Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Concrete Pavement Mixture Design and Analysis (MDA): An Innovative Approach To Proportioning Concrete Mixtures, TPF-5(205), 2015

Mixture proportioning is routinely a matter of using a recipe based on a previously produced concrete, rather than adjusting the proportions based on the needs of the mixture and the locally available materials. As budgets grow tighter and increasing attention is being paid to sustainability metrics, greater attention is beginning to be focused on making mixtures that are more efficient in their usage of materials yet do not compromise engineering performance. Therefore, a performance-based mixture proportioning method is needed to provide the desired concrete properties for a given project specification. The proposed method should be user friendly, easy to apply in practice, and flexible in terms of allowing a wide range of material selection. The objective of this study is to further develop an innovative performance-based mixture proportioning method by analyzing the relationships between the selected mix characteristics and their corresponding effects on tested properties. The proposed method will provide step-by-step instructions to guide the selection of required aggregate and paste systems based on the performance requirements. Although the provided guidance in this report is primarily for concrete pavements, the same approach can be applied to other concrete applications as well.

The 2010 May Flaring Episode of Cygnus X-3 in Radio, X-rays, and γ-rays

In 2009, Cygnus X-3 (Cyg X-3) became the first microquasar to be detected in the GeV γ-ray regime, via the satellites Fermi and AGILE. The addition of this new band to the observational toolbox holds promise for building a more detailed understanding of the relativistic jets of this and other systems. We present a rich data set of radio, hard and soft X-ray, and γ-ray observations of Cyg X-3 made during a flaring episode in 2010 May. We detect a ~3 day softening and recovery of the X-ray emission, followed almost immediately by a ~1 Jy radio flare at 15 GHz, followed by a 4.3σ γ-ray flare (E > 100 MeV) ~1.5 days later. The radio sampling is sparse, but we use archival data to argue that it is unlikely the γ-ray flare was followed by any significant unobserved radio flares. In this case, the sequencing of the observed events is difficult to explain in a model in which the γ-ray emission is due to inverse Compton scattering of the companion star's radiation field. Our observations suggest that other mechanisms may also be responsible for γ-ray emission from Cyg X-3.

Children's Mental Health and Well-Being Work-group Final Report, December 15, 2015

The children's mental health and well-being work group was formed in response to legislative direction to facilitate a study and make recommendations regarding children's mental health and the systems that assist children and families in Iowa.

Fusarium wilt incidence and common bean yield according to the preceding crop and the soil tillage system

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of preceding crops and tillage systems on the incidence of Fusarium wilt (Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. phaseoli) and common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) yield. The cultivar BRS Valente was cultivated under center‑pivot irrigation in the winter seasons of 2003, 2004 and 2005, after several preceding crops established in the summer seasons. Preceding crops included the legumes Cajanus cajan (pigeon pea), Stylosanthes guianensis, and Crotalaria spectabilis; the grasses Pennisetum glaucum (millet), Sorghum bicolor (forage sorghum), Panicum maximum, and Urochloa brizantha; and a consortium of maize (Zea mays) and U. brizantha (Santa Fé system). Experiments followed a strip‑plot design, with four replicates. Fusarium wilt incidence was higher in the no‑tillage system. Higher disease incidences corresponded to lower bean yields in 2003 and 2004. Previous summer cropping with U. brizantha, U. brizantha + maize consortium, and millet showed the lowest disease incidence. Therefore, the choice of preceding crops must be taken into account for managing Fusarium wilt on irrigated common bean crops in the Brazilian Cerrado.

Implementation of an Integrated Activity-Based Costing in a Holistic Database Management System and its Implications for Operations Management

