Power Law Behavior and Self-similarity in Modern Industrial Accidents

Advances in technology have produced more and more intricate industrial systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical centers and petroleum platforms. Such complex plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller units and human operators, rising potentially disastrous failure, which can propagate across subsystem boundaries. This paper analyzes industrial accident data-series in the perspective of statistical physics and dynamical systems. Global data is collected from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the time period from year 1903 up to 2012. The statistical distributions of the number of fatalities caused by industrial accidents reveal Power Law (PL) behavior. We analyze the evolution of the PL parameters over time and observe a remarkable increment in the PL exponent during the last years. PL behavior allows prediction by extrapolation over a wide range of scales. In a complementary line of thought, we compare the data using appropriate indices and use different visualization techniques to correlate and to extract relationships among industrial accident events. This study contributes to better understand the complexity of modern industrial accidents and their ruling principles.

Channel Adaptive MAC Protocol with Traffic-Aware Distributed Power Management in Wireless Sensor Networks-Some Performance Issues

In Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN), neglecting the effects of varying channel quality can lead to an unnecessary wastage of precious battery resources and in turn can result in the rapid depletion of sensor energy and the partitioning of the network. Fairness is a critical issue when accessing a shared wireless channel and fair scheduling must be employed to provide the proper flow of information in a WSN. In this paper, we develop a channel adaptive MAC protocol with a traffic-aware dynamic power management algorithm for efficient packet scheduling and queuing in a sensor network, with time varying characteristics of the wireless channel also taken into consideration. The proposed protocol calculates a combined weight value based on the channel state and link quality. Then transmission is allowed only for those nodes with weights greater than a minimum quality threshold and nodes attempting to access the wireless medium with a low weight will be allowed to transmit only when their weight becomes high. This results in many poor quality nodes being deprived of transmission for a considerable amount of time. To avoid the buffer overflow and to achieve fairness for the poor quality nodes, we design a Load prediction algorithm. We also design a traffic aware dynamic power management scheme to minimize the energy consumption by continuously turning off the radio interface of all the unnecessary nodes that are not included in the routing path. By Simulation results, we show that our proposed protocol achieves a higher throughput and fairness besides reducing the delay

Optimal Traffic Grooming in WDM using Lighttours

Recent developments in optical communications have allowed simpler optical devices to improve network resource utilization. As such, we propose adding a lambda-monitoring device to a wavelength-routing switch (WRS) allowing better performance when traffic is routed and groomed. This device may allow a WRS to aggregate traffic over optical routes without incurring in optical-electrical-optical conversion for the existing traffic. In other words, optical routes can be taken partially to route demands creating a sort of "lighttours". In this paper, we compare the number of OEO conversions needed to route a complete given traffic matrix using either lighttours or lightpaths

G+: Enhanced Traffic Grooming in WDM Mesh Networks using Lighttours

In this article, a new technique for grooming low-speed traffic demands into high-speed optical routes is proposed. This enhancement allows a transparent wavelength-routing switch (WRS) to aggregate traffic en route over existing optical routes without incurring expensive optical-electrical-optical (OEO) conversions. This implies that: a) an optical route may be considered as having more than one ingress node (all inline) and, b) traffic demands can partially use optical routes to reach their destination. The proposed optical routes are named "lighttours" since the traffic originating from different sources can be forwarded together in a single optical route, i.e., as taking a "tour" over different sources towards the same destination. The possibility of creating lighttours is the consequence of a novel WRS architecture proposed in this article, named "enhanced grooming" (G+). The ability to groom more traffic in the middle of a lighttour is achieved with the support of a simple optical device named lambda-monitor (previously introduced in the RingO project). In this article, we present the new WRS architecture and its advantages. To compare the advantages of lighttours with respect to classical lightpaths, an integer linear programming (ILP) model is proposed for the well-known multilayer problem: traffic grooming, routing and wavelength assignment The ILP model may be used for several objectives. However, this article focuses on two objectives: maximizing the network throughput, and minimizing the number of optical-electro-optical conversions used. Experiments show that G+ can route all the traffic using only half of the total OEO conversions needed by classical grooming. An heuristic is also proposed, aiming at achieving near optimal results in polynomial time

