Tőkeallokációs módszerek és tulajdonságaik a gyakorlatban (Methods of capital allocation and their characteristics in practice)

A pénzügyekben mind elméletileg, mind az alkalmazások szempontjából fontos kérdés a tőkeallokáció. Hogyan osszuk szét egy adott portfólió kockázatát annak alportfóliói között? Miként tartalékoljunk tőkét a fennálló kockázatok fedezetére, és a tartalékokat hogyan rendeljük az üzleti egységekhez? A tőkeallokáció vizsgálatára axiomatikus megközelítést alkalmazunk, tehát alapvető tulajdonságok megkövetelésével dolgozunk. Cikkünk kiindulópontja Csóka-Pintér [2010] azon eredménye, hogy a koherens kockázati mértékek axiómái, valamint a tőkeallokációra vonatkozó méltányossági, ösztönzési és stabilitási követelmények nincsenek összhangban egymással. Ebben a cikkben analitikus és szimulációs eszközökkel vizsgáljuk ezeket a követelményeket. A gyakorlati alkalmazások során használt, illetve az elméleti szempontból érdekes tőkeallokációs módszereket is elemezzük. A cikk fő következtetése, hogy a Csóka-Pintér [2010] által felvetett probléma gyakorlati szempontból is releváns, tehát az nemcsak az elméleti vizsgálatok során merül fel, hanem igen sokszor előforduló és gyakorlati probléma. A cikk további eredménye, hogy a vizsgált tőkeallokációs módszerek jellemzésével segítséget nyújt az alkalmazóknak a különböző módszerek közötti választáshoz. / === / Risk capital allocation in finance is important theoretically and also in practical applications. How can the risk of a portfolio be shared among its sub-portfolios? How should the capital reserves be set to cover risks, and how should the reserves be assigned to the business units? The study uses an axiomatic approach to analyse risk capital allocation, by working with requiring basic properties. The starting point is a 2010 study by Csoka and Pinter (2010), who showed that the axioms of coherent measures of risk are not compatible with some fairness, incentive compatibility and stability requirements of risk allocation. This paper discusses these requirements using analytical and simulation tools. It analyses methods used in practical applications that have theoretically interesting properties. The main conclusion is that the problems identified in Csoka and Pinter (2010) remain relevant in practical applications, so that it is not just a theoretical issue, it is a common practical problem. A further contribution is made because analysis of risk allocation methods helps practitioners choose among the different methods available.

Aid Allocation of the Emerging Central and Eastern European Donors

The paper examines the main characteristics of the (re)emerging foreign aid policies of the Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), concentrating on the allocation of their aid resources. We adopt an econometric approach, similar to the ones used in the literature for analyzing the aid allocation of the OECD DAC donors. Using this approach, we examine the various factors that influence aid allocation of the Visegrád countries, using data for the years between 2001 and 2008. Our most important conclusion is that the amount of aid a partner county gets from the four emerging donors is not influenced by the level of poverty or the previous performance (measured by the level of economic growth or the quality of institutions) of the recipients. The main determining factor seems to be geographic proximity, as countries in the Western-Balkans and the Post-Soviet region receive much more aid from the Visegrád countries than other recipients. Historical ties (pre-1989 development relations) and international obligations in the case of Afghanistan and Iraq are also found to be significant explanatory factors. This allocation is in line with the foreign political and economic interests of these new donors. While there are clear similarities between the four donors, the paper also identifies some individual country characteristics.

On the impossibility of fair risk allocation

Measuring and allocating risk properly are crucial for performance evaluation and internal capital allocation of portfolios held by banks, insurance companies, investment funds and other entities subject to financial risk. We show that by using a coherent measure of risk it is impossible to allocate risk satisfying the natural requirements of (Solution) Core Compatibility, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity. To obtain the result we characterize the Shapley value on the class of totally balanced games and also on the class of exact games.

