Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Maintenance of Traffic for Innovative Geometric Design Work Zones, 2015

Currently there are no guidelines within the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) on construction phasing and maintenance of traffic (MOT) for retrofit construction and maintenance projects involving innovative geometric designs. The research presented in this report addressed this gap in existing knowledge by investigating the state of the practice of construction phasing and MOT for several types of innovative geometric designs including the roundabout, single point urban interchange (SPUI), diverging diamond interchange (DDI), restricted-crossing left turn (RCUT), median U-turn (MUT), and displaced left turn (DLT). This report provides guidelines for transportation practitioners in developing construction phasing and MOT plans for innovative geometric designs. This report includes MOT Phasing Diagrams to assist in the development of MOT strategies for innovative designs. The MOT Phasing Diagrams were developed through a review of literature, survey, interviews with practitioners, and review of plans from innovative geometric design projects. These diagrams are provided as a tool to assist in improving work zone safety and mobility through construction of projects with innovative geometric designs. The aforementioned synthesis of existing knowledge documented existing practices for these types of designs.

Stab wounds in a Swiss emergency department: a series of 80 consecutive cases.

Background: Interpersonal violence is a worldwide social reality which seems to increasingly affect even the safest of countries, such as Switzerland. In this country, road traffic accidents, as well as professional and recreational activities, are the main providers of trauma-related injuries. The incidence of penetrative trauma related to stab wounds seems to be regularly increasing in our ED. The question arises of whether our strategies in trauma management are adapted to deal efficiently with these injuries.Methods: To answer this question, the study analysed patients admitted for intentional penetrative injuries in a tertiary urban emergency department (ED) during a 23 month period. Demographics, conditions of the assault, injury type and treatments applied were analysed.Results: Eighty patients admitted due to an intentional penetrating trauma accounted for 0.2% of the surgical practice of our ED. The assault occurred equally in a public or a private context, mainly affecting young males during the night and the weekend. Sixty six patients (83%) were treated as out-patients. Only 10 patients needed surgery. None of them required damage control surgery. No patient died and the mean hospital stay was 5.5 days.Conclusions: The prevalence of stab wounds in Switzerland is low. These injuries rarely need complex, surgical procedures. Observational strategies should be considered according to the patient status.

The neural basis for writing from dictation in the temporoparietal cortex.

Cortical electrical stimulation mapping was used to study neural substrates of the function of writing in the temporoparietal cortex. We identified the sites involved in oral language (sentence reading and naming) and writing from dictation, in order to spare these areas during removal of brain tumours in 30 patients (23 in the left, and 7 in the right hemisphere). Electrostimulation of the cortex impaired writing ability in 62 restricted cortical areas (.25 cm2). These were found in left temporoparietal lobes and were mostly located along the superior temporal gyrus (Brodmann's areas 22 and 42). Stimulation of right temporoparietal lobes in right-handed patients produced no writing impairments. However there was a high variability of location between individuals. Stimulation resulted in combined symptoms (affecting oral language and writing) in fourteen patients, whereas in eight other patients, stimulation-induced pure agraphia symptoms with no oral language disturbance in twelve of the identified areas. Each detected area affected writing in a different way. We detected the various different stages of the auditory-to-motor pathway of writing from dictation: either through comprehension of the dictated sentences (word deafness areas), lexico-semantic retrieval, or phonologic processing. In group analysis, barycentres of all different types of writing interferences reveal a hierarchical functional organization along the superior temporal gyrus from initial word recognition to lexico-semantic and phonologic processes along the ventral and the dorsal comprehension pathways, supporting the previously described auditory-to-motor process. The left posterior Sylvian region supports different aspects of writing function that are extremely specialized and localized, sometimes being segregated in a way that could account for the occurrence of pure agraphia that has long-been described in cases of damage to this region.

