A model of self-thinning through local competition.

Explanations of self-thinning in plant populations have focused on plant shape and packing. A dynamic model based on the structure of local interactions successfully reproduces the pattern and can be approximated to identify key parameters and relationships. The approach generates testable new explanations for differences between species and populations, unifies self-thinning with other patterns in plant population dynamics, and indicates why organisms other than plants can follow the law.

Unusual dynamics of extinction in a simple ecological model.

Studies on natural populations and harvesting biological resources have led to the view, commonly held, that (i) populations exhibiting chaotic oscillations run a high risk of extinction; and (ii) a decrease in emigration/exploitation may reduce the risk of extinction. Here we describe a simple ecological model with emigration/depletion that shows behavior in contrast to this. This model displays unusual dynamics of extinction and survival, where populations growing beyond a critical rate can persist within a band of high depletion rates, whereas extinction occurs for lower depletion rates. Though prior to extinction at lower depletion rates the population exhibits chaotic dynamics with large amplitudes of variation and very low minima, at higher depletion rates the population persists at chaos but with reduced variation and increased minima. For still higher values, within the band of persistence, the dynamics show period reversal leading to stability. These results illustrate that chaos does not necessarily lead to population extinction. In addition, the persistence of populations at high depletion rates has important implications in the considerations of strategies for the management of biological resources.

An n-allele model for progressive amplification in the FMR1 locus.

An n-allele model is developed for the FMR1 locus, which causes the fragile X syndrome, where n is the number of triplet repeats in the first exon. Frequencies in the general population and in index families are used to generate an n to n + delta transition matrix that predicts specific risks in satisfactory agreement with observation. However, until sequencing distinguishes between stable and unstable alleles with the same value of n, it is premature to infer whether allelic frequencies at the FMR1 locus are at equilibrium or, as some have suggested, are evolving toward higher frequencies of the pathogenic allele.

Onsite Wastewater Model Performance Code Implementation Plan

As the population of Colorado continues to grow, the impacts from individual sewage disposal systems, or onsite wastewater systems (OWS), are becoming more apparent. Increased use of OWS impacts not only water quality but land use and development as well. These impacts have led to the need for a new generation of wastewater regulations in the state, a transition from the historic prescriptive requirements to a more progressive, performance-based system. A performance-based system will allow smarter growth, improved water quality, and cost savings for both the regulatory agencies and the OWS industry in Colorado. This project outlines the challenges and essential elements required to make this transition, and provides guidance on how to meet the challenges and overcome barriers to implementing a performance code in Colorado.

Population synthesis of isolated neutron stars with magneto-rotational evolution

We revisit the population synthesis of isolated radio-pulsars incorporating recent advances on the evolution of the magnetic field and the angle between the magnetic and rotational axes from new simulations of the magneto-thermal evolution and magnetosphere models, respectively. An interesting novelty in our approach is that we do not assume the existence of a death line. We discuss regions in parameter space that are more consistent with the observational data. In particular, we find that any broad distribution of birth spin periods with P0 ≲ 0.5 s can fit the data, and that if the alignment angle is allowed to vary consistently with the torque model, realistic magnetospheric models are favoured compared to models with classical magneto-dipolar radiation losses. Assuming that the initial magnetic field is given by a lognormal distribution, our optimal model has mean strength 〈log B0[G]〉 ≈ 13.0–13.2 with width σ(log B0) = 0.6–0.7. However, there are strong correlations between parameters. This degeneracy in the parameter space can be broken by an independent estimate of the pulsar birth rate or by future studies correlating this information with the population in other observational bands (X-rays and γ-rays).

Individual differences in predicting occupational success: The effect of population heterogeneity

Using a sample of 339 university graduates from the University of Alicante (Spain) three years after completion of their studies, we studied the relationships between general intelligence (GI), personality traits, emotional intelligence (EI), academic performance, and occupational attainment and compared the results of conventional regression analysis with the results obtained from applying regression mixture models. The results reveal the influence of unobserved population heterogeneity (latent class) on the relationship between predictors and criteria and the improvement in the prediction obtained from applying regression mixture models compared to applying a conventional regression model.

