Atmospheric CO₂ response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability

Tropical explosive volcanism is one of the most important natural factors that significantly impact the climate system and the carbon cycle on annual to multi-decadal time scales. The three largest explosive eruptions in the last 50�years�Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo�occurred in spring/summer in conjunction with El Niño events and left distinct negative signals in the observational temperature and CO2 records. However, confounding factors such as seasonal variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may obscure the forcing-response relationship. We determine for the first time the extent to which initial conditions, i.e., season and phase of the ENSO, and internal variability influence the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to volcanic forcing and how this affects estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Ensemble simulations with the Earth System Model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon) predict that the atmospheric CO2 response is �60 larger when a volcanic eruption occurs during El Niño and in winter than during La Niña conditions. Our simulations suggest that the Pinatubo eruption contributed 11�±�6 to the 25�Pg terrestrial carbon sink inferred over the decade 1990�1999 and �2�±�1 to the 22�Pg oceanic carbon sink. In contrast to recent claims, trends in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon cannot be detected when accounting for the decadal-scale influence of explosive volcanism and related uncertainties. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of natural variability in the carbon cycle for interpretation of observations and for data-model intercomparison.

Gender differences at the transition to higher education between migrants and non-migrants: A comparison between Switzerland and France

Within Western societies women or girls meanwhile outperform men or boys with regard to attainments in primary and secondary education. For example concerning upper secondary degrees the share of females attaining the Matura approaches two thirds in Switzerland, while the share of females attaining the Baccalaureate exceeds fifty per cent in France. However, if transitions to higher education are regarded, the share of entitled females entering such institutions is significantly lower than among men in Switzerland. An opposite pattern is observed in France where females outperform men at this educational stage, too. With regard to migrant background, it has been shown by previous research focussing on secondary effects of ethnic origin that such youths enter the more demanding educational tracks (e.g. higher education) more often than their non-migrant peers if controlled for eligibility, their lower socioeconomic status and performances. However, so far only a few studies refer to the question of a possible gender gap regarding secondary effects of ethnic origin (e.g. Fleischmann et al., mimeo). Thus, with regard to a possible interaction of a migrant background and - for example - a female gender, it is important to note that in both countries many migrant groups have their origins in countries and regions where male advantage remains very strong. This is in particular the case for migrant groups from non-Western countries, e.g. Turkey, Algeria, Marocco or Tunisie, where gender gaps in the literacy rates of up to 18 per cent are still observed. In order to investigate the question of a possible disadvantages of women with a migrant background stemming from such countries when compared to non-migrant females two panel studies - the Tree data in Switzerland and the Panel d’élèves 1995 in France -, are analysed.

Development of dendritic tonic GABAergic inhibition regulates excitability and plasticity in CA1 pyramidal neurons

Synaptic plasticity rules change during development: while hippocampal synapses can be potentiated by a single action potential pairing protocol in young neurons, mature neurons require burst firing to induce synaptic potentiation. An essential component for spike timing-dependent plasticity is the backpropagating action potential (BAP). BAP along the dendrites can be modulated by morphology and ion channel composition, both of which change during late postnatal development. However it is unclear whether these dendritic changes can explain the developmental changes in synaptic plasticity induction rules. Here, we show that tonic GABAergic inhibition regulates dendritic action potential backpropagation in adolescent but not pre-adolescent CA1 pyramidal neurons. These developmental changes in tonic inhibition also altered the induction threshold for spike timing-dependent plasticity in adolescent neurons. This GABAergic regulatory effect upon backpropagation is restricted to distal regions of apical dendrites (>200 μm) and mediated by α5-containing GABA(A) receptors. Direct dendritic recordings demonstrate α5-mediated tonic GABA(A) currents in adolescent neurons which can modulate backpropagating action potentials. These developmental modulations in dendritic excitability could not be explained by concurrent changes in dendritic morphology. To explain our data, model simulations propose a distally-increasing or localized distal expression of dendritic α5 tonic inhibition in mature neurons. Overall, our results demonstrate that dendritic integration and plasticity in more mature dendrites are significantly altered by tonic α5 inhibition in a dendritic region-specific and developmentally-regulated manner.

Assessing the Potential of Multiple Imputation in Sequence Analysis

Sequence analysis and optimal matching are useful heuristic tools for the descriptive analysis of heterogeneous individual pathways such as educational careers, job sequences or patterns of family formation. However, to date it remains unclear how to handle the inevitable problems caused by missing values with regard to such analysis. Multiple Imputation (MI) offers a possible solution for this problem but it has not been tested in the context of sequence analysis. Against this background, we contribute to the literature by assessing the potential of MI in the context of sequence analyses using an empirical example. Methodologically, we draw upon the work of Brendan Halpin and extend it to additional types of missing value patterns. Our empirical case is a sequence analysis of panel data with substantial attrition that examines the typical patterns and the persistence of sex segregation in school-to-work transitions in Switzerland. The preliminary results indicate that MI is a valuable methodology for handling missing values due to panel mortality in the context of sequence analysis. MI is especially useful in facilitating a sound interpretation of the resulting sequence types.

