Predicting 3-year mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: updated logistic clinical SYNTAX score based on patient-level data from 7 contemporary stent trials

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to update the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score to predict 3-year survival after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and compare the performance with the SYNTAX score alone. BACKGROUND The SYNTAX score is a well-established angiographic tool to predict long-term outcomes after PCI. The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, developed by combining clinical variables with the anatomic SYNTAX score, has been shown to perform better than the SYNTAX score alone in predicting 1-year outcomes after PCI. However, the ability of this score to predict long-term survival is unknown. METHODS Patient-level data (N = 6,304, 399 deaths within 3 years) from 7 contemporary PCI trials were analyzed. We revised the overall risk and the predictor effects in the core model (SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction) using Cox regression analysis to predict mortality at 3 years. We also updated the extended model by combining the core model with additional independent predictors of 3-year mortality (i.e., diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, and body mass index). RESULTS The revised Logistic Clinical SYNTAX models showed better discriminative ability than the anatomic SYNTAX score for the prediction of 3-year mortality after PCI (c-index: SYNTAX score, 0.61; core model, 0.71; and extended model, 0.73 in a cross-validation procedure). The extended model in particular performed better in differentiating low- and intermediate-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS Risk scores combining clinical characteristics with the anatomic SYNTAX score substantially better predict 3-year mortality than the SYNTAX score alone and should be used for long-term risk stratification of patients undergoing PCI.

Risk of falls and bleeding in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism.

OBJECTIVE Whether or not a high risk of falls increases the risk of bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulants remains a matter of debate. METHODS We conducted a prospective cohort study involving 991 patients ≥ 65 years of age who received anticoagulants for acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) at nine Swiss hospitals between September 2009 and September 2012. The study outcomes were as follows: the time to a first major episode of bleeding; and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding. We determined the associations between the risk of falls and the time to a first episode of bleeding using competing risk regression, accounting for death as a competing event. We adjusted for known bleeding risk factors and anticoagulation as a time-varying covariate. RESULTS Four hundred fifty-eight of 991 patients (46%) were at high risk of falls. The mean duration of follow-up was 16.7 months. Patients at high risk of falls had a higher incidence of major bleeding (9.6 vs. 6.6 events/100 patient-years; P = 0.05) and a significantly higher incidence of clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding (16.7 vs. 8.3 events/100 patient-years; P < 0.001) than patients at low risk of falls. After adjustment, a high risk of falls was associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding [subhazard ratio (SHR) = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.23-2.46], but not with major bleeding (SHR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.83-1.86). CONCLUSION In elderly patients who receive anticoagulants because of VTE, a high risk of falls is significantly associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding, but not with major bleeding. Whether or not a high risk of falls is a reason against providing anticoagulation beyond 3 months should be based on patient preferences and the risk of VTE recurrence.

Role of electrophysiological studies in predicting risk of ventricular arrhythmia in early repolarization syndrome.

BACKGROUND The early repolarization (ER) pattern is associated with an increased risk of arrhythmogenic sudden death. However, strategies for risk stratification of patients with the ER pattern are not fully defined. OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine the role of electrophysiology studies (EPS) in risk stratification of patients with ER syndrome. METHODS In a multicenter study, 81 patients with ER syndrome (age 36 ± 13 years, 60 males) and aborted sudden death due to ventricular fibrillation (VF) were included. EPS were performed following the index VF episode using a standard protocol. Inducibility was defined by the provocation of sustained VF. Patients were followed up by serial implantable cardioverter-defibrillator interrogations. RESULTS Despite a recent history of aborted sudden death, VF was inducible in only 18 of 81 (22%) patients. During follow-up of 7.0 ± 4.9 years, 6 of 18 (33%) patients with inducible VF during EPS experienced VF recurrences, whereas 21 of 63 (33%) patients who were noninducible experienced recurrent VF (p = 0.93). VF storm occurred in 3 patients from the inducible VF group and in 4 patients in the noninducible group. VF inducibility was not associated with maximum J-wave amplitude (VF inducible vs. VF noninducible; 0.23 ± 0.11 mV vs. 0.21 ± 0.11 mV; p = 0.42) or J-wave distribution (inferior, odds ratio [OR]: 0.96 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.33 to 2.81]; p = 0.95; lateral, OR: 1.57 [95% CI: 0.35 to 7.04]; p = 0.56; inferior and lateral, OR: 0.83 [95% CI: 0.27 to 2.55]; p = 0.74), which have previously been demonstrated to predict outcome in patients with an ER pattern. CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that current programmed stimulation protocols do not enhance risk stratification in ER syndrome.

Surgical hip dislocation for treatment of femoroacetabular impingement: factors predicting 5-year survivorship.

