Bagging and the Bayesian Bootstrap

Bagging is a method of obtaining more ro- bust predictions when the model class under consideration is unstable with respect to the data, i.e., small changes in the data can cause the predicted values to change significantly. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian ver- sion of bagging based on the Bayesian boot- strap. The Bayesian bootstrap resolves a the- oretical problem with ordinary bagging and often results in more efficient estimators. We show how model averaging can be combined within the Bayesian bootstrap and illustrate the procedure with several examples.

Are the reference values of B cell subpopulations used in adults for classification of common variable immunodeficiencies appropriate for children?

Detailed phenotypic characterization of B cell subpopulations is of utmost importance for the diagnosis and management of humoral immunodeficiencies, as they are used for classification of common variable immunodeficiencies. Since age-specific reference values remain scarce in the literature, we analysed by flow cytometry the proportions and absolute values of total, memory, switched memory and CD21(-/low) B cells in blood samples from 168 healthy children (1 day to 18 years) with special attention to the different subpopulations of CD21(low) B cells. The percentages of total memory B cells and their subsets significantly increased up to 5-10 years. In contrast, the percentages of immature CD21(-) B cells and of immature transitional CD21(low)CD38(hi) B cells decreased progressively with age, whereas the percentage of CD21(low) CD38(low) B cells remained stable during childhood. Our data stress the importance of age-specific reference values for the correct interpretation of B cell subsets in children as a diagnostic tool in immunodeficiencies.

Surface area, porosity and water adsorption properties of fine volcanic ash particles

Our understanding on how ash particles in volcanic plumes react with coexisting gases and aerosols is still rudimentary, despite the importance of these reactions in influencing the chemistry and dynamics of a plume. In this study, six samples of fine ash (<100 μm) from different volcanoes were measured for their specific surface area, as, porosity and water adsorption properties with the aim to provide insights into the capacity of silicate ash particles to react with gases, including water vapour. To do so, we performed high-resolution nitrogen and water vapour adsorption/desorption experiments at 77 K and 303 K, respectively. The nitrogen data indicated as values in the range 1.1-2.1 m2/g, except in one case where as of 10 m2/g was measured. This high value is attributed to incorporation of hydrothermal phases, such as clay minerals, in the ash surface composition. The data also revealed that the ash samples are essentially non-porous, or have a porosity dominated by macropores with widths >500 Å All the specimens had similar pore size distributions, with a small peak centered around 50 Å These findings suggest that fine ash particles have relatively undifferentiated surface textures, irrespective of the chemical composition and eruption type. Adsorption isotherms for water vapour revealed that the capacity of the ash samples for water adsorption is systematically larger than predicted from the nitrogen adsorption as values. Enhanced reactivity of the ash surface towards water may result from (i) hydration of bulk ash constituents; (ii) hydration of surface compounds; and/or (iii) hydroxylation of the surface of the ash. The later mechanism may lead to irreversible retention of water. Based on these experiments, we predict that volcanic ash is covered by a complete monolayer of water under ambient atmospheric conditions. In addition, capillary condensation within ash pores should allow for deposition of condensed water on to ash particles before water reaches saturation in the plume. The total mass of water vapour retained by 1 g of fine ash at 0.95 relative water vapour pressure is calculated to be ∼10-2 g. Some volcanic implications of this study are discussed. © Springer-Verlag 2004.

Expression of liver-specific member of the 3β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase family, an isoform possessing an almost exclusive 3-ketosteroid reductase activity

We have recently characterized two types of rat 3β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase/Δ5-Δ4 isomerase (3β-HSD) isoenzymes expressed in adrenals and gonads. In addition, we have cloned a third type of cDNA encoding a predicted type III 3β-HSD protein specifically expressed in the male rat liver which shares 80% similarity with the two other isoenzymes. Transient expression in human HeLa cells of the cDNAs reveals that the type III 3β-HSD protein does not display oxidative activity for the classical substrates of 3β-HSD, in contrast to the type I 3β-HSD isoenzyme. However, in the presence of NADH, type III isoenzyme, in common with the type I isoform, converts 5α-androstane-3,17-dione (A-dione) and 5α-dihydrotestosterone (DHT) to the corresponding 3β-hydroxysteroids. In fact, the type I and the type III isoenzymes have the same affinity for DHT with K(m) values of 5.05 and 6.16 μM, respectively. When NADPH is used as cofactor, the affinity for DHT of the type III isoform becomes higher than that of the type I isoform with K(m) values of 0.12 and 1.18 μM, respectively. The type III isoform is thus a 3-ketoreductase using NADPH as preferred cofactor which is responsible for the conversion of 3-keto-saturated steroids such as DHT and A-dione into less active steroids.

pKa values of aqua ligands of platinum (II) anticancer complexes: [1H, 15N] and 195Pt NMR Studies of cis- and trans- [PtCl2 (NH3) (Cyclohexylamine)]