Synergistic User <-> Context Analytics

Various avours of a new research field on (socio-)physical or personal analytics have emerged, with the goal of deriving semantically-rich insights from people's low-level physical sensing combined with their (online) social interactions. In this paper, we argue for more comprehensive data sources, including environmental (e.g. weather, infrastructure) and application-specific data, to better capture the interactions between users and their context, in addition to those among users. To illustrate our proposed concept of synergistic user <-> context analytics, we first provide some example use cases. Then, we present our ongoing work towards a synergistic analytics platform: a testbed, based on mobile crowdsensing and the Internet of Things (IoT), a data model for representing the different sources of data and their connections, and a prediction engine for analyzing the data and producing insights.

Educational Systems and Gender Segregation in Education: A Three-Country Comparison of Germany, Norway and Canada

How do institutional settings and their embedded policy principles affect gender-typed enrolment in educational programmes? Based on gender-sensitive theories on career choice, we hypothesised that gender segregation in education is higher with a wider range of offers of vocational programmes. By analysing youth survey and panel data, we tested this assumption for Germany, Norway and Canada, three countries whose educational systems represent a different mix of academic, vocational and universalistic education principles. We found that vocational programmes are considerably more gender-segregated than are academic (e.g. university) programmes. Men, more so than women, can avoid gender-typed programmes by passing on to a university education. This in turn means that as long as their secondary school achievement does not allow for a higher education career, they have a higher likelihood of being allocated to male-typed programmes in the vocational education and training (VET) system. In addition, social background and the age at which students have to choose educational offers impact on the transition to gendered educational programmes. Overall, gender segregation in education is highest in Germany and the lowest in Canada. We interpret the differences between these countries with respect to the constellations of educational principles and policies in the respective countries.

Computational fluid dynamics modelling in cardiovascular medicine.

This paper reviews the methods, benefits and challenges associated with the adoption and translation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling within cardiovascular medicine. CFD, a specialist area of mathematics and a branch of fluid mechanics, is used routinely in a diverse range of safety-critical engineering systems, which increasingly is being applied to the cardiovascular system. By facilitating rapid, economical, low-risk prototyping, CFD modelling has already revolutionised research and development of devices such as stents, valve prostheses, and ventricular assist devices. Combined with cardiovascular imaging, CFD simulation enables detailed characterisation of complex physiological pressure and flow fields and the computation of metrics which cannot be directly measured, for example, wall shear stress. CFD models are now being translated into clinical tools for physicians to use across the spectrum of coronary, valvular, congenital, myocardial and peripheral vascular diseases. CFD modelling is apposite for minimally-invasive patient assessment. Patient-specific (incorporating data unique to the individual) and multi-scale (combining models of different length- and time-scales) modelling enables individualised risk prediction and virtual treatment planning. This represents a significant departure from traditional dependence upon registry-based, population-averaged data. Model integration is progressively moving towards 'digital patient' or 'virtual physiological human' representations. When combined with population-scale numerical models, these models have the potential to reduce the cost, time and risk associated with clinical trials. The adoption of CFD modelling signals a new era in cardiovascular medicine. While potentially highly beneficial, a number of academic and commercial groups are addressing the associated methodological, regulatory, education- and service-related challenges.

Geschlechtsspezifische Berufswünsche und Ausbildungsentscheidungen

Dass es geschlechtstypische Berufe gibt, und dass die Berufsaspirationen und die Wahl der Berufsausbildung nach der Pflichtschulzeit zwischen den Geschlechtern deutlich differieren, ist eine vielfach empirisch belegte Tatsache. Diese geschlechtstypische Segregation bei der Berufswahl und der zum ausgewählten Beruf führenden schulischen und beruflichen Ausbildung wird bei der Erklärung oftmals (pauschal) auf die geschlechtsspezifische Sozialisation und darin vermittelte Geschlechterstereotype zurückgeführt. Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden aus strukturell-individualistischer Sicht Mechanismen der geschlechtstypischen Berufsaspiration und Berufsbildungsentscheidung beschrieben, die theoriegeleitet empirisch aufgedeckt werden sollen. Für die Analysen werden Daten der drei Wellen des DAB-Panels verwendet, die für die Deutschschweiz Informationen von 203 Schulklassen mit rund 3.300 Schülerinnen und Schüler zur Verfügung stellen. Mittels dieser Paneldaten wird für Jugendliche der Deutschschweiz gezeigt, dass der sozioökonomische Status des Elternhauses, das damit einhergehende Motiv des intergenerationalen Statuserhalts sowie der Lebenslaufplanungen wichtige Beiträge zur Erklärung der Segregation der Berufswahl nach Geschlecht liefern. Diese mit dem Sozialstatus des Elternhauses verbundenen Mechanismen sind weitaus einflussreicher als die geschlechtsspezifische Sozialisation.

