Variation of a test's sensitivity and specificity with disease prevalence

BACKGROUND Anecdotal evidence suggests that the sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test may vary with disease prevalence. Our objective was to investigate the associations between disease prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity using studies of diagnostic accuracy. METHODS We used data from 23 meta-analyses, each of which included 10-39 studies (416 total). The median prevalence per review ranged from 1% to 77%. We evaluated the effects of prevalence on sensitivity and specificity using a bivariate random-effects model for each meta-analysis, with prevalence as a covariate. We estimated the overall effect of prevalence by pooling the effects using the inverse variance method. RESULTS Within a given review, a change in prevalence from the lowest to highest value resulted in a corresponding change in sensitivity or specificity from 0 to 40 percentage points. This effect was statistically significant (p < 0.05) for either sensitivity or specificity in 8 meta-analyses (35%). Overall, specificity tended to be lower with higher disease prevalence; there was no such systematic effect for sensitivity. INTERPRETATION The sensitivity and specificity of a test often vary with disease prevalence; this effect is likely to be the result of mechanisms, such as patient spectrum, that affect prevalence, sensitivity and specificity. Because it may be difficult to identify such mechanisms, clinicians should use prevalence as a guide when selecting studies that most closely match their situation.

Chondrocytes expressing intracellular collagen type II enter the cell cycle and co-express collagen type I in monolayer culture.

For autologous chondrocyte transplantation, articular chondrocytes are harvested from cartilage tissue and expanded in vitro in monolayer culture. We aimed to characterize with a cellular resolution the synthesis of collagen type II (COL2) and collagen type I (COL1) during expansion in order to further understand why these cells lose the potential to form cartilage tissue when re-introduced into a microenvironment that supports chondrogenesis. During expansion for six passages, levels of transcripts encoding COL2 decreased to <0.1%, whereas transcript levels encoding COL1 increased 370-fold as compared to primary chondrocytes. Flow cytometry for intracellular proteins revealed that chondrocytes acquired a COL2/COL1-double positive phenotype during expansion, and the COL2 positive cells were able to enter the cell cycle. While the fraction of COL2 positive cells decreased from 70% to <2% in primary chondrocytes to passage six cells, the fraction of COL1 positive cells increased from <1% to >95%. In parallel to the decrease of the fraction of COL2 positive cells, the cells' potential to form cartilage-like tissue in pellet cultures steadily decreased. Intracellular staining for COL2 enables for characterization of chondrocyte lineage cells in more detail with a cellular resolution, and it may allow predicting the effectiveness of expanded chondrocytes to form cartilage-like tissue.

Sex-related differences in access to care among patients with premature acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND Access to care may be implicated in disparities between men and women in death after acute coronary syndrome, especially among younger adults. We aimed to assess sex-related differences in access to care among patients with premature acute coronary syndrome and to identify clinical and gender-related determinants of access to care. METHODS We studied 1123 patients (18-55 yr) admitted to hospital for acute coronary syndrome and enrolled in the GENESIS-PRAXY cohort study. Outcome measures were door-to-electrocardiography, door-to-needle and door-to-balloon times, as well as proportions of patients undergoing cardiac catheterization, reperfusion or nonprimary percutaneous coronary intervention. We performed univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses to identify clinical and gender-related determinants of timely procedures and use of invasive procedures. RESULTS Women were less likely than men to receive care within benchmark times for electrocardiography (≤ 10 min: 29% v. 38%, p = 0.02) or fibrinolysis (≤ 30 min: 32% v. 57%, p = 0.01). Women with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (MI) were less likely than men to undergo reperfusion therapy (primary percutaneous coronary intervention or fibrinolysis) (83% v. 91%, p = 0.01), and women with non-ST-segment elevation MI or unstable angina were less likely to undergo nonprimary percutaneous coronary intervention (48% v. 66%, p < 0.001). Clinical determinants of poorer access to care included anxiety, increased number of risk factors and absence of chest pain. Gender-related determinants included feminine traits of personality and responsibility for housework. INTERPRETATION Among younger adults with acute coronary syndrome, women and men had different access to care. Moreover, fewer than half of men and women with ST-segment elevation MI received timely primary coronary intervention. Our results also highlight that men and women with no chest pain and those with anxiety, several traditional risk factors and feminine personality traits were at particularly increased risk of poorer access to care.

