977 resultados para PREDICTOR


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Actinic keratosis (AK) is the most common skin lesion with malignant potential, and one of the main reasons for consulting a dermatologist. Found predominantly on sun-exposed body sites in fairskinned, older and male subjects, AK is among the strongest predictors of skin cancer, and a precursor of SCC. However, estimates of prevalence and study of determinants of AK are relatively scarce and generally based on small, hospital-based series. Clinical suspicion of AK is a reliable predictor of diagnosis. The presence of AK is documented by dermatologists during the Euromelanoma screening examinations so that the Euromelanoma database probably constitutes the largest series of AK cases worldwide. This study aimed at (1) describing the prevalence and risk pattern of AK among Euromelanoma screenees during the 2009-2013 time period, and (2) identifying determinants of AK by means of multivariate analysis. In particular, the contribution of host characteristics, sun exposure and sunrelated behaviour to the risk of AK was explored. Results will be discussed in the light of this large, self-selected, Pan-European series.

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Aortic stiffness is an independent predictor factor for cardiovascular risk. Different methods for determining pulse wave velocity (PWV) are used, among which the most common are mechanical methods such as SphygmoCor or Complior, which require specific devices and are limited by technical difficulty in obtaining measurements. Doppler guided by 2D ultrasound is a good alternative to these methods. We studied 40 patients (29 male, aged 21 to 82 years) comparing the Complior method with Doppler. Agreement of both devices was high (R = 0.91, 0.84-0.95, 95% CI). The reproducibility analysis revealed no intra-nor interobserver differences. Based on these results, we conclude that Doppler ultrasound is a reliable and reproducible alternative to other established methods for themeasurement of aortic PWV

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Background: Excessive exposure to solar Ultra-Violet (UV) light is the main cause of most skin cancers in humans. Factors such as the increase of solar irradiation at ground level (anthropic pollution), the rise in standard of living (vacation in sunny areas), and (mostly) the development of outdoor activities have contributed to increase exposure. Thus, unsurprisingly, incidence of skin cancers has increased over the last decades more than that of any other cancer. Melanoma is the most lethal cutaneous cancer, while cutaneous carcinomas are the most common cancer type worldwide. UV exposure depends on environmental as well as individual factors related to activity. The influence of individual factors on exposure among building workers was investigated in a previous study. Posture and orientation were found to account for at least 38% of the total variance of relative individual exposure. A high variance of short-term exposure was observed between different body locations, indicating the occurrence of intense, subacute exposures. It was also found that effective short-term exposure ranged between 0 and 200% of ambient irradiation, suggesting that ambient irradiation is a poor predictor of effective exposure. Various dosimetric techniques enable to assess individual effective exposure, but dosimetric measurements remain tedious and tend to be situation-specific. As a matter of facts, individual factors (exposure time, body posture and orientation in the sun) often limit the extrapolation of exposure results to similar activities conducted in other conditions. Objective: The research presented in this paper aims at developing and validating a predictive tool of effective individual exposure to solar UV. Methods: Existing computer graphic techniques (3D rendering) were adapted to reflect solar exposure conditions and calculate short-term anatomical doses. A numerical model, represented as a 3D triangular mesh, is used to represent the exposed body. The amount of solar energy received by each "triangle is calculated, taking into account irradiation intensity, incidence angle and possible shadowing from other body parts. The model take into account the three components of the solar irradiation (direct, diffuse and albedo) as well as the orientation and posture of the body. Field measurements were carried out using a forensic mannequin at the Payerne MeteoSwiss station. Short-term dosimetric measurements were performed in 7 anatomical locations for 5 body postures. Field results were compared to the model prediction obtained from the numerical model. Results: The best match between prediction and measurements was obtained for upper body parts such as shoulders (Ratio Modelled/Measured; Mean = 1.21, SD = 0.34) and neck (Mean = 0.81, SD = 0.32). Small curved body parts such as forehead (Mean = 6.48, SD = 9.61) exhibited a lower matching. The prediction is less accurate for complex postures such as kneeling (Mean = 4.13, SD = 8.38) compared to standing up (Mean = 0.85, SD = 0.48). The values obtained from the dosimeters and the ones computed from the model are globally consistent. Conclusion: Although further development and validation are required, these results suggest that effective exposure could be predicted for a given activity (work or leisure) in various ambient irradiation conditions. Using a generic modelling approach is of high interest in terms of implementation costs as well as predictive and retrospective capabilities.