Testing for Hidden Information and Action in Automobile Insurance Market

I test the presence of hidden information and action in the automobile insurance market using a data set from several Colombian insurers. To identify the presence of hidden information I find a common knowledge variable providing information on policyholder s risk type which is related to both experienced risk and insurance demand and that was excluded from the pricing mechanism. Such unused variable is the record of policyholder s traffic offenses. I find evidence of adverse selection in six of the nine insurance companies for which the test is performed. From the point of view of hidden action I develop a dynamic model of effort in accident prevention given an insurance contract with bonus experience rating scheme and I show that individual accident probability decreases with previous accidents. This result brings a testable implication for the empirical identification of hidden action and based on that result I estimate an econometric model of the time spans between the purchase of the insurance and the first claim, between the first claim and the second one, and so on. I find strong evidence on the existence of unobserved heterogeneity that deceives the testable implication. Once the unobserved heterogeneity is controlled, I find conclusive statistical grounds supporting the presence of moral hazard in the Colombian insurance market.

Admission control schemes for TCP elastic traffic in class-based networks

En aquesta tesi proposem dos esquemes de xarxa amb control d'admissió per al trànsit elàstic TCP amb mecanismes senzills. Ambdós esquemes són capaços de proporcionar throughputs diferents i aïllament entre fluxos, on un "flux" es defineix com una seqüència de paquets relacionats dins d'una connexió TCP. Quant a l'arquitectura, ambdós fan servir classes de paquets amb diferents prioritats de descart, i un control d'admissió implícit, edge-to-edge i basat en mesures. En el primer esquema, les mesures són per flux, mentre que en el segon, les mesures són per agregat. El primer esquema aconsegueix un bon rendiment fent servir una modificació especial de les fonts TCP, mentre que el segon aconsegueix un bon rendiment amb fonts TCP estàndard. Ambdós esquemes han estat avaluats satisfactòriament a través de simulació en diferents topologies de xarxa i càrregues de trànsit.

Enhanced fault recovery methods for protected traffic services in GMPLS networks

Les noves tecnologies a la xarxa ens permeten transportar, cada cop més, grans volums d' informació i trànsit de xarxa amb diferents nivells de prioritat. En aquest escenari, on s'ofereix una millor qualitat de servei, les conseqüències d'una fallada en un enllaç o en un node esdevenen més importants. Multiprotocol Lavel Switching (MPLS), juntament amb l'extensió a MPLS generalitzat (GMPLS), proporcionen mecanismes ràpids de recuperació de fallada establint camins, Label Switch Path (LSPs), redundants per ser utilitzats com a camins alternatius. En cas de fallada podrem utilitzar aquests camins per redireccionar el trànsit. El principal objectiu d'aquesta tesi ha estat millorar alguns dels actuals mecanismes de recuperació de fallades MPLS/GMPLS, amb l'objectiu de suportar els requeriments de protecció dels serveis proporcionats per la nova Internet. Per tal de fer aquesta avaluació s'han tingut en compte alguns paràmetres de qualitat de protecció com els temps de recuperació de fallada, les pèrdues de paquets o el consum de recursos. En aquesta tesi presentem una completa revisió i comparació dels principals mètodes de recuperació de fallada basats en MPLS. Aquest anàlisi inclou els mètodes de protecció del camí (backups globals, backups inversos i protecció 1+1), els mètodes de protecció locals i els mètodes de protecció de segments. També s'ha tingut en compte l'extensió d'aquests mecanismes a les xarxes òptiques mitjançant el pla de control proporcionat per GMPLS. En una primera fase d'aquest treball, cada mètode de recuperació de fallades és analitzat sense tenir en compte restriccions de recursos o de topologia. Aquest anàlisi ens dóna una primera classificació dels millors mecanismes de protecció en termes de pèrdues de paquets i temps de recuperació. Aquest primer anàlisi no és aplicable a xarxes reals. Per tal de tenir en compte aquest nou escenari, en una segona fase, s'analitzen els algorismes d'encaminament on sí tindrem en compte aquestes limitacions i restriccions de la xarxa. Es presenten alguns dels principals algorismes d'encaminament amb qualitat de servei i alguna de les principals propostes d'encaminament per xarxes MPLS. La majoria dels actual algorismes d'encaminament no tenen en compte l'establiment de rutes alternatives o utilitzen els mateixos objectius per seleccionar els camins de treball i els de protecció. Per millorar el nivell de protecció introduïm i formalitzem dos nous conceptes: la Probabilitat de fallada de la xarxa i l'Impacte de fallada. Un anàlisi de la xarxa a nivell físic proporciona un primer element per avaluar el nivell de protecció en termes de fiabilitat i disponibilitat de la xarxa. Formalitzem l'impacte d'una fallada, quant a la degradació de la qualitat de servei (en termes de retard i pèrdues de paquets). Expliquem la nostra proposta per reduir la probabilitat de fallada i l'impacte de fallada. Per últim fem una nova definició i classificació dels serveis de xarxa segons els valors requerits de probabilitat de fallada i impacte. Un dels aspectes que destaquem dels resultats d'aquesta tesi és que els mecanismes de protecció global del camí maximitzen la fiabilitat de la xarxa, mentre que les tècniques de protecció local o de segments de xarxa minimitzen l'impacte de fallada. Per tant podem assolir mínim impacte i màxima fiabilitat aplicant protecció local a tota la xarxa, però no és una proposta escalable en termes de consum de recursos. Nosaltres proposem un mecanisme intermig, aplicant protecció de segments combinat amb el nostre model d'avaluació de la probabilitat de fallada. Resumint, aquesta tesi presenta diversos mecanismes per l'anàlisi del nivell de protecció de la xarxa. Els resultats dels models i mecanismes proposats milloren la fiabilitat i minimitzen l'impacte d'una fallada en la xarxa.