Safety and efficacy of imatinib in CML over a period of 10 years: data from the randomized CML-study IV.

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) have changed the natural course of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). With the advent of second-generation TKI safety and efficacy issues have gained interest. The randomized CML - Study IV was used for a long-term evaluation of imatinib (IM). 1503 patients have received IM, 1379 IM monotherapy. After a median observation of 7.1 years, 965 patients (64%) still received IM. At 10 years, progression-free survival was 82%, overall survival 84%, 59% achieved MR(5), 72% MR(4.5), 81% MR(4), 89% major molecular remission and 92% MR(2) (molecular equivalent to complete cytogenetic remission). All response levels were reached faster with IM800 mg except MR(5). Eight-year probabilities of adverse drug reactions (ADR) were 76%, of grades 3-4 22%, of non-hematologic 73%, and of hematologic 28%. More ADR were observed with IM800 mg and IM400 mg plus interferon α (IFN). Most patients had their first ADR early with decreasing frequency later on. No new late toxicity was observed. ADR to IM are frequent, but mostly mild and manageable, also with IM 800 mg and IM 400 mg+IFN. The deep molecular response rates indicate that most patients are candidates for IM discontinuation. After 10 years, IM continues to be an excellent initial choice for most patients with CML.Leukemia advance online publication, 13 March 2015; doi:10.1038/leu.2015.36.

Defence on demand: mechanisms behind optimal defence patterns

Background The optimal defence hypothesis (ODH) predicts that tissues that contribute most to a plant's fitness and have the highest probability of being attacked will be the parts best defended against biotic threats, including herbivores. In general, young sink tissues and reproductive structures show stronger induced defence responses after attack from pathogens and herbivores and contain higher basal levels of specialized defensive metabolites than other plant parts. However, the underlying physiological mechanisms responsible for these developmentally regulated defence patterns remain unknown. Scope This review summarizes current knowledge about optimal defence patterns in above- and below-ground plant tissues, including information on basal and induced defence metabolite accumulation, defensive structures and their regulation by jasmonic acid (JA). Physiological regulations underlying developmental differences of tissues with contrasting defence patterns are highlighted, with a special focus on the role of classical plant growth hormones, including auxins, cytokinins, gibberellins and brassinosteroids, and their interactions with the JA pathway. By synthesizing recent findings about the dual roles of these growth hormones in plant development and defence responses, this review aims to provide a framework for new discoveries on the molecular basis of patterns predicted by the ODH. Conclusions Almost four decades after its formulation, we are just beginning to understand the underlying molecular mechanisms responsible for the patterns of defence allocation predicted by the ODH. A requirement for future advances will be to understand how developmental and defence processes are integrated.

Distinctive insular forms of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from western Mediterranean islands

Neutral and adaptive variation among populations within a species is a major component of biological diversity and may be pronounced among insular populations due to geographical isolation and island specific evolutionary forces at work. Detecting and preserving potential evolutionary significant units below the species rank has become a crucial task for conservation biology. Combining genetic, phenotypic and ecological data, we investigated evolutionary patterns among the enigmatic threespine stickleback populations from western Mediterranean islands, all of which are threatened by habitat deterioration and climate change. We find indications that these populations derive from different genetic lineages, being genetically highly distinct from the stickleback of mainland Europe and the northern Atlantic as well as from each other. Mediterranean island stickleback populations are also phenotypically distinct from mainland populations but interestingly stickleback from Iceland have converged on a similar phenotype. This distinctive island stickleback phenotype seems to be driven by distinct selective regimes on islands versus continents. Overall, our results reveal the status of western Mediterranean island stickleback as evolutionarily distinct units, important for conservation of biodiversity.

