Robust test method for time-course microarray experiments.

BACKGROUND: In a time-course microarray experiment, the expression level for each gene is observed across a number of time-points in order to characterize the temporal trajectories of the gene-expression profiles. For many of these experiments, the scientific aim is the identification of genes for which the trajectories depend on an experimental or phenotypic factor. There is an extensive recent body of literature on statistical methodology for addressing this analytical problem. Most of the existing methods are based on estimating the time-course trajectories using parametric or non-parametric mean regression methods. The sensitivity of these regression methods to outliers, an issue that is well documented in the statistical literature, should be of concern when analyzing microarray data. RESULTS: In this paper, we propose a robust testing method for identifying genes whose expression time profiles depend on a factor. Furthermore, we propose a multiple testing procedure to adjust for multiplicity. CONCLUSIONS: Through an extensive simulation study, we will illustrate the performance of our method. Finally, we will report the results from applying our method to a case study and discussing potential extensions.

Modeling the evolution of regulatory elements by simultaneous detection and alignment with phylogenetic pair HMMs.

The computational detection of regulatory elements in DNA is a difficult but important problem impacting our progress in understanding the complex nature of eukaryotic gene regulation. Attempts to utilize cross-species conservation for this task have been hampered both by evolutionary changes of functional sites and poor performance of general-purpose alignment programs when applied to non-coding sequence. We describe a new and flexible framework for modeling binding site evolution in multiple related genomes, based on phylogenetic pair hidden Markov models which explicitly model the gain and loss of binding sites along a phylogeny. We demonstrate the value of this framework for both the alignment of regulatory regions and the inference of precise binding-site locations within those regions. As the underlying formalism is a stochastic, generative model, it can also be used to simulate the evolution of regulatory elements. Our implementation is scalable in terms of numbers of species and sequence lengths and can produce alignments and binding-site predictions with accuracy rivaling or exceeding current systems that specialize in only alignment or only binding-site prediction. We demonstrate the validity and power of various model components on extensive simulations of realistic sequence data and apply a specific model to study Drosophila enhancers in as many as ten related genomes and in the presence of gain and loss of binding sites. Different models and modeling assumptions can be easily specified, thus providing an invaluable tool for the exploration of biological hypotheses that can drive improvements in our understanding of the mechanisms and evolution of gene regulation.

Standardizing clinical trials workflow representation in UML for international site comparison.

BACKGROUND: With the globalization of clinical trials, a growing emphasis has been placed on the standardization of the workflow in order to ensure the reproducibility and reliability of the overall trial. Despite the importance of workflow evaluation, to our knowledge no previous studies have attempted to adapt existing modeling languages to standardize the representation of clinical trials. Unified Modeling Language (UML) is a computational language that can be used to model operational workflow, and a UML profile can be developed to standardize UML models within a given domain. This paper's objective is to develop a UML profile to extend the UML Activity Diagram schema into the clinical trials domain, defining a standard representation for clinical trial workflow diagrams in UML. METHODS: Two Brazilian clinical trial sites in rheumatology and oncology were examined to model their workflow and collect time-motion data. UML modeling was conducted in Eclipse, and a UML profile was developed to incorporate information used in discrete event simulation software. RESULTS: Ethnographic observation revealed bottlenecks in workflow: these included tasks requiring full commitment of CRCs, transferring notes from paper to computers, deviations from standard operating procedures, and conflicts between different IT systems. Time-motion analysis revealed that nurses' activities took up the most time in the workflow and contained a high frequency of shorter duration activities. Administrative assistants performed more activities near the beginning and end of the workflow. Overall, clinical trial tasks had a greater frequency than clinic routines or other general activities. CONCLUSIONS: This paper describes a method for modeling clinical trial workflow in UML and standardizing these workflow diagrams through a UML profile. In the increasingly global environment of clinical trials, the standardization of workflow modeling is a necessary precursor to conducting a comparative analysis of international clinical trials workflows.

Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.

Assessment of LD matrix measures for the analysis of biological pathway association.

