STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

Zebrafish (Danio rerio) neuromast: promising biological endpoint linking developmental and toxicological studies

Aquatic toxicology is facing the challenge to assess the impact of complex mixtures of compounds on diverse biological endpoints. So far, ecotoxicology focuses mainly on apical endpoints such as growth, lethality and reproduction, but does not consider sublethal toxic effects that may indirectly cause ecological effects. One such sublethal effect is toxicant-induced impairment of neurosensory functions which will affect important behavioural traits of exposed organisms. Here, we critically review the mechanosensory lateral line (LL) system of zebrafish as a model to screen for chemical effects on neurosensory function of fish in particular and vertebrates in general. The LL system consists of so-called neuromasts, composed of centrally located sensory hair cells, and surrounding supporting cells. The function of neuromasts is the detection of water movements that is essential for the fish's ability to detect prey, to escape predator, to socially interact or to show rheotactic behaviour. Recent advances in the study of these organs provided researchers with a broad area of molecular tools for easy and rapid detection of neuromasts dysfunction and/or disturbed development. Further, genes involved in neuromasts differentiation have been identified using auditory/mechanosensory mutants and morphants. A number of environmental toxicants including metals and pharmaceuticals have been shown to affect neuromasts development and/or function. The use of the LL organ for toxicological studies offers the advantage to integrate the available profound knowledge on developmental biology of the neuromasts with the study of chemical toxicity. This combination may provide a powerful tool in environmental risk assessment.

Cryptic invertebrates on subtidal rocky reefs vary with microhabitat structure and protection from fishing

The deployment of flat concrete blocks on subtidal rocky reefs can replicate natural reef microhabitats and provides a means for standardized sampling of cryptic invertebrates. The shape of the cavity beneath the block is related to reef topography and may influence the invertebrate community by affecting the amount of space for cryptic fauna to colonise and influencing the effectiveness of their predator-defence mechanisms. To determine the effect of sub-block reef structure and different levels of external predators on cryptic molluscs and echinoderms, I deployed concrete blocks at locations inside and outside the Maria Island marine reserve in eastern Tasmania, Australia. Relationships between sub-block reef structure and the cryptic invertebrate assemblage were evident between locations, whereas only a small but significant proportion of variation of assemblages between blocks within location was explained by reef surface area. No clear association with external predation pressure was evident in multivariate analyses of variation in assemblage structure. Juvenile abalone Haliotis rubra were not influenced by micro-habitat structure but were significantly less abundant at protected locations, the only species to exhibit such a response. This result follows a decline of emergent adult abalone in the marine reserve and raises the possibility of recruitment failure of abalone at some fully protected locations in the longer term.

Sexual dimorphism dominates divergent host plant use in stick insect trophic morphology

Background: Clear examples of ecological speciation exist, often involving divergence in trophic morphology. However, substantial variation also exists in how far the ecological speciation process proceeds, potentially linked to the number of ecological axes, traits, or genes subject to divergent selection. In addition, recent studies highlight how differentiation might occur between the sexes, rather than between populations. We examine variation in trophic morphology in two host-plant ecotypes of walking-stick insects (Timema cristinae), known to have diverged in morphological traits related to crypsis and predator avoidance, and to have reached an intermediate point in the ecological speciation process. Here we test how host plant use, sex, and rearing environment affect variation in trophic morphology in this species using traditional multivariate, novel kernel density based and Bayesian morphometric analyses. Results: Contrary to expectations, we find limited host-associated divergence in mandible shape. Instead, the main predictor of shape variation is sex, with secondary roles of population of origin and rearing environment. Conclusion: Our results show that trophic morphology does not strongly contribute to host-adapted ecotype divergence in T. cristinae and that traits can respond to complex selection regimes by diverging along different intraspecific lines, thereby impeding progress toward speciation.

