Modelagem Fuzzy para previsão de uma série temporal de energia elétrica.

Esta dissertação testa e compara dois tipos de modelagem para previsão de uma mesma série temporal. Foi observada uma série temporal de distribuição de energia elétrica e, como estudo de caso, optou-se pela região metropolitana do Estado da Bahia. Foram testadas as combinações de três variáveis exógenas em cada modelo: a quantidade de clientes ligados na rede de distribuição de energia elétrica, a temperatura ambiente e a precipitação de chuvas. O modelo linear de previsão de séries temporais utilizado foi um SARIMAX. A modelagem de inteligência computacional utilizada para a previsão da série temporal foi um sistema de Inferência Fuzzy. Na busca de um melhor desempenho, foram feitos testes de quais variáveis exógenas melhor influenciam no comportamento da energia distribuída em cada modelo. Segundo a avaliação dos testes, o sistema Fuzzy de previsão foi o que obteve o menor erro. Porém dentre os menores erros, os resultados dos testes também indicaram diferentes variáveis exógenas para cada modelo de previsão.

Estimativa de fontes externas uniformes de nêutrons em regiões combustíveis para uma distribuição prescrita de potência

Projetos de reatores nucleares foram classificados em quatro gerações (Gen) pelo Departamento de Energia dos Estados Unidos da América (DOE), quando o DOE introduziu o conceito de reatores de geração IV (Gen IV). Reatores Gen IV são um conjunto de projetos de reator nuclear, em sua maioria teóricos, atualmente sendo pesquisados. Entre os projetos Gen IV, incluem-se os projetos dos ADS (Accelerator Driven Systems), que são sistemas subcríticos estabilizados por fontes externas estacionárias de nêutrons. Estas fontes externas de nêutrons são normalmente geradas a partir da colisão de prótons com alta energia contra os núcleos de metais pesados presentes no núcleo do reator, fenômeno que é conhecido na literatura como spallation, e os prótons são acelerados num acelerador de partículas que é alimentado com parte da energia gerada pelo reator. A criticalidade de um sistema mantido por reações de fissão em cadeia depende do balanço entre a produção de nêutrons por fissão e a remoção por fuga pelos contornos e absorção de nêutrons. Um sistema está subcrítico quando a remoção por fuga e absorção ultrapassa a produção por fissão e, portanto, tende ao desligamento. Entretanto, qualquer sistema subcrítico pode ser estabilizado pela inclusão de fontes estacionárias de nêutrons em seu interior. O objetivo central deste trabalho é determinar as intensidades dessas fontes uniformes e isotrópicas de nêutrons, que se deve inserir em todas as regiões combustíveis do sistema, para que o mesmo estabilize-se gerando uma distribuição prescrita de potência elétrica. Diante do exposto, foi desenvolvido neste trabalho um aplicativo computacional em linguagem Java que estima as intensidades dessas fontes estacionárias de nêutrons, que devem ser inseridas em cada região combustível para que estabilizem o sistema subcrítico com uma dada distribuição de potência definida pelo usuário. Para atingir este objetivo, o modelo matemático adotado foi a equação unidimensional de transporte de nêutrons monoenergéticos na formulação de ordenadas discretas (SN) e o convencional método de malha fina diamond difference (DD) foi utilizado para resolver numericamente os problemas SN físicos e adjuntos. Resultados numéricos para dois problemas-modelos típicos são apresentados para ilustrar a acurácia e eficiência da metodologia proposta.

Hydraulics for small fishing trawlers

Fishing vessels where electric power supply from alternator is available to operate various auxiliaries located anywhere in the vessel, the small crafts, which constitute over 95% of the total fishing crafts operating in India, are entirely dependent on one source of power, i. e. the main diesel engine. To utilize this source of motive power to operate the winches and other auxiliaries, mechanical drive involving shafts, bearings and pulleys, is inconvenient. This paper presents basic advantages of hydraulic system over mechanical drive.

Fault tolerant flight control - A survey

Nowadays, control systems are involved in nearly all aspects of our lives. They are all around us, but their presence is not always really apparent. They are in our kitchens, in our DVD-players, computers and our cars. They are found in elevators, ships, aircraft and spacecraft. Control systems are present in every industry, they are used to control chemical reactors, distillation columns, and nuclear power plants. They are constantly and inexhaustibly working, making our life more comfortable and more efficient...until the system fails. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Modern challenges facing turbomachinery aeroacoustics

In this review we describe current scientific and technological issues in the quest to reduce aeroengine noise, in the face of predicted rapid increases in the volume of air traffic, on the one hand, and increasingly strict environmental regulation, on the other. Alongside conventional ducted turbofan designs, new open-rotor contra-rotating power plants are currently under development, which present their own noise challenges. The key sources of tonal and broadband noise, and the way in which noise propagates away from the source, are surveyed in both cases. We also consider in detail two key aspects underpinning the flow physics that continue to receive considerable attention, namely the acoustics of swirling flow and unsteady flow-blade interactions. Finally, we describe possible innovations in open-rotor engine design for low noise.