Tőkeallokáció nem likvid portfóliók esetén (Risk capital allocation in case of illiquid portfolios)

A kockázat jó mérése és elosztása elengedhetetlen a bankok, biztosítók, befektetési alapok és egyéb pénzügyi vállalkozások belső tőkeallokációjához vagy teljesítményértékeléséhez. A cikkben bemutatjuk, hogy a koherens kockázati mértékek axiómáit nem likvid portfóliók esetén is el lehet várni. Így mérve a kockázatot, ismertetünk a kockázatelosztásra vonatkozó két kooperatív játékelméleti cikket. Az első optimista, eszerint mindig létezik stabil, az alegységek minden koalíciója által elfogadható, általános módszer a kockázat (tőke) elosztására. A második cikk pesszimista, mert azt mondja ki, hogy ha a stabilitás mellett igazságosak is szeretnénk lenni, akkor egy lehetetlenségi tételbe ütközünk. / === / Measuring and allocating risk properly are crucial for performance evaluation and internal capital allocation of portfolios held by banks, insurance companies, investment funds and other entities subject to fi nancial risk. We argue that the axioms of coherent measures of risk are valid for illiquid portfolios as well. Then, we present the results of two papers on allocating risk measured by a coherent measure of risk. Assume a bank has some divisions. According to the fi rst paper there is always a stable allocation of risk capital, which is not blocked by any coalition of the divisions, that is there is a core compatible allocation rule (we present some examples for risk allocation rules). The second paper considers two more natural requirements, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity. Equal Treatment Property makes sure that similar divisions are treated symmetrically, that is if two divisions make the same marginal risk contribution to all the coalition of divisions not containing them, then the rule should allocate them the very same risk capital. Strong Monotonicity requires that if the risk environment changes in such a way that the marginal contribution of a division is not decreasing, then its allocated risk capital should not decrease either. However, if risk is evaluated by any coherent measure of risk, then there is no risk allocation rule satisfying Core Compatibility, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity, we encounter an impossibility result.

Koherens kockázatmérés és tőkeallokáció = Coherent risk measurement and capital allocation

Bármennyire szeretne is egy bank (vállalat, biztosító) csak az üzletre koncentrálni, nem térhet ki a pénzügyi (hitel-, piaci, operációs, egyéb) kockázatok elől, amelyeket mérnie és fedeznie kell. A teljes fedezés vagy nagyon költséges, vagy nem is lehetséges, így a csőd elkerülésre minden gazdálkodó egységnek tartania kell valamennyi kockázatmentes, likvid tőkét. Koherens kockázatmérésre van szükség: az allokált tőkének tükröznie kell a kockázatokat - azonban még akkor is felmerül elosztási probléma, ha jól tudjuk mérni azokat. A diverzifikációs hatásoknak köszönhetően egy portfólió teljes kockázata általában kisebb, mint a portfóliót alkotó alportfóliók kockázatának összege. A koherens tőkeallokáció során azzal a kérdéssel kell foglalkoznunk, hogy mennyi tőkét osszunk az alportfóliókra, vagyis hogyan osszuk el „kor­rekt” módon a diverzifikáció előnyeit. Így megkapjuk az eszközök kockázathoz való hozzájárulását. A tanulmányban játékelmélet alkalmazásával, összetett opciós példákon keresztül bemutatjuk a kockázatok következetes mérését és felosztását, felhívjuk a figyelmet a következetlenségek veszélyeire, valamint megvizsgáljuk, hogy a gyakorlatban alkalmazott kockázatmérési módszerek [különösen a kockáztatott érték (VaR)] mennyire felelnek meg az elmélet által szabott követelményeknek. ____________________ However much a bank (or company or insurance provider) concentrates only on business, it cannot avoid financial (credit, market, operational or other) risks that need to be measured and covered. Total cover is either very expensive or not even possible, so that every business unit has to hold some risk-free liquid capital to avoid insolvency. What it needs is coherent risk measurement: the capital allocated has to match the risks, but even if the risks are measured well, distribution problems can still arise. Thanks to diversification effects, the total risk of a portfolio is less than the sum of the risks of its sub-portfolios. Coherent capital allocation entails addressing the question of how much capital to divide among the sub-portfolios, or how to distribute ‘correctly’ the advantages of diversification. This yields the contribution of the assets to the risk. The study employs game theory and examples of compound options to demonstrate coherent measurement and distribution of risks. Attention is drawn to the dangers of inconsistencies. The authors examine how far the methods of risk measurement applied in practice (notably VaR—value at risk) meet the requirements set in theory.