BACKGROUND Patients with femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) often develop pain, impaired function, and progression of osteoarthritis (OA); this is commonly treated using surgical hip dislocation, femoral neck and acetabular rim osteoplasty, and labral reattachment. However, results with these approaches, in particular risk factors for OA progression and conversion to THA, have varied. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES We asked if patients undergoing surgical hip dislocation with labral reattachment to treat FAI experienced (1) improved hip pain and function; and (2) prevention of OA progression; we then determined (3) the survival of the hip at 5-year followup with the end points defined as the need for conversion to THA, progression of OA by at least one Tönnis grade, and/or a Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score less than 15; and calculated (4) factors predicting these end points. METHODS Between July 2001 and March 2003, we performed 146 of these procedures in 121 patients. After excluding 35 patients (37 hips) who had prior open surgery and 11 patients (12 hips) who had a diagnosis of Perthes disease, this study evaluated the 75 patients (97 hips, 66% of the procedures we performed during that time) who had a mean followup of 6 years (range, 5-7 years). We used the anterior impingement test to assess pain, the Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score to assess function, and the Tönnis grade to assess OA. Survival and predictive factors were calculated using the method of Kaplan and Meier and Cox regression, respectively. RESULTS The proportion of patients with anterior impingement decreased from 95% to 17% (p < 0.001); the Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score improved from a mean of 15 to 17 (p < 0.001). Seven hips (7%) showed progression of OA and another seven hips (7%) converted to THA Survival free from any end point (THA, progression of OA, or a Merle d'Aubigné-Postel < 15) of well-functioning joints at 5 years was 91%; and excessive acetabular rim trimming, preoperative OA, increased age at operation, and weight were predictive factors for the end points. CONCLUSIONS At 5-year followup, 91% of patients with FAI treated with surgical hip dislocation, osteoplasty, and labral reattachment showed no THA, progression of OA, or an insufficient clinical result, but excessive acetabular trimming, OA, increased age, and weight were associated with early failure. To prevent early deterioration of the joint, excessive rim trimming or trimming of borderline dysplastic hips has to be avoided.

Predicting prostate cancer-specific outcome after radical prostatectomy among men with very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa: a multi-institutional outcome study of 266 patients

BACKGROUND The value of radical prostatectomy (RP) as an approach for very high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients is controversial. To examine the risk of 10-year cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and other-cause mortality (OCM) according to clinical and pathological characteristics of very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa patients treated with RP as the primary treatment option. METHODS In a multi-institutional cohort, 266 patients with very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa treated with RP were identified. All patients underwent RP and pelvic lymph-node dissection. Competing-risk analyses assessed 10-year CSM and OCM before and after stratification for age and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). RESULTS Overall, 34 (13%) patients died from PCa and 73 (28%) from OCM. Ten-year CSM and OCM rates ranged from 5.6% to 12.9% and from 10% to 38%, respectively. OCM was the leading cause of death in all subgroups. Age and comorbidities were the main determinants of OCM. In healthy men, CSM rate did not differ among age groups (10-year CSM rate for ⩽64, 65-69 and ⩾70 years: 16.2%, 11.5% and 17.1%, respectively). Men with a CCI ⩾1 showed a very low risk of CSM irrespective of age (10-year CSM: 5.6-6.1%), whereas the 10-year OCM rates increased with age up to 38% in men ⩾70 years. CONCLUSION Very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa represents a heterogeneous group. We revealed overall low CSM rates despite the highly unfavorable clinical disease. For healthy men, CSM was independent of age, supporting RP even for older men. Conversely, less healthy patients had the highest risk of dying from OCM while sharing very low risk of CSM, indicating that this group might not benefit from an aggressive surgical treatment. Outcome after RP as the primary treatment option in cT3b/4 PCa patients is related to age and comorbidity status.

Pretreatment Tables Predicting Pathologic Stage of Locally Advanced Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND Pretreatment tables for the prediction of pathologic stage have been published and validated for localized prostate cancer (PCa). No such tables are available for locally advanced (cT3a) PCa. OBJECTIVE To construct tables predicting pathologic outcome after radical prostatectomy (RP) for patients with cT3a PCa with the aim to help guide treatment decisions in clinical practice. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study including 759 consecutive patients with cT3a PCa treated with RP between 1987 and 2010. INTERVENTION Retropubic RP and pelvic lymphadenectomy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Patients were divided into pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and biopsy Gleason score (GS) subgroups. These parameters were used to construct tables predicting pathologic outcome and the presence of positive lymph nodes (LNs) after RP for cT3a PCa using ordinal logistic regression. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS In the model predicting pathologic outcome, the main effects of biopsy GS and pretreatment PSA were significant. A higher GS and/or higher PSA level was associated with a more unfavorable pathologic outcome. The validation procedure, using a repeated split-sample method, showed good predictive ability. Regression analysis also showed an increasing probability of positive LNs with increasing PSA levels and/or higher GS. Limitations of the study are the retrospective design and the long study period. CONCLUSIONS These novel tables predict pathologic stage after RP for patients with cT3a PCa based on pretreatment PSA level and biopsy GS. They can be used to guide decision making in men with locally advanced PCa. PATIENT SUMMARY Our study might provide physicians with a useful tool to predict pathologic stage in locally advanced prostate cancer that might help select patients who may need multimodal treatment.