Herbivore identity mediates the strength of trophic cascades on individual plants

The strength of top-down indirect effects of carnivores on plants (trophic cascades) varies greatly and may depend on the identity of the intermediate (herbivore) species. If the effect strength is linked to functional traits of the herbivores then this would allow for more general predictions. Due to the generally sub-lethal effects of herbivory in terrestrial systems, trophic cascades manifest themselves in the first instance in the fitness of individual plants, affecting both their numerical and genetic contributions to the population. We directly compare the indirect predator effects on growth and reproductive output of individual Vicia faba plants mediated by the presence of two aphid species: Acyrtosiphon pisum is characterised by a boom and bust strategy whereby colonies grow fast and overexploit their host plant individual while Megoura viciae appear to follow a more prudent strategy that avoids over-exploitation and death of the host plant.Plants in the field were infested with A. pisum, M. viciae or both and half the plants were protected from predators. Exposure to predators had a strong impact on the biomass of individual plants and the strength of this effect differed significantly between the different herbivore treatments.A. pisum had a greater direct impact on plants and this was coupled with a significantly stronger indirect predator effect on plant biomass.Although the direct impact of predators was strongest on M. viciae, this was not transmitted to the plant level, indicating that the predator-prey interactions strength is not as important as the plant-herbivore link for the magnitude of the indirect predator impact. At the individual plant level, the indirect predator effect was purely due to consumptive effects on herbivore densities with no evidence for increased herbivore dispersal in response to presence of predators. The nature of plant-herbivore interactions is the key to terrestrial trophic cascade strength. The two herbivores that we compared were similar in feeding mode and body size but differed their way how they exploit host plants, which was the important trait explaining the strength of the trophic cascade.

Seasonal changes in the behaviour and respiration physiology of the freshwater duck mussel, Anodonta anatina.

For low-energy organisms such as bivalves, the costs of thermal compensation of biological rates (synonymous with acclimation or acclimatization) may be higher than the benefits. We therefore conducted two experiments to examine the effect of seasonal temperature changes on behaviour and oxygen consumption. In the first experiment, we examined the effects of seasonal temperature changes on the freshwater bivalve Anodonta anatina, taking measurements each month for a year at the corresponding temperature for that time of year. There was no evidence for compensation of burrowing valve closure duration or frequency, or locomotory speed. In the second experiment, we compared A. anatina at summer and winter temperatures (24 and 4°C, respectively) and found no evidence for compensation of the burrowing rate, valve closure duration or frequency, or oxygen consumption rates during burrowing, immediately after valve closure or at rest. Within the experimental limits of this study, the evidence suggests that thermal compensation of biological rates is not a strategy employed by A. anatina. We argue that this is due to either a lack of evolutionary pressure to acclimatize, or evolutionary pressure to not acclimatize. Firstly, there is little incentive to increase metabolic rate to enhance predatory ability given that these are filter feeders. Secondly, maintained low energetic demand, enhanced at winter temperatures, is essential for predator avoidance, i.e. valve closure. Thus, we suggest that the costs of acclimatization outweigh the benefits in A. anatina.

The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores

Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom-up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top-down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non-harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide-ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions.

Eco-evolutionary Dynamics of Individual-Based Food Webs

The past decade has seen the rise of high resolution datasets. One of the main surprises of analysing such data has been the discovery of a large genetic, phenotypic and behavioural variation and heterogeneous metabolic rates among individuals within natural populations. A parallel discovery from theory and experiments has shown a strong temporal convergence between evolutionary and ecological dynamics, but a general framework to analyse from individual-level processes the convergence between ecological and evolutionary dynamics and its implications for patterns of biodiversity in food webs has been particularly lacking. Here, as a first approximation to take into account intraspecific variability and the convergence between the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in large food webs, we develop a model from population genomics and microevolutionary processes that uses sexual reproduction, genetic-distance-based speciation and trophic interactions. We confront the model with the prey consumption per individual predator, species-level connectance and prey–predator diversity in several environmental situations using a large food web with approximately 25,000 sampled prey and predator individuals. We show higher than expected diversity of abundant species in heterogeneous environmental conditions and strong deviations from the observed distribution of individual prey consumption (i.e. individual connectivity per predator) in all the environmental conditions. The observed large variance in individual prey consumption regardless of the environmental variability collapsed species-level connectance after small increases in sampling effort. These results suggest (1) intraspecific variance in prey–predator interactions has a strong effect on the macroscopic properties of food webs and (2) intraspecific variance is a potential driver regulating the speed of the convergence between ecological and evolutionary dynamics in species-rich food webs. These results also suggest that genetic–ecological drift driven by sexual reproduction, equal feeding rate among predator individuals, mutations and genetic-distance-based speciation can be used as a neutral food web dynamics test to detect the ecological and microevolutionary processes underlying the observed patterns of individual and species-based food webs at local and macroecological scales.