Advances in Model-Based Traffic Vision

Model based vision allows use of prior knowledge of the shape and appearance of specific objects to be used in the interpretation of a visual scene; it provides a powerful and natural way to enforce the view consistency constraint. A model based vision system has been developed within ESPRIT VIEWS: P2152 which is able to classify and track moving objects (cars and other vehicles) in complex, cluttered traffic scenes. The fundamental basis of the method has been previously reported. This paper presents recent developments which have extended the scope of the system to include (i) multiple cameras, (ii) variable camera geometry, and (iii) articulated objects. All three enhancements have easily been accommodated within the original model-based approach

A field study of factors influencing the concentrations of a traffic-related pollutant in the vicinity of a complex urban junction

The paper describes a field study focused on the dispersion of a traffic-related pollutant within an area close to a busy intersection between two street canyons in Central London. Simultaneous measurements of airflow, traffic flow and carbon monoxide concentrations ([CO]) are used to explore the causes of spatial variability in [CO] over a full range of background wind directions. Depending on the roof-top wind direction, evidence of both flow channelling and recirculation regimes were identified from data collected within the main canyon and the intersection. However, at the intersection, the merging of channelled flows from the canyons increased the flow complexity and turbulence intensity. These features, coupled with the close proximity of nearby queuing traffic in several directions, led to the highest overall time-average measured [CO] occurring at the intersection. Within the main street canyon, the data supported the presence of a helical flow regime for oblique roof-top flows, leading to increased [CO] on the canyon leeward side. Predominant wind directions led to some locations having significantly higher diurnal average [CO] due to being mostly on the canyon leeward side during the study period. For all locations, small changes in the background wind direction could cause large changes in the in-street mean wind angle and local turbulence intensity, implying that dispersion mechanisms would be highly sensitive to small changes in above roof flows. During peak traffic flow periods, concentrations within parallel side streets were approximately four times lower than within the main canyon and intersection which has implications for controlling personal exposure. Overall, the results illustrate that pollutant concentrations can be highly spatially variable over even short distances within complex urban geometries, and that synoptic wind patterns, traffic queue location and building topologies all play a role in determining where pollutant hot spots occur.

Cognitive process modelling of controllers in en route air traffic control

In recent years, various efforts have been made in air traffic control (ATC) to maintain traffic safety and efficiency in the face of increasing air traffic demands. ATC is a complex process that depends to a large degree on human capabilities, and so understanding how controllers carry out their tasks is an important issue in the design and development of ATC systems. In particular, the human factor is considered to be a serious problem in ATC safety and has been identified as a causal factor in both major and minor incidents. There is, therefore, a need to analyse the mechanisms by which errors occur due to complex factors and to develop systems that can deal with these errors. From the cognitive process perspective, it is essential that system developers have an understanding of the more complex working processes that involve the cooperative work of multiple controllers. Distributed cognition is a methodological framework for analysing cognitive processes that span multiple actors mediated by technology. In this research, we attempt to analyse and model interactions that take place in en route ATC systems based on distributed cognition. We examine the functional problems in an ATC system from a human factors perspective, and conclude by identifying certain measures by which to address these problems. This research focuses on the analysis of air traffic controllers' tasks for en route ATC and modelling controllers' cognitive processes.