Impact on perinatal mortality of missed opportunities to treat maternal syphilis in rural South Africa: baseline results from a clinic randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE To demonstrate the impact on perinatal mortality of inadequate treatment for maternal syphilis despite adequate screening. METHOD In 12 clinics providing antenatal care in Hlabisa, South Africa 1783 pregnant women were screened for syphilis at their first antenatal visit between June and October 1998. Pregnancy outcome was determined among those with syphilis. RESULTS A total of 158 women were diagnosed with syphilis: prevalence 9% (95% CI 8-10%). Mean gestation at first antenatal visit was 24 weeks. Thirty women (19%) received no treatment and 96 (61%) received all three recommended doses of penicillin. Among those receiving at least one dose, mean delay to the first dose was 20 days. Among those fully treated mean delay to treatment completion was 34 days. Pregnancy outcome was known for 142 women (90%) and there were 17 perinatal deaths among 15 women (11%). Eleven of 43 women (26%) who received one or fewer doses of penicillin experienced ii perinatal death whilst only four of 99 women (4%) who received two or more doses of penicillin did so (P = 0.0001). Protection from perinatal death increased with the number of doses of penicillin: linear modelling suggests that one dose reduced the risk by 41%, two doses by 65% and three doses by 79%, compared with no doses. A dose-specific, categorical model confirmed reduction in risk by 79% for all three doses. CONCLUSION Despite effective screening, many pregnant women with syphilis remain inadequately treated, resulting in avoidable perinatal mortality. Delays in starting and finishing treatment, as well as incomplete treatment occur. Near-patient syphilis testing in the antenatal clinic with early treatment could improve treatment of syphilis and reduce perinatal mortality, and a randomized trial to test this is underway.

Projecting mammographic screens

Objective-The purpose of mammographic screening is to reduce mortality from breast cancer. This study describes a method for projecting the number of screens to be performed by a mammographic screening programme, and applies this method in the context of New South Wales, Australia. Method-The total number of mammographic screens was projected as the sum of initial screens and re-screens, and is based on projections of the population, rates of new recruitment, rates of attrition within the programme, and the mix of screening intervals. The baseline scenario involved: 70% participation of women aged 50-69 years, 90% return rate for the second and subsequent re-screens, 5% annual screens (95% biennial screens), and a specified population projection. The results were assessed with respect to variations in these assumptions. Results-The projections were strongly influenced by: the rate of screening of the target age group; the proportion of women re-screened annually; and the rates of attrition within the programme. Although demographic change had a notable effect, there was little difference between different population projections. Standard assumptions about attrition within the programme suggest that the current target participation rates in NSW may not be achieved in the long term. Conclusions-A practical model for projecting mammographic screens for populations is described which is capable of forecasting the number of screens under different scenarios. Implications-Projections of mammographic screens provide important information for the planning and financing of equipment and personnel, and for testing the effects of variations in important operational parameters. Re-screening attrition is an important contributor to screening viability.

The role of economic evaluation in mental health care

Objective: A consequence of the integration of psychiatry into acute and public health medicine is that psychiatrists are being asked to evaluate their services. There is pressure on mental health-care systems because it is recognized that funds should be directed where they can provide the best health outcomes, and also because there are resource constraints which limit our capacity to meet all demands for health care. This pressure can be responded to by evaluation which demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of psychiatric treatment. This paper seeks to remind psychiatrists of the fundamental principles of economic evaluation in the hope that these will enable psychiatrists to understand the methods used in evaluation and to work comfortably with evaluators. Method: The paper reviews the basic principles behind economic evaluation, illustrating these with reference to case studies. It describes: (i) the cost of the burden of illness and treatment, and how these costs are measured; (ii) the measurement of treatment outcomes, both as changes in health status and as resources saved; and (iii) the various types of economic evaluation, including cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness, cost-utility and cost-benefit analysis. Results: The advice in the paper provides psychiatrists with the necessary background to work closely with evaluators. A checklist of the critical questions to be addressed is provided as a guide for those undertaking economic evaluations. Conclusions: If psychiatrists are willing to learn the basic principles of economic evaluation and to apply these, they can respond to the challenges of evaluation.

Cervical screening in migrants to Australia

Objective: To examine differentials and time trends in self-reported Pap test rates by migrant status from the 1989/90 and 1995 Australian National Health Surveys (NHS). Method: Unit record data for females with the variables of interest were extracted from the 1989/90 and 1995 NHS and combined. The dichotomous outcome variables were 'ever had a Pap test and 'had a Pap test within three years'. The principal study factor was country-of-birth, but language spoken at home (English or not) was also examined. The indirect age-standardised screening ratio was used to calculate proportions of 'ever had a Pap test' and 'had a Pap test within three years' and differences were tested statistically using logistic regression analysis for each year of survey by migrant status. Results: Odds ratios for rates of reporting 'ever had a Pap test' were significantly lower in women born in southern Europe, Italy, other countries, southern Asia, Middle East, Greece and South-East Asia compared with Australian-born. Reported rates of 'ever had a Pap test' were significantly higher in the 1995 NHS (p

A method for setting the size of plant conservation target areas

Realistic time frames in which management decisions are made often preclude the completion of the detailed analyses necessary for conservation planning. Under these circumstances, efficient alternatives may assist in approximating the results of more thorough studies that require extensive resources and time. We outline a set of concepts and formulas that may be used in lieu of detailed population viability analyses and habitat modeling exercises to estimate the protected areas required to provide desirable conservation outcomes for a suite of threatened plant species. We used expert judgment of parameters and assessment of a population size that results in a specified quasiextinction risk based on simple dynamic models The area required to support a population of this size is adjusted to take into account deterministic and stochastic human influences, including small-scale disturbance deterministic trends such as habitat loss, and changes in population density through processes such as predation and competition. We set targets for different disturbance regimes and geographic regions. We applied our methods to Banksia cuneata, Boronia keysii, and Parsonsia dorrigoensis, resulting in target areas for conservation of 1102, 733, and 1084 ha, respectively. These results provide guidance on target areas and priorities for conservation strategies.