Chapter Six – Individual Trait Variation and Diversity in Food Webs

In recent years, there has been a renewed interest in the ecological consequences of individual trait variation within populations. Given that individual variability arises from evolutionary dynamics, to fully understand eco-evolutionary feedback loops, we need to pay special attention to how standing trait variability affects ecological dynamics. There is mounting empirical evidence that intra-specific phenotypic variation can exceed species-level means, but theoretical models of multi-trophic species coexistence typically neglect individual-level trait variability. What is needed are multispecies datasets that are resolved at the individual level that can be used to discriminate among alternative models of resource selection and species coexistence in food webs. Here, using one the largest individual-based datasets of a food web compiled to date, along with an individual trait-based stochastic model that incorporates Approximate Bayesian computation methods, we document intra-population variation in the strength of prey selection by different classes or predator phenotypes which could potentially alter the diversity and coexistence patterns of food webs. In particular, we found that strongly connected individual predators preferentially consumed common prey, whereas weakly connected predators preferentially selected rare prey. Such patterns suggest that food web diversity may be governed by the distribution of predator connectivity and individual trait variation in prey selection. We discuss the consequences of intra-specific variation in prey selection to assess fitness differences among predator classes (or phenotypes) and track longer term food web patterns of coexistence accounting for several phenotypes within each prey and predator species.

Inference in Ecology: The Sea Urchin Phenomenon in the Northwestern Atlantic

We have reviewed the considerable body of research into the sea urchin phenomenon responsible for the alternation between macroalgal beds and coralline barrens in the northwestern Atlantic. In doing so, we have identified problems with both the scientific approach and the interpretation of results. Over a period of approximately 20 years, explanations for the phenomenon invoked four separate scenarios, which changed mainly as a consequence of extraneous events rather than experimental testing. Our specific concerns are that results contrary to the keystone-predator paradigm for the American lobster were circumvented, system components of the various scenarios became accepted without testing, and modifications of some components appeared arbitrary. Our review illustrates dilemmas that, we suggest, have hindered ecological progress in general. We argue for a more rigorous experimental approach, based on sound natural-history observations and strong inference. Moreover, we believe that the scientific community needs to be cautious about allowing paradigms to become established without adequate scrutiny.

Different Early Post-Settlement Strategies Between American Lobsters Homarus Americanus and Rock Crabs Cancer Irroratus in the Gulf of Maine

The abundance of many invertebrates with planktonic larval stages can be determined shortly after they reach the benthos. In this study, we quantified patterns of abundance and habitat utilization of early benthic phases of the American lobster Homarus americanus and the rock crab Cancer irroratus. These 2 decapods are among the most common and abundant macroinvertebrates in coastal zones of the Gulf of Maine, with similar densities of larger individuals. Settlement and early postsettlement survival indicate that lobsters are highly substrate-specific early in life, settling predominantly in cobble beds. Crabs appear to be less selective, setting both in cobble and sand. Cumulative settlement of crabs, inferred from weekly censuses over the summer, was an order of magnitude greater than that of lobsters over the same time period. However, only crabs showed significant postsettlement losses. Although the identity of specific predators is unknown, predator exclusion experiments and placement of vacant uninhabited nursery habitat suggested that post-settlement mortality rather than emigration was responsible for these losses. The selective habitat-seeking behavior and lower post-settlement mortality of lobsters is consistent with their lower fecundity and later onset of reproductive maturity. The patterns observed for crabs, however, suggest a different strategy which is more in accordance with their higher fecundity and earlier onset of maturity. It is possible that lower fecundity but greater per-egg investment, along with strict habitat selection at settlement and lower post-settlement mortality, allows adult lobster populations to equal adult populations of crabs. This occurs despite crabs being more fecund and less habitat-selective settlers but sustaining higher postsettlement mortality.