Qualifikationsnachfrage und Arbeitsmarkteintritt in der Schweiz: Arbeit im erlernten Beruf, Berufswechsel oder Arbeitslosigkeit

Berufsorientierte Bildungssysteme sind auf die Vermittlung von spezialisierten beruflichen Qualifikationen ausgelegt. Werden diese nach Abschluss einer beruflichen Grundbildung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wenig nachgefragt, riskieren die Absolventen, die erworbenen berufsspezifischen Qualifikationen nicht verwerten zu können. Dies trifft nicht nur zu, wenn Arbeitsmarkteinsteiger arbeitslos werden, sondern auch, wenn sie den Beruf wechseln müssen. Für die drei verschiedenen Optionen des Arbeitsmarkteinstiegs – Arbeit im erlernten Beruf, Berufswechsel und Arbeitslosigkeit – wird erstens untersucht, welche Bedeutung das individuell passende und das fachfremde Stellenangebot hat. Zweitens wird analysiert, wie eine unterschiedlich ausgeprägte Nachfrage nach fachspezifischen Qualifikationen die Bedeutung ausbildungsbezogener und individueller Merkmale für den Berufseinstieg verändert. Die Schweiz mit ihrem berufsorientierten Bildungssystem und berufsfachlich segmentieren Arbeitsmarkt dient als empirische Referenz. Die multinominalen logistischen Regressionsmodelle basieren auf den Daten des Schweizer Jugendpanels PISA2000/TREE. Die Individualdaten von Lehrabgänger werden auf Berufsebene, zeitpunkt- und regionsspezifisch mit dem individuell passenden und fachfremden Stellenangebot verknüpft, das auf den Stelleninseratendaten des Stellenmarktmonitors Schweiz (SMM) beruht. Dank dieser Verknüpfung von Angebot und Nachfrage nach beruflichen Qualifikationen auf der Mikroebene kann zum ersten Mal die grundlegende Bedeutung der Personalnachfrage für den Berufseinstieg nachgewiesen werden.

Property Condition Disclosure Law: Does 'Seller Tell All' Matter in Property Values?

At the time when at least two-thirds of the US states have already mandated some form of seller's property condition disclosure statement and there is a movement in this direction nationally, this paper examines the impact of seller's property condition disclosure law on the residential real estate values, the information asymmetry in housing transactions and shift of risk from buyers and brokers to the sellers, and attempts to ascertain the factors that lead to adoption of the disclosur law. The analytical structure employs parametric panel data models, semi-parametric propensity score matching models, and an event study framework using a unique set of economic and institutional attributes for a quarterly panel of 291 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and 50 US States spanning 21 years from 1984 to 2004. Exploiting the MSA level variation in house prices, the study finds that the average seller may be able to fetch a higher price (about three to four percent) for the house if she furnishes a state-mandated seller's property condition disclosure statement to the buyer.