On the impossibility of fair risk allocation

Measuring and allocating risk properly are crucial for performance evaluation and internal capital allocation of portfolios held by banks, insurance companies, investment funds and other entities subject to financial risk. We show that by using coherent measures of risk it is impossible to allocate risk satisfying simultaneously the natural requirements of Core Compatibility, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity. To obtain the result we characterize the Shapley value on the class of totally balanced games and also on the class of exact games.

Properties of risk capital allocation methods: Core Compatibility, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity

In finance risk capital allocation raises important questions both from theoretical and practical points of view. How to share risk of a portfolio among its subportfolios? How to reserve capital in order to hedge existing risk and how to assign this to different business units? We use an axiomatic approach to examine risk capital allocation, that is we call for fundamental properties of the methods. Our starting point is Csóka and Pintér (2011) who show by generalizing Young (1985)'s axiomatization of the Shapley value that the requirements of Core Compatibility, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity are irreconcilable given that risk is quantified by a coherent measure of risk. In this paper we look at these requirements using analytic and simulations tools. We examine allocation methods used in practice and also ones which are theoretically interesting. Our main result is that the problem raised by Csóka and Pintér (2011) is indeed relevant in practical applications, that is it is not only a theoretical problem. We also believe that through the characterizations of the examined methods our paper can serve as a useful guide for practitioners.

The analytical determination of the uniqueness and persistence of the volatile components of human scent using optimized collection methods

The Locard exchange principle proposes that a person can not enter or leave an area or come in contact with an object, without an exchange of materials. In the case of scent evidence, the suspect leaves his scent in the location of the crime scene itself or on objects found therein. Human scent evidence collected from a crime scene can be evaluated through the use of specially trained canines to determine an association between the evidence and a suspect. To date, there has been limited research as to the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) which comprise human odor and their usefulness in distinguishing among individuals. For the purposes of this research, human scent is defined as the most abundant volatile organic compounds present in the headspace above collected odor samples. ^ An instrumental method has been created for the analysis of the VOCs present in human scent, and has been utilized for the optimization of materials used for the collection and storage of human scent evidence. This research project has identified the volatile organic compounds present in the headspace above collected scent samples from different individuals and various regions of the body, with the primary focus involving the armpit area and the palms of the hands. Human scent from the armpit area and palms of an individual sampled over time shows lower variation in the relative peak area ratio of the common compounds present than what is seen across a population. A comparison of the compounds present in human odor for an individual over time, and across a population has been conducted and demonstrates that it is possible to instrumentally differentiate individuals based on the volatile organic compounds above collected odor samples. ^

Resource allocation in multi-user telecommunication networks

This dissertation discussed resource allocation mechanisms in several network topologies including infrastructure wireless network, non-infrastructure wireless network and wire-cum-wireless network. Different networks may have different resource constrains. Based on actual technologies and implementation models, utility function, game theory and a modern control algorithm have been introduced to balance power, bandwidth and customers' satisfaction in the system. ^ In infrastructure wireless networks, utility function was used in the Third Generation (3G) cellular network and the network was trying to maximize the total utility. In this dissertation, revenue maximization was set as an objective. Compared with the previous work on utility maximization, it is more practical to implement revenue maximization by the cellular network operators. The pricing strategies were studied and the algorithms were given to find the optimal price combination of power and rate to maximize the profit without degrading the Quality of Service (QoS) performance. ^ In non-infrastructure wireless networks, power capacity is limited by the small size of the nodes. In such a network, nodes need to transmit traffic not only for themselves but also for their neighbors, so power management become the most important issue for the network overall performance. Our innovative routing algorithm based on utility function, sets up a flexible framework for different users with different concerns in the same network. This algorithm allows users to make trade offs between multiple resource parameters. Its flexibility makes it a suitable solution for the large scale non-infrastructure network. This dissertation also covers non-cooperation problems. Through combining game theory and utility function, equilibrium points could be found among rational users which can enhance the cooperation in the network. ^ Finally, a wire-cum-wireless network architecture was introduced. This network architecture can support multiple services over multiple networks with smart resource allocation methods. Although a SONET-to-WiMAX case was used for the analysis, the mathematic procedure and resource allocation scheme could be universal solutions for all infrastructure, non-infrastructure and combined networks. ^

