Statistical evaluation of alternative models of human evolution

An appropriate model of recent human evolution is not only important to understand our own history, but it is necessary to disentangle the effects of demography and selection on genome diversity. Although most genetic data support the view that our species originated recently in Africa, it is still unclear if it completely replaced former members of the Homo genus, or if some interbreeding occurred during its range expansion. Several scenarios of modern human evolution have been proposed on the basis of molecular and paleontological data, but their likelihood has never been statistically assessed. Using DNA data from 50 nuclear loci sequenced in African, Asian and Native American samples, we show here by extensive simulations that a simple African replacement model with exponential growth has a higher probability (78%) as compared with alternative multiregional evolution or assimilation scenarios. A Bayesian analysis of the data under this best supported model points to an origin of our species approximately 141 thousand years ago (Kya), an exit out-of-Africa approximately 51 Kya, and a recent colonization of the Americas approximately 10.5 Kya. We also find that the African replacement model explains not only the shallow ancestry of mtDNA or Y-chromosomes but also the occurrence of deep lineages at some autosomal loci, which has been formerly interpreted as a sign of interbreeding with Homo erectus.

Accuracy of WHO CD4 cell count criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVES: To examine the accuracy of the World Health Organization immunological criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral treatment. METHODS: Analysis of 10 treatment programmes in Africa and South America that monitor both CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 viral load. Adult patients with at least two CD4 counts and viral load measurements between month 6 and 18 after starting a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimen were included. WHO immunological criteria include CD4 counts persistently <100 cells/microl, a fall below the baseline CD4 count, or a fall of >50% from the peak value. Virological failure was defined as two measurements > or =10 0000 copies/ml (higher threshold) or > or =500 copies/ml (lower threshold). Measures of accuracy with exact binomial 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 2009 patients were included. During 1856 person-years of follow up 63 patients met the immunological criteria and 35 patients (higher threshold) and 95 patients (lower threshold) met the virological criteria. Sensitivity [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 17.1% (6.6-33.6%) for the higher and 12.6% (6.7-21.0%) for the lower threshold. Corresponding results for specificity were 97.1% (96.3-97.8%) and 97.3% (96.5-98.0%), for positive predictive value 9.5% (3.6-19.6%) and 19.0% (10.2-30.9%) and for negative predictive value 98.5% (97.9-99.0%) and 95.7% (94.7-96.6%). CONCLUSIONS: The positive predictive value of the WHO immunological criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral treatment in resource-limited settings is poor, but the negative predictive value is high. Immunological criteria are more appropriate for ruling out than for ruling in virological failure in resource-limited settings.

Adenosine Kinase of T. b. Rhodesiense identified as the putative target of 4-[5-(4-phenoxyphenyl)-2H-pyrazol-3-yl]morpholine using chemical proteomics

BACKGROUND: Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), a major parasitic disease spread in Africa, urgently needs novel targets and new efficacious chemotherapeutic agents. Recently, we discovered that 4-[5-(4-phenoxyphenyl)-2H-pyrazol-3-yl]morpholine (compound 1) exhibits specific antitrypanosomal activity with an IC(50) of 1.0 microM on Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense (T. b. rhodesiense), the causative agent of the acute form of HAT. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this work we show adenosine kinase of T. b. rhodesiense (TbrAK), a key enzyme of the parasite purine salvage pathway which is vital for parasite survival, to be the putative intracellular target of compound 1 using a chemical proteomics approach. This finding was confirmed by RNA interference experiments showing that down-regulation of adenosine kinase counteracts compound 1 activity. Further chemical validation demonstrated that compound 1 interacts specifically and tightly with TbrAK with nanomolar affinity, and in vitro activity measurements showed that compound 1 is an enhancer of TbrAK activity. The subsequent kinetic analysis provided strong evidence that the observed hyperactivation of TbrAK is due to the abolishment of the intrinsic substrate-inhibition. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results suggest that TbrAK is the putative target of this compound, and that hyperactivation of TbrAK may represent a novel therapeutic strategy for the development of trypanocides.