Genetic analysis of white facial and leg markings in the Swiss Franches-Montagnes Horse Breed

White markings and spotting patterns in animal species are thought to be a result of the domestication process. They often serve for the identification of individuals but sometimes are accompanied by complex pathological syndromes. In the Swiss Franches-Montagnes horse population, white markings increased vastly in size and occurrence during the past 30 years, although the breeding goal demands a horse with as little depigmented areas as possible. In order to improve selection and avoid more excessive depigmentation on the population level, we estimated population parameters and breeding values for white head and anterior and posterior leg markings. Heritabilities and genetic correlations for the traits were high (h(2) > 0.5). A strong positive correlation was found between the chestnut allele at the melanocortin-1-receptor gene locus and the extent of white markings. Segregation analysis revealed that our data fit best to a model including a polygenic effect and a biallelic locus with a dominant-recessive mode of inheritance. The recessive allele was found to be the white trait-increasing allele. Multilocus linkage disequilibrium analysis allowed the mapping of the putative major locus to a chromosomal region on ECA3q harboring the KIT gene.

Chromosomal assignment of the canine melanophilin gene (MLPH): a candidate gene for coat color dilution in Pinschers

Pinschers affected by coat color dilution show a specific pigmentation phenotype. The dilute pigmentation phenotype leads to a silver-blue appearance of the eumelanin-containing fur and a pale sandy color of pheomelanin-containing fur. In Pinscher breeding, dilute black-and-tan dogs are called "blue," and dilute red or brown animals are termed "fawn" or "Isabella fawn." Coat color dilution in Pinschers is sometimes accompanied by hair loss and a recurrent infection of the hair follicles. In human and mice, several well-characterized genes are responsible for similar pigment variations. To investigate the genetic cause of the coat color dilution in Pinschers, we isolated BAC clones containing the canine ortholog of the known murine color dilution gene Mlph. RH mapping of the canine MLPH gene was performed using an STS marker derived from BAC sequences. Additionally, one MLPH BAC clone was used as probe for FISH mapping, and the canine MLPH gene was assigned to CFA25q24.

Updated Next-to-Next-to-Leading-Order QCD Predictions for the Weak Radiative B -Meson Decays

Weak radiative decays of the B mesons belong to the most important flavor changing processes that provide constraints on physics at the TeV scale. In the derivation of such constraints, accurate standard model predictions for the inclusive branching ratios play a crucial role. In the current Letter we present an update of these predictions, incorporating all our results for the O(α2s) and lower-order perturbative corrections that have been calculated after 2006. New estimates of nonperturbative effects are taken into account, too. For the CP- and isospin-averaged branching ratios, we find Bsγ=(3.36±0.23)×10−4 and Bdγ=(1.73+0.12−0.22)×10−5, for Eγ>1.6  GeV. Both results remain in agreement with the current experimental averages. Normalizing their sum to the inclusive semileptonic branching ratio, we obtain Rγ≡(Bsγ+Bdγ)/Bcℓν=(3.31±0.22)×10−3. A new bound from Bsγ on the charged Higgs boson mass in the two-Higgs-doublet-model II reads MH±>480  GeV at 95% C.L.

Home-based versus clinic-based specimen collection in the management of Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections

BACKGROUND Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) are the most frequent causes of bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Management strategies that reduce losses in the clinical pathway from infection to cure might improve STI control and reduce complications resulting from lack of, or inadequate, treatment. OBJECTIVES To assess the effectiveness and safety of home-based specimen collection as part of the management strategy for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections compared with clinic-based specimen collection in sexually-active people. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Sexually Transmitted Infections Group Specialized Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE and LILACS on 27 May 2015, together with the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry (ICTRP) and ClinicalTrials.gov. We also handsearched conference proceedings, contacted trial authors and reviewed the reference lists of retrieved studies. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of home-based compared with clinic-based specimen collection in the management of C. trachomatis and N. gonorrhoeae infections. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Three review authors independently assessed trials for inclusion, extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We contacted study authors for additional information. We resolved any disagreements through consensus. We used standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane. The primary outcome was index case management, defined as the number of participants tested, diagnosed and treated, if test positive. MAIN RESULTS Ten trials involving 10,479 participants were included. There was inconclusive evidence of an effect on the proportion of participants with index case management (defined as individuals tested, diagnosed and treated for CT or NG, or both) in the group with home-based (45/778, 5.8%) compared with clinic-based (51/788, 6.5%) specimen collection (risk ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60 to 1.29; 3 trials, I² = 0%, 1566 participants, moderate quality). Harms of home-based specimen collection were not evaluated in any trial. All 10 trials compared the proportions of individuals tested. The results for the proportion of participants completing testing had high heterogeneity (I² = 100%) and were not pooled. We could not combine data from individual studies looking at the number of participants tested because the proportions varied widely across the studies, ranging from 30% to 96% in home group and 6% to 97% in clinic group (low-quality evidence). The number of participants with positive test was lower in the home-based specimen collection group (240/2074, 11.6%) compared with the clinic-based group (179/967, 18.5%) (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.86; 9 trials, I² = 0%, 3041 participants, moderate quality). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS Home-based specimen collection could result in similar levels of index case management for CT or NG infection when compared with clinic-based specimen collection. Increases in the proportion of individuals tested as a result of home-based, compared with clinic-based, specimen collection are offset by a lower proportion of positive results. The harms of home-based specimen collection compared with clinic-based specimen collection have not been evaluated. Future RCTs to assess the effectiveness of home-based specimen collection should be designed to measure biological outcomes of STI case management, such as proportion of participants with negative tests for the relevant STI at follow-up.

