974 resultados para Percolation probability


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The QU-GENE Computing Cluster (QCC) is a hardware and software solution to the automation and speedup of large QU-GENE (QUantitative GENEtics) simulation experiments that are designed to examine the properties of genetic models, particularly those that involve factorial combinations of treatment levels. QCC automates the management of the distribution of components of the simulation experiments among the networked single-processor computers to achieve the speedup.

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Purpose: The aims of this randomized controlled trial were to determine whether there were differences in the disease-free survival (DFS) and toxicity between conventional radiotherapy (CRT) and a continuous 3 week accelerated radiotherapy regimen (ART) in stage III and IV squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity, oropharynx, larynx and hypopharynx. Patients and methods: Patients from 14 centres throughout Australia and New Zealand were randomly assigned to either CRT, using a single 2 Gy/day to a dose of 70 Gy in 35 fractions in 49 days or to ART, using 1.8 Gy twice a day to a dose of 59.4 Gy in 33 fractions in 24 days. Treatment allocation was stratified for site and stage. The accrual began in 1991 and the trial was closed in 1998 when the target of 350 patients was reached. Results: The median potential follow-up time was 53 months (range, 14-101). The DFS at 5 years was 41% (95% CI, 33-50%) for ART and 35% (95% CI, 27-43%) for CRT (P = 0.323) and the hazard ratio was 0.87 in favour of ART (95% CI, 0.66-1.15). The 5-year disease-specific survival rates were 40% for CRT and 46% for ART (P = 0.398) and the loco-regional control was 47% for CRT vs. 52% for ART (P = 0.300). The respective hazard ratios were 0.88 (95% CI, 0.65-1.2) and 0.85 (0.62-1.16), favouring the accelerated arm. In the ART arm, confluent mucositis was more severe (94 vs. 71%; P < 0.001) and peaked about 3 weeks earlier than in the CRT arm, but healing appeared complete in all cases. There were statistically significant reductions in the probability of grade 2 or greater late soft tissue effects over time in the ART arm (P < 0.05), except for the mucous membrane where late effects were similar in both arms. Conclusions: Differences in DFS, disease-specific survival and loco-regional control have not been demonstrated. ART resulted in more acute mucosal toxicity, but this did not result in greater prolongation of the treatment time compared with the CRT arm. There were less late effects in the ART arm, with the exception of late mucosal effects. This trial has confirmed that tumour cell repopulation occurs during conventionally fractionated radiotherapy for head and neck cancer. However, it has also provided additional evidence that overall improvements in the therapeutic ratio using accelerated fractionation strategies are seriously constrained by the need to limit total doses to levels that do not exceed acute mucosal tolerance. The accelerated schedule tested has been shown in this trial to be an acceptable alternative to conventionally fractionated irradiation to 70 Gy. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The characterization of three commercial activated carbons was carried out using the adsorption of various compounds in the aqueous phase. For this purpose the generalized adsorption isotherm was employed, and a modification of the Dubinin-Radushkevich pore filling model, incorporating repulsive contributions to the pore potential as well as bulk liquid phase nonideality, was used as the local isotherm. Eight different flavor compounds were used as adsorbates, and the isotherms were jointly fitted to yield a common pore size distribution for each carbon. The bulk liquid phase nonideality was incorporated through the UNIFAC activity coefficient model, and the repulsive contribution to the pore potential was incorporated through the Steele 10-4-3 potential model. The mean micropore network coordination number for each carbon was also determined from the fitted saturation capacity based on percolation theory. Good agreement between the model and the experimental data was observed. In addition, excellent agreement between the bimodal gamma pore size distribution and density functional theory-cum-regularization-based pore size distribution obtained by argon adsorption was also observed, supporting the validity of the model. The results show that liquid phase adsorption, using adsorptive molecules of different sizes, can be an effective means of characterizing the pore size distribution as well as connectivity. Alternately, if the carbon pore size distribution is independently known, the method can be used to measure critical molecular sizes. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science.