Kelp Forest Ecosystems: Biodiversity, Stability, Resilience and Future

Kelp forests are phyletically diverse, structurally complex and highly productive components of cold-water rocky marine coastlines. This paper reviews the conditions in which kelp forests develop globally and where, why and at what rate they become deforested. The ecology and long archaeological history of kelp forests are examined through case studies from southern California, the Aleutian Islands and the western North Atlantic, well-studied locations that represent the widest possible range in kelp forest biodiversity. Global distribution of kelp forests is physiologically constrained by light at high latitudes and by nutrients, warm temperatures and other macrophytes at low latitudes. Within mid-latitude belts (roughly 40-60degrees latitude in both hemispheres) well-developed kelp forests are most threatened by herbivory, usually from sea urchins. Overfishing and extirpation of highly valued vertebrate apex predators often triggered herbivore population increases, leading to widespread kelp deforestation. Such deforestations have the most profound and lasting impacts on species-depauperate systems, such as those in Alaska and the western North Atlantic. Globally urchin-induced deforestation has been increasing over the past 2-3 decades. Continued fishing down of coastal food webs has resulted in shifting harvesting targets from apex predators to their invertebrate prey, including kelp-grazing herbivores. The recent global expansion of sea urchin harvesting has led to the widespread extirpation of this herbivore, and kelp forests have returned in some locations but, for the first time, these forests are devoid of vertebrate apex predators. In the western North Atlantic, large predatory crabs have recently filled this void and they have become the new apex predator in this system. Similar shifts from fish- to crab-dominance may have occurred in coastal zones of the United Kingdom and Japan, where large predatory finfish were extirpated long ago. Three North American case studies of kelp forests were examined to determine their long history with humans and project the status of future kelp forests to the year 2025. Fishing impacts on kelp forest systems have been both profound and much longer in duration than previously thought. Archaeological data suggest that coastal peoples exploited kelp forest organisms for thousands of years, occasionally resulting in localized losses of apex predators, outbreaks of sea urchin populations and probably small-scale deforestation. Over the past two centuries, commercial exploitation for export led to the extirpation of sea urchin predators, such as the sea otter in the North Pacific and predatory fishes like the cod in the North Atlantic. The largescale removal of predators for export markets increased sea urchin abundances and promoted the decline of kelp forests over vast areas. Despite southern California having one of the longest known associations with coastal kelp forests, widespread deforestation is rare. It is possible that functional redundancies among predators and herbivores make this most diverse system most stable. Such biodiverse kelp forests may also resist invasion from non-native species. In the species-depauperate western North Atlantic, introduced algal competitors carpet the benthos and threaten future kelp dominance. There, other non-native herbivores and predators have become established and dominant components of this system. Climate changes have had measurable impacts on kelp forest ecosystems and efforts to control the emission of greenhouse gasses should be a global priority. However, overfishing appears to be the greatest manageable threat to kelp forest ecosystems over the 2025 time horizon. Management should focus on minimizing fishing impacts and restoring populations of functionally important species in these systems.

Resource-Mediated Indirect Effects of Grassland Management on Arthropod Diversity