Diplomityössä on tutkittu reaaliaikaisen toimintolaskennan toteuttamista suomalaisen lasersiruja valmistavan PK-yrityksen tietojärjestelmään. Lisäksi on tarkasteltu toimintolaskennan vaikutuksia operatiiviseen toimintaan sekä toimintojen johtamiseen. Työn kirjallisuusosassa on käsitelty kirjallisuuslähteiden perusteella toimintolaskennan teorioita, laskentamenetelmiä sekä teknisessä toteutuksessa käytettyjä teknologioita. Työn toteutusosassa suunniteltiin ja toteutettiin WWW-pohjainen toimintolaskentajärjestelmä case-yrityksen kustannuslaskennan sekä taloushallinnon avuksi. Työkalu integroitiin osaksi yrityksen toiminnanohjaus- sekä valmistuksenohjausjärjestelmää. Perinteisiin toimintolaskentamallien tiedonkeruujärjestelmiin verrattuna case-yrityksessä syötteet toimintolaskentajärjestelmälle tulevat reaaliaikaisesti osana suurempaa tietojärjestelmäintegraatiota.Diplomityö pyrkii luomaan suhteen toimintolaskennan vaatimusten ja tietokantajärjestelmien välille. Toimintolaskentajärjestelmää yritys voi hyödyntää esimerkiksi tuotteiden hinnoittelussa ja kustannuslaskennassa näkemällä tuotteisiin liittyviä kustannuksia eri näkökulmista. Päätelmiä voidaan tehdä tarkkaan kustannusinformaatioon perustuen sekä määrittää järjestelmän tuottaman datan perusteella, onko tietyn projektin, asiakkuuden tai tuotteen kehittäminen taloudellisesti kannattavaa.

Novel FOXF1 Mutations in Sporadic and Familial Cases of Alveolar Capillary Dysplasia with Misaligned Pulmonary Veins Imply a Role for its DNA Binding Domain.

Alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins (ACD/MPV) is a rare and lethal developmental disorder of the lung defined by a constellation of characteristic histopathological features. Nonpulmonary anomalies involving organs of gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, and genitourinary systems have been identified in approximately 80% of patients with ACD/MPV. We have collected DNA and pathological samples from more than 90 infants with ACD/MPV and their family members. Since the publication of our initial report of four point mutations and 10 deletions, we have identified an additional 38 novel nonsynonymous mutations of FOXF1 (nine nonsense, seven frameshift, one inframe deletion, 20 missense, and one no stop). This report represents an up to date list of all known FOXF1 mutations to the best of our knowledge. Majority of the cases are sporadic. We report four familial cases of which three show maternal inheritance, consistent with paternal imprinting of the gene. Twenty five mutations (60%) are located within the putative DNA-binding domain, indicating its plausible role in FOXF1 function. Five mutations map to the second exon. We identified two additional genic and eight genomic deletions upstream to FOXF1. These results corroborate and extend our previous observations and further establish involvement of FOXF1 in ACD/MPV and lung organogenesis.

Self-Organising Maps and Correlation Analysis as a Tool to Explore Patterns in Excitation-Emission Matrix Data Sets and to Discriminate Dissolved Organic Matter Fluorescence Components

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a complex mixture of organic compounds, ubiquitous in marine and freshwater systems. Fluorescence spectroscopy, by means of Excitation-Emission Matrices (EEM), has become an indispensable tool to study DOM sources, transport and fate in aquatic ecosystems. However the statistical treatment of large and heterogeneous EEM data sets still represents an important challenge for biogeochemists. Recently, Self-Organising Maps (SOM) has been proposed as a tool to explore patterns in large EEM data sets. SOM is a pattern recognition method which clusterizes and reduces the dimensionality of input EEMs without relying on any assumption about the data structure. In this paper, we show how SOM, coupled with a correlation analysis of the component planes, can be used both to explore patterns among samples, as well as to identify individual fluorescence components. We analysed a large and heterogeneous EEM data set, including samples from a river catchment collected under a range of hydrological conditions, along a 60-km downstream gradient, and under the influence of different degrees of anthropogenic impact. According to our results, chemical industry effluents appeared to have unique and distinctive spectral characteristics. On the other hand, river samples collected under flash flood conditions showed homogeneous EEM shapes. The correlation analysis of the component planes suggested the presence of four fluorescence components, consistent with DOM components previously described in the literature. A remarkable strength of this methodology was that outlier samples appeared naturally integrated in the analysis. We conclude that SOM coupled with a correlation analysis procedure is a promising tool for studying large and heterogeneous EEM data sets.

Plataforma eMovie : xarxa social de pel·lícules

En aquest treball s'han estudiat diferents sistemes de recomanació, i s'han utilitzat per a veure com podrien arribar a recomanar pel·lícules als usuaris. Això s'ha realitzat dins del context de la recomanació web, un sistema mitjançant el qual es poden obtenir moltes dades dels usuaris, però que per altra banda requereix de temps de resposta ràpids.