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Objectives: (1) To establish test performance measures for Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission testing of 6-year-old children in a school setting; (2) To investigate whether Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission testing provides a more accurate and effective alternative to a pure tone screening plus tympanometry protocol. Methods: Pure tone screening, tympanometry and transient evoked otoacoustic emission data were collected from 940 subjects (1880 ears), with a mean age of 6.2 years. Subjects were tested in non-sound-treated rooms within 22 schools. Receiver operating characteristics curves along with specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and efficiency values were determined for a variety of transient evoked otoacoustic emission/pure tone screening/tympanometry comparisons. Results: The Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission failure rate for the group was 20.3%. The failure rate for pure tone screening was found to be 8.9%, whilst 18.6% of subjects failed a protocol consisting of combined pure tone screening and tympanometry results. In essence, findings from the comparison of overall Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission pass/fail with overall pure tone screening pass/fail suggested that use of a modified Rhode Island Hearing Assessment Project criterion would result in a very high probability that a child with a pass result has normal hearing (true negative). However, the hit rate was only moderate. Selection of a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) criterion set at greater than or equal to 1 dB appeared to provide the best test performance measures for the range of SNR values investigated. Test performance measures generally declined when tympanometry results were included, with the exception of lower false alarm rates and higher positive predictive values. The exclusion of low frequency data from the Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission SNR versus pure tone screening analysis resulted in improved performance measures. Conclusions: The present study poses several implications for the clinical implementation of Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission screening for entry level school children. Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission pass/fail criteria will require revision. The findings of the current investigation offer support to the possible replacement of pure tone screening with Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission testing for 6-year-old children. However, they do not suggest the replacement of the pure tone screening plus tympanometry battery. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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1. We describe patterns of post-fledging care, dispersal and recruitment in four cohorts of brown thornbills Acanthiza pusilla. We examine what factors influence post-fledging survival and determine how post-hedging care and the timing of dispersal influence the probability of recruitment in this small, pair breeding, Australian passerine. 2. Fledgling thornbills were dependent on their parents for approximately 6 weeks. Male fledglings were more likely than female fledglings to survive until independence. For both sexes, the probability of reaching independence increased as nestling weight increased and was higher for nestlings that fledged later in the season. 3. The timing of dispersal by juvenile thornbills was bimodal. Juveniles either dispersed by the end of the breeding season or remained on their natal territory into the autumn and winter. Juveniles that delayed dispersal were four times more likely to recruit into the local breeding population than juveniles that dispersed early. 4. Delayed dispersal was advantageous because individuals that remained on their natal territory suffered little mortality and tended to disperse only when a local vacancy was available. Consequently, the risk of mortality associated with obtaining a breeding vacancy using this dispersal strategy was low. 5. Males, the more philopatric sex, were far more likely than females to delay dispersal. Despite the apparent advantages of prolonged natal philopatry, however, only 54% of pairs that raised male fledglings to independence had sons that postponed dispersal, and most of these philopatric sons gained vacancies before their parents bred again. Consequently, few sons have the opportunity to help their parents. Constraints on delayed dispersal therefore appear to play a major role in the evolution of pair-breeding in the brown thornbill.