Complex diseases will have multiple functional sites, and it will be invaluable to understand the cross-locus interaction in terms of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between those sites (epistasis) in addition to the haplotype-LD effects. We investigated the statistical properties of a class of matrix-based statistics to assess this epistasis. These statistical methods include two LD contrast tests (Zaykin et al., 2006) and partial least squares regression (Wang et al., 2008). To estimate Type 1 error rates and power, we simulated multiple two-variant disease models using the SIMLA software package. SIMLA allows for the joint action of up to two disease genes in the simulated data with all possible multiplicative interaction effects between them. Our goal was to detect an interaction between multiple disease-causing variants by means of their linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns with other markers. We measured the effects of marginal disease effect size, haplotype LD, disease prevalence and minor allele frequency have on cross-locus interaction (epistasis). In the setting of strong allele effects and strong interaction, the correlation between the two disease genes was weak (r=0.2). In a complex system with multiple correlations (both marginal and interaction), it was difficult to determine the source of a significant result. Despite these complications, the partial least squares and modified LD contrast methods maintained adequate power to detect the epistatic effects; however, for many of the analyses we often could not separate interaction from a strong marginal effect. While we did not exhaust the entire parameter space of possible models, we do provide guidance on the effects that population parameters have on cross-locus interaction.

Far-field analysis of axially symmetric three-dimensional directional cloaks.

Axisymmetric radiating and scattering structures whose rotational invariance is broken by non-axisymmetric excitations present an important class of problems in electromagnetics. For such problems, a cylindrical wave decomposition formalism can be used to efficiently obtain numerical solutions to the full-wave frequency-domain problem. Often, the far-field, or Fraunhofer region is of particular interest in scattering cross-section and radiation pattern calculations; yet, it is usually impractical to compute full-wave solutions for this region. Here, we propose a generalization of the Stratton-Chu far-field integral adapted for 2.5D formalism. The integration over a closed, axially symmetric surface is analytically reduced to a line integral on a meridional plane. We benchmark this computational technique by comparing it with analytical Mie solutions for a plasmonic nanoparticle, and apply it to the design of a three-dimensional polarization-insensitive cloak.

The role of extracellular matrix elasticity and composition in regulating the nucleus pulposus cell phenotype in the intervertebral disc: a narrative review.

Intervertebral disc (IVD) disorders are a major contributor to disability and societal health care costs. Nucleus pulposus (NP) cells of the IVD exhibit changes in both phenotype and morphology with aging-related IVD degeneration that may impact the onset and progression of IVD pathology. Studies have demonstrated that immature NP cell interactions with their extracellular matrix (ECM) may be key regulators of cellular phenotype, metabolism and morphology. The objective of this article is to review our recent experience with studies of NP cell-ECM interactions that reveal how ECM cues can be manipulated to promote an immature NP cell phenotype and morphology. Findings demonstrate the importance of a soft (<700 Pa), laminin-containing ECM in regulating healthy, immature NP cells. Knowledge of NP cell-ECM interactions can be used for development of tissue engineering or cell delivery strategies to treat IVD-related disorders.

On-board Robotic Multi-pinhole SPECT System for Region-of-interest (ROI) Imaging

On-board image guidance, such as cone-beam CT (CBCT) and kV/MV 2D imaging, is essential in many radiation therapy procedures, such as intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). These imaging techniques provide predominantly anatomical information for treatment planning and target localization. Recently, studies have shown that treatment planning based on functional and molecular information about the tumor and surrounding tissue could potentially improve the effectiveness of radiation therapy. However, current on-board imaging systems are limited in their functional and molecular imaging capability. Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) is a candidate to achieve on-board functional and molecular imaging. Traditional SPECT systems typically take 20 minutes or more for a scan, which is too long for on-board imaging. A robotic multi-pinhole SPECT system was proposed in this dissertation to provide shorter imaging time by using a robotic arm to maneuver the multi-pinhole SPECT system around the patient in position for radiation therapy.

A 49-pinhole collimated SPECT detector and its shielding were designed and simulated in this work using the computer-aided design (CAD) software. The trajectories of robotic arm about the patient, treatment table and gantry in the radiation therapy room and several detector assemblies such as parallel holes, single pinhole and 49 pinholes collimated detector were investigated. The rail mounted system was designed to enable a full range of detector positions and orientations to various crucial treatment sites including head and torso, while avoiding collision with linear accelerator (LINAC), patient table and patient.