Value added logistics in supply and demand chains. Smile. Part 1. eBusiness between global company and itslocal sme supplier network

VALOSADE (Value Added Logistics in Supply and Demand Chains) is the research project of Anita Lukka's VALORE (Value Added Logistics Research) research team inLappeenranta University of Technology. VALOSADE is included in ELO (Ebusiness logistics) technology program of Tekes (Finnish Technology Agency). SMILE (SME-sector, Internet applications and Logistical Efficiency) is one of four subprojects of VALOSADE. SMILE research focuses on case network that is composed of small and medium sized mechanical maintenance service providers and global wood processing customers. Basic principle of SMILE study is communication and ebusiness insupply and demand network. This first phase of research concentrates on creating backgrounds for SMILE study and for ebusiness solutions of maintenance case network. The focus is on general trends of ebusiness in supply chains and networksof different industries; total ebusiness system architecture of company networks; ebusiness strategy of company network; information value chain; different factors, which influence on ebusiness solution of company network; and the correlation between ebusiness and competitive advantage. Literature, interviews and benchmarking were used as research methods in this qualitative case study. Networks and end-to-end supply chains are the organizational structures, which can add value for end customer. Information is one of the key factors in these decentralized structures. Because of decentralization of business, information is produced and used in different companies and in different information systems. Information refinement services are needed to manage information flows in company networksbetween different systems. Furthermore, some new solutions like network information systems are utilised in optimising network performance and in standardizingnetwork common processes. Some cases have however indicated, that utilization of ebusiness in decentralized business model is not always a necessity, but value-add of ICT must be defined case-specifically. In the theory part of report, different ebusiness and architecture models are introduced. These models are compared to empirical case data in research results. The biggest difference between theory and empirical data is that models are mainly developed for large-scale companies - not for SMEs. This is due to that implemented network ebusiness solutions are mainly large company centered. Genuine SME network centred ebusiness models are quite rare, and the study in that area has been few in number. Business relationships between customer and their SME suppliers are nowadays concentrated more on collaborative tactical and strategic initiatives besides transaction based operational initiatives. However, ebusiness systems are further mainly based on exchange of operational transactional data. Collaborative ebusiness solutions are in planning or pilot phase in most case companies. Furthermore, many ebusiness solutions are nowadays between two participants, but network and end-to-end supply chain transparency and information systems are quite rare. Transaction volumes, data formats, the types of exchanged information, information criticality,type and duration of business relationship, internal information systems of partners, processes and operation models (e.g. different ordering models) differ among network companies, and furthermore companies are at different stages on networking and ebusiness readiness. Because of former factors, different customer-supplier combinations in network must utilise totally different ebusiness architectures, technologies, systems and standards.

Data-parallel computation in parallel and distributed environments

The past few decades have seen a considerable increase in the number of parallel and distributed systems. With the development of more complex applications, the need for more powerful systems has emerged and various parallel and distributed environments have been designed and implemented. Each of the environments, including hardware and software, has unique strengths and weaknesses. There is no single parallel environment that can be identified as the best environment for all applications with respect to hardware and software properties. The main goal of this thesis is to provide a novel way of performing data-parallel computation in parallel and distributed environments by utilizing the best characteristics of difference aspects of parallel computing. For the purpose of this thesis, three aspects of parallel computing were identified and studied. First, three parallel environments (shared memory, distributed memory, and a network of workstations) are evaluated to quantify theirsuitability for different parallel applications. Due to the parallel and distributed nature of the environments, networks connecting the processors in these environments were investigated with respect to their performance characteristics. Second, scheduling algorithms are studied in order to make them more efficient and effective. A concept of application-specific information scheduling is introduced. The application- specific information is data about the workload extractedfrom an application, which is provided to a scheduling algorithm. Three scheduling algorithms are enhanced to utilize the application-specific information to further refine their scheduling properties. A more accurate description of the workload is especially important in cases where the workunits are heterogeneous and the parallel environment is heterogeneous and/or non-dedicated. The results obtained show that the additional information regarding the workload has a positive impact on the performance of applications. Third, a programming paradigm for networks of symmetric multiprocessor (SMP) workstations is introduced. The MPIT programming paradigm incorporates the Message Passing Interface (MPI) with threads to provide a methodology to write parallel applications that efficiently utilize the available resources and minimize the overhead. The MPIT allows for communication and computation to overlap by deploying a dedicated thread for communication. Furthermore, the programming paradigm implements an application-specific scheduling algorithm. The scheduling algorithm is executed by the communication thread. Thus, the scheduling does not affect the execution of the parallel application. Performance results achieved from the MPIT show that considerable improvements over conventional MPI applications are achieved.