Natural aphrodisiacs: studies of commercially-available herbal recipes, and phytochemical investigation of "Erythroxylum vacciniifolium" Mart. (Erythroxylaceae) from Brazil

De tout temps, hommes et femmes ont cherché par tous les moyens à développer, préserver ou recouvrer leurs propres capacités sexuelles mais également à stimuler le désir du partenaire. L?utilisation d?aphrodisiaques naturels a été l?un des recours les plus répandus. De nos jours, la commercialisation de nouvelles "love drugs" de synthèse, e.g. Viagra®, Cialis®, Levitra®, a remis au goût du jour les aphrodisiaques classiques et à relancer la recherche sur des molécules nouvelles. La pratique croissante de l?automédication, le matraquage publicitaire sur les aphrodisiaques naturels, la prolifération sur le marché de compléments alimentaires non contrôlés et l?absence de véritable législation accroissent les risques qui pèsent sur la santé publique. Dans le but d?évaluer les risques potentiels sur le consommateur de produits aphrodisiaques commercialisés, le développement et la validation d?une méthode rapide d?analyse qualitative et quantitative de la yohimbine dans ces préparations du marché sont exposés dans la première partie de ce travail. La yohimbine est un antagoniste ?2-adrénocepteur du système nerveux central et périphérique, elle est employée depuis plus d?un siècle dans le traitement des dysfonctionnements érectiles. Cette méthode analytique utilise la chromatographie liquide couplée à l?ultraviolet et à la spectrométrie de masse (LC-UV-MS) et au total, vingt préparations aphrodisiaques ont été étudiées. La dose journalière de yohimbine mesurée s?est révélée très variable selon les produits puisqu?elle varie de 1.32 à 23.16 mg. La seconde partie de ce travail concerne l?étude phytochimique et pharmacologique d?Erythroxylum vacciniifolium Mart. (Erythroxylaceae), une plante, appelée localement catuaba, utilisée dans la médecine traditionnelle brésilienne comme tonique et aphrodisiaque. Dans un premier temps, l?extrait alcaloïdique a été analysé par chromatographie liquide haute performance (HPLC) couplée soit à un détecteur UV à barrette d?iode (LC-UV-DAD), soit à un spectromètre de masse (LC-MS), ou soit à un spectromètre de résonance magnétique nucléaire (LC-RMN). L?interprétation de ces données spectrales enregistrées en ligne a permis d?obtenir des informations structurales et d?identifier partiellement près de 24 alcaloïdes appartenant à la classe des tropanes et potentiellement originaux. Par des méthodes classiques de chromatographie liquide sur l?extrait alcaloïdique de la plante, dix sept tropanes nouveaux ont ensuite été isolés dont les catuabines et leurs dérivés, et les vaccinines. Tous ces composés sont des tropane-diols ou triols estérifiés par au moins un groupe acide 1-méthyl-1H-pyrrole-2-carboxylique. Un de ces composés a été identifié comme un tropane N-oxyde. Toutes les structures ont été déterminées par spectrométrie de masse haute résolution et spectroscopie RMN multi-dimensionnelle. Parmi les nombreux tests biologiques réalisés sur ces tropanes, seuls les tests de cytotoxicité se sont révélés faiblement positifs pour certains de ces composés.<br/><br/>Throughout the ages, men and women have incessantly pursued every means to increase, preserve or recapture their sexual capacity, or to stimulate the sexual desire of selected individuals. One of the most recurrent methods has been the use of natural aphrodisiacs. Nowadays, the commercialization of new synthetic "love drugs", e.g. Viagra®, Cialis® and Levitra®, has fascinated the public interest and has led to a reassessment of classical aphrodisiacs and to the search for new ones. The practice of self-medication by an increasing number of patients, the incessant aggressive advertising of these herbal aphrodisiacs, the invasion of the medicinal market with uncontrolled dietary supplements and the absence of real directives amplifies the potential health hazards to the community. In order to evaluate the possible risks of commercialized aphrodisiac products on consumer health, the development and validation of a rapid qualitative and quantitative method for the analysis of yohimbine in these products, is reported in the first part of the present work. Yohimbine, a pharmacologically well-characterized ?2-adrenoceptor antagonist with activity in the central and peripheral nervous system, has been used for over a century in the treatment of erectile dysfunction. The analytical method is based on liquid chromatography coupled with ultraviolet and mass spectrometry (LC-UV-MS) and in total, 20 commercially-available aphrodisiac preparations were analyzed. The amount of yohimbine measured and expressed as the maximal dose per day suggested on product labels ranged from 1.32 to 23.16 mg. The second part of this work involved the phytochemical and pharmacological investigation of Erythroxylum vacciniifolium Mart. (Erythroxylaceae), a plant used in Brazilian traditional medicine as an aphrodisiac and tonic, and locally known as catuaba. With the aim of obtaining preliminary structure information on-line, the alkaloid extract was analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) coupled to diode array UV detection (LC-UVDAD), to mass spectrometry (LC-MS) and to nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (LCNMR). Interpretation of on-line spectroscopic data led to structure elucidation and partial identification of 24 potentially original alkaloids bearing the same tropane skeleton. Seventeen new tropane alkaloids were then isolated from the alkaloid extract of the plant, including catuabines D to I, their derivatives and vaccinines A and B. All compounds were elucidated as tropane-diol or -triol alkaloids esterified by at least one 1-methyl-1H-pyrrole-2-carboxylic acid. One of the isolated compounds was identified as a tropane alkaloid N-oxide. Their structures were determined by high resolution mass spectrometry and multi-dimensional NMR spectroscopy. Among the numerous bioassays undertaken, only the cytotoxicity tests exhibited a weak positive activity of certain compounds.