Passive smoking and lung cancer: a cumulative meta-analysis

Objective: To review the epidemiological evidence for the association between passive smoking and lung cancer. Method: Primary studies and meta-analyses examining the relationship between passive smoking and lung cancer were identified through a computerised literature search of Medline and Embase, secondary references, and experts in the field of passive smoking. Primary studies meeting the inclusion criteria were meta-analysed. Results From 1981 to the end of 1999 there have been 76 primary epidemiological studies of passive smoking and lung cancer, and 20 meta-analyses. There were 43 primary studies that met the inclusion criteria for this meta-analysis; more studies than previous assessments. The pooled relative risk (RR) for never-smoking women exposed to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) from spouses, compared with unexposed never-smoking women was 1.29 (95% CI 1.17-1.43). Sequential cumulative meta-analysed results for each year from 1981 were calculated: since 1992 the RR has been greater than 1.25. For Western industrialised countries the RR for never-smoking women exposed to ETS compared with unexposed never-smoking women, was 1.21 (95% CI 1.10-1.33). Previously published international spousal meta-analyses have all produced statistically significant RRs greater than 1.17. Conclusions The abundance of evidence in this paper, and the consistency of findings across domestic and workplace primary studies, dosimetric extrapolations and meta-analyses, clearly indicates that non-smokers exposed to ETS are at increased risk of lung cancer. Implications: The recommended public health policy is for a total ban on smoking in enclosed public places and work sites.

Gender differences in the relationship between depression and suicidal ideation in young adolescents

Objective: This study examined the risk relationship between depressive symptomatology and suicidal ideation for young adolescent males and females. Method: A large cohort of students in their first year of high school completed the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and the Adolescent Suicide Questionnaire. The risk relationship between depressive symptomatology and suicidal ideation was modelled using non-parametric kernel-smoothing techniques. Results: Suicidal ideation was more frequently reported by females compared with males which was partly explained by females having higher mean depression scores. At moderate levels of depression females also had a significantly higher risk of suicidal ideation compared with males and this increased risk contributed to the overall higher levels of female ideation. Conclusions: The risk relationship between depressive symptomatology and suicidal ideation is different for young adolescent males and females. The results indicate that moderate levels of depressive symptomatology can be associated with suicidal ideation (especially among young females) and that for these young people a suicide risk assessment is required.

Determining complicated winding patterns for shim coils using stream functions and the target-field method

In a magnetic resonance imaging equipment, gradient and shim coils are needed to produce a spatially varying magnetic field throughout the sample being imaged. Such coils consist of turns of wire wound on the surface of a cylindrical tube. Shim coils in particular, must sometimes be designed to produce complicated magnetic fields to correct for impurities. Streamline patterns for shim coils are much more complicated than those for gradient coils, In this work we present a detailed analysis of streamline methods and their application to shim coil design, A method is presented for determining the winding patterns to generate these complicated fields. (C) 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

A method for the design of MRI radiofrequency coils based on triangular and pulse basis functions

This paper presents a numerical technique for the design of an RF coil for asymmetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) systems. The formulation is based on an inverse approach where the cylindrical surface currents are expressed in terms of a combination of sub-domain basis functions: triangular and pulse functions. With the homogeneous transverse magnetic field specified in a spherical region, a functional method is applied to obtain the unknown current coefficients. The current distribution is then transformed to a conductor pattern by use of a stream function technique. Preliminary MR images acquired using a prototype RF coil are presented and validate the design method. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

NMR shim coil design utilising a rapid spherical harmonic calculation method

A rapid spherical harmonic calculation method is used for the design of Nuclear Magnetic Resonance shim coils. The aim is to design each shim such that it generates a field described purely by a single spherical harmonic. By applying simulated annealing techniques, coil arrangements are produced through the optimal positioning of current-carrying circular arc conductors of rectangular cross-section. This involves minimizing the undesirable harmonies in relation to a target harmonic. The design method is flexible enough to be applied for the production of coil arrangements that generate fields consisting significantly of either zonal or tesseral harmonics. Results are presented for several coil designs which generate tesseral harmonics of degree one.

An economic evaluation of plasma production via erythroplasmapheresis and whole blood collection

This paper presents cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of plasma collection via two alternative methods: whole blood collection (WBC) and erythroplasmapheresis collection (EPC). The objective of the study is to provide an answer to the question 'What is the least-cost method of plasma production'. This question is answered, both from the viewpoint of the blood collection agency (using financial CEA) and from that of 'society' as a whole (using economic CEA). We employ detailed financial data and economic survey data for collections made by a blood collection agency and to WBC and EPC donors in Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that, despite the superior yield provided by EPC, WBC is actually more cost-effective. This result is robust to thorough sensitivity analysis and arises regardless of whether an economic or financial perspective is taken. We conclude that, ceteris paribus, the cost of recruiting new plasma donors would need to be quite substantial for marginal investments in EPC to be considered cost-effective. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is your vision consistent? A method for checking, based on scenario concepts

Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization`s vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.