Population synthesis of isolated neutron stars with magneto-rotational evolution – II. From radio-pulsars to magnetars

Population synthesis studies constitute a powerful method to reconstruct the birth distribution of periods and magnetic fields of the pulsar population. When this method is applied to populations in different wavelengths, it can break the degeneracy in the inferred properties of initial distributions that arises from single-band studies. In this context, we extend previous works to include X-ray thermal emitting pulsars within the same evolutionary model as radio-pulsars. We find that the cumulative distribution of the number of X-ray pulsars can be well reproduced by several models that, simultaneously, reproduce the characteristics of the radio-pulsar distribution. However, even considering the most favourable magneto-thermal evolution models with fast field decay, lognormal distributions of the initial magnetic field overpredict the number of visible sources with periods longer than 12 s. We then show that the problem can be solved with different distributions of magnetic field, such as a truncated lognormal distribution, or a binormal distribution with two distinct populations. We use the observational lack of isolated neutron stars (NSs) with spin periods P > 12 s to establish an upper limit to the fraction of magnetars born with B > 1015 G (less than 1 per cent). As future detections keep increasing the magnetar and high-B pulsar statistics, our approach can be used to establish a severe constraint on the maximum magnetic field at birth of NSs.

A hydrological–economic model for sustainable groundwater use in sparse-data drylands: Application to the Amtoudi Oasis in southern Morocco, northern Sahara

A hydrological–economic model is introduced to describe the dynamics of groundwater-dependent economics (agriculture and tourism) for sustainable use in sparse-data drylands. The Amtoudi Oasis, a remote area in southern Morocco, in the northern Sahara attractive for tourism and with evidence of groundwater degradation, was chosen to show the model operation. Governing system variables were identified and put into action through System Dynamics (SD) modeling causal diagrams to program basic formulations into a model having two modules coupled by the nexus ‘pumping’: (1) the hydrological module represents the net groundwater balance (G) dynamics; and (2) the economic module reproduces the variation in the consumers of water, both the population and tourists. The model was operated under similar influx of tourists and different scenarios of water availability, such as the wet 2009–2010 and the average 2010–2011 hydrological years. The rise in international tourism is identified as the main driving force reducing emigration and introducing new social habits in the population, in particular concerning water consumption. Urban water allotment (PU) was doubled for less than a 100-inhabitant net increase in recent decades. The water allocation for agriculture (PI), the largest consumer of water, had remained constant for decades. Despite that the 2-year monitoring period is not long enough to draw long-term conclusions, groundwater imbalance was reflected by net aquifer recharge (R) less than PI + PU (G < 0) in the average year 2010–2011, with net lateral inflow from adjacent Cambrian formations being the largest recharge component. R is expected to be much less than PI + PU in recurrent dry spells. Some low-technology actions are tentatively proposed to mitigate groundwater degradation, such as: wastewater capture, treatment, and reuse for irrigation; storm-water harvesting for irrigation; and active maintenance of the irrigation system to improve its efficiency.

Macroeconomic Scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean Area Quantification based on the GEM-E3 Model. MEDPRO Report No. 7, July 2013

Four alternative macroeconomic scenarios for southern Mediterranean countries are quantified in this study with the use of GEM-E3, a general equilibrium model. These are i) the continuation of current policies (business-as-usual scenario), ii) southern Mediterranean–EU cooperation (Euro-Mediterranean Union scenario), iii) a global opening of the southern Mediterranean countries and cooperation with the rest of the Middle East and other developing countries like China (Euro-Mediterranean alliance scenario), and iv) a deterioration in the regional political climate and a failure of cooperation (Euro-Mediterranean under threat scenario). Explicit assumptions on trade integration, infrastructure upgrade, population and governance developments are adopted in each scenario. The simulation results indicate that an infrastructure upgrade and governance improvements in the context of southern Mediterranean–EU cooperation could benefit most of the countries under consideration. The analysis remains important in light of ongoing regional developments and the need to design the best policies to pursue in the aftermath of the Arab spring.

Highway fuel consumption computer model (version I). Final report.

Transportation Department, Washington, D.C.