An alignment method was developed in this work to calibrate the on-board robotic SPECT to the LINAC coordinate frame and to the coordinate frames of other on-board imaging systems such as CBCT. This alignment method utilizes line sources and one pinhole projection of these line sources. The model consists of multiple alignment parameters which maps line sources in 3-dimensional (3D) space to their 2-dimensional (2D) projections on the SPECT detector. Computer-simulation studies and experimental evaluations were performed as a function of number of line sources, Radon transform accuracy, finite line-source width, intrinsic camera resolution, Poisson noise and acquisition geometry. In computer-simulation studies, when there was no error in determining angles (α) and offsets (ρ) of the measured projections, the six alignment parameters (3 translational and 3 rotational) were estimated perfectly using three line sources. When angles (α) and offsets (ρ) were provided by Radon transform, the estimation accuracy was reduced. The estimation error was associated with rounding errors of Radon transform, finite line-source width, Poisson noise, number of line sources, intrinsic camera resolution and detector acquisition geometry. The estimation accuracy was significantly improved by using 4 line sources rather than 3 and also by using thinner line-source projections (obtained by better intrinsic detector resolution). With 5 line sources, median errors were 0.2 mm for the detector translations, 0.7 mm for the detector radius of rotation, and less than 0.5° for detector rotation, tilt and twist. In experimental evaluations, average errors relative to a different, independent registration technique were about 1.8 mm for detector translations, 1.1 mm for the detector radius of rotation (ROR), 0.5° and 0.4° for detector rotation and tilt, respectively, and 1.2° for detector twist.

Simulation studies were performed to investigate the improvement of imaging sensitivity and accuracy of hot sphere localization for breast imaging of patients in prone position. A 3D XCAT phantom was simulated in the prone position with nine hot spheres of 10 mm diameter added in the left breast. A no-treatment-table case and two commercial prone breast boards, 7 and 24 cm thick, were simulated. Different pinhole focal lengths were assessed for root-mean-square-error (RMSE). The pinhole focal lengths resulting in the lowest RMSE values were 12 cm, 18 cm and 21 cm for no table, thin board, and thick board, respectively. In both no table and thin board cases, all 9 hot spheres were easily visualized above background with 4-minute scans utilizing the 49-pinhole SPECT system while seven of nine hot spheres were visible with the thick board. In comparison with parallel-hole system, our 49-pinhole system shows reduction in noise and bias under these simulation cases. These results correspond to smaller radii of rotation for no-table case and thinner prone board. Similarly, localization accuracy with the 49-pinhole system was significantly better than with the parallel-hole system for both the thin and thick prone boards. Median localization errors for the 49-pinhole system with the thin board were less than 3 mm for 5 of 9 hot spheres, and less than 6 mm for the other 4 hot spheres. Median localization errors of 49-pinhole system with the thick board were less than 4 mm for 5 of 9 hot spheres, and less than 8 mm for the other 4 hot spheres.

Besides prone breast imaging, respiratory-gated region-of-interest (ROI) imaging of lung tumor was also investigated. A simulation study was conducted on the potential of multi-pinhole, region-of-interest (ROI) SPECT to alleviate noise effects associated with respiratory-gated SPECT imaging of the thorax. Two 4D XCAT digital phantoms were constructed, with either a 10 mm or 20 mm diameter tumor added in the right lung. The maximum diaphragm motion was 2 cm (for 10 mm tumor) or 4 cm (for 20 mm tumor) in superior-inferior direction and 1.2 cm in anterior-posterior direction. Projections were simulated with a 4-minute acquisition time (40 seconds per each of 6 gates) using either the ROI SPECT system (49-pinhole) or reference single and dual conventional broad cross-section, parallel-hole collimated SPECT. The SPECT images were reconstructed using OSEM with up to 6 iterations. Images were evaluated as a function of gate by profiles, noise versus bias curves, and a numerical observer performing a forced-choice localization task. Even for the 20 mm tumor, the 49-pinhole imaging ROI was found sufficient to encompass fully usual clinical ranges of diaphragm motion. Averaged over the 6 gates, noise at iteration 6 of 49-pinhole ROI imaging (10.9 µCi/ml) was approximately comparable to noise at iteration 2 of the two dual and single parallel-hole, broad cross-section systems (12.4 µCi/ml and 13.8 µCi/ml, respectively). Corresponding biases were much lower for the 49-pinhole ROI system (3.8 µCi/ml), versus 6.2 µCi/ml and 6.5 µCi/ml for the dual and single parallel-hole systems, respectively. Median localization errors averaged over 6 gates, for the 10 mm and 20 mm tumors respectively, were 1.6 mm and 0.5 mm using the ROI imaging system and 6.6 mm and 2.3 mm using the dual parallel-hole, broad cross-section system. The results demonstrate substantially improved imaging via ROI methods. One important application may be gated imaging of patients in position for radiation therapy.