Visible near infra-red (VisNIR) spectroscopy for predicting soil organic carbon in Ethiopia

Over the past few decades, the advantages of the visible-near infra-red (VisNIR) diffuse reflectance spectrometer (DRS) method have enabled prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC). In this study, SOC was predicted using regression models for samples taken from three sites (Gununo, Maybar and Anjeni) in Ethiopia. SOC was characterized in laboratory using conventional wet chemistry and VisNIR-DRS methods. Principal component analysis (PCA), principal component regression (PCR) and partial least square regression (PLS) models were developed using Unscrambler X 10.2. PCA results show that the first two components accounted for a minimum of 96% variation which increased for individual sites and with data treatments. Correlation (r), coefficient of determination (R2) and residual prediction deviation (RPD) were used to rate four models built. PLS model (r, R2, RPD) values for Anjeni were 0.9, 0.9 and 3.6; for Gununo values 0.6, 0.3 and 1.2; for Maybar values 0.6, 0.3 and 0.9, and for the three sites values 0.7, 0.6 and 1.5, respectively. PCR model values (r, R2, RPD) for Anjeni were 0.9, 0.8 and 2.7; for Gununo values 0.5, 0.3 and 1; for Maybar values 0.5, 0.1 and 0.7, and for the three sites values 0.7, 0.5 and 1.2, respectively. Comparison and testing of models shows superior performance of PLS to PCR. Models were rated as very poor (Maybar), poor (Gununo and three sites) and excellent (Anjeni). A robust model, Anjeni, is recommended for prediction of SOC in Ethiopia.

Predicting Physical Activity in Adolescents: The Role of Compensatory Health Beliefs within the Health Action Process Approach

Objective: Compensatory health beliefs (CHBs), defined as beliefs that healthy behaviours can compensate for unhealthy behaviours, may be one possible factor hindering people in adopting a healthier lifestyle. This study examined the contribution of CHBs to the prediction of adolescents’ physical activity within the theoretical framework of the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA). Design: The study followed a prospective survey design with assessments at baseline (T1) and two weeks later (T2). Method: Questionnaire data on physical activity, HAPA variables and CHBs were obtained twice from 430 adolescents of four different Swiss schools. Multilevel modelling was applied. Results: CHBs added significantly to the prediction of intentions and change in intentions, in that higher CHBs were associated with lower intentions to be physically active at T2 and a reduction in intentions from T1 to T2. No effect of CHBs emerged for the prediction of self-reported levels of physical activity at T2 and change in physical activity from T1 to T2. Conclusion: Findings emphasise the relevance of examining CHBs in the context of an established health behaviour change model and suggest that CHBs are of particular importance in the process of intention formation.

How minimal grade goals and self-control capacity interact in predicting test grades

The present research examined the prediction of school students' grades in an upcoming math test via their minimal grade goals (i.e., the minimum grade in an upcoming test one would be satisfied with). Due to its significance for initiating and maintaining goal-directed behavior, self-control capacity was expected to moderate the relation between students' minimal grade goals and their actual grades. Self-control capacity was defined as the dispositional capacity to override or alter one's dominant response tendencies. Prior to a scheduled math test, 172 vocational track students indicated their minimal grade goal for the test and completed a measure of self-control capacity. The test grade was assessed at a second time of measurement. As expected, minimal grade goals more strongly predicted the actual test grades the higher the students' self-control capacity. Implications can be seen in terms of optimizing the prediction and advancement of academic performance.

Predicting the "usefulness" of 5-ALA-derived tumor fluorescence for fluorescence-guided resections in pediatric brain tumors: a European survey.