Igbo Nationalism and Biafra

When I was living in Igboland in 1993 and from 1994 to 1996, there was not much talk about Biafra, the secessionist republic that had been defeated by the Nigerian army in 1970. Not one Igbo politician suggested that his or her people in the southeast of Nigeria should secede again and proclaim a second Biafra. Since 1984, Nigeria had been ruled by the military, and political hopes focused on a return to democracy. Democracy did come in 1999, but it proved a big disappointment. It did not end the marginalisation of the Igbo but led to an increase in the number of ethnic and religious clashes, with Igbo 'migrants' in northern Nigeria as the main victims. It was Nigeria's fourth transition to democracy, and the Igbo lost out again. When I returned to Igboland for brief visits between 2000 and 2007, the option of a new Biafra was widely discussed. Many of my former colleagues at the University of Nsukka seemed to be in favour of the secession project. I talked to supporters of the main separatist organisation, Movement for the Actualisation of a Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB), and I discussed the project with members of Ohanaeze, a loose association of Igbo politicians, most of whom had distanced themselves from radical secessionism. In order to learn more about the resurgence of Igbo nationalism, I collected Igbo periodicals. A few of them, such as the New Republic, resembled newspapers; others, like News Round, Eastern Sunset or Weekly Hammer (with eight pages in A4 size), looked more like political pamphlets. Street vendors used back issues as wrapping paper, so they were easy to get. Most of them had been edited not in Igboland, but in Lagos, Nigeria's commercial centre and former capital which is home to a huge Igbo diaspora. Though written in English, these publications are addressed exclusively to an Igbo readership, discussing global and domestic affairs from a nationalist point of view. Articles printed here, no matter their topic, are nationalist in the sense that they assess things from the standpoint of Igbo interests. The same is true of many articles on Igbo websites and of some books and brochures written for an Igbo audience. Another source of information on Igbo nationalism are statements by Igbo governors, ministers, members of parliament and other professional politicians who are quoted in newspapers, such as Vanguard or Guardian, and in weekly magazines such as Newswatch, Tell or The News – all with a Nigeria-wide circulation and a multi-ethnic readership. Nigeria's papers and magazines are among the best in Africa. They try to be balanced in their coverage of ethnic conflicts, and they give reliable information. The same cannot be said of periodicals produced by Igbo nationalists. They provide space for Igbo all over the world to voice their opinions, and they tolerate much controversy, but they are not accurate when reporting facts.

Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpes virus and response to antiretroviral therapy: a prospective study of HIV-infected adults

BACKGROUND The possible impact of coinfection with the Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpes virus (KSHV) on the response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is unknown. Prospective studies are rare, particularly in Africa. METHODS We enrolled a prospective cohort of HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Johannesburg, South Africa. The subjects were defined as seropositive to KSHV if they were reactive to either KSHV lytic K8.1 or latent Orf73 antigen or to both. The subjects were followed from ART initiation until 18 months of treatment. HIV viral load and CD4 counts were tested 6 monthly. Linear generalized estimating and log-binomial regression models were used to estimate the effect of KSHV infection on immunologic recovery and response and HIV viral load suppression within 18 months after ART initiation. RESULTS Three hundred eighty-five subjects initiating ART from November 2008 to March 2009 were considered to be eligible including 184 (48%) KSHV+. The KSHV+ group was similar to the KSHV- in terms of age, gender, initiating CD4 count, body mass index, tuberculosis, and hemoglobin levels. The KSHV+ group gained a similar number of cells at 6 [difference of 10 cells per cubic millimeter, 95% confidence interval (CI): -11 to 31], 12 (3 cells per cubic millimeter, 95% CI: -19 to 25), and 18 months (24 cells per cubic millimeter, 95% CI: -13 to 61) compared with that gained by the KSHV- group. Adjusted relative risk of failure to suppress viral load to <400 copies per milliliter (1.03; 95% CI: 0.90 to 1.17) were similar for KSHV+ and KSHV- by 6 months on treatment. CONCLUSIONS In a population with a high KSHV prevalence, HIV-positive adults coinfected with KSHV achieved similar immunologic and virologic responses to ART early after treatment initiation compared with those with KSHV-.

At the Interface of Culture, Development, and Forests: Insights from Bolivia and Kenya

The first part summarises the origins, definitions and debates around the general notions of development, culture and associated more specific concepts such as identity, tradition, exogenous and endogenous knowledge, institutions, governance or territoriality. A second part highlights how culture and development got related to the debates around sustainable governance of natural resources and forests. The third part illustrates on the basis of a case study from Kenya and Bolivia how culture as a transversal element of forest governance is expressed in empirical terms. Moreover it is shown how the cultural dimension affects positively or negatively the outcomes of culturally shaped forest governance outcomes and the role these effects play in shaping the sustainability of the socio-ecological systems of forests in Africa and South America.

Simulating Carbon Stocks and Fluxes of an African Tropical Montane Forest with an Individual-Based Forest Model

Tropical forests are carbon-dense and highly productive ecosystems. Consequently, they play an important role in the global carbon cycle. In the present study we used an individual-based forest model (FORMIND) to analyze the carbon balances of a tropical forest. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration, and competition. Model parameters were calibrated using forest inventory data from a tropical forest at Mt. Kilimanjaro. The simulation results showed that the model successfully reproduces important characteristics of tropical forests (aboveground biomass, stem size distribution and leaf area index). The estimated aboveground biomass (385 t/ha) is comparable to biomass values in the Amazon and other tropical forests in Africa. The simulated forest reveals a gross primary production of 24 tcha-1yr-1. Modeling above- and belowground carbon stocks, we analyzed the carbon balance of the investigated tropical forest. The simulated carbon balance of this old-growth forest is zero on average. This study provides an example of how forest models can be used in combination with forest inventory data to investigate forest structure and local carbon balances.