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Effluent water from shrimp ponds typically contains elevated concentrations of dissolved nutrients and suspended particulates compared to influent water. Attempts to improve effluent water quality using filter feeding bivalves and macroalgae to reduce nutrients have previously been hampered by the high concentration of clay particles typically found in untreated pond effluent. These particles inhibit feeding in bivalves and reduce photosynthesis in macroalgae by increasing effluent turbidity. In a small-scale laboratory study, the effectiveness of a three-stage effluent treatment system was investigated. In the first stage, reduction in particle concentration occurred through natural sedimentation. In the second stage, filtration by the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea commercialis (Iredale and Roughley), further reduced the concentration of suspended particulates, including inorganic particles, phytoplankton, bacteria, and their associated nutrients. In the final stage, the macroalga, Gracilaria edulis (Gmelin) Silva, absorbed dissolved nutrients. Pond effluent was collected from a commercial shrimp farm, taken to an indoor culture facility and was left to settle for 24 h. Subsamples of water were then transferred into laboratory tanks stocked with oysters and maintained for 24 h, and then transferred to tanks containing macroalgae for another 24 h. Total suspended solid (TSS), chlorophyll a, total nitrogen (N), total phosphorus (P), NH4+, NO3-, and PO43-, and bacterial numbers were compared before and after each treatment at: 0 h (initial); 24 h (after sedimentation); 48 h (after oyster filtration); 72 h (after macroalgal absorption). The combined effect of the sequential treatments resulted in significant reductions in the concentrations of all parameters measured. High rates of nutrient regeneration were observed in the control tanks, which did not contain oysters or macroalgae. Conversely, significant reductions in nutrients and suspended particulates after sedimentation and biological treatment were observed. Overall, improvements in water quality (final percentage of the initial concentration) were as follows: TSS (12%); total N (28%); total P (14%); NH4+ (76%); NO3- (30%); PO43-(35%); bacteria (30%); and chlorophyll a (0.7%). Despite the probability of considerable differences in sedimentation, filtration and nutrient uptake rates when scaled to farm size, these results demonstrate that integrated treatment has the potential to significantly improve water quality of shrimp farm effluent. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Large (>1600 mum), ingestively masticated particles of bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon L. Pers.) leaf and stem labelled with Yb-169 and Ce-144 respectively were inserted into the rumen digesta raft of heifers grazing bermuda grass. The concentration of markers in digesta sampled from the raft and ventral rumen were monitored at regular intervals over approximately 144 h. The data from the two sampling sites were simultaneously fitted to two pool (raft and ventral rumen-reticulum) models with either reversible or sequential flow between the two pools. The sequential flow model fitted the data equally as well as the reversible flow model but the reversible flow model was used because of its greater application. The reversible flow model, hereafter called the raft model, had the following features: a relatively slow age-dependent transfer rate from the raft (means for a gamma 2 distributed rate parameter for leaf 0.0740 v. stem 0.0478 h(-1)), a very slow first order reversible flow from the ventral rumen to the raft (mean for leaf and stem 0.010 h(-1)) and a very rapid first order exit from the ventral rumen (mean of leaf and stem 0.44 h(-1)). The raft was calculated to occupy approximately 0.82 total rumen DM of the raft and ventral rumen pools. Fitting a sequential two pool model or a single exponential model individually to values from each of the two sampling sites yielded similar parameter values for both sites and faster rate parameters for leaf as compared with stem, in agreement with the raft model. These results were interpreted as indicating that the raft forms a large relatively inert pool within the rumen. Particles generated within the raft have difficulty escaping but once into the ventral rumen pool they escape quickly with a low probability of return to the raft. It was concluded that the raft model gave a good interpretation of the data and emphasized escape from and movement within the raft as important components of the residence time of leaf and stem particles within the rumen digesta of cattle.

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1 The effect of chronic morphine treatment (CMT) on sympathetic innervation of the mouse vas deferens and on alpha (2)-adrenoceptor mediated autoinhibition has been examined using intracellular recording of excitatory junction potentials (EJPs) and histochemistry. 2 In chronically saline treated (CST) preparations. morphine (1 muM) and the alpha (2)-adrenoceptor agonist (clonidine, 1 muM) decreased the mean amplitude of EJPs evoked with 0.03 Hz stimulation by 81+/-8% (n=16) and 92+/-6% (n=7) respectively. In CMT preparations, morphine (1 muM) and clonidine (1 muM) decreased mean EJP amplitude by 68+/-8% (n = 7) and 79+/-8% (n = 7) respectively. 3 When stimulating the sympathetic axons at 0.03 Hz. the mean EJP amplitude recorded from smooth muscles acutely withdrawn from CMT was four times greater than for CST smooth muscles (40.7+/-3.8 mV, n = 7 compared with 9.9+/-0.3 mV, n = 7). 4 Part of the increase in mean EJP amplitude following CMT was produced by a 31% increase in the density of sympathetic axons and varicosities innervating the smooth muscle. 5 Results from the present study indicate that the effectiveness of alpha (2)-adrenocrptor mediated autoinhibition is only slightly reduced in CMT preparations. Most of the cross tolerance which develops between morphine, clonidine and alpha (2)-adrenoceptor mediated autoinhibition occurs as a consequence of increased efficacy of neuromuscular transmission which is produced by an increase in the probability of transmitter release and an increase in the density of sympathetic innervation.