BACKGROUND Five-aminolevulinic acid (Gliolan, medac, Wedel, Germany, 5-ALA) is approved for fluorescence-guided resections of adult malignant gliomas. Case reports indicate that 5-ALA can be used for children, yet no prospective study has been conducted as of yet. As a basis for a study, we conducted a survey among certified European Gliolan users to collect data on their experiences with children. METHODS Information on patient characteristics, MRI characteristics of tumors, histology, fluorescence qualities, and outcomes were requested. Surgeons were further asked to indicate whether fluorescence was "useful", i.e., leading to changes in surgical strategy or identification of residual tumor. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used for defining cohorts with high or low likelihoods for useful fluorescence. RESULTS Data on 78 patients <18 years of age were submitted by 20 centers. Fluorescence was found useful in 12 of 14 glioblastomas (85 %), four of five anaplastic astrocytomas (60 %), and eight of ten ependymomas grades II and III (80 %). Fluorescence was found inconsistently useful in PNETs (three of seven; 43 %), gangliogliomas (two of five; 40 %), medulloblastomas (two of eight, 25 %) and pilocytic astrocytomas (two of 13; 15 %). RPA of pre-operative factors showed tumors with supratentorial location, strong contrast enhancement and first operation to have a likelihood of useful fluorescence of 64.3 %, as opposed to infratentorial tumors with first surgery (23.1 %). CONCLUSIONS Our survey demonstrates 5-ALA as being used in pediatric brain tumors. 5-ALA may be especially useful for contrast-enhancing supratentorial tumors. These data indicate controlled studies to be necessary and also provide a basis for planning such a study.

Predicting Psychotherapy Dropouts: A Multilevel Approach

The role of therapeutic processes in predicting premature termination of psychotherapy has been a particular focus of recent research. The purpose of this study was to contrast outpatients who completed therapy and those who dropped out with respect to their self-reported in-session experiences of self-esteem, mastery, clarification and the therapeutic alliance. The 296 patients with mixed disorders were treated with an integrative form of cognitive–behavioural therapy without pre-determined time limit (M = 20.2 sessions). Multilevel analyses indicated that patients who did not completetreatment reported, on average, lower levels of self-esteem, mastery and clarification and lower ratings of their therapeutic alliance in treatment in contrast to patients who completed therapy. Patient-reported change in self-esteem experiences over the course of treatment turned out to be the strongest predictor of dropout from psychotherapy or successful completion. When dropout occurred before the average treatment length was reached, patients reported fewer clarifying experiences as early as the first session and their ratings of the therapeutic alliance were characterized by an absence of positive development. Both of these aspects seem to be involved in patients' decisions to leave treatment early. The findings underscore the importance of the therapeutic process in understanding the mechanisms behind treatment dropout. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The value of serial serum lactate measurements in predicting the extent of ischemic bowel and outcome of patients suffering acute mesenteric ischemia

BACKGROUND Acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) is an emergency with a mortality rate up to 50 %. Detecting AMI continues to be a major challenge. This study assed the correlation of repeated preoperative serum lactate with bowel necrosis and to identify risk factors for a lethal outcome in patients with AMI. METHODS A retrospective study of 91 patients with clinically and pathologically confirmed AMI from January 2006 to December 2012 was performed. RESULTS In-hospital mortality rate was 42.9 %. Two hundred nine preoperative lactate measurements were analyzed (2.3 ± 1.1 values per patient). Less than or equal to six hours prior to surgery, the mean serum lactate level was significantly higher (4.97 ± 4.21 vs. 3.24 ± 3.05 mmol/L, p = 0.006) and the mean pH significantly lower (7.28 ± 0.12 vs. 7.37 ± 0.08, p = 0.001) compared to >6 h before surgery. Thirty-four patients had at least two lactate measurements within 24 h prior to surgery. In this subgroup, 17 patients (50 %) exhibited an increase, 17 patients (50 %) a decrease in lactate levels. Forward logistic regression analysis showed that length of necrotic bowel and the highest lactate value 24 h prior to surgery were independent risk factors for mortality (r (2)  = 0.329). CONCLUSION The value of serial lactate and pH measurements to predict the length of necrotic bowel is very limited. Length of necrotic bowel and lactate values are independent risk factors for mortality.

Predicting dependencies using domain-based coupling

Software dependencies play a vital role in programme comprehension, change impact analysis and other software maintenance activities. Traditionally, these activities are supported by source code analysis; however, the source code is sometimes inaccessible or difficult to analyse, as in hybrid systems composed of source code in multiple languages using various paradigms (e.g. object-oriented programming and relational databases). Moreover, not all stakeholders have adequate knowledge to perform such analyses. For example, non-technical domain experts and consultants raise most maintenance requests; however, they cannot predict the cost and impact of the requested changes without the support of the developers. We propose a novel approach to predicting software dependencies by exploiting the coupling present in domain-level information. Our approach is independent of the software implementation; hence, it can be used to approximate architectural dependencies without access to the source code or the database. As such, it can be applied to hybrid systems with heterogeneous source code or legacy systems with missing source code. In addition, this approach is based solely on information visible and understandable to domain users; therefore, it can be efficiently used by domain experts without the support of software developers. We evaluate our approach with a case study on a large-scale enterprise system, in which we demonstrate how up to 65 of the source code dependencies and 77% of the database dependencies are predicted solely based on domain information.