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Introducció. Les concentracions plasmàtiques dels pèptids natriürètics són biomarcadors útils en el diagnòstic i en el maneig de la insuficiència cardíaca (IC). L’objectiu de l’estudi va consistir en avaluar un nou biomarcador, la vasopressina, per predir la mortalitat i el reingrés a mig termini dels pacients que ingressen per IC aguda. Mètodes. Des del novembre de 2004 fins setembre de 2010 s’estudien de forma prospectiva el pacients que ingressen al Servei de Cardiologia per IC aguda i es distribueixen en dos grups: grup 1, pacients amb nivells baixos de vasopressina ( ≤ 2’9 pg/mL) i grup 2, pacients amb nivells alts de vasopressina (  2’9 pg/mL). Es realitza una anàlisi multivariada de Cox i es construeixen corbes de Kaplan-Meier. Resultats. S’inclouen 322 pacients, amb una mediana de seguiment de 14,6 mesos. Els pacients del grup 1 presenten una major supervivència als 12 i 24 mesos del 93% i 72% respecte els pacients del grup 2 que és del 75% i 61% amb una HR 2.90 (IC 95%: 1.47-5.75, p=0.002), respectivament. Tanmateix s’aprecia una major supervivència cardiovascular en els pacients del grup 1 (97% vs. 87% al 12 mesos i de 87% vs. 75% als 24 mesos) amb HR 2.72 (IC 95%: 1.97 – 6.73, p&0.031). Un 56% i 29% dels pacients del grup 1 estaven lliures de reingrés als 12 i 24 mesos, respectivament, versus el 49% i el 21% del grup 2 amb una HR 1.48 (IC 95%: 1.04 – 2.11, p&0.02). Igualment pel primer reingrés per IC , el 71% i 46% del grup 1 respecte del 60% i 39% del grup 2 als 12 i 24 mesos, respectivament (HR 1.57 (IC 95%: 1.03 – 2.41, p&0.038). Conclusions. Els nivells alts de vasopressina en pacients amb insuficiència cardíaca aguda estabilitzats són un predictor independent de mortalitat i de reingressos als 12 i 24 mesos de seguiment.

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Infliximab es un anticuerpo monoclonal efectivo en la psoriasis. Métodos: Estudio retrospectivo de 56 pacientes tratados con infliximab. Resultados: El 82% y 91,1% de los pacientes alcanzaron respuestas PASI 75 en la semana 12 y al año.La probabilidad de supervivencia global del tratamiento fue de 40% a los 4 años. Conclusiones: Infliximab ha demostrado ser efectivo y seguro a corto y largo plazo. La intensificación fue el predictor positivo más importante de aumento de supervivencia del tratamiento, seguido por el tratamiento combinado. El factor predictor negativo de supervivencia más importante parece ser el fracaso previo a otros anti-TNF.