A robotic SPECT imaging system was constructed utilizing a gamma camera detector (Digirad 2020tc) and a robot (KUKA KR150-L110 robot). An imaging study was performed with a phantom (PET CT PhantomTM), which includes 5 spheres of 10, 13, 17, 22 and 28 mm in diameter. The phantom was placed on a flat-top couch. SPECT projections were acquired with a parallel-hole collimator and a single-pinhole collimator both without background in the phantom, and with background at 1/10th the sphere activity concentration. The imaging trajectories of parallel-hole and pinhole collimated detectors spanned 180 degrees and 228 degrees respectively. The pinhole detector viewed a 14.7 cm-diameter common volume which encompassed the 28 mm and 22 mm spheres. The common volume for parallel-hole was a 20.8-cm-diameter cylinder which encompassed all five spheres in the phantom. The maneuverability of the robotic system was tested by navigating the detector to trace the flat-top table while avoiding collision with the table and maintaining the closest possible proximity to the common volume. For image reconstruction, detector trajectories were described by radius-of-rotation and detector rotation angle θ. These reconstruction parameters were obtained from the robot base and tool coordinates. The robotic SPECT system was able to maneuver the parallel-hole and pinhole collimated SPECT detectors in close proximity to the phantom, minimizing impact of the flat-top couch on detector to center-of-rotation (COR) distance. In no background case, all five spheres were visible in the reconstructed parallel-hole and pinhole images. In with background case, three spheres of 17, 22 and 28 mm diameter were readily observed with the parallel-hole imaging, and the targeted spheres (22 and 28 mm diameter) were readily observed in the pinhole ROI imaging.

In conclusion, the proposed on-board robotic SPECT can be aligned to LINAC/CBCT with a single pinhole projection of the line-source phantom. Alignment parameters can be estimated using one pinhole projection of line sources. This alignment method may be important for multi-pinhole SPECT, where relative pinhole alignment may vary during rotation. For single pinhole and multi-pinhole SPECT imaging onboard radiation therapy machines, the method could provide alignment of SPECT coordinates with those of CBCT and the LINAC. In simulation studies of prone breast imaging and respiratory-gated lung imaging, the 49-pinhole detector showed better tumor contrast recovery and localization in a 4-minute scan compared to parallel-hole detector. On-board SPECT could be achieved by a robot maneuvering a SPECT detector about patients in position for radiation therapy on a flat-top couch. The robot inherent coordinate frames could be an effective means to estimate detector pose for use in SPECT image reconstruction.

Recovery from an acute infection in C. elegans requires the GATA transcription factor ELT-2.

The mechanisms involved in the recognition of microbial pathogens and activation of the immune system have been extensively studied. However, the mechanisms involved in the recovery phase of an infection are incompletely characterized at both the cellular and physiological levels. Here, we establish a Caenorhabditis elegans-Salmonella enterica model of acute infection and antibiotic treatment for studying biological changes during the resolution phase of an infection. Using whole genome expression profiles of acutely infected animals, we found that genes that are markers of innate immunity are down-regulated upon recovery, while genes involved in xenobiotic detoxification, redox regulation, and cellular homeostasis are up-regulated. In silico analyses demonstrated that genes altered during recovery from infection were transcriptionally regulated by conserved transcription factors, including GATA/ELT-2, FOXO/DAF-16, and Nrf/SKN-1. Finally, we found that recovery from an acute bacterial infection is dependent on ELT-2 activity.