Heat flow values in the Sea of Okhotsk region

Tectonic structure and anomalous distributions of geophysical fields of the Sea of Okhotsk region are considered; the lack of reliable data on age of the lithosphere beneath basins of various origin in the Sea of Okhotsk is noted. Model calculations based on geological and geophysical data yielded 65 Ma (Cretaceous-Paleocene boundary) age for the Central Okhotsk rise underlain by the continental lithosphere. This estimate agrees with the age (the end of Cretaceous) derived from seismostratigraphic data. A comparative analysis of theoretical and measured heat flows in the Akademii Nauk Rise, underlain by the thinned continental crust, is performed. The analysis points to a higher (by 20%) value of the measured thermal background of the rise, which is consistent with high negative gradient of gravity anomalies in this area. Calculations yielded 36 Ma (Early Oligocene) age and lithosphere thickness of 50 km for the South Okhotsk depression, whose seafloor was formed by processes of back-arc spreading. The estimated age of the depression is supported by kinematic data on the region; the calculated thickness of the lithosphere coincides with the value estimated from data of magnetotelluric sounding here. This indicates that formation time (36 Ma) of the South Okhotsk depression was estimated correctly. Numerical modeling performed for determination of the basement age of rifting basins in the Sea of Okhotsk gave the following estimates: 18 Ma (Early Miocene) for the Deryugin Basin, 12 Ma (Middle Miocene) for the TINRO Basin, and 23 Ma (Late Oligocene) for the West Kamchatka Trough. These estimates agree with formation time (Oligocene-Quaternary) of the sedimentary cover in rifting basins of the Sea of Okhotsk derived from geological and geophysical data. Model temperature estimates are obtained for lithologic and stratigraphic boundaries of the sedimentary cover in the Deryugin and TINRO Basins and the West Kamchatka Trough; the temperature analysis indicates that the latter two structures are promising for oil and hydrocarbon gas generation; the West Kamchatka Trough possesses better reservoir properties compared to the TINRO and Deryugin Basins. The latter is promising for generation of hydrocarbon gas. Paleogeodynamic reconstructions of the Sea of Okhotsk region evolution are obtained for times of 90, 66, and 36 Ma on the base of kinematic, geomagnetic, structural, tectonic, geothermal, and other geological and geophysical data.

Global compilation of last glacial maximum oxygen isotopic ratios for planktonic and benthic foraminifera

We use the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM to simulate the climate and oxygen stable isotopic signal during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 yr). By using a model that is able to explicitly simulate the sensor (d18O), results can be directly compared with data from climatic archives in the different realms. Our results indicate that iLOVECLIM reproduces well the main feature of the LGM climate in the atmospheric and oceanic components. The annual mean d18O in precipitation shows more depleted values in the northern and southern high latitudes during the LGM. The model reproduces very well the spatial gradient observed in ice core records over the Greenland ice-sheet. We observe a general pattern toward more enriched values for continental calcite d18O in the model at the LGM, in agreement with speleothem data. This can be explained by both a general atmospheric cooling in the tropical and subtropical regions and a reduction in precipitation as confirmed by reconstruction derived from pollens and plant macrofossils. Data-model comparison for sea surface temperature indicates that iLOVECLIM is capable to satisfyingly simulate the change in oceanic surface conditions between the LGM and present. Our data-model comparison for calcite d18O allows investigating the large discrepancies with respect to glacial temperatures recorded by different microfossil proxies in the North Atlantic region. The results argue for a trong mean annual cooling between the LGM and present (>6°C), supporting the foraminifera transfer function reconstruction but in disagreement with alkenones and dinocyst reconstructions. The data-model comparison also reveals that large positive calcite d18O anomaly in the Southern Ocean may be explained by an important cooling, although the driver of this pattern is unclear. We deduce a large positive d18Osw anomaly for the north Indian Ocean that contrasts with a large negative d18Osw anomaly in the China Sea between the LGM and present. This pattern may be linked to changes in the hydrological cycle over these regions. Our simulation of the deep ocean suggests that changes in d18Osw between the LGM and present are not spatially homogenous. This is supported by reconstructions derived from pore fluids in deep-sea sediments. The model underestimates the deep ocean cooling thus biasing the comparison with benthic calcite d18O data. Nonetheless, our data-model comparison support a heterogeneous cooling of few degrees (2-4°C) in the LGM Ocean.

Human Capital Investment and Poverty Reduction over Generations: A Case from the Rural Philippines, 1979-2003

This paper attempts to identify a pathway out of poverty over generations in the rural Philippines, based on long-term panel data spanning for nearly a quarter of a century. Specifically, it sequentially examines the determinants of schooling, subsequent occupational choices, and current non-farm earnings for the same individuals. We found that an initial rise in parental income, brought about by the land reform and the Green Revolution, among other things, improves the schooling of children, which later allows them to obtain remunerative non-farm jobs. These results suggest that the increased agricultural income, improved human capital through schooling and the development of non-farm sectors are the keys to reducing poverty in the long run. It must be also pointed out that the recent development of the rural non-farm sector offers ample employment opportunities for the less educated, which also significantly contributed to the poverty reduction.

The Production Technology of Philippine Domestic Banks in the Pre-Asian Crisis Periods: Estimation of Cost Function in the 1990-96 Period

This is to analyzes the operational behavior and technical progress among Philippine domestic banks, using micro-level data on individual banks. First, we summarize their major business activities and gain insight on how the structure is changing. Then, we formally estimate the cost function of Philippine domestic banks using panel data covering a seven-year period (1990-96). The presence of economies of scale and economies of scope is investigated and technical progress in the banking industry is measured. In addition, the results of analysis for the Philippines are compared with those of similar studies on Thailand conducted by the author previously.