Intensive land use is a driving force for biodiversity decline in many ecosystems. In semi-natural grasslands, land-use activities such as mowing, grazing and fertilization affect the diversity of plants and arthropods, but the combined effects of different drivers and the chain of effects are largely unknown. In this study we used structural equation modelling to analyse how the arthropod communities in managed grasslands respond to land use and whether these responses are mediated through changes in resource diversity or resource quantity (biomass). Plants were considered resources for herbivores which themselves were considered resources for predators. Plant and arthropod (herbivores and predators) communities were sampled on 141 meadows, pastures and mown pastures within three regions in Germany in 2008 and 2009. Increasing land-use intensity generally increased plant biomass and decreased plant diversity, mainly through increasing fertilization. Herbivore diversity decreased together with plant diversity but showed no response to changes in plant biomass. Hence, land-use effects on herbivore diversity were mediated through resource diversity rather than quantity. Land-use effects on predator diversity were mediated by both herbivore diversity (resource diversity) and herbivore quantity (herbivore biomass), but indirect effects through resource quantity were stronger. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing both direct and indirect effects of land-use intensity and mode on different trophic levels. In addition to the overall effects, there were subtle differences between the different regions, pointing to the importance of regional land-use specificities. Our study underlines the commonly observed strong effect of grassland land use on biodiversity. It also highlights that mechanistic approaches help us to understand how different land-use modes affect biodiversity.

Antipredator defences of young are independently determined by genetic inheritance, maternal effects and own early experience in mouthbrooding cichlids.

1. Predation is a prime force of natural selection. Vulnerability to predation is typically highest early in life, hence effective antipredator defences should work already shortly after birth. Such early defences may be innate, transmitted through non-genetic parental effects or acquired by own early experience. 2. To understand potential joint effects of these sources of antipredator defences on pheno- typic expression, they should be manipulated within the same experiment. We investigated innate, parental and individual experience effects within a single experiment. Females of the African cichlid Simochromis pleurospilus were exposed to the offspring predator Ctenochromis horei or a benign species until spawning. Eggs and larvae were hand-reared, and larvae were then exposed to odour cues signalling the presence or absence of predators in a split-brood design. 3. Shortly after independence of maternal care, S. pleurospilus undergo a habitat shift from a deeper, adult habitat to a shallow juvenile habitat, a phase where young are thought to be par- ticularly exposed to predation risk. Thus, maternal effects induced by offspring predators pres- ent in the adult habitat should take effect mainly shortly after independence, whereas own experience and innate antipredator responses should shape behaviour and life history of S. pleurospilus during the later juvenile period. 4. We found that the manipulated environmental components independently affected different offspring traits. (i) Offspring of predator-exposed mothers grew faster during the first month of life and were thus larger at termination of maternal care, when the young migrate from the adult to the juvenile habitat. (ii) The offspring’s own experience shortly after hatching exerted lasting effects on predator avoidance behaviour. (iii) Finally, our results suggest that S. pleuro- spilus possess a genetically inherited ability to distinguish dangerous from benign species. 5. In S. pleurospilus, maternal effects were limited to a short but critical time window, when young undergo a niche shift. Instead, own environmental sampling of predation risk combined with an innate predisposition to correctly identify predators appears to prepare the young best for the environment, in which they grow up as juveniles.

Long-term trends in invertebrate–habitat relationships under protected and fished conditions

Few studies examine the long-term effects of changing predator size and abundance on the habitat associations of resident organisms despite that this knowledge is critical to understand the ecosystem effects of fishing. Marine reserves offer the opportunity to determine ecosystem-level effects of manipulated predator densities, while parallel monitoring of adjacent fished areas allows separating these effects from regional-scale change. Relationships between two measures of benthic habitat structure (reef architecture and topographic complexity) and key invertebrate species were followed over 17 years at fished and protected subtidal rocky reefs associated with two southern Australian marine reserves. Two commercially harvested species, the southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) and blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) were initially weakly associated with habitat structure across all fished and protected sites. The strength of association with habitat for both species increased markedly at protected sites 2 years after marine reserve declaration, and then gradually weakened over subsequent years. The increasing size of rock lobster within reserves apparently reduced their dependency on reef shelters as refuges from predation. Rising predation by fish and rock lobster in the reserves corresponded with weakening invertebrate–habitat relationships for H. rubra and sea urchins (Heliocidaris erythrogramma). These results emphasise that animal–habitat relationships are not necessarily stable through time and highlight the value of marine reserves as reference sites. Our work shows that fishery closures to enhance populations of commercially important and keystone species should be in areas with a range of habitat features to accommodate shifting ecological requirements with ontogenesis.