Experimental study on an SFCL using series-connected YBCO thin films

Superconducting Fault Current Limiters (SFCLs) are able to reduce fault currents to an acceptable value, reducing potential mechanical and thermal damage and allowing more flexibility in an electric power system's design. Due to limitations in current YBCO thin film manufacturing techniques, it is necessary to connect a number of thin films in different series and parallel configurations in order to realise a practical SFCL for electric power system applications. The amount of resistance generated (i.e. the degree of current limitation), the characteristics of the S-N transition, and the time at which they operate is different depending on their comparative characteristics. However, it is desirable for series-connected thin films to have an operating time difference as small as possible to avoid placing an excess burden on certain thin films. The role of a parallel resistance, along with the influence of thin film characteristics, such as critical current (Ic), are discussed in regards to the design of SFCLs using YBCO thin films. © 2008 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Sensitivity analysis and optimization of the nuclear fuel cycle

A sensitivity study has been conducted to assess the robustness of the conclusions presented in the MIT Fuel Cycle Study. The Once Through Cycle (OTC) is considered as the base-line case, while advanced technologies with fuel recycling characterize the alternative fuel cycles. The options include limited recycling in LWRs and full recycling in fast reactors and in high conversion LWRs. Fast reactor technologies studied include both oxide and metal fueled reactors. The analysis allowed optimization of the fast reactor conversion ratio with respect to desired fuel cycle performance characteristics. The following parameters were found to significantly affect the performance of recycling technologies and their penetration over time: Capacity Factors of the fuel cycle facilities, Spent Fuel Cooling Time, Thermal Reprocessing Introduction Date, and incore and Out-of-core TRU Inventory Requirements for recycling technology. An optimization scheme of the nuclear fuel cycle is proposed. Optimization criteria and metrics of interest for different stakeholders in the fuel cycle (economics, waste management, environmental impact, etc.) are utilized for two different optimization techniques (linear and stochastic). Preliminary results covering single and multi-variable and single and multi-objective optimization demonstrate the viability of the optimization scheme.

Dynamic modelling of the brushless doubly fed machine

A coupled-circuit model for the brushless doubly fed machine (BDFM) has been developed. The transformation of the model into the d-q axis form, ultimately in a synchronous reference frame in which machine currents and voltages have constant values in the steady state, has been carried out. A model-reduction technique is presented, which gives a concise representation of the 'nested-loop' rotor design using a single d-q pair. These models have been experimentally verified and give a convenient and accurate way of calculating the dynamic behaviour of a BDFM. The ability to represent the BDFM with a single d-q pair considerably simplifies the design of suitable controllers. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

Low voltage ride-through of DFIG and brushless DFIG: Similarities and differences

The brushless doubly fed induction generator (BDFIG) has been proposed as a viable alternative in wind turbines to the commonly used doubly fed induction generator (DFIG). The BDFIG retains the benefits of the DFIG, i.e. variable speed operation with a partially rated converter, but without the use of brush gear and slip rings, thereby conferring enhanced reliability. As low voltage ride-through (LVRT) performance of the DFIG-based wind turbine is well understood, this paper aims to analyze LVRT behavior of the BDFIG-based wind turbine in a similar way. In order to achieve this goal, the equivalence between their two-axis model parameters is investigated. The variation of flux linkages, back-EMFs and currents of both types of generator are elaborated during three phase voltage dips. Moreover, the structural differences between the two generators, which lead to different equivalent parameters and hence different LVRT capabilities, are investigated. The analytical results are verified via time-domain simulations for medium size wind turbine generators as well as experimental results of a voltage dip on a prototype 250 kVA BDFIG. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Noise and vibration in brushless doubly fed machine and brushless doubly fed reluctance machine

This study investigates modes of vibration in brushless doubly fed machine and brushless doubly fed reluctance machine due to the interaction of its fundamental magnetic fields, via the bending forces they set up in the back iron. It is shown that the presence of two field components of different pole numbers leads to vibration components in addition to those that would be expected in single field machines such as the induction motor. Formulations for the frequencies and magnitudes of the expected vibration components are given and verified experimentally. It is shown that the strength of the vibration components is highly dependent on the choice of pole numbers in the machine, with some much worse than equivalent induction machines and some very similar. The methodology presented enables designers to determine whether their machines are likely to suffer from vibration problems in advance of construction, and to apply remedies where appropriate. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2014.

Unsteady numerical study of wet steam flow in a low pressure steam turbine

In steam power plants condensation already starts in the flow path of the low pressure part of the steam turbine, which leads to a complex three-dimensional two-phase flow. Wetness losses are caused due to thermodynamic and mechanical relaxation processes during condensation and droplet transport. The present investigation focuses on the unsteady effects due to rotor-stator interaction on the droplet formation process. Results of unsteady three dimensional flow simulations of a two-stage steam turbine are presented, whereby this is the first time that non-equilibrium condensation is considered in such simulations. The numerical approach is based on RANS equations, which are extended by a wet steam specific nucleation and droplet growth model. Despite the use of a high performance cluster the unsteady simulation has a considerably high simulation time of approximately 60 days by use of 48 CPUs. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012.