Syntheses and NMR studies are reported of two 15N-labelled Pt(II) complexes of anticancer interest: cis-PtCl2(15NH3)(c-C6H1115NH2), a metabolite of the orally-active Pt(IV) complex cis,trans,cis-[PtCl2(acetate)2(c-C6H11NH2)(NH3), and trans-[PtCl2(15NH3)(c-C6H1115NH2), a reduction product of the active Pt(IV) complex trans,trans,trans-[PtCl2(OH)2(c-C6H11NH2). For cis-[PtCl2(15NH3)(c-C6H1115NH2), hydrolysis was faster for the chloride ligand trans to cyclohexylamine, and the pKa values determined by [1H, 15N NMR spectroscopy for the two cis monoaqua isomers were the same (6.73). The trans monoaqua complex was a stronger acid with pKa of 5.4 (determined by 195Pt NMR). For the cis diaqua complex, pKa values of 5.68 and 7.68 were determined.

Dynamic analysis of Flip-Chip Self-Alignment

Self-alignment of soldered electronic components such as flip-chips (FC), ball grid arrays (BGA) and optoelectronic devices during solder reflow is important as it ensures good alignment between components and substrates. Two uncoupled analytical models are presented which provide estimates of the dynamic time scales of both the chip and the solder in the self-alignment process. These predicted time scales can be used to decide whether a coupled dynamic analysis is required for the analysis of the chip motion. In this paper, we will show that for flip-chips, the alignment dynamics can be described accurately only when the chip motion is coupled with the solder motion because the two have similar time-scale values. To study this coupled phenomenon, a dynamic modeling method has been developed. The modeling results show that the uncoupled and coupled calculations result in significantly different predictions. The calculations based on the coupled model predict much faster rates of alignment than those predicted using the uncoupled approach.

Case based adaptation using interpolation over nominal values

In this paper we propose a method for interpolation over a set of retrieved cases in the adaptation phase of the case-based reasoning cycle. The method has two advantages over traditional systems: the first is that it can predict “new” instances, not yet present in the case base; the second is that it can predict solutions not present in the retrieval set. The method is a generalisation of Shepard’s Interpolation method, formulated as the minimisation of an error function defined in terms of distance metrics in the solution and problem spaces. We term the retrieval algorithm the Generalised Shepard Nearest Neighbour (GSNN) method. A novel aspect of GSNN is that it provides a general method for interpolation over nominal solution domains. The method is illustrated in the paper with reference to the Irises classification problem. It is evaluated with reference to a simulated nominal value test problem, and to a benchmark case base from the travel domain. The algorithm is shown to out-perform conventional nearest neighbour methods on these problems. Finally, GSNN is shown to improve in efficiency when used in conjunction with a diverse retrieval algorithm.

Predicting HCl concentrations in fire enclosures using an HCl decay model coupled to a CFD-based fire field model

The amount of atmospheric hydrogen chloride (HCl) within fire enclosures produced from the combustion of chloride-based materials tends to decay as the fire effluent is transported through the enclosure due to mixing with fresh air and absorption by solids. This paper describes an HCl decay model, typically used in zone models, which has been modified and applied to a computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based fire field model. While the modified model still makes use of some empirical formulations to represent the deposition mechanisms, these have been reduced from the original three to two through the use of the CFD framework. Furthermore, the effect of HCl flow to the wall surfaces on the time to reach equilibrium between HCl in the boundary layer and on wall surfaces is addressed by the modified model. Simulation results using the modified HCl decay model are compared with data from three experiments. The model is found to be able to reproduce the experimental trends and the predicted HCl levels are in good agreement with measured values

Individual crisis episodes and cultural transition: finding the macrocosm in the microcosm

According to dialogical self theory (Hermans, 2001), individual identities reflect cultural and subcultural values, and appropriate voices and discourses from the social environment. Bronfenbrenner’s (1979) systemic theory of human development similarly postulates that individual and social development occur in a symbiotic and interdependent fashion. It would therefore be predicted that individual changes in identity reflect macrocosmic changes in cultural values and social structures. The current study investigated narratives of crisis transitions within adults aged 25-40, by way of interviews with 22 participants. An intensive qualitative analysis showed that the narratives of crisis could indeed be viewed as individual manifestations of contemporary cultural changes. National statistics and academic research have documented in the UK substantial cultural shifts over the last twenty years including the lessening popularity of marriage, the rise of freelance and portfolio careers and the growth of accepted alternative gender roles. In individual crises, changes made over the course of the episode were invariably in the same direction as these social changes; towards flexible work patterns, non-marital relationships and redefined gender identities. Before the crisis, participants described their identity as bound into an established discourse of conventionality, a traditional sense of masculinity or feminitity and a singular career role, while after the crisis alternative and fluid identities are explored, and identity is less defined by role and institution. These findings show that changes in the social macrocosm can be found in the individual microcosm, and therefore support dialogical self theory.