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Data on new predictors of outcome include penumbra core or collaterals.Objective: To test the predictive value of recanalization, collaterals, penumbra and core of ischemia for functional outcome in a large group of patients with MCA occlusion. Method: Consecutive events included prospectively in the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne from April 2002 to April 2009 with an acute stroke due to proximal MCA occlusion (M1) were considered for analysis. Acute CTA were reviewed to grade the collaterals (dichotomized in poor __50% or good _50% compared to the normal side) and localization of M1 occlusion (proximal or mid-distal). Acute CTP were reviewed and reconstructed to determine penumbra, core and stroke index (penumbra/penumbra_core) of brain ischemia. Good outcome was defined by mRS 0-2 at 3 months.Results: Among 242 events (115 male, mean NIHSS 18.1, SD 5.8, mean age 66, SD 15), 42% were treated with intravenous thrombolysis, and 3% with intraarterial thrombolysis. Collateral status was rated as poor in 53% of events and proximal M1 occlusion was present in 64%. Recanalization determined at 24 hours with CTA was complete in 26% events and partial/absent in 54%.CTP was available for 212 events. Mean penumbra was 88.6 cm3 (median 84.4, SD 53.8), mean core was 54.1 cm3 (median 46.2, SD 45.7) and stroke index was 64% (median 68%, SD 25%). Good outcome was observed in 87 events (36%) and was associated in multivariate logistic regression with thrombolysis (p_0.02, OR_2.5, 95% CI 1.2-5.4), recanalization (p_0.001, OR_4.1, 95% CI 1.9-8.9), lower NIHSS (p_0.001, OR_0.84, 95% CI 0.78-0.91), male gender (p_0.01, OR_2.8, 95% CI 1.3-5.9), mRS prior to stroke (p_0.02, OR_0.5, 95% CI 0.28-0.9) and good collateral status (p_0.005, OR_3, 95% CI 1.4-6.4). Nor penumbra, nor core, nor stroke index were significant in the multivariate model, even if an association was present in the univariate model between good functional outcome and penumbra (p_0.004, OR_1.008, 95% CI 1.003-1.01), core (p_0.001, OR_0.98, 95% CI 0.976-0.99) and strokeindex (p_0.001, OR_16.7, 95% CI 4.6 59.9).Conclusion: MCA recanalization is the best predictor for good functional outcome, followed by collateral status. CTP data did not predict the functional outcome in our large group of M1 occlusion. Author Disclosures: C. Odier: None. P. Michel: Research Grant; Significant; Paion, Lundbeck. Speakers; Modest; Boehringer-Ingelheim. Consultant/Advisory Board; Modest; Boehringer- Ingelheim. Consultant/Advisory Board; Significant; Servier, Lundbeck.

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An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.

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Several cross-sectional studies have shown the ability of the TBS to discriminate between those with and without fractures in European populations. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of TBS to discriminate between those with and without fractures in a large female Caucasian population in the USA. This was a case-control study of 2,165 Caucasian American women aged 40 and older. Patients with illness or taking medications known to affect bone metabolism were excluded. Those in the fracture group (n = 289) had at least one low-energy fracture. BMD was measured at L1-L4, TBS calculated directly from the same DXA image. Descriptive statistics and inferential tests for difference were used. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were created to investigate possible association between independent variables and the status of fracture. Odds ratios per standard deviation decrease (OR) and areas under the ROC curve were calculated for discriminating parameters. Weak correlations were observed between TBS and BMD and between TBS and BMI (r = 0.33 and -0.17, respectively, p < 0.01). Mean age, weight, BMD and TBS were significantly different between control and fracture groups (all p ≤ 0.05), whereas no difference was noted for BMI or height. After adjusting for age, weight, BMD, smoking, and maternal and family history of fracture, TBS (but not BMD) remained a significant predictor of fracture: OR 1.28[1.13-1.46] even after adjustment. In a US female population, TBS again was able to discriminate between those with and those without fractures, even after adjusting for other clinical risk factors.

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BACKGROUND: Postanoxic status epilepticus (PSE) is considered a predictor of fatal outcome and therefore not intensively treated; however, some patients have had favorable outcomes. The aim of this study was to identify favorable predictors for awakening beyond vegetative state in PSE. METHODS: We studied six subjects treated with hypothermia improving beyond vegetative state after cerebral anoxia, despite PSE. They were among a cohort of patients treated for anoxic encephalopathy with therapeutic hypothermia in our institution between October 1999 and May 2006 (retrospectively, 3/107 patients) and June 2006 and May 2008 (prospectively, 3/74 patients). PSE was defined by clinical and EEG criteria. Outcome was assessed according to the Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). RESULTS: All improving patients had preserved brainstem reflexes, cortical somatosensory evoked potentials, and reactive EEG background during PSE. Half of them had myoclonic PSE, while three had nonconvulsive PSE. In the prospective arm, 3/28 patients with PSE showed this clinical-electrophysiologic profile; all awoke. Treatments consisted of benzodiazepines, various antiepileptic drugs, and propofol. One subject died of pneumonia in a minimally conscious state, one patient returned to baseline (CPC1), three had moderate impairment (CPC2), and one remained dependent (CPC3). Patients with nonconvulsive PSE showed a better prognosis than subjects with myoclonic PSE (p = 0.042). CONCLUSION: Patients with postanoxic status epilepticus and preserved brainstem reactions, somatosensory evoked potentials, and EEG reactivity may have a favorable outcome if their condition is treated as status epilepticus.