Valence and agency influence striatal response to feedback in patients with major depressive disorder

BACKGROUND: Reduced sensitivity to positive feedback is common in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). However, findings regarding negative feedback are ambiguous, with both exaggerated and blunted responses being reported. The ventral striatum (VS) plays a major role in processing valenced feedback, and previous imaging studies have shown that the locus of controls (self agency v. external agency) over the outcome influences VS response to feedback. We investigated whether attributing the outcome to one's own action or to an external agent influences feedback processing in patients with MDD. We hypothesized that depressed participants would be less sensitive to the feedback attribution reflected by an altered VS response to self-attributed gains and losses. METHODS: Using functional MRI and a motion prediction task, we investigated the neural responses to self-attributed (SA) and externally attributed (EA) monetary gains and losses in unmedicated patients with MDD and healthy controls. RESULTS: We included 21 patients and 25 controls in our study. Consistent with our prediction, healthy controls showed a VS response influenced by feedback valence and attribution, whereas in depressed patients striatal activity was modulated by valence but was insensitive to attribution. This attribution insensitivity led to an altered ventral putamen response for SA - EA losses in patients with MDD compared with healthy controls. LIMITATIONS: Depressed patients with comorbid anxiety disorder were included. CONCLUSION: These results suggest an altered assignment of motivational salience to SA losses in patients with MDD. Altered striatal response to SA negative events may reinforce the belief of not being in control of negative outcomes contributing to a cycle of learned helplessness.

Do clinicians understand the size of treatment effects? A randomized survey across 8 countries.

BACKGROUND Meta-analyses of continuous outcomes typically provide enough information for decision-makers to evaluate the extent to which chance can explain apparent differences between interventions. The interpretation of the magnitude of these differences - from trivial to large - can, however, be challenging. We investigated clinicians' understanding and perceptions of usefulness of 6 statistical formats for presenting continuous outcomes from meta-analyses (standardized mean difference, minimal important difference units, mean difference in natural units, ratio of means, relative risk and risk difference). METHODS We invited 610 staff and trainees in internal medicine and family medicine programs in 8 countries to participate. Paper-based, self-administered questionnaires presented summary estimates of hypothetical interventions versus placebo for chronic pain. The estimates showed either a small or a large effect for each of the 6 statistical formats for presenting continuous outcomes. Questions addressed participants' understanding of the magnitude of treatment effects and their perception of the usefulness of the presentation format. We randomly assigned participants 1 of 4 versions of the questionnaire, each with a different effect size (large or small) and presentation order for the 6 formats (1 to 6, or 6 to 1). RESULTS Overall, 531 (87.0%) of the clinicians responded. Respondents best understood risk difference, followed by relative risk and ratio of means. Similarly, they perceived the dichotomous presentation of continuous outcomes (relative risk and risk difference) to be most useful. Presenting results as a standardized mean difference, the longest standing and most widely used approach, was poorly understood and perceived as least useful. INTERPRETATION None of the presentation formats were well understood or perceived as extremely useful. Clinicians best understood the dichotomous presentations of continuous outcomes and perceived them to be the most useful. Further initiatives to help clinicians better grasp the magnitude of the treatment effect are needed.