Computational inference of neural information flow networks.

Determining how information flows along anatomical brain pathways is a fundamental requirement for understanding how animals perceive their environments, learn, and behave. Attempts to reveal such neural information flow have been made using linear computational methods, but neural interactions are known to be nonlinear. Here, we demonstrate that a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) inference algorithm we originally developed to infer nonlinear transcriptional regulatory networks from gene expression data collected with microarrays is also successful at inferring nonlinear neural information flow networks from electrophysiology data collected with microelectrode arrays. The inferred networks we recover from the songbird auditory pathway are correctly restricted to a subset of known anatomical paths, are consistent with timing of the system, and reveal both the importance of reciprocal feedback in auditory processing and greater information flow to higher-order auditory areas when birds hear natural as opposed to synthetic sounds. A linear method applied to the same data incorrectly produces networks with information flow to non-neural tissue and over paths known not to exist. To our knowledge, this study represents the first biologically validated demonstration of an algorithm to successfully infer neural information flow networks.

An evaluation of remifentanil-sevoflurane response surface models in patients emerging from anesthesia: model improvement using effect-site sevoflurane concentrations.

INTRODUCTION: We previously reported models that characterized the synergistic interaction between remifentanil and sevoflurane in blunting responses to verbal and painful stimuli. This preliminary study evaluated the ability of these models to predict a return of responsiveness during emergence from anesthesia and a response to tibial pressure when patients required analgesics in the recovery room. We hypothesized that model predictions would be consistent with observed responses. We also hypothesized that under non-steady-state conditions, accounting for the lag time between sevoflurane effect-site concentration (Ce) and end-tidal (ET) concentration would improve predictions. METHODS: Twenty patients received a sevoflurane, remifentanil, and fentanyl anesthetic. Two model predictions of responsiveness were recorded at emergence: an ET-based and a Ce-based prediction. Similarly, 2 predictions of a response to noxious stimuli were recorded when patients first required analgesics in the recovery room. Model predictions were compared with observations with graphical and temporal analyses. RESULTS: While patients were anesthetized, model predictions indicated a high likelihood that patients would be unresponsive (> or = 99%). However, after termination of the anesthetic, models exhibited a wide range of predictions at emergence (1%-97%). Although wide, the Ce-based predictions of responsiveness were better distributed over a percentage ranking of observations than the ET-based predictions. For the ET-based model, 45% of the patients awoke within 2 min of the 50% model predicted probability of unresponsiveness and 65% awoke within 4 min. For the Ce-based model, 45% of the patients awoke within 1 min of the 50% model predicted probability of unresponsiveness and 85% awoke within 3.2 min. Predictions of a response to a painful stimulus in the recovery room were similar for the Ce- and ET-based models. DISCUSSION: Results confirmed, in part, our study hypothesis; accounting for the lag time between Ce and ET sevoflurane concentrations improved model predictions of responsiveness but had no effect on predicting a response to a noxious stimulus in the recovery room. These models may be useful in predicting events of clinical interest but large-scale evaluations with numerous patients are needed to better characterize model performance.

Comparative analyses of seven algorithms for copy number variant identification from single nucleotide polymorphism arrays.

Determination of copy number variants (CNVs) inferred in genome wide single nucleotide polymorphism arrays has shown increasing utility in genetic variant disease associations. Several CNV detection methods are available, but differences in CNV call thresholds and characteristics exist. We evaluated the relative performance of seven methods: circular binary segmentation, CNVFinder, cnvPartition, gain and loss of DNA, Nexus algorithms, PennCNV and QuantiSNP. Tested data included real and simulated Illumina HumHap 550 data from the Singapore cohort study of the risk factors for Myopia (SCORM) and simulated data from Affymetrix 6.0 and platform-independent distributions. The normalized singleton ratio (NSR) is proposed as a metric for parameter optimization before enacting full analysis. We used 10 SCORM samples for optimizing parameter settings for each method and then evaluated method performance at optimal parameters using 100 SCORM samples. The statistical power, false positive rates, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve residuals were evaluated by simulation studies. Optimal parameters, as determined by NSR and ROC curve residuals, were consistent across datasets. QuantiSNP outperformed other methods based on ROC curve residuals over most datasets. Nexus Rank and SNPRank have low specificity and high power. Nexus Rank calls oversized CNVs. PennCNV detects one of the fewest numbers of CNVs.

