Wage inequality and trade liberalization : evidence from Argentina

Wage inequality has increased substantially in Argentina during the nineties. At the same time during this decade Argentina has gone through a rapid and deep process of trade liberalization. In this paper we try to associate both phenomena. In particular, we attempt to answer the following question: Did trade liberalization play any role in shaping the argentine wage structure during the period studied? Specifically, we test whether those sectors where import penetration deepened are also the sectors where, ceteris paribus, a higher increase in wage inequality has taken place. We fmd evidence that supports this hypothesis.

Risky business: social media metrics and political risk analysis

A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de “big data” de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.

Ensaios em economia política aplicada

Esta tese é constituída por três capítulos que se enquadram na área de Microeconomia Aplicada, sendo dois deles de Economia Política Aplicada e o outro de Economia da Educação. O primeiro capítulo investiga se a eleição de mulheres para a prefeitura impacta a inserção de outras mulheres no mercado político, reduzindo-se assim uma preferência pré-estabelecida pelos eleitores de não votar em mulheres. Para realizar o exercício, utiliza-se um experimento de Regressão em Descontinuidade onde explora-se eleições em que uma mulher perdeu ou ganhou por uma margem pequena de votos para um candidato homem, a ponto do gênero eleito ser aleatório. Os resultados mostram que a eleição de uma mulher tem impacto apenas em ambientes mais propícios a eleger mulheres (o que foi mensurado aqui pelo percentual de vereadoras eleitas) ou em locais onde os candidatos tinham maior qualidade (medido pela escolaridade). O segundo artigo estima o impacto da divulgação da qualidade escolar sobre a migração dos alunos entre escolas. A ideia é que ao tornar-se público o sinal de qualidade, escolas e alunos têm incentivos para se adaptarem conforme sua demanda por qualidade. Para isso, explora-se um desenho de Regressão em Descontinuidade Fuzzy devido a um dos critérios de divulgação do IDEB ser a escola ter no mínimo 20 alunos matriculados na série avaliada. Os resultados mostram que as escolas que tiveram IDEB divulgado tiveram maior migração de alunos e, em especial, de alunos em condições de vulnerabilidade. O terceiro artigo avalia a hipótese de exogeneidade da abertura comercial brasileira, promovida no final da década de 1980 e início da de 1990. Há uma vasta literatura que explora os efeitos da abertura comercial sobre o mercado de trabalho, desigualdade de renda, pobreza e crescimento econômico. Tais trabalhos consideram o processo de liberalização brasileiro como não correlacionado com as demandas de nenhum setor de atividade econômica específico, o que justificaria utilizar o período de abertura como um instrumento para lidar com endogeneidade nas estimações. Nós apresentamos evidência de que, embora não correlacionado com nenhum setor em especial, a abertura estava correlacionada com a distribuição de capital político dos governos nesse período, e pode ter funcionado como uma estratégica clara de fortalecimento político ou, pelo menos, teve o contexto político como um facilitador do processo.

Betting on winner: the effect of local elections on corporate political activity outcomes

How can managers successfully access political rents by way of corporate political strategies (CPA)? Existing research has suggested several endogenous factors that correlate with CPA outcomes. I offer a more robust solution to this problem. Drawing on insights from the perspective of CPA as exchanges between firms and political decision-makers, and from the special interest politics of political economy, I develop and test a causal mechanism that links local elections, legislative bargaining and access to political rents at the national level. I conducted a natural experiment using regression discontinuity design and propensity score matching in municipal elections in Brazil to show that firms enjoy superior access to subsidized financing from the state-owned national development bank (BNDES) when they decide to invest in municipalities whose winning mayoral candidate is coalition-aligned with the national ruler. This effect fades away fades away as the level of competition in the local election decreases. The evidence implies that when managers bet on national coalition-aligned winners in close local elections, they positively affect CPA outcomes. I extend the exchange-based typology of corporate political strategies by offering a novel possibility of targeting voters with financial inducements, which I call a private local development strategy. Finally, these results show that firms exchange their project-execution capabilities for superior access to subsidized financing.

The Limits of political compromise: debt ceilings and political competition

We study the desirability of limits on the public debt and of political competition in an economy where political parties alternate in office. Due to rent-seeking motives, incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimal level. Parties cannot commit to future policies, but they can forge a political compromise where each party curbs excessive spending when in office if it expects future governments to do the same. In contrast to the received literature, we find that strict limits on government borrowing can exacerbate political-economy distortions by rendering a political compromise unsustainable. This tends to happen when political competition is limited. Conversely, a tight limit on the public debt fosters a compromise that yields the efficient outcome when political competition is vigorous, saving the economy from immiseration. Our analysis thus suggests a legislative tradeoff between restricting political competition and constraining the ability of governments to issue debt.

Foreign support, internal political disputes and mass killings

This paper studies the incentives underlying the relations between foreign countries and rival domestic groups. It models the interaction in a infinitely-repeated game between these three players. The domestic groups bargain for a split of the domestic surplus and may engage in violent dispute for power and in unilateral mass killing processes. The foreign country may choose to support one of these groups in exchange for monetary transfers. The paper characterizes the parametric set in which strategies leading to no violent disputes nor mass killings are Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibra in the presence of foreign support, but not in its absence.