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FILTER is an innovative, CSIRO developed system for treating effluent using high rate land application and subsequent effluent recapture via a closely spaced, subsurface drainage network. We report on the summer performance of a FILTER system established in a subtropical environment on a relatively impermeable swelling clay soil underlain by a deep regional water table. Using secondary treated sewage effluent, the FILTER system produced effluent of tertiary nutrient standards (less than or equal to5 mg/L TN; less than or equal to1 mg/L TP), with salinity levels suitable for subsequent irrigation reuse (EC less than or equal to2.5 dS/m). Removal of faecal coliforms was considerably less effective. The hydraulic loading rate achieved was about two and a half times larger than conventional irrigation demand, but this was associated with high deep percolation losses (e 3 mm/day). Comparisons are made with the original FILTER system developed and tested by Jayawardane et al. in temperate Australia. Suggestions are made for modifications to, and further testing of FILTER in a subtropical environment.

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A deterministic mathematical model which predicts the probability of developing a new drug-resistant parasite population within the human host is reported, The model incorporates the host's specific antibody response to PfEMP1, and also investigates the influence of chemotherapy on the probability of developing a viable drug-resistant parasite population within the host. Results indicate that early, treatment, and a high antibody threshold coupled with a long lag time between antibody stimulation and activity, are risk factors which increase the likelihood of developing a viable drug-resistant parasite population. High parasite mutation rates and fast PfEMP1 var gene switching are also identified as risk factors. The model output allows the relative importance of the various risk factors as well as the relationships between them to be established, thereby increasing the understanding of the conditions which favour the development of a new drug-resistant parasite population.

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The purpose of this study was to review the experience with fallopian tube carcinoma in Queensland and to compare it with previously published data. Thirty-six patients with primary fallopian tube carcinoma treated at the Queensland Gynaecological Cancer Center from 1988 to 1999 were reviewed in a retrospective clinicopathologic study. All patients had primary surgery and 31/36 received chemotherapy postoperatively. Abnormal vaginal bleeding (15/36) and abdominal pain (14/36) were the most common presenting symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Median follow-up was 70.3 months and the median overall survival was 68.1 months. Surgical stage I disease (P = 0.02) and the absence of residual tumor after operation (P = 0.03) were the only factors associated with improved survival. Twenty of the 36 patients (55%) presented with stage I disease and survival was 62.7% at 5 years. No patient with postoperative residual tumor survived. The majority of the patients with fallopian tube carcinoma present with stage I disease at diagnosis, but their survival probability is low compared with that of other early stage gynecological malignancies. If primary surgical debulking cannot achieve macroscopic tumor clearence, the chance of survival is extremely low.

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Penalizing line management for the occurrence of lost time injuries has in some cases had unintended negative consequences. These are discussed. An alternative system is suggested that penalizes line management for accidents where the combination of the probability of recurrence and the maximum reasonable consequences such a recurrence may have exceeds an agreed limit. A reward is given for prompt effective control of the risk to below the agreed risk limit. The reward is smaller than the penalty. High-risk accidents require independent investigation by a safety officer using analytical techniques. Two case examples are given to illustrate the system. Continuous safety improvement is driven by a planned reduction in the agreed risk limit over time and reward for proactive risk assessment and control.

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Two hazard risk assessment matrices for the ranking of occupational health risks are described. The qualitative matrix uses qualitative measures of probability and consequence to determine risk assessment codes for hazard-disease combinations. A walk-through survey of an underground metalliferous mine and concentrator is used to demonstrate how the qualitative matrix can be applied to determine priorities for the control of occupational health hazards. The semi-quantitative matrix uses attributable risk as a quantitative measure of probability and uses qualitative measures of consequence. A practical application of this matrix is the determination of occupational health priorities using existing epidemiological studies. Calculated attributable risks from epidemiological studies of hazard-disease combinations in mining and minerals processing are used as examples. These historic response data do not reflect the risks associated with current exposures. A method using current exposure data, known exposure-response relationships and the semi-quantitative matrix is proposed for more accurate and current risk rankings.

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This note gives a theory of state transition matrices for linear systems of fuzzy differential equations. This is used to give a fuzzy version of the classical variation of constants formula. A simple example of a time-independent control system is used to illustrate the methods. While similar problems to the crisp case arise for time-dependent systems, in time-independent cases the calculations are elementary solutions of eigenvalue-eigenvector problems. In particular, for nonnegative or nonpositive matrices, the problems at each level set, can easily be solved in MATLAB to give the level sets of the fuzzy solution. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.