Component-wise gradient boosting and false discovery control in survival analysis with high-dimensional covariates.

MOTIVATION: Technological advances that allow routine identification of high-dimensional risk factors have led to high demand for statistical techniques that enable full utilization of these rich sources of information for genetics studies. Variable selection for censored outcome data as well as control of false discoveries (i.e. inclusion of irrelevant variables) in the presence of high-dimensional predictors present serious challenges. This article develops a computationally feasible method based on boosting and stability selection. Specifically, we modified the component-wise gradient boosting to improve the computational feasibility and introduced random permutation in stability selection for controlling false discoveries. RESULTS: We have proposed a high-dimensional variable selection method by incorporating stability selection to control false discovery. Comparisons between the proposed method and the commonly used univariate and Lasso approaches for variable selection reveal that the proposed method yields fewer false discoveries. The proposed method is applied to study the associations of 2339 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with overall survival among cutaneous melanoma (CM) patients. The results have confirmed that BRCA2 pathway SNPs are likely to be associated with overall survival, as reported by previous literature. Moreover, we have identified several new Fanconi anemia (FA) pathway SNPs that are likely to modulate survival of CM patients. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The related source code and documents are freely available at https://sites.google.com/site/bestumich/issues. CONTACT: yili@umich.edu.

A noisy linear map underlies oscillations in cell size and gene expression in bacteria.

During bacterial growth, a cell approximately doubles in size before division, after which it splits into two daughter cells. This process is subjected to the inherent perturbations of cellular noise and thus requires regulation for cell-size homeostasis. The mechanisms underlying the control and dynamics of cell size remain poorly understood owing to the difficulty in sizing individual bacteria over long periods of time in a high-throughput manner. Here we measure and analyse long-term, single-cell growth and division across different Escherichia coli strains and growth conditions. We show that a subset of cells in a population exhibit transient oscillations in cell size with periods that stretch across several (more than ten) generations. Our analysis reveals that a simple law governing cell-size control-a noisy linear map-explains the origins of these cell-size oscillations across all strains. This noisy linear map implements a negative feedback on cell-size control: a cell with a larger initial size tends to divide earlier, whereas one with a smaller initial size tends to divide later. Combining simulations of cell growth and division with experimental data, we demonstrate that this noisy linear map generates transient oscillations, not just in cell size, but also in constitutive gene expression. Our work provides new insights into the dynamics of bacterial cell-size regulation with implications for the physiological processes involved.

Improving the Timeliness and Response to an Aerosolizedanthrax Attack in the Metropolitan Washington, D.C. Region

Our research was conducted to improve the timeliness, coordination, and communication during the detection, investigation and decision-making phases of the response to an aerosolized anthrax attack in the metropolitan Washington, DC, area with the goal of reducing casualties. Our research gathered information of the current response protocols through an extensive literature review and interviews with relevant officials and experts in order to identify potential problems that may exist in various steps of the detection, investigation, and response. Interviewing officials from private and government sector agencies allowed the development of a set of models of interactions and a communication network to identify discrepancies and redundancies that would elongate the delay time in initiating a public health response. In addition, we created a computer simulation designed to model an aerosol spread using weather patterns and population density to identify an estimated population of infected individuals within a target region depending on the virulence and dimensions of the weaponized spores. We developed conceptual models in order to design recommendations that would be presented to our collaborating contacts and agencies that would use such policy and analysis interventions to improve upon the overall response to an aerosolized anthrax attack, primarily through changes to emergency protocol functions and suggestions of technological detection and monitoring response to an aerosolized anthrax attack.