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PURPOSE: The diagnosis of microbial ureteral stent colonisation (MUSC) is difficult, since routine diagnostic techniques do not accurately detect microorganisms embedded in biofilms. New methods may improve diagnostic yield and understanding the pathophysiology of MUSC. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the potential of sonication in the detection of MUSC and to identify risk factors for device colonisation. METHODS: Four hundred and eight polyurethane ureteral stents of 300 consecutive patients were prospectively evaluated. Conventional urine culture (CUC) was obtained prior to stent placement and device removal. Sonication was performed to dislodge adherent microorganisms. Data of patient sex and age, indwelling time and indication for stent placement were recorded. RESULTS: Sonicate-fluid culture detected MUSC in 36%. Ureteral stents inserted during urinary tract infection (UTI) were more frequently colonised (59%) compared to those placed in sterile urine (26%; P < 0.001). Female sex (P < 0.001) and continuous stenting (P < 0.005) were significant risk factors for MUSC; a similar trend was observed in patients older than 50 years (P = 0.16). MUSC and indwelling time were positively correlated (P < 0.005). MUSC was accompanied by positive CUC in 36%. Most commonly isolated microorganisms were Coagulase-negative staphylococci (18.3%), Enterococci (17.9%) and Enterobacteriaceae (16.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Sonication is a promising approach in the diagnosis of MUSC. Significant risk factors for MUSC are UTI at the time of stent insertion, female sex, continuous stenting and indwelling time. CUC is a poor predictor of MUSC. The clinical relevance of MUSC needs further evaluation to classify isolated microorganism properly as contaminants or pathogens.

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PURPOSE: Early-onset sepsis (EOS) is one of the main causes for the admission of newborns to the neonatal intensive care unit. However, traditional infection markers are poor diagnostic markers of EOS. Pancreatic stone protein (PSP) is a promising sepsis marker in adults. The aim of this study was to investigate whether determining PSP improves the diagnosis of EOS in comparison with other infection markers. METHODS: This was a prospective multicentre study involving 137 infants with a gestational age of >34 weeks who were admitted with suspected EOS. PSP, procalcitonin (PCT), soluble human triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (sTREM-1), macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured at admission. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed. RESULTS: The level of PSP in infected infants was significantly higher than that in uninfected ones (median 11.3 vs. 7.5 ng/ml, respectively; p = 0.001). The ROC area under the curve was 0.69 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.59-0.80; p < 0.001] for PSP, 0.77 (95 % CI 0.66-0.87; p < 0.001) for PCT, 0.66 (95 % CI 0.55-0.77; p = 0.006) for CRP, 0.62 (0.51-0.73; p = 0.055) for sTREM-1 and 0.54 (0.41-0.67; p = 0.54) for MIF. PSP independently of PCT predicted EOS (p < 0.001), and the use of both markers concomitantly significantly increased the ability to diagnose EOS. A bioscore combining PSP (>9 ng/ml) and PCT (>2 ng/ml) was the best predictor of EOS (0.83; 95 % CI 0.74-0.93; p < 0.001) and resulted in a negative predictive value of 100 % and a positive predictive value of 71 %. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective study, the diagnostic performance of PSP and PCT was superior to that of traditional markers and a combination bioscore improved the diagnosis of sepsis. Our findings suggest that PSP is a valuable biomarker in combination with PCT in EOS.

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In the present review, microvascular remodelling refers to alterations in the structure of resistance vessels contributing to elevated systemic vascular resistance in hypertension. We start with some historical aspects, underscoring the importance of Folkow's contribution made half a century ago. We then move to some basic concepts on the biomechanics of blood vessels, and explicit the definitions proposed by Mulvany for specific forms of remodelling, especially inward eutrophic and inward hypertrophic. The available evidence for the existence of remodelled resistance vessels in hypertension comes next, with relatively more weight given to human, in comparison with animal data. Mechanisms are discussed. The impact of antihypertensive drug treatment on remodelling is described, again with emphasis on human data. Some details are given on the three studies to date which point to remodelling of subcutaneous resistance arteries as an independent predictor of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients. We terminate by considering the potential role of remodelling in the pathogenesis of end-organ damage and in the perpetuation of hypertension.