The development of an optimized system of narcotic and explosive contraband mimics for calibration and training of biological detectors

Current commercially available mimics contain varying amounts of either the actual explosive/drug or the chemical compound of suspected interest by biological detectors. As a result, there is significant interest in determining the dominant chemical odor signatures of the mimics, often referred to as pseudos, particularly when compared to the genuine contraband material. This dissertation discusses results obtained from the analysis of drug and explosive headspace related to the odor profiles as recognized by trained detection canines. Analysis was performed through the use of headspace solid phase microextraction in conjunction with gas chromatography mass spectrometry (HS-SPME-GC-MS). Upon determination of specific odors, field trials were held using a combination of the target odors with COMPS. Piperonal was shown to be a dominant odor compound in the headspace of some ecstasy samples and a recognizable odor mimic by trained detection canines. It was also shown that detection canines could be imprinted on piperonal COMPS and correctly identify ecstasy samples at a threshold level of approximately 100ng/s. Isosafrole and/or MDP-2-POH show potential as training aid mimics for non-piperonal based MDMA. Acetic acid was shown to be dominant in the headspace of heroin samples and verified as a dominant odor in commercial vinegar samples; however, no common, secondary compound was detected in the headspace of either. Because of the similarities detected within respective explosive classes, several compounds were chosen for explosive mimics. A single based smokeless powder with a detectable level of 2,4-dinitrotoluene, a double based smokeless powder with a detectable level of nitroglycerine, 2-ethyl-1-hexanol, DMNB, ethyl centralite and diphenylamine were shown to be accurate mimics for TNT-based explosives, NG-based explosives, plastic explosives, tagged explosives, and smokeless powders, respectively. The combination of these six odors represents a comprehensive explosive odor kit with positive results for imprint on detection canines. As a proof of concept, the chemical compound PFTBA showed promise as a possible universal, non-target odor compound for comparison and calibration of detection canines and instrumentation. In a comparison study of shape versus vibration odor theory, the detection of d-methyl benzoate and methyl benzoate was explored using canine detectors. While results did not overwhelmingly substantiate either theory, shape odor theory provides a better explanation of the canine and human subject responses.

The development of optimized high performance liquid chromatography systems for the analysis of improvised explosives

Existing instrumental techniques must be adaptable to the analysis of novel explosives if science is to keep up with the practices of terrorists and criminals. The focus of this work has been the development of analytical techniques for the analysis of two types of novel explosives: ascorbic acid-based propellants, and improvised mixtures of concentrated hydrogen peroxide/fuel. In recent years, the use of these explosives in improvised explosive devices (IEDs) has increased. It is therefore important to develop methods which permit the identification of the nature of the original explosive from post-blast residues. Ascorbic acid-based propellants are low explosives which employ an ascorbic acid fuel source with a nitrate/perchlorate oxidizer. A method which utilized ion chromatography with indirect photometric detection was optimized for the analysis of intact propellants. Post-burn and post-blast residues if these propellants were analyzed. It was determined that the ascorbic acid fuel and nitrate oxidizer could be detected in intact propellants, as well as in the post-burn and post-blast residues. Degradation products of the nitrate and perchlorate oxidizers were also detected. With a quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometer (QToFMS), exact mass measurements are possible. When an HPLC instrument is coupled to a QToFMS, the combination of retention time with accurate mass measurements, mass spectral fragmentation information, and isotopic abundance patterns allows for the unequivocal identification of a target analyte. An optimized HPLC-ESI-QToFMS method was applied to the analysis of ascorbic acid-based propellants. Exact mass measurements were collected for the fuel and oxidizer anions, and their degradation products. Ascorbic acid was detected in the intact samples and half of the propellants subjected to open burning; the intact fuel molecule was not detected in any of the post-blast residue. Two methods were optimized for the analysis of trace levels of hydrogen peroxide: HPLC with fluorescence detection (HPLC-FD), and HPLC with electrochemical detection (HPLC-ED). Both techniques were extremely selective for hydrogen peroxide. Both methods were applied to the analysis of post-blast debris from improvised mixtures of concentrated hydrogen peroxide/fuel; hydrogen peroxide was detected on variety of substrates. Hydrogen peroxide was detected in the post-blast residues of the improvised explosives TATP and HMTD.