Spatial spillovers and political coordination in public health provision

We estimate the impact of the main unconditional federal grant (Fundo de Participaçãodos Municípios - FPM) to Brazilian municipalities as well as its spillover from the neighboring cities on local health outcomes. We consider data from 2002 to 2007 (Brollo et al, 2013) and explore the FPM distribution rule according to population brackets to apply a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) using cities near the thresholds. In elasticity terms, we nd a reduction on infant mortality rate (-0.18) and on morbidity rate (- 0.41), except in the largest cities of our sample. We also nd an increase on the access to the main program of visiting the vulnerable families, the Family Health Program (Programa Sa ude da Família - PSF). The e ects are stronger for the smallest cities of our sample and we nd increase: (i) On the percentage of residents enrolled in the program (0.36), (ii) On the per capita number of PSF visits (1.59), and (iii) On the per capita number of PSF visits with a doctor (1.8) and nurse (2). After we control for the FPM spillover using neighboring cities near diferent thresholds, our results show that the reduction in morbidity and mortality is largely due to the spillover e ect, but there are negative spillover on preventive actions, as PSF doctors visits and vaccination. Finally, the negative spillover e ect on health resources may be due free riding or political coordination problems, as in the case of the number of hospital beds, but also due to to competition for health professionals, as in the case of number of doctors (-0.35 and -0.87, respectively), specially general practitioners and surgeons (-1.84 and -2.45).

Economia verde: a reiteração de ideias à espera de ações

A Iniciativa Economia Verde, numa perspectiva de análise teórica, é uma reiteração de velhas ideias; não é propriamente um novo conceito, mas sim a proposta de um conjunto de instrumentos para o alcance do desenvolvimento sustentável. Uma novidade importante dessa inciativa é a defesa do ativismo de políticas de indução às mudanças tecnológicas ambientais, o que revela sua aproximação com a economia evolucionária. No plano da economia política internacional, o potencial de conflito Norte-Sul sobre a Iniciativa Economia Verde se vincula aos impasses registrados nas negociações sobre liberalização do comércio de bens e serviços ambientais na Rodada Doha da OMC.

Comércio internacional e meio ambiente: estímulo à produção sustentável ou mero protecionismo comercial a posição do Brasil em dois casos de litígio

The World Trade Organization (WTO) was established in 1994 as a result of the Uruguay Round, and has as its principal aim advocate for the maintenance of free trade between nations. The preamble of its Constitutive Agreement specifically cites as an institution the goal of achieving sustainable development and the pursuit of protecting and preserving the environment, bringing into the sphere of world trade the idea that concern for the environmental cause is not restricted only the group of environmentalists, but rather has entered the economic landscape in a way not only ideological, but also pragmatic. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1947, part of the GATT 1994, contains a device that allows the adoption of trade restrictive measures, provided that such measures aimed at protecting the environment - Article XX. The Settlement Body (DSB) is part of the WTO and acts in dissolving disputes between the countries motivated by trade. It examines two cases where countries have imposed restrictive trade measures with environmental justification. The first case was closed in 1996, with award of damages given to Brazil, on the breakdown of U.S. environmental legislation imposed on imported gasoline from Brazil - and the second, begun in 2005 and closed in 2007, coming out victorious again Brazil is on the import ban on retreaded tires to Brazil. The objective is to answer the question: how the environment is treated in the midst of trade discussions - which is aimed at its protection or its use with economic objectives in disguise? For the preparation of this work, extensive documentary research was undertaken with the virtual site of the WTO to review the entire production of legal cases and subsequent analysis of the key issue for the work, and literature of authors who have studied the tense relationship between trade international environment. The first case, it could be seen that the political movement performed by the U.S. with the aim of achieving acceptable standards of air quality was an institutional effort to ensure the quality of air, and thus would be inappropriate to say that the regulation of gasoline was merely a disguised trade barrier.However, a careful analysis of the implementation and operation of gasoline regulation may reveal intentions disguised trade and U.S. environmental argument did not hold. The weight of this environment was relegated, since there were clearly outside interests to the environmental cause. The second case, it was realized that, despite clear attempts by the EC to promote ecological dumping, send when brought to Brazil, supposedly a country with weaker environmental structure on surveillance, a residue that, pursuant to internal policies, as could not be sent to their own landfills, the Brazilian discourse remained focused on the environmental cause, and this sort there was the existence of disguised trade barriers, but of importance, at least a priori, the discussion of foreign forces on the environment environment because there is no way to legally justify the reversal of the total understanding of the first judging body, the sight of all the arguments presented by Brazil and the nonsubmission of new facts upon appeal. Still, quite heartening to reflect on the role of trade liberalization on the environment in general, because, while they do not reach a definitive conclusion will reveal positions in both directions, both for and against, the that only adds to the discussions and makes this a very fertile topic for future research

Trade liberalization in the Western Hemisphere

Foreword of Enrique V. Iglesias and Gert Rosenthal

Economic reforms, growth and employment: labour markets in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

The income distribution problem in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Investment and economic reform in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Trade and financial liberalization in the context of external shocks and inconsistent domestic policies

Includes bibliography