Observations on Software Testing Practice

This thesis investigates factors that affect software testing practice. The thesis consists of empirical studies, in which the affecting factors were analyzed and interpreted using quantitative and qualitative methods. First, the Delphi method was used to specify the scope of the thesis. Secondly, for the quantitative analysis 40industry experts from 30 organizational units (OUs) were interviewed. The survey method was used to explore factors that affect software testing practice. Conclusions were derived using correlation and regression analysis. Thirdly, from these 30 OUs, five were further selected for an in-depth case study. The data was collected through 41 semi-structured interviews. The affecting factors and their relationships were interpreted with qualitative analysis using grounded theory as the research method. The practice of software testing was analyzed from the process improvement and knowledge management viewpoints. The qualitative and quantitativeresults were triangulated to increase the validity of the thesis. Results suggested that testing ought to be adjusted according to the business orientation of the OU; the business orientation affects the testing organization and knowledge management strategy, and the business orientation andthe knowledge management strategy affect outsourcing. As a special case, the complex relationship between testing schedules and knowledge transfer is discussed. The results of this thesis can be used in improvingtesting processes and knowledge management in software testing.

The importance of sonographer experience and machine quality with regards to the role of musculoskeletal ultrasound in routine care of rheumatoid arthritis patients.

OBJECTIVES: Regarding recent progress, musculoskeletal ultrasound (US) will probably soon be integrated in standard care of patient with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, in daily care, quality of US machines and level of experience of sonographers are varied. We conducted a study to assess reproducibility and feasibility of an US scoring for RA, including US devices of different quality and rheumatologist with various levels of expertise in US as it would be in daily care. METHODS: The Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism (SONAR) group has developed a semi-quantitative score using OMERACT criteria for synovitis and erosion in RA. The score was taught to 108 rheumatologists trained in US. One year after the last workshop, 19 rheumatologists participated in the study. Scans were performed on 6 US machines ranging from low to high quality, each with a different patient. Weighted kappa was calculated for each pair of readers. RESULTS: Overall, the agreement was fair to moderate. Quality of device, experience of the sonographers and practice of the score before the study improved substantially the agreement. Agreement assessed on higher quality machine, among sonographers with good experience in US increased to substantial (median kappa for B-mode and Doppler: 0.64 and 0.41 for erosion). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated feasibility and reproducibility of the Swiss US SONAR score for RA. Our results confirmed importance of the quality of US machine and the training of sonographers for the implementation of US scoring in the routine daily care of RA.

Re-writing and Its Pedagogical Value: A Case Study

Tenint en compte el temps i la energia que els mestres i professors dediquen a la correcció de redaccions i produccions escrites i el poc efecte que aquestes semblen tenir en altres produccions dels aprenents, es va dissenyar la recerca que es presenta en aquest article. Els resultats de l'estudi semblen suggerir que les correccions no faciliten l'aprenentatge. Com presentem aquesta activitat de retroalimentació a l'alumnat i la posició que li donem dins d'un enfocament basat en el procés de l'escriptura seran clau per fer que les correccions siguin facilitadores de l'aprenentatge de la producció escrita.

