Length of Stay-Based Patient Flow Models: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Modelling patient flow in health care systems is vital in understanding the system activity and may therefore prove to be useful in improving their functionality. An extensively used measure is the average length of stay which, although easy to calculate and quantify, is not considered appropriate when the distribution is very long-tailed. In fact, simple deterministic models are generally considered inadequate because of the necessity for models to reflect the complex, variable, dynamic and multidimensional nature of the systems. This paper focuses on modelling length of stay and flow of patients. An overview of such modelling techniques is provided, with particular attention to their impact and suitability in managing a hospital service.

Simulating Coxian Phase-type Distributions for Patient Survival

Coxian phase-type distributions are a special type of Markov model that can be used to represent survival times in terms of phases through which an individual may progress until they eventually leave the system completely. Previous research has considered the Coxian phase-type distribution to be ideal in representing patient survival in hospital. However, problems exist in fitting the distributions. This paper investigates the problems that arise with the fitting process by simulating various Coxian phase-type models for the representation of patient survival and examining the estimated parameter values and eigenvalues obtained. The results indicate that numerical methods previously used for fitting the model parameters do not always converge. An alternative technique is therefore considered. All methods are influenced by the choice of initial parameter values. The investigation uses a data set of 1439 elderly patients and models their survival time, the length of time they spend in a UK hospital.

Effect of tailored practice and patient care plans on secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice: cluster randomised controlled trial

Objective: To test the effectiveness of a complex intervention designed, within a theoretical framework, to improve outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease. Design: Cluster randomised controlled multicentre trial. Setting: General practices in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, regions with different healthcare systems. Participants: 903 patients with established coronary heart disease registered with one of 48 practices. Intervention: Tailored care plans for practices (practice based training in prescribing and behaviour change, administrative support, quarterly newsletter), and tailored care plans for patients (motivational interviewing, goal identification, and target setting for lifestyle change) with reviews every four months at the practices. Control practices provided usual care. Main outcome measures: The proportion of patients at 18 month follow-up above target levels for blood pressure and total cholesterol concentration, and those admitted to hospital, and changes in physical and mental health status (SF-12). Results: At baseline the numbers (proportions) of patients above the recommended limits were: systolic blood pressure greater than 140 mm Hg (305/899; 33.9%, 95% confidence interval 30.8% to 33.9%), diastolic blood pressure greater than 90 mm Hg (111/901; 12.3%, 10.2% to 14.5%), and total cholesterol concentration greater than 5 mmol/l (188/860; 20.8%, 19.1% to 24.6%). At the 18 month follow-up there were no significant differences between intervention and control groups in the numbers (proportions) of patients above the recommended limits: systolic blood pressure, intervention 98/360 (27.2%) v control, 133/405 (32.8%), odds ratio 1.51 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 2.30; P=0.06); diastolic blood pressure, intervention 32/360 (8.9%) v control, 40/405 (9.9%), 1.40 (0.75 to 2.64; P=0.29); and total cholesterol concentration, intervention 52/342 (15.2%) v control, 64/391 (16.4%), 1.13 (0.63 to 2.03; P=0.65). The number of patients admitted to hospital over the 18 month study period significantly decreased in the intervention group compared with the control group: 107/415 (25.8%) v 148/435 (34.0%), 1.56 (1.53 to 2.60; P=0.03). Conclusions: Admissions to hospital were significantly reduced after an intensive 18 month intervention to improve outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease, but no other clinical benefits were shown, possibly because of a ceiling effect related to improved management of the disease. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24081411.

Response shift in the assessment of quality of life among people attending cardiac rehabilitation

Objectives: To examine whether any response shift in quality of life assessment over the course of a cardiac rehabilitation programme could be explained by changes in individuals’ internal standards (recalibration), values (reprioritization) and/or conceptualization of quality of life and the extent to which any response shift could be explained by health locus of control, optimism and coping strategy. Design: Longitudinal survey design. Methods: The SEIQoL-DW was administered at the beginning and end of a cardiac rehabilitation programme. At the end of the programme, the SEIQoL-DW then-test was also administered to measure response shift. A total of 57 participants completed these measures and other measures to assess health locus of control, optimism and coping. Results: Response shift effects were observed in this population mainly due to recalibration. When response shift was incorporated into the analysis of QoL a larger treatment effect was observed. Active coping as a mechanism in the response shift model was found to have a significant positive correlation with response shift. Conclusion: This study showed that response shift occurs during cardiac rehabilitation. The occurrence of response shift in QoL ratings over time for this population could have implications for the estimation of the effectiveness of the intervention.

Copying letters to patients with cystic fibrosis (CF): Letter content and patient perceptions of benefit

Background: Copying letters involves generating an extra copy of all correspondence between healthcare professionals about the patient, to the patient.

Perceptions of exercise among people who have not attended cardiac rehabilitation following myocardial infarction.

