the first confirmed record of a copepod ectoparasite (Caligus buechlerae Hewitt 1964) on the common triplefin (Forsterygion lapillum) and evaluates the hypothesis that males parasitized with C. buechlerae experience lower reproductive success than unparasitized males (as determined
by the presence and area of eggs within male nests). We found that 38 % of males we surveyed were infected with
at least one C. buechlerae, with a median of two individuals per infected male. About 32 % of males were defending
eggs, with 62.5 % of those males infected with at least one parasite. Males of greater total length (TL) were both
more likely to be infected and more likely to be defending eggs. However, when statistically accounting for the effects
of TL, parasite infection had no effect on the probability of defending eggs, or the average surface area of eggs when
present. Positive covariation in fish length, the presence of eggs and parasite infection observed here potentially suggest
that the importance of parasitic infection on reproductive success may depend upon the strength of selection for larger male body size. Our study is one of the few studies to investigate the effects of ectoparasites on reproductive success in reef fish and also provides a quantitative measure of infection for a widespread species within New Zealand.

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Background: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.

Methods: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.
Findings: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women.

Interpretation: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.