Forecasting auto ownership and mode choice for U.S. metropolitan areas. Volume II: model equations. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of University Research, Washington, D.C.

Genetic variation and inference of demographic histories in non-model species

Both long-term environmental changes such as those driven by the glacial cycles and more recent anthropogenic impacts have had major effects on the past demography in wild organisms. Within species, these changes are reflected in the amount and distribution of neutral genetic variation. In this thesis, mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA was analysed to investigate how environmental and anthropogenic factors have affected genetic diversity and structure in four ecologically different animal species. Paper I describes the post-glacial recolonisation history of the speckled-wood butterfly (Pararge aegeria) in Northern Europe. A decrease in genetic diversity with latitude and a marked population structure were uncovered, consistent with a hypothesis of repeated founder events during the postglacial recolonisation. Moreover, Approximate Bayesian Computation analyses indicate that the univoltine populations in Scandinavia and Finland originate from recolonisations along two routes, one on each side of the Baltic. Paper II aimed to investigate how past sea-level rises affected the population history of the convict surgeonfish (Acanthurus triostegus) in the Indo-Pacific. Assessment of the species’ demographic history suggested a population expansion that occurred approximately at the end of the last glaciation. Moreover, the results demonstrated an overall lack of phylogeographic structure, probably due to the high dispersal rates associated with the species’ pelagic larval stage. Populations at the species’ eastern range margin were significantly differentiated from other populations, which likely is a consequence of their geographic isolation. In Paper III, we assessed the effect of human impact on the genetic variation of European moose (Alces alces) in Sweden. Genetic analyses revealed a spatial structure with two genetic clusters, one in northern and one in southern Sweden, which were separated by a narrow transition zone. Moreover, demographic inference suggested a recent population bottleneck. The inferred timing of this bottleneck coincided with a known reduction in population size in the 19th and early 20th century due to high hunting pressure. In Paper IV, we examined the effect of an indirect but well-described human impact, via environmental toxic chemicals (PCBs), on the genetic variation of Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra) in Sweden. Genetic clustering assignment revealed differentiation between otters in northern and southern Sweden, but also in the Stockholm region. ABC analyses indicated a decrease in effective population size in both northern and southern Sweden. Moreover, comparative analyses of historical and contemporary samples demonstrated a more severe decline in genetic diversity in southern Sweden compared to northern Sweden, in agreement with the levels of PCBs found.

Salivary Gland and Tooth Abnormalities Massively Increase Caries Susceptibility in A Mouse Model of Cleft Lip/Palate

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-04

Population pharmacokinetics of hydroxychloroquine in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is an antimalarial drug that is also used as a second-line treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Clinically, the use of HCQ is characterized by a long delay in the onset of action, and withdrawal of treatment is often a result of inefficacy rather than from toxicity. The slow onset of action can be attributed to the pharmacokinetics (PK) of HCQ, and wide interpatient variability is evident. Tentative relationships between concentration and effect have been made, but to date, no population PK model has been developed for HCQ. This study aimed to develop a population PK model including an estimation of the oral bioavailability of HCQ. In addition, the effects of the coadministration of methotrexate on the PK of HCQ were examined. Hydroxychloroquine blood concentration data were combined from previous pharmacokinetic studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. A total of 123 patients were studied, giving the data cohort from four previously published studies. Two groups of patients were included: 74 received hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) alone, and 49 received HCQ and methotrexate (MTX). All data analyses were carried out using the NONMEM program. A one-compartment PK model was supported, rather than a three-compartment model as previously published, probably because of the clustering of concentrations taken at the end of a dosing interval. The population estimate of bioavailability of 0.75 (0.07), n = 9, was consistent with literature values. The parameter values from the final model were: (Cl) over bar = 9.9 +/- 0.4 L/h, (V) over bar 605 +/- 91 L, (k(d)) over bar = 0.77 +/- 0.22 hours(-1), (t(tag)) over bar = 0.44 +/- 0.02 hours. Clearance was not affected by the presence of MTX, and, hence, steady-state drug concentrations and maintenance dosage requirements were similar. A population PK model was successfully developed for HCQ.