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BACKGROUND: Surgeons' personalities have been described as different from those of the general population, but this was based on small descriptive studies limited by the choice of evaluation instrument. Furthermore, although the importance of the human factor in team performance has been recognized, the effect of personality traits on technical performance is unknown. This study aimed to compare surgical residents' personality traits with those of the general population and to evaluate whether an association exists between their personality traits and technical performance using a virtual reality (VR) laparoscopy simulator. METHODS: In this study, 95 participants (54 residents with basic, 29 with intermediate laparoscopic experience, and 12 students) underwent personality assessment using the NEO-Five Factor Inventory and performed five VR tasks of the Lap Mentor? basic tasks module. The residents' personality traits were compared with those of the general population, and the association between VR performance and personality traits was investigated. RESULTS: Surgical residents showed personality traits different from those of the general population, demonstrating lower neuroticism, higher extraversion and conscientiousness, and male residents showed greater openness. In the multivariable analysis, adjusted for gender and surgical experience, none of the personality traits was found to be an independent predictor of technical performance. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical residents present distinct personality traits that differ from those of the general population. These traits were not found to be associated with technical performance in a virtual environment. The traits may, however, play an important role in team performance, which in turn is highly relevant for optimal surgical performance.

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High-dose cefepime therapy is recommended for febrile neutropenia. Safety issues have been raised in a recent meta-analysis reporting an increased risk of mortality during cefepime therapy. Cefepime-related neurological toxicity has been associated with overdosing due to severe renal dysfunction. This study aimed to investigate the association between cefepime plasma concentrations and neurological toxicity in febrile neutropenic patients. Cefepime trough concentrations (by high-performance liquid chromatography) were retrospectively analyzed for 30 adult febrile neutropenic patients receiving the recommended high-dose regimen (6 g/day for a glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of >50 ml/min). The dose adjustment to renal function was evaluated by the ratio of the cefepime daily dose per 100 ml/min of glomerular filtration. The association between cefepime plasma concentrations and neurological toxicity was assessed on the basis of consistent neurological symptoms and/or signs (by NCI criteria). The median cefepime concentration was 8.7 mg/liter (range, 2.1 to 38 mg/liter) at a median of 4 days (range, 2 to 15 days) after the start of therapy. Neurological toxicity (altered mental status, hallucinations, or myoclonia) was attributed to cefepime in 6/30 (20%) patients (median GFR, 45 ml/min; range, 41 to 65 ml/min) receiving a median dose of 13.2 g/day per 100 ml/min GFR (range, 9.2 to 14.3 g/day per 100 ml/min GFR). Cefepime discontinuation resulted in complete neurological recovery for five patients and improvement for one patient. A multivariate logistic regression model confirmed high cefepime concentrations as an independent predictor of neurological toxicity, with a 50% probability threshold at ≥22 mg/liter (P = 0.05). High cefepime plasma concentrations are associated with neurological toxicity in febrile neutropenic patients with mild renal dysfunction. Careful adherence to normalized dosing per 100 ml/min GFR is crucial. Monitoring of plasma concentrations may contribute to preventing neurological toxicity of high-dose therapy for this life-threatening condition.

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OBJECTIVES: To assess the correlations between the hormone leptin and lipoatrophy in HIV-positive, treatment-naive patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN: Case-control study nested in a multicentre cohort of HIV-infected adults. Cases were patients that developed lipoatrophy and controls those who did not. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Clinical parameters and plasma leptin determinations were studied in 97 HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive Caucasian men (10 cases and 87 controls) on an unchanged and virologically successful drug regimen with a zidovudine/lamivudine backbone at baseline and after 2 years of cART. The association of plasma leptin levels and the development of lipoatrophy was investigated. RESULTS: Two years of cART was not associated with a change in plasma leptin levels. Plasma leptin levels remained sensible to changes in body mass index. There was no difference in leptin levels between patients who developed lipoatrophy and controls, neither before nor after cART. The only predictor of development of lipoatrophy was a higher age (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Leptin as measured in plasma is unlikely to play a major role in the genesis of lipoatrophy.