A Markov chain location-allocation meta-model for hurricane relief

An emergency is a deviation from a planned course of events that endangers people, properties, or the environment. It can be described as an unexpected event that causes economic damage, destruction, and human suffering. When a disaster happens, Emergency Managers are expected to have a response plan to most likely disaster scenarios. Unlike earthquakes and terrorist attacks, a hurricane response plan can be activated ahead of time, since a hurricane is predicted at least five days before it makes landfall. This research looked into the logistics aspects of the problem, in an attempt to develop a hurricane relief distribution network model. We addressed the problem of how to efficiently and effectively deliver basic relief goods to victims of a hurricane disaster. Specifically, where to preposition State Staging Areas (SSA), which Points of Distributions (PODs) to activate, and the allocation of commodities to each POD. Previous research has addressed several of these issues, but not with the incorporation of the random behavior of the hurricane's intensity and path. This research presents a stochastic meta-model that deals with the location of SSAs and the allocation of commodities. The novelty of the model is that it treats the strength and path of the hurricane as stochastic processes, and models them as Discrete Markov Chains. The demand is also treated as stochastic parameter because it depends on the stochastic behavior of the hurricane. However, for the meta-model, the demand is an input that is determined using Hazards United States (HAZUS), a software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that estimates losses due to hurricanes and floods. A solution heuristic has been developed based on simulated annealing. Since the meta-model is a multi-objective problem, the heuristic is a multi-objective simulated annealing (MOSA), in which the initial solution and the cooling rate were determined via a Design of Experiments. The experiment showed that the initial temperature (T0) is irrelevant, but temperature reduction (δ) must be very gradual. Assessment of the meta-model indicates that the Markov Chains performed as well or better than forecasts made by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Tests of the MOSA showed that it provides solutions in an efficient manner. Thus, an illustrative example shows that the meta-model is practical.

Experimental determination of effects of water depth on Nymphaea odorata growth, morphology and biomass allocation

Growth, morphology and biomass allocation in response to water depth was studied in white water lily,Nymphaea odorata Aiton. Plants were grown for 13 months in 30, 60 and 90 cm water in outdoor mesocosms in southern Florida. Water lily plant growth was distinctly seasonal with plants at all water levels producing more and larger leaves and more flowers in the warmer months. Plants in 30 cm water produced more but smaller and shorter-lived leaves than plants at 60 cm and 90 cm water levels. Although plants did not differ significantly in total biomass at harvest, plants in deeper water had significantly greater biomass allocated to leaves and roots, while plants in 30 cm water had significantly greater biomass allocated to rhizomes. Although lamina area and petiole length increased significantly with water level, lamina specific weight did not differ among water levels. Petiole specific weight increased significantly with increasing water level, implying a greater cost to tethering the larger laminae in deeper water. Lamina length and width scaled similarly at different water levels and modeled lamina area (LA) accurately (LAmodeled = 0.98LAmeasured + 3.96, R2 = 0.99). Lamina area was highly correlated with lamina weight (LW = 8.43LA − 66.78, R2 = 0.93), so simple linear measurements can predict water lily lamina area and lamina weight. These relationships were used to calculate monthly lamina surface area in the mesocosms. Plants in 30 cm water had lower total photosynthetic surface area than plants in 60 cm and 90 cm water levels throughout, and in the summer plants in 90 cm water showed a great increase in photosynthetic surface area as compared to plants in shallower water. These results support setting Everglades restoration water depth targets for sloughs at depths ≥45 cm and suggest that in the summer optimal growth for white water lilies occurs at depths ≥75 cm.

Tip Allocation: A Compliance Study tor Restaurants

Survey research of the commercial food service industry with regard to tips and tip allocation revealed that 50 percent of restaurateurs require that employees report a minimum amount or percentage of sales and over 50 percent which allocate tips report them as employee income. The authors discuss these results and point out other problems.