Perceptions of exercise among nonattenders of cardiac rehabilitation (CR) were explored using semistructured interviews. Analysis indicated that participants did not recognize the cardiovascular benefits of exercise, and perceived keeping
active through daily activities as sufficient for health. Health professionals were perceived to downplay the importance of exercise and CR, and medication was viewed as being more important than exercise for promoting health. The content of CR programmes and the benefits of exercise need to be further explained to patients post-MI, and in a manner that communicates to patients that these programmes are valued by significant others, particularly health professionals.

Birthweight and the risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes: a meta-analysis of observational studies using individual patient data

Aims/hypothesis: We investigated whether children who are heavier at birth have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes. Methods: Relevant studies published before February 2009 were identified from literature searches using MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of all studies containing relevant data were contacted and asked to provide individual patient data or conduct pre-specified analyses. Risk estimates of type 1 diabetes by category of birthweight were calculated for each study, before and after adjustment for potential confounders. Meta-analysis techniques were then used to derive combined ORs and investigate heterogeneity between studies. Results: Data were available for 29 predominantly European studies (five cohort, 24 case-control studies), including 12,807 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, studies consistently demonstrated that children with birthweight from 3.5 to 4 kg had an increased risk of diabetes of 6% (OR 1.06 [95% CI 1.01-1.11]; p=0.02) and children with birthweight over 4 kg had an increased risk of 10% (OR 1.10 [95% CI 1.04-1.19]; p=0.003), compared with children weighing 3.0 to 3.5 kg at birth. This corresponded to a linear increase in diabetes risk of 3% per 500 g increase in birthweight (OR 1.03 [95% CI 1.00-1.06]; p=0.03). Adjustments for potential confounders such as gestational age, maternal age, birth order, Caesarean section, breastfeeding and maternal diabetes had little effect on these findings. Conclusions/interpretation: Children who are heavier at birth have a significant and consistent, but relatively small increase in risk of type 1 diabetes. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.


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Cardiac rehabilitation uptake following myocardial infarction: cross-sectional study in primary care

Background Policies suggest that primary care should be more involved in delivering cardiac rehabilitation. However, there is a lack of information about what is known in primary care regarding patients' invitation or attendance. Aim To determine, within primary care, how many patients are invited to and attend rehabilitation after myocardial infarction (MI), examine sociodemographic factors related to invitation, and compare quality of life between those who do and do not attend. Design of study Review of primary care paper and computer records; cross-sectional questionnaire. Setting Northern Ireland general practices (38); stratified sample, based on practice size and health board area. Method Patients, identified from primary care records, 12-16?weeks after a confirmed diagnosis of MI, were posted questionnaires, including a validated MacNew post-MI quality-of-life questionnaire. Practices returned anonymised data for non-responders. Results Information about rehabilitation was available for 332 of the 432 patients identified (76.9%): 162 (37.5%) returned questionnaires. Of the total sample, 54.4% (235/432) were invited and 37.0% (160/432) attended; of those invited, 68.1% (160/235) attended. Invited patients were younger than those not invited (mean age 63?years [standard deviation SD 16] versus 68.5?years [SD 16]); mean difference 5.5?years (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.7 to 9.3). Among questionnaire responders, those who attended were younger and reported better emotional, physical, and social functioning than non-attenders (P = 0.01; mean differences 0.44 (95% CI = 0.11 to 0.77), 0.48 (95% CI = 0.10 to 0.85) and 0.54 (95% CI = 0.15 to 0.94) respectively). Conclusion Innovative strategies are needed to improve cardiac rehabilitation uptake, integration of hospital and primary care services, and healthcare professionals' awareness of patients' potential for health gain after MI.

A survey of sewer rehabilitation in Malaysia: application of trenchless technologies

This work presents a review of applicable sewer rehabilitation options using trenchless technology in Malaysia. The typical problems faced in wastewater collection systems are analysed and factors that determine the selection method are outlined. This study also highlights the necessary steps to be taken prior to the rehabilitation work. The trenchless technology reviewed here comprises repair, renovation and replacement options. The cost-effectiveness of different rehabilitation methods was identified to assess the economic viability of various options in the Malaysian context. This study reveals that not all the trenchless technologies available in the market are suitable for use in Malaysia, mainly due to incompatibility of the rehabilitation materials used. Furthermore, as trenchless rehabilitation generally involves higher capital outlay than open-cut methods, the choice of rehabilitation method has to be made on a case-to-case basis.

Technologies for sewer rehabilitation in Malaysia

After assuming control of Malaysia's sewer systems, Indah Water Konsortium Sdn. Bhd. commissioned a study into the available sewer rehabilitation techniques in the markety with the intention of finding suitable methods to rehabilitate sewers in and around Malaysia. This report outlines the key findings of the study, focusing on the applicable sewer rehabilitation techniques which use Trenchless Technology.