The Role of the Subjectivist Position in the Probabilization of Forensic Science

This paper is concerned with the contribution of forensic science to the legal process by helping reduce uncertainty. Although it is now widely accepted that uncertainty should be handled by probability because it is a safeguard against incoherent proceedings, there remain diverging and conflicting views on how probability ought to be interpreted. This is exemplified by the proposals in scientific literature that call for procedures of probability computation that are referred to as "objective," suggesting that scientists ought to use them in their reporting to recipients of expert information. I find such proposals objectionable. They need to be viewed cautiously, essentially because ensuing probabilistic statements can be perceived as making forensic science prescriptive. A motivating example from the context of forensic DNA analysis will be chosen to illustrate this. As a main point, it shall be argued that such constraining suggestions can be avoided by interpreting probability as a measure of personal belief, that is, subjective probability. Invoking references to foundational literature from mathematical statistics and philosophy of science, the discussion will explore the consequences of this interdisciplinary viewpoint for the practice of forensic expert reporting. It will be emphasized that-as an operational interpretation of probability-the subjectivist perspective enables forensic science to add value to the legal process, in particular by avoiding inferential impasses to which other interpretations of probability may lead. Moreover, understanding probability from a subjective perspective can encourage participants in the legal process to take on more responsibility in matters regarding the coherent handling of uncertainty. This would assure more balanced interactions at the interface between science and the law. This, in turn, provides support for ongoing developments that can be called the "probabilization" of forensic science.

The polymorhism of crime scene investigation: an exploratory analysis of the influence of crime and forensic intelligence on decisions made by crime scene examiners

A growing body of scientific literature recurrently indicates that crime and forensic intelligence influence how crime scene investigators make decisions in their practices. This study scrutinises further this intelligence-led crime scene examination view. It analyses results obtained from two questionnaires. Data have been collected from nine chiefs of Intelligence Units (IUs) and 73 Crime Scene Examiners (CSEs) working in forensic science units (FSUs) in the French speaking part of Switzerland (six cantonal police agencies). Four salient elements emerged: (1) the actual existence of communication channels between IUs and FSUs across the police agencies under consideration; (2) most CSEs take into account crime intelligence disseminated; (3) a differentiated, but significant use by CSEs in their daily practice of this kind of intelligence; (4) a probable deep influence of this kind of intelligence on the most concerned CSEs, specially in the selection of the type of material/trace to detect, collect, analyse and exploit. These results contribute to decipher the subtle dialectic articulating crime intelligence and crime scene investigation, and to express further the polymorph role of CSEs, beyond their most recognised input to the justice system. Indeed, they appear to be central, but implicit, stakeholders in intelligence-led style of policing.

Paediatric end-of-life care needs in Switzerland: current practices, and perspectives from parents and professionals. A study protocol.

AIM: To present a protocol for a multi-phase study about the current practice of end-of-life care in paediatric settings in Switzerland. BACKGROUND: In Switzerland, paediatric palliative care is usually provided by teams, who may not necessarily have specific training. There is a lack of systematic data about specific aspects of care at the end of a child's life, such as symptom management, involvement of parents in decision-making and family-centred care and experiences and needs of parents, and perspectives of healthcare professionals. DESIGN: This retrospective nationwide multicentre study, Paediatric End-of-LIfe CAre Needs in Switzerland (PELICAN), combines quantitative and qualitative methods of enquiry. METHODS: The PELICAN study consists of three observational parts, PELICAN I describes practices of end-of-life care (defined as the last 4 weeks of life) in the hospital and home care setting of children (0-18 years) who died in the years 2011-2012 due to a cardiac, neurological or oncological disease, or who died in the neonatal period. PELICAN II assesses the experiences and needs of parents during the end-of-life phase of their child. PELICAN III focuses on healthcare professionals and explores their perspectives concerning the provision of end-of-life care. CONCLUSION: This first study across Switzerland will provide comprehensive insight into the current end-of-life care in children with distinct diagnoses and the perspectives of affected parents and health professionals. The results may facilitate the development and implementation of programmes for end-of-life care in children across Switzerland, building on real experiences and needs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01983852.

Le point sur la pratique infirmière avancée [Update on advanced practice nursing].

NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">We report outcomes of a clinical audit examining criteria used in clinical practice to rationalize endotracheal tube (ETT) suction, and the extent these matched criteria in the Endotracheal Suction Assessment Tool(ESAT)©. A retrospective audit of patient notes (N = 292) and analyses of criteria documented by pediatric intensive care nurses to rationalize ETT suction were undertaken. The median number of documented respiratory and ventilation status criteria per ETT suction event that matched the ESAT© criteria was 2 [Interquartile Range (IQR) 1-6]. All criteria listed within the ESAT© were documented within the reviewed notes. A direct link was established between criteria used for current clinical practice of ETT suction and the ESAT©. The ESAT©, therefore, reflects documented clinical decision making and could be used as both a clinical and educational guide for inexperienced pediatric critical care nurses. Modification to the ESAT© requires "preparation for extubation" to be added.

A cast of shadow on adjuvant radiotherapy for prostate cancer: A critical review based on a methodological perspective.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a critical review focusing on the applicability in clinical daily practice of data from three randomized controlled trials (RCTs): SWOG 8794, EORTC 22911, and ARO/AUO 96-02. METHODS AND MATERIALS: An analytical framework, based on the identified population, interventions, comparators, and outcomes (PICO) was used to refine the search of the evidence from the three large randomized trials regarding the use of radiation therapy after prostatectomy as adjuvant therapy (ART). RESULTS: With regard to the inclusion criteria: (1) POPULATION: in the time since they were designed, in two among three trial (SWOG 8794 and EORTC 22911) patients had a detectable PSA at the time of randomization, thus representing de facto a substantial proportion of patients who eventually received salvage RT (SRT) at non-normalised PSA levels rather than ART. (2) INTERVENTIONS: although all the trials showed the benefit of postoperative ART compared to a wait-and-see approach, the dose herein employed would be now considered inadequate; (3) COMPARATORS: the comparison arm in all the 3 RCTs was an uncontrolled observation arm, where patients who subsequently developed biochemical failure were treated in various ways, with up to half of them receiving SRT at PSA well above 1ng/mL, a level that would be now deemed inappropriate; (4) OUTCOMES: only in one trial (SWOG 8794) ART was found to significantly improve overall survival compared to observation, with a ten-year overall survival rate of 74% vs. 66%, although this might be partly the result of imbalanced risk factors due to competing event risk stratification. CONCLUSIONS: ART has a high level of evidence due to three RCTs with at least 10-year follow-up recording a benefit in biochemical PFS, but its penetrance in present daily clinics should be reconsidered. While the benefit of ART or SRT is eagerly expected from ongoing randomized trials, a dynamic risk-stratified approach should drive the decisions making process.

Step-by-step of ultrasound-guided core-needle biopsy of the breast: review and technique

Ultrasound-guided core-needle biopsy has high sensitivity in the diagnosis of breast cancer. The present study is aimed at detailing the main steps of such procedure, including indications, advantages, limitations, follow-up and description of the technique, besides presenting a checklist including the critical steps required for an appropriate practice of the technique. In the recent years, an increasing number of patients have required breast biopsy, indicating the necessity of a proportional increase in the number of skilled professionals to carry out the procedures and histological diagnoses. A multidisciplinary approach involving the tripod clinical practice-radiology-pathology is responsible for the highest rate of accuracy of the technique and must always be adopted.

Implications, large and small, from chemical education research for the teaching of chemistry

Research studies in chemical education pose a communication problem for chemists. Unlike the findings from other specializations in chemistry the findings in chemical education tend to be reported in education journals that are not readily accessible to most chemists or chemistry teachers. This lecture is an attempt to remedy this gap in communication. Research studies fall into three broad categories. (i) issues related to the content of chemistry itself, that is, What content to teach? And What meaning of each topic is to be conveyed? (ii) issues related to how chemical content is taught, such as, the role of lectures, practical work, particular pedagogies, etc. and (iii) issues related to its learning, that is, learning of concepts, conceptual change, motivation, etc. Findings in each of these categories of research over the last twenty years have drawn attention to opportunities for improving the quality of chemical education in each of the levels of formal education where chemistry is taught. Sometimes the research findings seem small since they, in fact, merely diagnose the actual problem in teaching and learning. At other times, the research findings are large because they provide a solution to these problems. What remains to be done is to disseminate the findings so that appropriate teaching occurs more widely, with its consequent gains in the quality of learning. Research findings, of these small and large types will be used to illustrate the potential of research to make the practice of chemical education more effective.